GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Tri-Color Brian]

59 minutes ago, comicjack said:

You better wipe them down 

I wipe down the mailers and the comic bags...

[I am not Glenda]

Truth is.................... nobody here has a clue as to what is going to happen in terms of the hobby. However, I think most of us would agree it's rational to think that until we have a better idea of how long this crisis lasts on a global level will really dictate what the impact is on this and most hobbies for the next few cycles. Most people in my neck of the woods ( southern NJ) seem to still feel like this is just a few week pause and they will all be on the Jersey shore by June 15th with a Corona in hand  I personally suspect that this is not the case ( I hope I am wrong).  IMHO thus far we have seen really great leadership from some state governors while some still seem to be acting very slow to acknowledge this threat is very real & until we all get on the same page this is not going away anytime soon.  Just looking at the situation world wide I can not see some of the very poor nation in South American & Mexico etc being able to contain this virus for quite some time ( do we even have any solid data on what's happening in our back yard yet?) Regardless, does anyone here really think we will ever be able to keep everyone out ? So really until we have a vaccine ( best case 6-12 months) but more likely 14-16 months based on what I have read it's going to be a long haul for our hobby getting back to where it was just a few weeks/months ago. For example my neighbor lost 208k in 12 days in the market & is putting off his planned retirement ( he is currently selling his coin collection on evilbay)  So for the near future ( cash will be king ). Really right now we are all flying/buying in the dark as past data is not worth the site it's posted on. A great deal today may be a bad deal in 30 days or a super short term score! I would suggest keeping anything you love or that can not be easily replaced & then hold on because we are all going on a crazy ride in 2020/2021.  PS remember they are just funny books on cheap paper, be safe, be smart. LIVE LONG AND PROSPER.

Edited March 23, 2020 by I am not Glenda

[rjpb]

I have no idea how things might change in the next couple of months, but if my ebay activity this weekend was any indication, GA buyers aren't slowing down.

[manofsteel]

16 hours ago, rjpb said:

I have no idea how things might change in the next couple of months, but if my ebay activity this weekend was any indication, GA buyers aren't slowing down.

I agree 100% with this. Nothing I've been watching on CL, HA or ebay have gone for any kind of a deal. 

Adding: In fact, most have gone for more than they were a few months ago. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by manofsteel

[Tri-Color Brian]

I just bought another GA book on ebay today...and the buyer accepted my offer of $40 for his $55 book...which was way underpriced to begin with.  I love sellers who don't know how to list a book so everyone can find it...

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I just bought another GA book on ebay today...and the buyer accepted my offer of $40 for his $55 book...which was way underpriced to begin with.  I love sellers who don't know how to list a book so everyone can find it...

I think all GA/SA collectors should test the "waters" but not just on e-bay. You might want to be aggressive and contact dealers, especially ones that mainly sell at conventions as well as have a small presence of a website or none at all. A phone call is all it is and even if your offer is rejected...you might get a phone call down the road, especially if things take longer to recover than anticipated "saying you got a deal". If an offered is presented right, I do not think it would be considered an insult...it just depends how you frame it.  I would say that I am still the market and have limited funds and I am available to purchase items if you make the decision today or in the future. I would always leave the door open, especially on GA that you have been looking for a long time.

[Tri-Color Brian]

43 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

I think all GA/SA collectors should test the "waters" but not just on e-bay. You might want to be aggressive and contact dealers, especially ones that mainly sell at conventions as well as have a small presence of a website or none at all. A phone call is all it is and even if your offer is rejected...you might get a phone call down the road, especially if things take longer to recover than anticipated "saying you got a deal". If an offered is presented right, I do not think it would be considered an insult...it just depends how you frame it.  I would say that I am still the market and have limited funds and I am available to purchase items if you make the decision today or in the future. I would always leave the door open, especially on GA that you have been looking for a long time.

Great advice Mitch...

[Mmehdy]

I read Mile High comics newsletter once in while..here is the headline

 NEW COMIC DISTRIBUTION ENDS

 TO highlight chuck's points.." our world of comics profoundly changed today, perhaps forever.....all shipping of new comics had ended as we received a letter from Diamond where this temporary publishing shutdown taking place in a healthy market I would have no concerns... 87 years of... Modern comics has been in failing health for years and even if 20% of the comic books shops cannot reopen after the pandemic restrictions are lifted and (have diamond resume shipments). Both ATT(DC) and Disney(marvel) are in dangerous financial stress right now and expecting them to allocate precious resources to restoring print publishings  is simply not logical. "

Then he claims to have anticipated this eventuality for over a decade...etc etc etc.

 My thoughts: I view the world as glass of wine half full and Chuck seems to view the wine as half empty. I do not have my head in the sand and will admit that projects will be canceled, books never published and stores that will never recover and reopen. Chuck seems to think we will never come back 100%..I disagree we have a chance.

 If every board member would buy one GA related book per week from Bud Plant or Amazon or most importantly from a local comic book store when they reopen we can make a difference. I see a LOT of great reprint material coming especially from Marvel/Timely and DC that I was looking forward to. Hopefully postponed not canceled.

 If you are like me and and buy GA/SA reprint volumes and read them, then we as those collectors should be concerned.

Anybody else wish to chime in on this?

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Mmehdy

[bluechip]

On 3/22/2020 at 8:28 PM, lou_fine said:

 

 

I actually live right next door to a family that came back from China about a month ago and they simply can't believe how lackadaisical the North American approach is to containing the virus as it is compared to China. 

The example they set was out in the open with videos on youtube of people wearings masks, having their temps taken before going into stores, etc.  I had a trip to Europe planned and was considering every day whether to cancel it.   Ultimately decided to go ahead but first I stocked up with N95 masks, hand sanitizer, gloves, even goggles (in case they discovered it was airborne).  Kept a mask on during an entire trans-continental flight because a guy behind me was coughing.  Went to events, parties, and the like packed with people from all over the world (except China) and wore no masks but washed my hands constantly.  Didn't catch anything, and now that I'm back home everyplace I went is on lockdown, including my home.   Wearing masks all the time here when I shop or whatever, and seeing hardly anyone else is wearing them mostly because they're unavailable.   If I hadn't obsessed about the virus a month before most people here, I wouldn't have the stash of masks, sanitizer etc. but feeling bad wondering whether some health professionals might have gotten the stuff if I hadn't bought it.

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by bluechip

[batman_fan]

Looking at prices on the current Clink auction, prices don't appear to be tanking.

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Looking at prices on the current Clink auction, prices don't appear to be tanking.

I do not see a "flash" crash in GA/SA market more of gradual decline of unknown time and depth. But if experts are right, and here in Calif today all homeowners were given 90 days "holiday"( with BA 30 but unlimited as crisis continued) on their mortages. This means that the time period for the beginning of the  recovery is projected out for about 3 months from now not years. I don't think you will see an immediate "tank" of the GA/SA market, real estate etc.

Of course if this crisis continues  beyond the three months banks will increase that "holiday". Where I see the crumbing is especially on this HA/CC/CL auctions were people might have the ability to pay up and we can hope they will be flexible with those buyers and allow time payment, which means a lot potential resubmissions added to the mile high pile of persons needing to sell. GA prices are a combination of supply/demand..when we have a potential oversupply then prices will decline Also comic book stores who were on the edge of profitiablty being the most likely not to return. There are unfortunately of a number of GA/more SA collectors who lives or collections could be lost/sold whole or part to this economic/virus  crisis. I do not see anything near a total collapse of the GA/SA market or a sudden 30% overnight drop in all GA/SA value in day or week. Things are gonna happen slowly and over time in this circumstance.

The weakest link is the comic book store owner who has a whole host of expenses just keeping the door open. If you know a comic book store in your area, you might want to contact the owners directly and let me know1-if any GA walks in the door give a call and I will give you a 10/20% finder fee, so there is no carrying costs or risk for an already overstretched store owner. Second, you can contact the store and with great care let the owner know that you would be in the market for any GA if priced right, meaning any existing inventory especially when they just reopen or possible sale of existing stock if they do not intend to reopen.The second, would be the "circuit" comic book dealer who relies on shows, old customers etc. They might need some start up money to get back on the convention train again.

 I am hopeful that some of these comic con ticket prices will come down to earth, and that these conventions will get less "side show"  and more actual comic book dealers and get the shows back to comics not showbiz.

 So, this could turn out OK..for everybody...Lower GA prices, more customer appreciation from your local store, lower new comic book cover prices, cheaper comic book cons costs and accommodations for hotels, food etc, and a tighter more focused comic book collector.

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Mmehdy

[atomised]

I actually wish the big three of HA, clink and cc would slightly slow down the auction cadence this year.  There's just too much inventory offered at auction at this time.

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Looking at prices on the current Clink auction, prices don't appear to be tanking.

Although it looks like most of these books would be from the SA and BA, here's a post from a Comics General thread which kept track of about 80 books so far:

On 3/24/2020 at 7:24 PM, DavidTheDavid said:

Curious? Here's a look at select auction results. Knowing me, I won't keep this up, but hey, not like I have much else to do right now. Except work. And parent.

I no longer use GPA, so my comparison for FMV is from GoCollect. Generally, I selected books that were likely to land over $1,000, were exceptional copies, or which trade frequently. If someone wants to add GPA data, DM me. I'd be curious to see that column added. For the Gold lots in ComicLink, GoCo won't have much information, but I may record the hammers anyhow.

Anyhow: the data.

From the linked data spreadsheet, it would appear that there is a definite downward drift in prices based upon what I am looking at.  

Doesn't appear to be any compariosns in there for GA books as far as I can tell.  

Edited March 26, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, atomised said:

I actually wish the big three of HA, clink and cc would slightly slow down the auction cadence this year.  There's just too much inventory offered at auction at this time.

Looks like your wish came true as CC is not having their usual March Event Auction this year.  

Nothing to do with Covid-19 though, as it was much more due to the big screwed up job done on the revamping of their website.  

[Axmen]

29 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Looks like your wish came true as CC is not having their usual March Event Auction this year.  

Nothing to do with Covid-19 though, as it was much more due to the big screwed up job done on the revamping of their website.  

I was wondering what the hell is going on with their

site - doesnt even look like they have auctions anymore. super goofy

[Joshua33]

On 3/15/2020 at 9:48 AM, Mmehdy said:

I just have to disagree with your premise that in 2 months the virus will be in the rear view mirror. The summer should slow it down...but if it is like any other virus it is going to come roaring back in the winter. Until there is a vaccine there is no end in sight. A interesting news story appeared today in which a gentlemen who got the virus and beat it with tow test confirmations  and was declared virus free...got it again...very troubling unless its a freak case. There might be no reason to panic but in reality no one can predict where we are headed this time.

 It is not the virus itself that we should really fear, its the collateral damage it inflicts which makes vulnerable countries subject to depression, for example chinas 10 year government jacked up real estate market which the government has supported. If that was to collapse then it like dominos for everybody else. My hedge fund friend is killing it in the market...remember they hedge. His estimation is 14,000-145000 as bottom which make it similar to 2009's 56% drop. That would be very bad for everybody and GA comic book values will not be immune.

Even if we have a vaccine...good luck distributing and making it for billions of people in two months....I am hoping this mess ends and a recovery happens within 12 months.

GA comic book values will decline sharply if you have to sell while we are in the middle of this crisis. GPA data means nothing because of the unique nature of this virus and crisis How does diamond deliver new material to comic book stores which cannot open as well as comic book conventions and attendance at auctions for anytime of collectable not just GA/SA. I do agree however, that after we get used to a change of lifestyle that panic should be reduced.I guess we are gonna have to get used to the fact they we are all gonna get it and life goes on.

On your comment regarding people saying what is gonna happen and advising them to do different things...I think you have to separate facts from opinion. The hard part is agreeing on the facts...LOL We are in a panic with no end in sight, if we get a vaccine then we will have an end in sight..but then a time issue  arises of making and distributing it to the entire world. Plain and simple it is just gonna take time and  my  estimate of 12 months of restoration of value to worldwide stock market price is based upon prior models and is quite conservative. 

 My point of this thread was to provide some guidance as to how to navigate you GA/SA comic book collection whether you are buying, selling, or consigning during this crisis. I hope, based upon your comments, mixed messages. So as to clarify as to what I feel would be the best way to survive and continue to be a true comic book collector lets not forget the past.

1-GA/SA collecto/investor who is in for the long run-the only thing that counts is the day you bought it and the day you sell it. Long run I feel good about top quality GA/SA and if you can afford to hold it that might be the best way to go here..any opinions?

2-GA/SA collector who needs to sell part of his collection to pay bills or support family. Comic conventions are out, same with comic book stores, I would probably go thru an auction house who has a international presence such as to get the most people aware of the book.Otherwise you might be able to secure a loan from a comic book dealer if some enterprising dealer might think of a new way to help collectors etc..What do you think...any ideas?

3-GA/SA needs to sell entire collection.....any ideas?

 I remind you that Japan in early August of 1945  they had two A bombs dropped, Fire bombing from B-52's and the Russians  declared war and finally attacked the Japanse all in the same month. Look at the recoverey....look at what there people had to overcome...pretty amazing . We will win...in the long run... we are not gonna lose 75 MILLION people to genocide, disease, starvation, and mass bombings like WW2. We will beat this thing and comeback even stronger.

 

Your hedge buddy still on that 14k market kick?

[Mmehdy]

2 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

Your hedge buddy still on that 14k market kick?

I called him for you.

Yes. my hedge guy says the current market is a "false bottom"...whatever that means...He is sticking to his 14,500 and he adds if the market goes below 12,800 which would be below the 2008 decline that we will officially be in long term depression.He also indicated that this market sell-off  was the fastest in history, exceeding even the great depression. It could happen again, even faster the next time.

 

A long term depression would have serious GA market repercussions . Again it would be in my opinion a slower rate of decline that the stock market but we would get there, the decline would exceed 50% of prior virus value before the recovery would be on the upswing again.. In that case the weaker books would become the hardest hit., 

1-ungraded restored GA will get hit the hardest

2 unrestored Low ungraded GA, especially with tape, rusty staples,and poor page quality is next.

3-Ungraded GA and CGC graded restored.

4-CGC low graded unrestored with pieces out,tape, bad staples , pages or cover not attached , and low paper quality.

5- CGC Mid grade unrestored

6 CGC high grade unrestored, Grail books, and very rare GA.

If buying to make your collection better I would reverse the above and buy all you can at the bottom of this crisis. That would be the most effective way in which you could better your GA collection, there will be better deals at the top the list for collector buying with an eye getting trading material for future deals. I would have a different buying approach if I were a collector/dealer or just a comic book dealer.

We are in uncharted waters in the middle of a fog....all we need is a little bit of light...and we will find the direction to get out...it is gonna happen and when we do look out.....

Edited March 26, 2020 by Mmehdy

[manofsteel]

13 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Looks like your wish came true as CC is not having their usual March Event Auction this year.  

Nothing to do with Covid-19 though, as it was much more due to the big screwed up job done on the revamping of their website.  

Right. They said their auction will go from the end of April till mid May. 

If anyone has any GA Superman books for sale, and they want to sell before the sky falls, please PM me. I'll give 60% of the value. 

Edited March 26, 2020 by manofsteel

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

I called him for you.

Yes. my hedge guy says the current market is a "false bottom"...whatever that means...He is sticking to his 14,500 and he adds if the market goes below 12,800 which would be below the 2008 decline that we will officially be in long term depression.He also indicated that this market sell-off  was the fastest in history, exceeding even the great depression. It could happen again, even faster the next time.

 

A long term depression would have serious GA market repercussions . Again it would be in my opinion a slower rate of decline that the stock market but we would get there, the decline would exceed 50% of prior virus value before the recovery would be on the upswing again.. In that case the weaker books would become the hardest hit., 

1-ungraded restored GA will get hit the hardest

2 unrestored Low ungraded GA, especially with tape, rusty staples,and poor page quality is next.

3-Ungraded GA and CGC graded restored.

4-CGC low graded unrestored with pieces out,tape, bad staples , pages or cover not attached , and low paper quality.

5- CGC Mid grade unrestored

6 CGC high grade unrestored, Grail books, and very rare GA.

If buying to make your collection better I would reverse the above and buy all you can at the bottom of this crisis. That would be the most effective way in which you could better your GA collection, there will be better deals at the top the list for collector buying with an eye getting trading material for future deals. I would have a different buying approach if I were a collector/dealer or just a comic book dealer.

We are in uncharted waters in the middle of a fog....all we need is a little bit of light...and we will find the direction to get out...it is gonna happen and when we do look out.....

I’m neither Pollyanna-ish nor Chicken Little-ish about the economic tightrope everyone is walking.  The stimulus package is a sugar high for the market, the DOW reality is likely more butt-hurt and a leveling off somewhere between 18K and 20K with slow growth and lots of spin from faux economic gurus making rosier than believable predictions.  Money to shore up the economy is basically the little Dutch boy plugging holes in the dike to slow a flood while villagers move their investments to higher ground.  Regular wage earners are going to take a hit this year as will business (likely for two quarters, possibly three).  Once stabilized, that’s when the real finger pointing and second guessing will occur.

As for the comic markets, this will be a time for readjustment.  Some values will fall, others will rise.  In GA, I expect high grade books of scarcity to either rise precipitously or remain stable.  Some will probably change hands outside of the auction markets.  Mid-grades and more common books are a bit iffier.  The popular titles will probably remain in greatest demand, but expect fluctuation.  Some collectors will view this as a time for reappraising their involvement in the hobby, ...let’s call it an austerity movement... based on family considerations, protecting personal resources, etc.  

Other collectors, including investment “flippers” and longer term speculators, will view this as an opportunity to buy books that are discounted or dumped by skittish collectors fearful of a bigger downturn.  Those skittish folks in the latter category I’ll refer to as “musical chair” collectors who are concerned that they’ll be left holding lower valued books when the music stops ...or rather, recessionary dust settles.  These are the times that try GPA’s soul and have folks looking to Lord Overstreet for guidance.

Mitch, the one thing I’d adjust in your list of speculations is reference to CGC encapsulation.  While we aren’t supposed to endorse or promote the competitor’s business here ...and something I am NOT doing here... we shouldn’t completely ignore the reality of CBCS existence and acknowledge collector patronage of their service in the overall economic scope of things.  Personally, I think books graded by both major third party grading services will have stronger perceived value during and after the crisis.  

Otherwise, I think your observations are fairly astute even if leaning towards a worse case scenario.   

Caveat: These are just my personal opinions informed by observations of current collector attitudes.  Everyone’s mileage will vary and if your outlook happens to be rosier than mine, I’m pulling for your POV all the way.

   

[batman_fan]

I am only tracking 3 GA Batman books for the current CLINK auction.  All 3 are below where I would expect the final hammer to land but they are getting close to where I would expect them to land.  If any are bargains, they will be at my home.