GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[batman_fan]

11 minutes ago, Sauce Dog said:

Same, might be far too early for such drops, with people still in a little bit of denial about the severity of the pandemic (and assuming it's going to blow over very soon)....at the same time, with issues that rarely hit the market its hard to tell if it the final bid price took a hit (Such as the Chamber of Chills #23 that wen't for $31,000)

That one really shocked me, $31k was very strong in my humble opinion.

[october]

26 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

That one really shocked me, $31k was very strong in my humble opinion.

I was floored by that price. It's a great book, but there are some nice File Copies out there. 

 

[batman_fan]

3 minutes ago, october said:

I was floored by that price. It's a great book, but there are some nice File Copies out there. 

 

That one is right purty 

[Sauce Dog]

22 minutes ago, october said:

I was floored by that price. It's a great book, but there are some nice File Copies out there. 

 

Yup - in fact I was planning on listing my File Copy but when I found out that one was up for auction I decided to wait until it was over. Mine looks fairly close to the above (much closer to the 9.2 in the auction), but has a major fault with it (Staple rust), but that just makes it the most affordable way to get a copy that looks like a 9.0+   Will be listing it shortly after I hear back from CGC about one question about possibly regrading it (wanted to know if that fault was something a qualifier label would address and allow it to have a more accurate grade number)

Edited March 31, 2020 by Sauce Dog

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

9 minutes ago, Sauce Dog said:

Yup - in fact I was planning on listing my File Copy but when I found out that one was up for auction I decided to wait until it was over. Mine looks fairly close to the above (much closer to the 9.2 in the auction), but has a major fault with it (Staple rust), but that just makes it the most affordable way to get a copy that looks like a 9.0+   Will be listing it shortly after I hear back from CGC about one question about possibly regrading it (wanted to know if that fault was something a qualifier label would address and allow it to have a more accurate grade number)

I think you’ll do better with a 9.0 blue label than a 9.2 qualified

[Sauce Dog]

5 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I think you’ll do better with a 9.0 blue label than a 9.2 qualified

haha, if it was that high a blue I would keep it...but mine is a 4.5 blue due to the staples.

[Mmehdy]

5 hours ago, SuperBird said:

I keep waiting for prices to drop. Hasn't happened yet on anything I usually watch. (doesn't mean it won't, as nobody knows the future)

The price correction will occur over time, our GA is not a daily up and down extremely active stock market with prices changing with the wind every second . The prices most likely to drop the biggest are common Ultra high grade marvels and recent stuff as well as trendy comic books whose prices were pumped up due to comic movie mania.

 Also, as time goes on more collectors will need to cash, again if supply is low the price change should be a very gradual decline and then a positive upswing. But if a number of large GA/SA comic book collections hit the market at the same time, look for oversupply on an already tight spending period in the GA/SA comic book market. That is real issue here..supply.

The last area of comic book collecting to be hit with a downturn will be GA. It is just plain rarer that the other comic books, and especially in good condition, unrestored, good page and staple quality. I think if we consider  the Flipper/Investor they are more likely to own Spiderman 2 than Wonder Woman 47. So I see more stability in GA clearly over SA in the long run over this unknown crisis period. Still the need for cash does not distinguish between GA/SA/Copper collectors.

Our comic book market has gone thru some amazing publicity in terms  of all time record breaking comic book films, comic book convention attendance growth including small regional shows like "terry's" in LA and increased interest in comic book retailers, such as "free comic book day". That focus is going to be redirected  to saving people's lives, creating new jobs, and repairing the damage done to our economy/. So this has to be factored in on future GA/SA prices. Movies theaters are gonna be closed for a very long time and if China is the model for at least the end of the year, same with comic conventions. The comic book stores will be the first to reopen and we just don't know how long it will take to regain 50% of their business, let alone get back to 100%. I am not doom and gloom, I am a realist getting this out to our comic community to deal with it head on, and not make it worse than it really is. We will survive and so will GA comic book collecting. But we are not for a while, gonna have a "Avengers" comic book movie setting a world wide box officer record. We are not gonna have a SDCC this year with 125,000 attendees and every media outlet in the county taking about comic books and related subjects. We are going to have to tough it out alone, and that is ok, for  when times get tough for True comic book collectors, we get tougher. Less speculators  and achieving true responsible  and sustainable value in the GA/SA market will be very beneficial in the long run for all true comic book collectors and their collections. For those who are just here to speculate go back to stocks, bonds, and gold, shorts, longs, and EFT or whatever...we don't need you.

 How we handle the drop and the eventual recovery are equally important for you and I as we are here for the long run. When either buying or selling GA at this time... if buying have a long run hold expectation, be patient for the most opportune time, and be picky. If selling, make a priority on material that you have multiple copies or, low grade or any restored comic books and hold on as long as possible to the books you truly love. Hitting this fear right between the eyes, we are gonna survive. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Mmehdy

[manofsteel]

Mitch, you need a drink.

 

[Mmehdy]

11 minutes ago, manofsteel said:

Mitch, you need a drink.

 

make that a double...LOL

[Mmehdy]

22 minutes ago, szav said:

Tonight's books did pretty much the same as last night.  Had one underperformer but it still went for 3 times what I paid for it raw a year ago so its hard to get too upset.  

All in all still breathing a sigh of relief, and I think that its a good sign that low-mid grade non classic GA still held its own, at least for what I sold. 

That said, I cant disagree with those saying the crash may not be for a few weeks or months yet, who knows.  At least it didn't crash yet...but, I'll admit I only put these books up because I mailed them in 3 months ago.  There is zero chance that I'll be consigning anything for the next year, barring some miraculous vaccine or treatment breakthrough.  I don't need the money bad enough during what seems like a really risky and uncertain time to sell.

And now the wait...crossing my fingers CLink doesn't declare bankruptcy before they take their 45-60 days to send me my money...

that is great news...CONG  and you are wise to "hold" on  for the long run.

Today it appears that Diamond announced that  that it is not paying it vendors this week. That is significant as it appears its customers have not all paid diamond. There could be a vendor revolt and DC or Marvel could go out on their own. This is going to be interesting on how it plays, where it becomes tricky is will new product get log-jammed up, especially new comic books. I buy the GAreprint books at least one or two per month. Mycomicshop has apparently closed due to the Virus which has a pretty big presence on the web selling part of GA/SA etc. This normal going into a shut down...how they come back is what counts. One less avenue to sell or trade GA now however.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

3 hours ago, manofsteel said:

Mitch, you need a drink.

 

make that a double...LOL

Come on, you guys..................Mitch is trying to talk down the market so that he can hopefully snap up some bargain basment deals here.  

No harm and no foul here, as long as he's not going after the same bargain basement deals that I want to pick up on the cheap in these upcoming auctions.    

[fifties]

2 hours ago, szav said:

There is zero chance that I'll be consigning anything for the next year, barring some miraculous vaccine or treatment breakthrough.  I don't need the money bad enough during what seems like a really risky and uncertain time to sell.

 

Indeed.  So any pipe dreams that a plethora of Golden Age comic books are going to be flooding the market anytime soon, causing the supply to increase and resultant values to decline, is folly.  Of course there will be sporadic and occasional offerings, but as the exception, not the rule.  At least in my view.

[tabcom]

On 3/30/2020 at 12:39 PM, Sauce Dog said:

It is also might not necessarily be the financial need to liquidate collections being the reason for many books hitting the market, but boredom.

This was my motivation to run a sale within this very forum. I sold many items at fair market value. I plan to add more, out of boredom.

[jimbo_7071]

4 hours ago, fifties said:

Indeed.  So any pipe dreams that a plethora of Golden Age comic books are going to be flooding the market anytime soon, causing the supply to increase and resultant values to decline, is folly.  Of course there will be sporadic and occasional offerings, but as the exception, not the rule.  At least in my view.

The supply of highly desirable material may decrease initially because most people will let go of their best stuff last. Demand will also be down, however. Most books that do sell will be selling at a discount once the dust settles. For every wealthy collector willing to pay 2019 prices in the online auctions, there will be a not-so-wealthy underbidder who won't be there any longer. No-reserve auctions will be much riskier for sellers.

-

No one knows what the long-term impact of the coronavirus will be. Most of the deaths will occur among the elderly and infirm, most of whom are no longer part of the workforce, so at first blush one might expect a rebound within a year or two. However, this pandemic could get into people's psyches and change their spending habits permanently. That could lead to a 1930s-style depression.

[Mmehdy]

8 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

The supply of highly desirable material may decrease initially because most people will let go of their best stuff last. Demand will also be down, however. Most books that do sell will be selling at a discount once the dust settles. For every wealthy collector willing to pay 2019 prices in the online auctions, there will be a not-so-wealthy underbidder who won't be there any longer. No-reserve auctions will be much riskier for sellers.

-

No one knows what the long-term impact of the coronavirus will be. Most of the deaths will occur among the elderly and infirm, most of whom are no longer part of the workforce, so at first blush one might expect a rebound within a year or two. However, this pandemic could get into people's psyches and change their spending habits permanently. That could lead to a 1930s-style depression.

I agree with you that the online auctions especially if they are discontinued for a while and  will have  a "pile up" of consignments will decrease resulting  action prices due to oversupply and lack of demand. If I were selling, I would go to E-Bay and list  immediately as you had the "Ford Motor Company" of E-bay comic book sellers just shut down in MyComicShop and who knows who is gonna be next. Sending GA comic books to Auction houses  to sell at an unknown price at and at a unknown time, and not knowing what you are competing against  in the auction does not make good business sense to me. With our free time, Look over your collection and pull out the weak spots and try to sell or trade up if you can and make you GA collection better and stronger. On the buy side, MyComicShop when it opens, you might be able to pick up some good deals on GA. I would also look at Ha.com "make an offer to the owner"....its an offer. I would look at older sales of GA/SA books as those prices tend to be lower..possible that book you have waited 10 years for is on there, the seller worst case can only  say no or counter offer...Look carefully into also contacting by E-mail Ga/SA dealers and providing them a want list and what you would be wiling to pay.

On you 1930's possible depression mode, I would strongly disagree that this is gonna be a repeat.  The previous depression  lasted 10 years and it took a WWII to get our attention out of that mental and physical downturn. Since that time, everything has increased in s terms of speed in our lives. Instant news means instant positive news on the other side. Worst case in my book is 3 years...one year to beat this thing and two years to recover. I just think we can bounce back much quicker and we have already lived thru one and learned a lot from it. The key is not how long it is gonna be, the key is what it looks like after full recovery. I would see the major issues being that it would hasten comic book print media's life if Diamond was to go down or the comic book distribution model changed significantly. It would be easier for either Marvel or DC to say we are going digital, Like Mad Magazine's slow death. Diamond will be on the other hand never the same with its tight distribution control. Best case 1/3 all comics shops are gone in the next 3 years...lower print runs, less $$$ for Diamond and they are gonna take a hit no matter what. I think it is important for every Ga/SA collector that Major comic book companies continue to print comic books. I don't want out GA/SA to go the way of the 33' records. So we need to watch this carefully as it unfolds. I think people change rather quickly, we tend to forget the bad in the past and have tunnel vision into the future, especially the younger that you are. So, I think we all need to be concerned, and pay close attention to what is going on, but we will come out of this, and I think sooner, rather than later.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Mmehdy

[bluechip]

Don't know if anybody's already explored this view, but if people trend toward doing more things indoors, then all things which can be done or obtained and enjoyed in the germ-free confines of home, may become more popular.  And collecting is one of the things you can do with your money that doesn't require behavior that feels risky in times like this.

[Cat-Man_America]

1 hour ago, Mmehdy said:

I agree with you that the online auctions especially if they are discontinued for a while and  will have  a "pile up" of consignments will decrease resulting  action prices due to oversupply and lack of demand. If I were selling, I would go to E-Bay and list  immediately as you had the "Ford Motor Company" of E-bay comic book sellers just shut down in MyComicShop and who knows who is gonna be next. Sending GA comic books to Auction houses  to sell at an unknown price at and at a unknown time, and not knowing what you are competing against  in the auction does not make good business sense to me. With our free time, Look over your collection and pull out the weak spots and try to sell or trade up if you can and make you GA collection better and stronger. On the buy side, MyComicShop when it opens, you might be able to pick up some good deals on GA. I would also look at Ha.com "make an offer to the owner"....its an offer. I would look at older sales of GA/SA books as those prices tend to be lower..possible that book you have waited 10 years for is on there, the seller worst case can only  say no or counter offer...Look carefully into also contacting by E-mail Ga/SA dealers and providing them a want list and what you would be wiling to pay.

On you 1930's possible depression mode, I would strongly disagree that this is gonna be a repeat.  The previous depression  lasted 10 years and it took a WWII to get our attention out of that mental and physical downturn. Since that time, everything has increased in s terms of speed in our lives. Instant news means instant positive news on the other side. Worst case in my book is 3 years...one year to beat this thing and two years to recover. I just think we can bounce back much quicker and we have already lived thru one and learned a lot from it. The key is not how long it is gonna be, the key is what it looks like after full recovery. I would see the major issues being that it would hasten comic book print media's life if Diamond was to go down or the comic book distribution model changed significantly. It would be easier for either Marvel or DC to say we are going digital, Like Mad Magazine's slow death. Diamond will be on the other hand never the same with its tight distribution control. Best case 1/3 all comics shops are gone in the next 3 years...lower print runs, less $$$ for Diamond and they are gonna take a hit no matter what. I think it is important for every Ga/SA collector that Major comic book companies continue to print comic books. I don't want out GA/SA to go the way of the 33' records. So we need to watch this carefully as it unfolds. I think people change rather quickly, we tend to forget the bad in the past and have tunnel vision into the future, especially the younger that you are. So, I think we all need to be concerned, and pay close attention to what is going on, but we will come out of this, and I think sooner, rather than later.

I’m inclined to agree that the recovery will be on a much shorter time span than the Great Depression.  That said, comic shops don’t have to be tethered to a single source of comic book distribution.  Comics make up less than 50% of what most modern retail comic shop stock.  Comic shops sell, games, hardcover books, action figures, costumes, collector supplies, etc.  Heck, Bedrock City even sells breath mints! Note: It wouldn’t surprise me if Richard started offering cloves of garlic as an option to social distance from Covid-19 and vampires.

If Diamond went belly up, something would take it’s place to meet the demands of physical comic collectors.  If every major goes full digital, then there’ll probably be a rise of new indies producing comics on that quaint paper medium.  While I do see the growth of digital as gradually shifting away from paper, it isn’t a quantum shift and it isn’t likely to disrupt collecting. Generational differences notwithstanding, collecting is in our DNA and paper is still a staple in the collecting world.  

BTW, in the Great Depression, disposable paper products reached their zenith after the dollar tanked.  I’m not suggesting that a 30’s financial equivalent is likely to repeat, but if it did laptops, iPads and iPhones would be costly luxuries for some folks, and electronics require a power source.  That’s why electronic media probably won’t replace print media across the board anytime soon.

In any case, it’ll definitely be interesting watching the changing dynamics as this unfolds.  Great discussion, Mitch. 

[Tri-Color Brian]

I, for one, don't worry about the market...but I am enjoying some little deals here and there for otherwise scarce and pricey books.  My LCS just let go of these on Monday for under guide... They aren't high grade, but I don't need high grade to be happy...

[jimbo_7071]

16 hours ago, bluechip said:

Don't know if anybody's already explored this view, but if people trend toward doing more things indoors, then all things which can be done or obtained and enjoyed in the germ-free confines of home, may become more popular.  And collecting is one of the things you can do with your money that doesn't require behavior that feels risky in times like this.

It could be. Hobby Lobby just re-opened as an "essential business" in areas under lockdown.

-

Here in Michigan, AMC just closed one of their biggest suburban multiplexes. I guess they didn't have high hopes for profitability any time in the near future.

[batman_fan]

50 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

It could be. Hobby Lobby just re-opened as an "essential business" in areas under lockdown.

-

Here in Michigan, AMC just closed one of their biggest suburban multiplexes. I guess they didn't have high hopes for profitability any time in the near future.

From my experience (my company and and some folks at other companies), it is quite easy to get essential status and require people to come in to work.  Company just has to do some basic preventive measures to remove legal liability if someone gets sick, although I haven’t heard it being tested in court yet.