GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[Bookery]

5 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

The world population is supposedly 7.7 billion, so 1% dead would be 77 million dead worldwide.

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Some experts have estimated that 81% of the population will eventually be infected, and the World Health Organization has estimated that the overall death rate for the coronavirus is 3.4%. 7.7*10^9 * 0.81 * 0.034 = 212,000,000 (212 million) dead worldwide. That's more or less in line with the 1918 flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed about 50 million worldwide when the population of the planet was around 1.8—1.9 billion.

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Using the same formula for the US population of roughly 330 million: 3.3*10^8 * 0.81 * 0.034 = 9,088,200, or about 9.1 million dead. That's probably a worst-case scenario. 1% of the US population would be 3.3 million.

The only problem with these worst-case comparisons is that technology, hospitalization, and healthcare have advanced a wee bit in the past 103 years.  Also in 1918 much of the developed world's infrastructure had been destroyed by war, making the spread of the flu (and many other diseases) much more dire.

[Sauce Dog]

9 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

I  got call a call tonight from a 54 year plus comic book collector/Dealer and we had a conversation about the state of the art of the comic book market in this crisis period. He has done it all like me, sold at comic book conventions, owned a store, and is a life long collector.  Here is a few points that he touched on that I would consider important.

1-He believes that Original comic  art has better chance of retaining value due to it's unique one of kind of nature as opposed to comic books which can  have multiple graded and ungraded copies of the same issue.

 

 

 

 

 

#1 is along the lines of how I look at Golden Age books. While not necessarily original comic art, I treat them as an art piece and buy covers that have the best graphic design appeal that could appeal to non-comic collectors solely as art to display. I rarely focus on 'key' issues, which is something dependant on comic fans to be deemed important and valuable. So while there can be multiple copies of certain GA covers out there, it is finding the ones that present the best that is important. An unblemished 2.5 that might have major interior or back cover faults or ever a detached cover (an amazing fault to buy as it knocks the grade down so much while potentially keeping the cover looking amazing) is far more desirable to me than a 5.0 that might have more color breaking on the cover. 

[Mmehdy]

8 hours ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Mitch, I'm a little confused by this statement..."Just 1% of a population would mean 7.7 million dead."

1% of what population?  The U.S?  No....The world?  No....  But if you did mean the entire world, the answer would be 77 million, not 7.7 million.

So, what population are you talking about?

He just said the number and I just wrote it down...7.7 million would be too much...77 million would a disaster and eclipse the 50 million deaths of the Spanish flu when that population was only 1.7 billion at the time.

[Joshua33]

11 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

I  got call a call tonight from a 54 year plus comic book collector/Dealer and we had a conversation about the state of the art of the comic book market in this crisis period. He has done it all like me, sold at comic book conventions, owned a store, and is a life long collector.  Here is a few points that he touched on that I would consider important.

1-He believes that Original comic  art has better chance of retaining value due to it's unique one of kind of nature as opposed to comic books which can  have multiple graded and ungraded copies of the same issue.

2-The comic book store system will be changed forever and it changes every 30 years or distribution  of it anyway. He believes 50% of these stores will close forever by the end of the year. A number of  the comic book dealers income will be decreased by the lack comic books shows, especially the smaller local shows which some local dealers rely upon. If the crisis continues over one year it would be 2/3 of the stores  will be closed forever.

3-His real concern is that the virus will come roaring back next winter and he said historically that more people died in 1919 then 1918 on the second wave.  The third time or wave in 1920 came back stronger than the 1918 because people let their guard down.That is his biggest concern.Who every dies or lives out of this crisis it is pretty much random. 5/10 recidivism rate will prolong full recovery from the economic fallout.

 4-Comic book value is a collective "Zeit-Geist" -which is a common belief system that a group will believe that a comic book "X" is worth "Y". Whatever the size of that group is, and the group maintains its belief of a minimum wholesale value to a comic book...that will will determine the floor of GA/SA retained  market  value. 

5-This virus could be worse than the 1918 virus due to the ability to travel internationally easier and our population is much greater. Just 1% of a population would mean 7.7 million dead.

6-A comic book price implosion in term of groups is gonna be the lack pure comic book investor, a widget buyer...they will slow down or disappear completely. That will eliminate speculative price bubbles in our current GA/SA  comic book market. True collector values should retake the GA/SA  comic book market market with the flipper speculation bubble bursting.

7-The  lower mid grade comic books which are not scarce in any grade, as well as the very high grade books that not scarce will decease in price significantly in this crisis, . Cap 1 A1...maybe 100 books those rules don't apply...

8- The price  decline of Ga/SA will occur gradually over the next few years.

9-There is gonna be a lot stuff offered for sale because there are gonna be a lot of unemployed people  who need cash to SURVIVE. Not just comic books but cars, coins etc and the other items will compete with GA/SA for those dollars.

 

 

 

 

I've got to say, this statement is full of negativity, and outright WILD SPECULATION. I respect the amount of time you've been in the business, but that does not make you Comicstradamus. 

First of all, if you have a solid point, why bring your buddy into it and state his credentials to validate your point? It is a wise man whom seeks council, but this seems more like a weak argument that needs additional validation. 

Secondly, and I know we went around this Bush once, the markets are stabilizing a touch, largely due to financial band aids and COVID numbers declining in regions where its passed its peak

If we have an insane spike in infected people to get to the numbers you're talking, that would be astonishing. According to Worldometers.info there are currently 752,000 cases worldwide. That's a LONG way to go to get to 212,000,000 people dying. 

What if the  FDA is successful in combat against the virus through the mass manufacturing of Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine? What if they are successful in their current efforts to contain the virus by stopping RNA replication by Covid? An RNA virus needs to make more copies of its RNA genome. This means antiviral drugs which block the copying of RNA genomes can potentially fix the problem.

Is there tougher road ahead? Maybe. Probably. I don't know for sure. The point is, I don't think anybody else does either...

Edited March 30, 2020 by Joshua33
Spell

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, Sauce Dog said:

#1 is along the lines of how I look at Golden Age books. While not necessarily original comic art, I treat them as an art piece and buy covers that have the best graphic design appeal that could appeal to non-comic collectors solely as art to display. I rarely focus on 'key' issues, which is something dependant on comic fans to be deemed important and valuable. So while there can be multiple copies of certain GA covers out there, it is finding the ones that present the best that is important. An unblemished 2.5 that might have major interior or back cover faults or ever a detached cover (an amazing fault to buy as it knocks the grade down so much while potentially keeping the cover looking amazing) is far more desirable to me than a 5.0 that might have more color breaking on the cover. 

That is a good point so buying GA in these unusual and tough times we need to be flexible with our buying program to always look for the exception. On buying however a word of caution about buying too early. On another thread, the Ira Levine  complete collection of DC comic books is just the tip of the iceberg as to what is coming. I have talked to 2 non board whale collectors who are off the radar who are contemplating selling their entire collections this year . Now its not that they were planing on keeping their collection forever but that this crisis has sped up their plans to liquidate. It is not just quantity that is coming , it is gonna be quantity. 

[Sauce Dog]

5 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

That is a good point so buying GA in these unusual and tough times we need to be flexible with our buying program to always look for the exception. On buying however a word of caution about buying too early. On another thread, the Ira Levine  complete collection of DC comic books is just the tip of the iceberg as to what is coming. I have talked to 2 non board whale collectors who are off the radar who are contemplating selling their entire collections this year . Now its not that they were planing on keeping their collection forever but that this crisis has sped up their plans to liquidate. It is not just quantity that is coming , it is gonna be quantity. 

It is also might not necessarily be the financial need to liquidate collections being the reason for many books hitting the market, but boredom.

Being isolated inside now with our collections gives many the first time in years to go through and finally list items they have put off, or even just looking through their collections and doing much needed sorting. Curating, photographing, and listing items takes time to do it right - and time is what we all now have in excess until the pandemic clears up.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Sauce Dog

[Mmehdy]

28 minutes ago, Joshua33 said:

I've got to say, this statement is full of negativity, and outright WILD SPECULATION. I respect the amount of time you've been in the business, but that does not make you Comicstradamus. 

First of all, if you have a solid point, why bring your buddy into it and state his credentials to validate your point? It is a wise man whom seeks council, but this seems more like a weak argument that needs additional validation. 

Secondly, and I know we went around this Bush once, the markets are stabilizing a touch, largely due to financial band aids and COVID numbers declining in regions where its passed its peak

If we have an insane spike in infected people to get to the numbers you're talking, that would be astonishing. According to Worldometers.info there are currently 752,000 cases worldwide. That's a LONG way to go to get to 212,000,000 people dying. 

What if the  FDA is successful in combat against the virus through the mass manufacturing of Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine? What if they are successful in their current efforts to contain the virus by stopping RNA replication by Covid? An RNA virus needs to make more copies of its RNA genome. This means antiviral drugs which block the copying of RNA genomes can potentially fix the problem.

Is there tougher road ahead? Maybe. Probably. I don't know for sure. The point is, I don't think anybody else does either...

Let address your comments one at a time.

1-If you had read the entire thread, you will note that my opinion differs from this highly respected lifetime comic book collector/dealer  and this his perspective is important based upon his vast experience in the business and his age on this planet in which he is older than me. It is about respect to elders. I don't know if I would call him a buddy more every time I talk to him I learn something about comic books, original art that I never new and my respect grows.

2-I do not think anybody is gonna be 100% correct, not even my hedge fund friend who is 90%  right all of the time. I agree, but it is not "WILD SPECULATION" either. Tell that to  upcoming 25% of the American people who going to be unemployed. Joshua33...this is IT...this is the real deal, the Spanish virus was so powerful that it help end WW1. We have deal with real possibilities and their outcome ahead of time to reduce the shock wave of their effect on the GA/SA market. Let's deal with, be prepared for it, and get thought it.

3-My post's intention is to take FEAR head on. I am just posting and thinking what every board member is concerned and if we keep it in, it will manifest to be something greater than it really is in reality.

4-How dare you call me "Comicstradamus"....that dude was nuts. And besides he was only right about 50% of the time...I think my odds are better...LOL

5- On the other hand I hope you are 100% right about your take....I just want to go back to the to the good old days, of buying stuff nobody else thinks is valuable and underpriced.

6-I also accept and respect your opinion and post...thank you.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

On 3/28/2020 at 6:35 PM, Mmehdy said:

 However if it comes down to paying you mortgage or car payment and keeping your GA...well it is up to you if you want to give up your place to live or car to drive.  I have talked to my late grandparents who lived thru the depression.  The safest investment is gonna be real estate that  you can sustain by renting or having the cash to keep it, as they said that people have to have a place to live, a farm is also a good thing to own since you can eat off the land.

Mitch;

Greatly appreciate your long and well-thought out posts in this thread here.  

For most long time GA collectors, my thinking is that they would already have their house and cars paid off by now.  Especially when most people tend to buy and pay off their necessities before they would even contemplate spending any money on luxury or fun items like GA comic books for their collections.  To these long time collectors, it's all about the comic books themselves.  

Now, if you are referring to the CGC generation of flippers and speculators, that's definitely a completely different story.  The feeling I get is that most of these guys tend to gravitate much more towards the later and non-GA segment of the marketplace where books are much more readily available for them to play the CPR game.  Especially since this part of the market is all about the big number on the top left hand corner of the slab, and less about the actual book that is inside the slab.  To these kinds of speculators and flippers, it's all about the money and the comic books are just the avenue or tool being used to acquire it.  

Edited March 30, 2020 by lou_fine

[jimbo_7071]

3 hours ago, Bookery said:

The only problem with these worst-case comparisons is that technology, hospitalization, and healthcare have advanced a wee bit in the past 103 years.  Also in 1918 much of the developed world's infrastructure had been destroyed by war, making the spread of the flu (and many other diseases) much more dire.

Well, the numbers weren't based on the 1918 info. The death rate was calculated from what's been documented for this particular virus, and the projected percent infected came from mathematical models based on the estimated R value for this virus, how that R value will decrease as some people acquire immunity, etc.

-

In 1918, many people lived in very rural areas and may have escaped exposure. Few people today will have that advantage.

[Bookery]

24 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

Well, the numbers weren't based on the 1918 info. The death rate was calculated from what's been documented for this particular virus, and the projected percent infected came from mathematical models based on the estimated R value for this virus, how that R value will decrease as some people acquire immunity, etc.

In 1918, many people lived in very rural areas and may have escaped exposure. Few people today will have that advantage.

I probably shouldn't risk this, because no matter how carefully I try to state it, someone (not meaning you, specifically) will accuse me of trying to minimize things.  I'm concerned, my family's concerned... the situation is bad, period.  But we also tend to be overwhelmed by the numbers that flash across the TV, often without context.

155,000 Americans die every month from disease (including 3900 per month from flu-pneumonia).

14,000 die every month from accidents.

3900 die every month from suicide.

Corvid-19 has killed 2800 over 2 months to date... but this number is heavily weighed toward just this past month, and is still growing, obviously.

It seems possible if not more than likely this rate will at some point surpass suicide and the flu.  Beyond that, nobody really knows.

But a 1% mortality rate in the U.S. as has been speculated, would mean 275,000 deaths per month from this single disease.  That would make it by far the deadliest anything mankind has encountered in the modern era.  That seems, at least at this point, to be a really pessimistic stretch.   We should hopefully have some mitigating treatments by summer to aid survival rates, and in about a year should have one or more vaccines. 

At any rate, all we can do is what we're doing.  My business is shut down, so my only contact with the outside world is grocery shopping... and I've kept that to a minimum... 3 or 4 trips since all this began.  My likelihood of getting the virus is still (so far) pretty small.  The odds of losing a 36-year old business in the next couple of months are considerably higher.  We all have to worry about what we have in front of us day by day, and that is ever-fluid.  But for the moment, I will choose to be skeptical of computer models that show this to be potentially the deadliest thing that could happen to this planet this side of an asteroid strike.

[jimbo_7071]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Mitch;

Greatly appreciate your long and well-thought out posts in this thread here.  

For most long time GA collectors, my thinking is that they would already have their house and cars paid off by now.  Especially when most people tend to buy and pay off their necessities before they would even contemplate spending any money on luxury or fun items like GA comic books for their collections.  To these long time collectors, it's all about the comic books themselves.  

Now, if you are referring to the CGC generation of flippers and speculators, that's definitely a completely different story.  The feeling I get is that most of these guys tend to gravitate much more towards the later and non-GA segment of the marketplace where books are much more readily available for them to play the CPR game.  Especially since this part of the market is all about the big number on the top left hand corner of the slab, and less about the actual book that is inside the slab.  To these kinds of speculators and flippers, it's all about the money and the comic books are just the avenue or tool being used to acquire it.  

What do you call a long-time collector?  I started collecting GA books when I was still in elementary school (circa 1985). My car was paid off about 11 years ago, but my house is nowhere close.

Edited March 30, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[Mmehdy]

17 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

What do you call a long-time collector?  I started GA books when I was still in elementary school (circa 1985). My car was paid off about 11 years ago, but my house is nowhere close.

I believe my first GA comic book was Superman #76 for 5 dollars which was lot of money back then, in 1966 or 1965.. Certainly  you qualify as a long term collector from 1985, probably anyone who has lasted more than a decade should be in the club. Ranking of would be 60's,70's,80'90's etc. Our timeline reading between the lines in Calif is 5/30/20 best guess so everybody hang in there.

 

[Cat-Man_America]

2 hours ago, Joshua33 said:

I've got to say, this statement is full of negativity, and outright WILD SPECULATION. I respect the amount of time you've been in the business, but that does not make you Comicstradamus. 

First of all, if you have a solid point, why bring your buddy into it and state his credentials to validate your point? It is a wise man whom seeks council, but this seems more like a weak argument that needs additional validation. 

Secondly, and I know we went around this Bush once, the markets are stabilizing a touch, largely due to financial band aids and COVID numbers declining in regions where its passed its peak

If we have an insane spike in infected people to get to the numbers you're talking, that would be astonishing. According to Worldometers.info there are currently 752,000 cases worldwide. That's a LONG way to go to get to 212,000,000 people dying. 

What if the  FDA is successful in combat against the virus through the mass manufacturing of Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine? What if they are successful in their current efforts to contain the virus by stopping RNA replication by Covid? An RNA virus needs to make more copies of its RNA genome. This means antiviral drugs which block the copying of RNA genomes can potentially fix the problem.

Is there tougher road ahead? Maybe. Probably. I don't know for sure. The point is, I don't think anybody else does either...

Think I’m gonna trademark the name Nostalgiadramas since that one hasn’t been snagged yet.  What do you think?

Mitch’s arguments were more discussion points and his buddy Theo is a very knowledgeable collector/dealer who prefers remaining in the background to getting into public debates over market fluctuations.  That said, I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be averse to taking advantage of honest business opportunities arising from an economic crisis.  I don’t begrudge him that, do you?

The numbers of coronavirus are deceiving as only a small percentage of the world’s population has been tested.  I tend to agree with those forecasts suggesting the percentage of deaths to those who’ve been infected with the virus are too high, only because those who self-resolve may never be tested.  Their numbers will never be known with or without an accurate anti-body test.  Keep in mind that some of those infected with the virus have mild to non-existent symptoms.  

Risk of spreading to those many millions who have some kind of compromised system or age related limitation in fighting the disease off is the real issue here.  Those folks may constitute as much as 20% of the population ...and that’s purely a “guesstimate” that’s probably on the low side.  Hospital care is incapable of dealing with those numbers. It’s those folks who require immediate long term protection, at least until an anti-viral inoculation is devised (even fast tracked we’re talking at least 6 months to a year away).

Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine may have potential, but these are anecdotal treatments.  FDA approval is premature and will result in massive pharmaceutical price gauging.  The irresponsible promotion of two drugs as a potentially effective treatment for critical patients is designed to calm public fears, not as a cure.  The word “potentially” is what troubles me here.  Without lab testing and trials how would anyone know these anecdotal drugs work on active coronavirus patients better than placebo? How can this be justified when those same drugs which work effectively on specific diseases as prescribed are now unavailable to patients who depended on them for a lifeline?

Food for thought.

The tougher road ahead involves individuals adjusting to more isolation, businesses adjusting to belt tightening and trust in scientific research that an anti-viral inoculation will eventually be proven effective against Corvid-19.  But there is a lesson to be learned from this on reasonable preparedness for future pandemics since the economic costs increase dramatically from playing catch-up.

This isn’t a prediction from the Comicstradamus, Comicadonis (Theo?) or your’s truly.  But if blame is desired you can say these musings originated with Nostalgiadramas, ...tongue suppressor firmly planted in cheek.  From my perspective, we should be looking at everything happening on a global scale and closer to home in the present ...as unemotionally as possible... from a clear, pragmatic, common sense perspective.  Economically, collectors will probably be better off than nervous speculators who constantly flip books.  Those speculators who do best will take a longer view.

[Midas79]

Indeed. 

[lou_fine]

43 minutes ago, Cat-Man_America said:

But there is a lesson to be learned from this on reasonable preparedness for future pandemics since the economic costs increase dramatically from playing catch-up.

Being willing to take big steps right at the front end for the sake of the "public good" is definitely a much smarter play than trying to take progressively baby step after baby step as the crisis worsens.  

Especially when you just take a look at the Taiwan example as compared to Canada since both of these countries were at the same point in terms of total number of cases less than a month ago:  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/taiwan-covid-19-canada-1.5502194

Especially if you look at the more up-to-date stats where Canada is sadly (i.e. in near lockdown mode ) now approaching 7,500 cases  and over 80 deaths, while Taiwan is happily (i.e. business pretty much as per normal ) still lagging far behind with barely touching 300 cases in total and only a small handful of deaths to date.  And that's for a country that's been banned from the WHO and hence took matters into their own hands, and yet surprisingly, were able to keep their body counts down even with direct flights coming right in from the epicenter of Wuhan.    

For us comic book collectors, the saddest part about this whole fiasco is that not only can we not go down to our LCS's right now, but we are not even sure if they will ever be able to open their doors again going forward.    

 

[1950's war comics]

On 3/19/2020 at 11:01 AM, batman_fan said:

Going to be cross posting this.  Just got my winnings today.  No regrets on my end for spending the money.  The piece is spectacular in person.

i love the Charlie Brown baseball related strips... everything from Joe Shlabotnik's bubble gum card  to Snoopy breaking Hank Aaron's record 

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, szav said:

On 3/25/2020 at 7:43 PM, szav said:

I put a dozen or so garbage GA books into the auction...mailed them in like 3 months ago so way before this started.  They're at about half what I initially considered the low end of my expectation with 4-5 days to go.  I'm actually somewhat relieved, thought I might get totally hosed but I'm close to break even on them now.

Garbage books have done surprisingly well.  Had a dozen in the auction and 5 days ago they were sitting at $500...but are up past $1,500 total now and 5 of them don't close till tomorrow.  All in all breathing a big sigh of relief as they're already at what I considered mid range estimate when I submitted them before Christmas. 

Well, that's definitely good news for you and also a positive sign (so far) for GA collectors, especially given these uncertain economic times we are living through nowadays.  

Hopefully, it's still a big thumbs up for the rest of your books and be sure to let us know how it all worked out for you when it's all said and done tomorrow night then.  

If so, Mitch just might have to hold off a bit on his end of the world predictions for the holders of these GA and early SA books.  

[jimbo_7071]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, that's definitely good news for you and also a positive sign (so far) for GA collectors, especially given these uncertain economic times we are living through nowadays.  

Hopefully, it's still a big thumbs up for the rest of your books and be sure to let us know how it all worked out for you when it's all said and done tomorrow night then.  

If so, Mitch just might have to hold off a bit on his end of the world predictions for the holders of these GA and early SA books.  

Even those of us who are expecting a decline in prices didn't expect it to be immediate. The effects on the economy in general and the collectibles market in particular won't be clear for many months. What if a collector owns a buffet-style restaurant? How much will business be down this year? What about a collector who owns a martial arts studio? How many parents will pull their kids out of extracurricular activities? How many people won't buy that new car  because they decided to work  from home permanently? That car salesman who relies on commissions might have to let go of a few items from his collection. The belt tightening will begin in earnest six months or so down the road when people have run out of rainy-day money to spend on comic books. Some people will do just fine, but the supply-and-demand curve is going to shift.

Edited March 31, 2020 by jimbo_7071

[SuperBird]

I keep waiting for prices to drop. Hasn't happened yet on anything I usually watch. (doesn't mean it won't, as nobody knows the future)

[Sauce Dog]

15 minutes ago, SuperBird said:

I keep waiting for prices to drop. Hasn't happened yet on anything I usually watch. (doesn't mean it won't, as nobody knows the future)

Same, might be far too early for such drops, with people still in a little bit of denial about the severity of the pandemic (and assuming it's going to blow over very soon)....at the same time, with issues that rarely hit the market its hard to tell if it the final bid price took a hit (Such as the Chamber of Chills #23 that wen't for $31,000)

Edited March 31, 2020 by Sauce Dog