GA COMIC BOOK Collecting in the Financial crisis of 2020 3 3

[lou_fine]

On 3/19/2020 at 6:48 AM, skybolt said:

On 3/19/2020 at 6:41 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

It depends on what you collect. I have many GA books that would be hard to replace in the same grade, so I'm not about to sell them. If I were a SA Marvel collector, I would cash out right now, buy into the stock market—which will recover more quickly than collectibles markets—cash out of that in three-to-six months, and then re-build my collection at a discount.

From a financial perspective that certainly makes sense.

 

On 3/19/2020 at 9:40 AM, Mmehdy said:

I agree 100% that SA marvels which are in greater supply should be sold First, then GA if necessary. You have a much greater chance either to get them cheaper once this virus has cleared the planet as well as more being available that is going on the market.In Fact, if you can...trade up and sell SA into GA especially when every collector finally realizes that we are in a GA/SA market correction you have a opportunity to potentially trading up.. A minor point would be that possible the GA collector might be a greater age than the SA collector and be more financially stable and less likely to dump his or her collection and lived thru more crisis . The GA collector also might have a overall longer time as a collector..with a greater emotional commitment to our hobby as well as being in our great hobby much longer. I like SA books don't get wrong..FF5, ASM1 etc.., however it is possible also that more speculators have purchased SA tied to all the recent marvel  hit movies that have come out...which would mean more fast dumping once the widget goes down in value and more speculation which has increased the possibility of bubble value in the SA market.

Mitch;

In full agreement with your astute assessment of the difference between the GA and the more recent SA and BA comic book marketplace going forward.  

I certainly don't see breakeven being reached anytime soon for speculators who paid record setting prices for highest (or near highest) graded copies of otherwise relatively common movie hype related books like FF52 at $90K, Tomb of Dracula 10 at $85K, Hulk 181 at $59K, Marvel Super-Heroes 13 at $31K+, Iron Man 30 at $15K, Eternals 13 at $4,100, etc.  To tell you the honest truth though, the buyers of these books at these kinds of   prices would most likely have lost money on the books anyways even without this Coronavirus, unless they were already thinking of holding them in their personal collection for several years right from the get go and even then.   

Now, if you are a long-term GA collector who had paid something like only $1K or $2K or thereabouts way back in the day for relatively nice copies of what are now deem to be semi-key or classic cover GA books such as Action 13, 'Tec 31, All-American 61, All-Select 1, Cap 3, etc. my thinking is that these collectors will do just fine if they simply hold onto their books for a few more years until the world recovers and the prices on these books get back to their old record valuations again.        

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I continue to look at the stats. The stats are alarming, unfortunately.

Although I am quite sure that the stats are being heavily affected by the additional testing now being done by countries that did no testing before (hmm....like the U.S.A. ), the trajectory certainly  does not look good to this point in time.  

Especially since it took something like slightly more than 3 months to get to 100,000 cases throughout the world with most of them in China, only 12 days after that to reach the 2nd 100,000 cases globally with most of them in Europe, and now apparently only a further 3 days to hit the 3rd 100,000 cases globally with most of them once again in Europe and now the United States sadly trying to crash this pandemic party in a big way to show the world who the true global leader really is .   

Edited March 22, 2020 by lou_fine

[Cat-Man_America]

32 minutes ago, tabcom said:

"As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States . . . Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized"

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w

Evidently the government placed our bets on shoring up the hospital system at the risk of societal collapse.

CDC reported data indicated 15,219 cases as of March 21 with over 200 deaths and they include a caveat that individual state provided numbers may differ and be more up to date. Current media reported U.S. numbers are 32,000 plus cases and over 400 deaths based on state figures.  Hospital system is not shored up to where it needs to be according to state Governors and medical professionals.

[Cat-Man_America]

47 minutes ago, szav said:

 

Have to say after reading the article and the comments from the person who refuted it... the article itself was very well reasoned and scientific with hard data backing up the claims.  The comments refuting it, while not 100 percent without merit, were not as reasoned or convincing.

I wouldn’t take either source literally.  Articles from non-medical sources hold less credibility from my perspective.  In respect to how the pandemic should be addressed now, from my perspective it’s better to be proactive and safe than having regrets later on,  I have too many friends and loved ones that I’m concerned about, the economic repercussions be damned.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Cat-Man_America

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

 

Mitch;

In full agreement with your astute assessment of the difference between the GA and the more recent SA and BA comic book marketplace going forward.  

I certainly don't see breakeven being reached anytime soon for speculators who paid record setting prices for highest (or near highest) graded copies of otherwise relatively common movie hype related books like FF52 at $90K, Tomb of Dracula 10 at $85K, Hulk 181 at $59K, Marvel Super-Heroes 13 at $31K+, Iron Man 30 at $15K, Eternals 13 at $4,100, etc.  To tell you the honest truth though, the buyers of these books at these kinds of   prices would most likely have lost money on the books anyways even without this Coronavirus, unless they were already thinking of holding them in their personal collection for several years right from the get go and even then.   

Now, if you are a long-term GA collector who had paid something like only $1K or $2K or thereabouts way back in the day for relatively nice copies of what are now deem to be semi-key or classic cover GA books such as Action 13, 'Tec 31, All-American 61, All-Select 1, Cap 3, etc. my thinking is that these collectors will do just fine if they simply hold onto their books for a few more years until the world recovers and the prices on these books get back to their old record valuations again.        

I cannot get my head around FF 52 for 90K...or MSH #13 at 31K,, it just seems like madness or greed or a mimi bubble on those  common marvel books. I agree AF 15/FF1 etc I can see that...not books like the Groot TTA. They would of come down no matter what when the marvel movie machine sputters.I agree with you on the more that you have paid or in to the GA/SA comic book realitive to the current market value would make you more likely to sell during this crisis. I have always warned even about GA which go for 10X guide etc..too many of them. I agree with second the theory that the less you pay, the more likely you will not sell as you have little to lose.

 We here  on the boards are way ahead of the pack..given that I would very careful to pay any multiple of guides prices for anything unless you have to have the book, or it comes up once every 5/10 years until we have hit bottom on the GA downward ladder.

I would still like to hear from anybody on Ha's still giving cash advances of GA/SA material if you consign with them, as well as the apparent rush by sellers to use that client service.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mmehdy

[tabcom]

Presented without political comment.

 

[Tri-Color Brian]

The great sell off is here...Action #10 thru #50 are going for $10 each on ebay.  Rumor has it that ComicConnect is going to have a $1 golden age sale any day now.  We live in exciting times... 

[Mmehdy]

19 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

The great sell off is here...Action #10 thru #50 are going for $10 each on ebay.  Rumor has it that ComicConnect is going to have a $1 golden age sale any day now.  We live in exciting times... 

I think top quality CGC graded unrestored GA  with good page and staple quality will be the last element to feel the market contraction. Action 10-50 at $10 buck could not be obtained even in the very early 60's. I do not see a 99% decrease in value. I do see a very possible 50% decrease in value of unrestored low grade GA, restored GA and any GA with poor page quality, tape or rusty staples taking that type of hit. Still, everything is gonna take hit..some little and some great. Should you buy GA at a giveaway price...I don't think price should be the sole factor, but for exit strategy which at some point all of GA collectors will have to consider, price point could be a significant factor as when you exit. Bargain prices sometime backfire. I would buy the book not the price. Of course condition and rarity must play a factor in any buying decision.  

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Tri-Color Brian]

1 minute ago, Mmehdy said:

I think top quality CGC graded unrestored GA  with good page and staple quality will be the last element to feel the market contraction. Action 10-50 at $10 buck could not be obtained even in the very early 60's. I do not see a 99% decrease in value. I do see a very possible 50% decrease in value of unrestored low grade GA, restored GA and any GA with poor page quality, tape or rusty staples taking that type of hit. Still, everything is gonna take hit..some little and some great. Should you buy GA at a giveaway price...I don't think price should be the sole factor, but for exit strategy which at some point all of GA collectors will have to consider, price point could be everything. Bargain prices sometime backfire. I would buy the book not the price. Of course condition and rarity must play a factor.

Of course, and my statement was just a joke.  I do not see a large-scale panic sell off in this hobby.  We have been thru downturns in the economy before that did not affect our hobby.  The only thing that seems to affect us is supply and demand...

[Mmehdy]

13 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Of course, and my statement was just a joke.  I do not see a large-scale panic sell off in this hobby.  We have been thru downturns in the economy before that did not affect our hobby.  The only thing that seems to affect us is supply and demand...

Got it..I thought so. Another thought,,how is this downturn gonna effect "Whale collectors". I remember, a very famous pulp collector told me one time...that the very rich "fly above the turbulence of life".  Probably true. The one "whale" piece that is currently available does not seem to have its price effected by this crisis yet as it is still on the market with NO bidders.

An incredible piece of original comic book art is coming to auction. The very first Flash Gordon Sunday. The artwork is a grail piece and great at the same time. Well, Profies thinks there is a whale out there...the minimum bid is $400,000.00 USD plus buyers premium. There is 8 days to go in the auction. We should all pay attention to see what the "whales" are doing. In better times I  that grail would sell for 500k or more easily, but if goes unsold it might mean that even the "whales" taking a break. Remember, "whale" collectors tend be jack prices when they really want a piece. Should be interesting to see what happens.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Mmehdy

[Tri-Color Brian]

44 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

Got it..I thought so. Another thought,,how is this downturn gonna effect "Whale collectors". I remember, a very famous pulp collector told me one time...that the very rich "fly above the turbulence of life".  Probably true. The one "whale" piece that is currently available does not seem to have its price effected by this crisis yet as it is still on the market with NO bidders.

An incredible piece of original comic book art is coming to auction. The very first Flash Gordon Sunday. The artwork is a grail piece and great at the same time. Well, Profies thinks there is a whale out there...the minimum bid is $400,000.00 USD plus buyers premium. There is 8 days to go in the auction. We should all pay attention to see what the "whales" are doing. In better times I think sell for 500k or more easily, but if goes unsold it might mean that even the "whales" taking a break. Remember, "whale" collectors tend be jack prices when they really want a piece. Should be interesting to see what happens.

OK, first of all...you need to learn the difference between the words "affect" and "effect".  You're using "effect" wrong.  This drives me nuts...

And 2nd, I don't know how whale collectors even get the whales in a mylar...

Edited March 23, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian

[Tri-Color Brian]

9 minutes ago, szav said:

You're also doing something that drives people nuts...

I'm just trying to inject a little levity into this trying situation...but it seems funny book collectors don't have much of a sense of humor...

And yes, I do think a "lawyer" should be able to use words properly...

Edited March 23, 2020 by Tri-ColorBrian

[Tri-Color Brian]

1 minute ago, szav said:

I think... you're .. .perhaps missing my point.

I think I covered it in my edit.  Refresh and read it again...

[lou_fine]

On 3/20/2020 at 11:57 AM, Mmehdy said:

It is in China's best interest to have a weak America in a long term business strategy `and China thinks long term. This 90% statistic I do not trust it, I do not trust anything that China says especially since they claimed that we brought the Virus to them via US Military.

 

On 3/20/2020 at 1:00 PM, comicjack said:

On 3/20/2020 at 12:49 PM, fifties said:

Right, and we can believe everything that comes out of their "news" propaganda.  

I can't believe anything that comes from them 

I would most definitely take anything I see on the internet with respect to the origins of the Coronavirus with a whole ton of skepticism.  Especially since I have heard everything from Chinese spies stealing it from a Canadian lab, bio-engineered virus brought into Wuhan by American operatives acting as participants in the World Military Games, bio-engineered virus accidentally leaked from a Wuhan lab which just happens to be the only BSL-4 virlogy lab in all of China, virus came from a burning meteorite which landed in China, etc.       

From a comic book point of view though, the only conspiracy theory that I would subscribe to is that it came from a Thanos wannabe who's actually doing a very bad job at right-sizing the world's population.  

I actually live right next door to a family that came back from China about a month ago and they simply can't believe how lackadaisical the North American approach is to containing the virus as it is compared to China.  They said it was like the diffference between night and day with most of the general population over here still not really taking it that seriously.  Especially when they say that people can still go out to go jogging or to walk their dogs, and then you see the younger generation celebrating Spring Break with beach parties or younger people not caring about their elders by doing stupid things like licking subway car pole handles, door knobs for doors to public places, etc.   

No matter how inaccurate the numbers might possibly be, I woud still much rather be in the position of the country that is reporting only 39 new cases during the previous 24-hour time period, as opposed to the country that is reporting 9,339 cases for the previous 24-hour reporting time period.  Although large number's of China's own general populaton don't believe all the numbers emanating from their own government talking heads, it appears to have still been good enough for Apple to reopen all of their brick and mortar retail stores in China, while at the same time, closing every single one of their retail stores outside China on a now declared indefinite basis.  

Not sure how much more faith I would put in any type of administration that boasts they knew the virus was a pandemic right from the get go and the first one to call it as such.  Sad to say that this is probably actually true since Military Intelligence had apparently already informed them as such way back in January.  And then to state right the next day that nothing could have been done about it because nobody knew anything about the virus as it had snuck up on everybody.  And then to top it off, to counter with the boast that they were actually early to the game and ahead of the virus when questioned the other day as to whether their response to the virus situation was late or not.  I am sure that I see a Pinocchio nose growing longer and longer here, and yet it seems that most people would believe almost anything in this day and age of so-called "fake news" and media hoaxes.    

Edited March 23, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

The great sell off is here...Action #10 thru #50 are going for $10 each on ebay.  Rumor has it that ComicConnect is going to have a $1 golden age sale any day now.  We live in exciting times... 

 

2 hours ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

Of course, and my statement was just a joke.  I do not see a large-scale panic sell off in this hobby.  We have been thru downturns in the economy before that did not affect our hobby.  The only thing that seems to affect us is supply and demand...

Now you tell me.  

Especially right after I gave a call into Dave to see if his Church run of Action Comics and Allentown copy of 'Tec 27 was now available at full cover price, for what really amounts to nothing more than some used and now worthless old comic books.    

[lou_fine]

24 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

“I don’t take any responsibility at all”

Not sure who you are referring to since I was actually talking in my post about the Carl Barks Donald Duck story which i was reading last night?  

Hopefully, you are not referring to an actual real person because the Mods will be sure to slap you with a big warning once they get back into the office from their imposed lockdown.  

Hopefully, you simply misquoted and really meant to say "With great power comes great responsibility" as said by good old Spidey in his famous line.   

So, by linking your comment to my post, if you don't see me around here for the next while, I guess I'll have you to blame for being given the bunt from the boards.    

Edited March 23, 2020 by lou_fine

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/22/2020 at 11:21 PM, lou_fine said:

Not sure who you are referring to since I was actually talking in my post about the Carl Barks Donald Duck story which i was reading last night?  

Hopefully, you are not referring to an actual real person because the Mods will be sure to slap you with a big warning once they get back into the office from their imposed lockdown.  

Hopefully, you simply misquoted and really meant to say "With great power comes great responsibility" as said by good old Spidey in his famous line.   

So, by linking your comment to my post, if you don't see me around here for the next while, I guess I'll have you to blame for being given the bunt from the boards.    

I’d have gladly linked Great Caesars Ghost’s comment to my post if it were still in the thread, and been happy to have borne any critical brunt of agreeing with the truth.  I think it’s well past time for walking on egg shells around folks making life or death decisions impacting hundreds of thousands of good citizens based solely on personal whims and how the image looks to supporters.  That ship sailed with the pandemic.  We can parse the subject in safer terms of how these decisions effect convention travel and the economics of buying and selling comics in this new environment where personal health becomes a factor in buyer consideration.

Never used the “p” word or the “T” word and try my best to maintain a focus on comics during the pandemic. This is just a routine comics discussion thread full of hero’s, victims, scoundrels and criminal masterminds!

Edited March 24, 2020 by Cat-Man_America
My grammar made me do it. ;0)

[KCOComics]

While there is no doubt this is going to spell trouble for the global economy with an awful lot of people not working, it is extraordinary how technology is enabling life to move forward.

We are seeing an immediate shift to a population working at home, virtual school for my kids, a change to online classes for college kids, Telahealth and a rise in mail order services.

I have worked at home for many years, but today will be the first day I'm working, my wife is virtually teaching, and my 7 year old son is going to school all from the same room.....  And we have a 2 year old who will do his best to make sure none of us accomplish anything. 

From a collecting stand point, it will be interesting to see how technology changes the game.  You'll have a lot of shops unable to open and a lot of dealers unable to attend cons. While it's possible many collectors will hoard those big ticket books, I actually think we'll see tremendous buying opportunities from dealers who sell books to survive. 

The boards and online auctions will have allot of inventory. Then it's a question of if enough collectors have the job security to drive the demand. 

 

[Tri-Color Brian]

I just ordered 4 books today online...

[comicjack]

16 minutes ago, Tri-ColorBrian said:

I just ordered 4 books today online...

You better wipe them down