Tracking hammer results during the COVID-19 pandemic 5 5

[lizards2]

1 minute ago, greggy said:

 

FU @Buzzetta

Up the Buzzetta?

[Hollywood1892]

On 3/24/2020 at 10:24 PM, DavidTheDavid said:

Curious? Here's a look at select auction results. Knowing me, I won't keep this up, but hey, not like I have much else to do right now. Except work. And parent.

I no longer use GPA, so my comparison for FMV is from GoCollect. Generally, I selected books that were likely to land over $1,000, were exceptional copies, or which trade frequently. If someone wants to add GPA data, DM me. I'd be curious to see that column added. For the Gold lots in ComicLink, GoCo won't have much information, but I may record the hammers anyhow.

Anyhow: the data.

UPDATE (04 Apr 2020):

I doubt that I will capture any more data from the current ComicLink auction. Here are captured results through last night. The remaining night of comics lots includes "assorted." There are always some keys and such there, usually lower grade copies of ones offered on the preceding days, but it's mostly less desirable stuff.

Here are some observations and thoughts after watching this.

1. This is obviously a very limited dataset. It's not the complete auction. It's only one auction. It's an auction during a period of high economic uncertainty. And the data I captured was loosely defined.
2. I looked for frequently traded books, only blue label books, high dollar books, and books generally accepted as keys or having some other collector significance.
3. Since I was using GoCollect for a FMV comparison, I did not capture results from the Golden Age nights since GoCo seldom has a FMV determination for these comics.
4. I watched most of these results live, and the folks who complain about sniping on CLink have reason to complain. Almost all of them had bids in the closing seconds.
5. For high quantity books (think a book where you'll see a 9.8, 9.6, 9.4, and possibly additional lower grade copies for sale), the bargains were often on the 9.4. I am defining bargain here as the copy that was percentage-wise the most below GoCollect's FMV.
6. The average % change was about -12%. That number was very consistent throughout. Only last night did it actually drop under 12%, to 11.88%. Prices seemed obviously depressed but not bottomed out.
7. Of the 331 lots, 61 hammered at or above FMV. 

I haven't noticed a drop in spending...

[DavidTheDavid]

31 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I haven't noticed a drop in spending...

Based on what? The one auction you watched that jumped to $300 in the closing seconds?

[Hollywood1892]

22 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Based on what? The one auction you watched that jumped to $300 in the closing seconds?

Yep

That was evidence enough for me...the book wasn't even well known...

Depressions and recessions are born out of fear, everybody trying to recoup finances that were never really there to begin with ie everybody rushing to the bank to take out all their money at once, credit and loans, bad mortgages, unemployment.

If everyone who collects, starts to worry about the actual value of their products/books and sells at a reduced value of their books then there will be a drastic drop in the value of collectibles, but if people relax and hold unto their products then we can see this through.

We seem to understand why things happen, but rarely do anything to prevent it. (I am talking economically). When it comes to collectibles it is generally the collectors who control the market and set the value on a product.

As Adam Smith said "The true value of something is how much someone will pay for it"

If we think our collectibles are worth less then what they are generally worth because of the pandemic, then there will be a devastating drop in collectibles, one that may take years to recoup. But if we show a bit of patience and try to see this through, and trust in the value of our collectibles rather then resorting to fear and turning to them for survival then I think things will be okay.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Hollywood1892

[lou_fine]

22 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

54 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I haven't noticed a drop in spending...

Based on what? The one auction you watched that jumped to $300 in the closing seconds?

Or possibly based upon this rather fugly looking, but relatively more affordable Restored copy of Cap 3 here:

Sold for $7,105 or for something like 5.5X condition guide for a Restored book.     

[Hollywood1892]

9 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Or possibly based upon this rather fugly looking, but relatively more affordable Restored copy of Cap 3 here:

Sold for $7,105 or for something like 5.5X condition guide for a Restored book.     

I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

Edited April 8, 2020 by Hollywood1892

[SkintDoctor]

37 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Yep

That was evidence enough for me...the book wasn't even well known...

Depressions and recessions are born out of fear, everybody trying to recoup finances that were never really there to begin with ie everybody rushing to the bank to take out all their money at once, credit and loans, bad mortgages, unemployment.

If everyone who collects, starts to worry about the actual value of their products/books and sells at a reduced value of their books then there will be a drastic drop in the value of collectibles, but if people relax and hold unto their products then we can see this through.

We seem to understand why things happen, but rarely do anything to prevent it. (I am talking economically). When it comes to collectibles it is generally the collectors who control the market and set the value on a product.

As Adam Smith said "The true value of something is how much someone will pay for it"

If we think our collectibles are worth less then what they are generally worth because of the pandemic, then there will be a devastating drop in collectibles, one that may take years to recoup. But if we show a bit of patience and try to see this through, and trust in the value of our collectibles rather then resorting to fear and turning to them for survival then I think things will be okay.

Recessions generally occur with a widespread drop in spending, and a pandemic can cause it. Not when people horde their product.

[Hollywood1892]

7 minutes ago, BaronSamedi said:

Recessions generally occur with a widespread drop in spending, and a pandemic can cause it. Not when people horde their product.

That's exactly what I am talking about, people see a dip in the fair market value of collectibles being sold and immediately a panic is caused and everyone sells their product at less value then it is actually worth.

The value of a product can be considered a "drop" as well.

 

I would reccomend reading this article

https://www.cvtreasures.com/is-collecting-immune-to-recession-ezp-10

Edited April 8, 2020 by Hollywood1892

[JollyComics]

9 hours ago, lizards2 said:

Wow - is this about thumb-sucking? 

Are you trying to charm me, aren't you?

[Skizz]

1 hour ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I would reccomend reading this article

https://www.cvtreasures.com/is-collecting-immune-to-recession-ezp-10

I’m not sure we can place much importance to this article. It’s written by a dealer in collectibles, quoting an auction house for collectibles. Both very biased to propping up the immunity of collectibles market in recessions.

 

2 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Yep

That was evidence enough for me...the book wasn't even well known...

Depressions and recessions are born out of fear, everybody trying to recoup finances that were never really there to begin with ie everybody rushing to the bank to take out all their money at once, credit and loans, bad mortgages, unemployment.

If everyone who collects, starts to worry about the actual value of their products/books and sells at a reduced value of their books then there will be a drastic drop in the value of collectibles, but if people relax and hold unto their products then we can see this through.

We seem to understand why things happen, but rarely do anything to prevent it. (I am talking economically). When it comes to collectibles it is generally the collectors who control the market and set the value on a product.

As Adam Smith said "The true value of something is how much someone will pay for it"

If we think our collectibles are worth less then what they are generally worth because of the pandemic, then there will be a devastating drop in collectibles, one that may take years to recoup. But if we show a bit of patience and try to see this through, and trust in the value of our collectibles rather then resorting to fear and turning to them for survival then I think things will be okay.

Are you saying that collectibles comic market will not go down during this recession and are you HOPING that sellers don’t panic and bring it down?

Edited April 8, 2020 by Skizz

[90sChild]

You can blame sellers for lowering prices, but as someone that just put up 40 books for auction I can assure you in a free market system the seller has nothing to do with dropping sales prices.  If I put my $5000 book up for sale and nobody bids, it isn't worth $5000.  If I put it up for $4500 and it gets bid to $4650 then it was worth $4650.  Not sure how that can be the sellers fault.  You're essentially advocating that if sellers never drop their prices that prices never come down.  All that means is nobody in the market is buying.  How long do you think that can hold up for?  Should the entire comics market just go the next couple years with nobody selling anything?

[Jaylam]

5 minutes ago, 90sChild said:

You can blame sellers for lowering prices, but as someone that just put up 40 books for auction I can assure you in a free market system the seller has nothing to do with dropping sales prices.  If I put my $5000 book up for sale and nobody bids, it isn't worth $5000.  If I put it up for $4500 and it gets bid to $4650 then it was worth $4650.  Not sure how that can be the sellers fault.  You're essentially advocating that if sellers never drop their prices that prices never come down.  All that means is nobody in the market is buying.  How long do you think that can hold up for?  Should the entire comics market just go the next couple years with nobody selling anything?

A collectible is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, not what you think it’s worth.

[theCapraAegagrus]

[Krismusic]

3 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Yep

That was evidence enough for me...the book wasn't even well known...

Depressions and recessions are born out of fear, everybody trying to recoup finances that were never really there to begin with ie everybody rushing to the bank to take out all their money at once, credit and loans, bad mortgages, unemployment.

If everyone who collects, starts to worry about the actual value of their products/books and sells at a reduced value of their books then there will be a drastic drop in the value of collectibles, but if people relax and hold unto their products then we can see this through.

We seem to understand why things happen, but rarely do anything to prevent it. (I am talking economically). When it comes to collectibles it is generally the collectors who control the market and set the value on a product.

As Adam Smith said "The true value of something is how much someone will pay for it"

If we think our collectibles are worth less then what they are generally worth because of the pandemic, then there will be a devastating drop in collectibles, one that may take years to recoup. But if we show a bit of patience and try to see this through, and trust in the value of our collectibles rather then resorting to fear and turning to them for survival then I think things will be okay.

This might be ok for some, but remember a lot of people have lost their jobs temporarily or permanently because of the shrinkage in the economy from not spending etc.. those people are on EI or CREB in Canada which is 500$ a week in Toronto you know how expensive it is from rent, utilities and food. So I’ve seen friend and people I know start to sell things for dirt cheap just to get some cash for necessities. They also don’t know if they will get their jobs back or if they will be brought back at reduced hours for months or even at reduced wages. You do what you got to do right 

Hope everyone is staying safe.

[paperheart]

31 minutes ago, 90sChild said:

You can blame sellers for lowering prices, but as someone that just put up 40 books for auction I can assure you in a free market system the seller has nothing to do with dropping sales prices.  If I put my $5000 book up for sale and nobody bids, it isn't worth $5000.  If I put it up for $4500 and it gets bid to $4650 then it was worth $4650.  Not sure how that can be the sellers fault.  You're essentially advocating that if sellers never drop their prices that prices never come down.  All that means is nobody in the market is buying.  How long do you think that can hold up for?  Should the entire comics market just go the next couple years with nobody selling anything?

food? shelter? who needs those? i need the value of my collectibles to stay strong. #neversell

[Hollywood1892]

16 minutes ago, Krismusic said:

This might be ok for some, but remember a lot of people have lost their jobs temporarily or permanently because of the shrinkage in the economy from not spending etc.. those people are on EI or CREB in Canada which is 500$ a week in Toronto you know how expensive it is from rent, utilities and food. So I’ve seen friend and people I know start to sell things for dirt cheap just to get some cash for necessities. They also don’t know if they will get their jobs back or if they will be brought back at reduced hours for months or even at reduced wages. You do what you got to do right 

Hope everyone is staying safe.

I agree...and I'm not relating collectibles to the economy as a whole and job security....I hope we bounce back soon

[Hollywood1892]

1 hour ago, Skizz said:

I’m not sure we can place much importance to this article. It’s written by a dealer in collectibles, quoting an auction house for collectibles. Both very biased to propping up the immunity of collectibles market in recessions.

 

Are you saying that collectibles comic market will not go down during this recession and are you HOPING that sellers don’t panic and bring it down?

What I am saying is....collectibles should be the last thing people turn too in situations like this...and since it is a niche market, it will be the last thing the overall economy will direct their attention on in terms of value...to reiterate "its value is what someone will pay for it" if a panicked seller decides to sell me his CGC 9.8 New Mutants 98 for $100 then it is his fault and we are all punished for it....

And you are right about the article (biased)

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, 90sChild said:

You can blame sellers for lowering prices, but as someone that just put up 40 books for auction I can assure you in a free market system the seller has nothing to do with dropping sales prices.  If I put my $5000 book up for sale and nobody bids, it isn't worth $5000.  If I put it up for $4500 and it gets bid to $4650 then it was worth $4650.  Not sure how that can be the sellers fault.  You're essentially advocating that if sellers never drop their prices that prices never come down. 

The other poster is most likely referring to BIN auctions which is pretty much the auction format that most comic ball transactions are done on eBay because the sellers don't have the balls to see what their books are truly worth and would much rather ask unrealistic prices hoping that a sucker will eventually come along.    

From what you are saying, you are most likely referring to a true open auction format where the book goes for whatever the final bid comes in at, whether it be low or high.  

[90sChild]

Yeah and I think Hollywood1892 is trying to say that if nobody ever lists items in a true auction format, then items will never show a declining price?  You can fill ebay with all listings in fixed-price formats, and watch what happens when nobody buys anything.  Eventually, the sellers who want the money more will undercut the other sellers and lower their prices.    

Edited April 8, 2020 by 90sChild

[Hollywood1892]

5 minutes ago, 90sChild said:

Yeah and I think Hollywood1892 is trying to say that if nobody ever lists items in a true auction format, then items will never show a declining price?  You can fill ebay with all listings in fixed-price formats, and watch what happens when nobody buys anything.  Eventually, the sellers who want the money more will undercut the other sellers and lower their prices.    

I totally agree...I also don't think Ebay is an accurate device to determine the fair market value of a book, but sadly some sellers use this tool...