50th annual Overstreet - What does he get right? What does he get wrong? 3 3

[lou_fine]

On 7/24/2021 at 9:00 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Anybody else have any predictions on which books Bob Overstreet tinkers with?

 

On 7/24/2021 at 12:37 PM, szav said:

Looking forward to the upcoming "51st annual Overstreet - What does he get wrong? What does he get really wrong?" thread.

I remember he had to put in a qualifier at the front of both his own 2020 Market Report and also for his advisors' market reports in the 2020 Price Guide because it did not include an update for the impact of Covid-19 which started to hit North America in February of last year. 

I wonder if he's going to have to put in a similar qulaifier for this year's edition of the guide because it's not going to include an update for the impact of the absolute craziness that prices have taken starting in the February/March time period of this year. 

I guess this gives him a full year to see if this craziness in prices, especially on the more common BA/CA books is going to continue or not, so that he can include it in his upcoming guides before the end of this decade if it does.      

[manofsteel]

Can anyone tell me why, if a book sells for multiples of the guide price, why doesn’t the guide price adjust to that price? For example, Superman 14. It’s always sold for 1.5-2 times guide price. Why doesn’t the price guide adjust to that?

[adamstrange]

On 7/25/2021 at 7:16 PM, manofsteel said:

Can anyone tell me why, if a book sells for multiples of the guide price, why doesn’t the guide price adjust to that price? For example, Superman 14. It’s always sold for 1.5-2 times guide price. Why doesn’t the price guide adjust to that?

Overstreet doesn't have time to track every book, and he uses a 3 year moving average so that smooths out rapid increases or declines.  Also, the numbers used for the Guide are probably no more recent than Dec 2020.

[lou_fine]

On 7/25/2021 at 9:34 PM, adamstrange said:

On 7/25/2021 at 4:16 PM, manofsteel said:

Can anyone tell me why, if a book sells for multiples of the guide price, why doesn’t the guide price adjust to that price? For example, Superman 14. It’s always sold for 1.5-2 times guide price. Why doesn’t the price guide adjust to that?

Overstreet doesn't have time to track every book, and he uses a 3 year moving average so that smooths out rapid increases or declines.  Also, the numbers used for the Guide are probably no more recent than Dec 2020.

I think you are basically correct here in terms of his valuation methodology, except for the time frame.  

I believe it's not a 3-year moving average, but one that's probably a few years longer than that for most books.    

[bronze johnny]

On 7/26/2021 at 3:32 AM, lou_fine said:

I think you are basically correct here in terms of his valuation methodology, except for the time frame.  

I believe it's not a 3-year moving average, but one that's probably a few years longer than that for most books.    

Overstreet is prudent not to fall for the speculation. I’m sure he’s also aware of the lack of transparency that auctions have (see ebay). Interesting to see how the rise of inflation plays into this. Anticipated tax increases that are coming with a national infrastructure bill will also have an impact. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by bronze johnny

[manofsteel]

That’s why I used Supes 14 for an example. It’s always sold higher than guide. So, Why not adjust the guide?

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

I'm assuming Overstreet is concerned if prices go up too fast, the hobby will implode.  As to why particular books that have always sold above guide don't get an adjustment, I cannot say. People above seem in agreement that Overstreet needs to see sustained prices higher than the guide before he will act, but there's a discrepancy as to whether the window Overstreet needs to see is 3 years or 5 years or its-who-knows-what.  From my own personal observation of Cap 46 (the holocaust cover), I would often wonder the same thing as you:  since it always sells for multiples, why doesn't it get bumped up in value in the guide?  Well, one year the upward adjustment finally got made in the Overstreet guide.  But I found that once the guide finally updated to show the higher prices the book would routinely fetch,  the only thing that changed is now the books would bring the same multiples as before, but AT THE HIGHER RECENTLY-ADJUSTED PRICES.     So the book shot up in "value".  I doubt this is what Overstreet intended, but he must surely be cognizant of the issue.  After a certain point, if this were to happen across the board, people may flee the hobby for stamps or some such other thing.

[adamstrange]

On 7/26/2021 at 10:38 AM, manofsteel said:

That’s why I used Supes 14 for an example. It’s always sold higher than guide. So, Why not adjust the guide?

There are thousands of books like Supe 14.  Ask any collector that's been around and they'll provide their favorite examples of books that are continually undervalued.

The Guide is printed with long lead times so the data is stale and the 3 year moving average is used to smooth out the ups and downs.  You can argue that has given stability to the hobby, as a gentle upward slope inspires more confidence than an accurate one that shows more rapid ups and downs.

Regardless of what is in the Guide, it will never be as up to date as someone can get by looking at GPA data and listening to the talk around the water cooler (aka CGC Boards, Instagram and the like).  I haven't bought the Guide in years as it's not relevant for the books I purchase.  I don't really care what the Guide says because most books I like are sold at auction, and the price is whatever the winner is willing to pay.  

[ThothAmon]

When I am researching sold prices the Overstreet guide is never referenced by me. Speaking as someone who believes I can give you the approximate value almost of any comic off the top of my head the Overstreet guide is so anachronistic. Like looking at an encyclopedia printed last century. Guess I’m missing out on Dylan’s market reports though?  So there’s that. 

[Ryan.]

I absolutely love Overstreet and those that price according his  guide...when I'm buying. 

[bpc3qh]

I like buying the Guide each year, even though it's rarely, if ever, market-accurate. It's a relic, and important to the history of my beloved hobby, and isn't so expensive that I can't justify the yearly expense. But, no, I definitely don't base my prices on it.

[MusterMark]

Can’t wait to buy the new one when it arrives. 🥰

I’m not sure exactly when the new one will come out (maybe it’ll be delayed to September, like last year, due to the nature of the consequences of the pandemic).

[bronze johnny]

The Guide is one tool to have in a collector’s tool belt. Studying the Guide along with gaining experience as a collector over many years can provide someone who loves this hobby with a significant degree of perspective. Newbies have told me they want to start buying comic books and my first response “get a copy of the OSPG and take some time to go through it to gain some insight into comic books.” If more people studied the Guide, they’d be a lot smarter about what they pay for. We might also see people paying a great deal less for common books like Marvels from the late 60s to the present. Looking forward to getting the 51st Edition!

[aardvark88]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:24 AM, MusterMark said:

🥰

I’m not sure exactly when the new one will come out (maybe it’ll be delayed to September, like last year).

Supposed to be out Wed. July 28, 2021 when SDCC was traditionally scheduled so get ready to read year 2020 Covid market reports before the spike after Feb. 28, 2021.

[lou_fine]

On 7/27/2021 at 12:48 PM, aardvark88 said:

Supposed to be out Wed. July 28, 2021 when SDCC was traditionally scheduled so get ready to read year 2020 Covid market reports before the spike after Feb. 28, 2021.

Yeah, before the internet and socila media forums like this very board here, the market reports back in teh day was definitely a must read and one of the most enjoyable parts of the guide.  

I guess not so much anymore since I still have another 6 pages to go befoe I am done reading market reports from last year's edition of the guide that were written up back in December of 2019.  Neveretheless, I am definitely still looking forward to the new edition of the guide that's now due to hit the shelves of the LCS's tomorrow.    

[MusterMark]

On 7/27/2021 at 12:48 PM, aardvark88 said:

Supposed to be out Wed. July 28, 2021 

Thanks for the info!

Can't wait to buy it.  

[aardvark88]

Top 10 Overstreet 'wrongs' or a summary of Dougie Sulipa's Comic World market report ending Dec, 2020 please? Is Foom #10 (X-men) listed?

[shiverbones]

Biggest glaring problems… the old spread just doesn’t work anymore. 2.0 can be as much as 10 times too cheap for anything hot, and 5 times too expensive  for anything cold 

but the worst, because it shows no one working on it cares, is the top 10 lists, as an example, horror comics.

they use the same books they have for decades, but not the actual data they print. Black cat mystery 50 doesn’t appear on the list, though based on their pricing, it should be right up there. Just lazy, sad and telling, they print it to sell copies, no integrity 

 

[adamstrange]

On 7/29/2021 at 12:47 AM, shiverbones said:

Just lazy, sad and telling, they print it to sell copies, no integrity 

As long as they keep selling, there is no reason for them to change...

[Larryw7]

My copy is arriving tomorrow from Gemstone. The release of the OSPG used to be a big event in the hobby. I know that's not the case anymore, but I still enjoy looking at the ads, the market reports, and seeing what my comics are (supposedly) worth this year.