INVESTMENTS: Is it time to realize the truth? 3 3

[Mephisto]

58 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

 

I've casually mentioned this before.  It's not bonkers the new guard.  It is bonkers to the old guard. 

We are getting old. 

There is the possibility that this is not a bubble that is about to burst but a changing of the guard.

Let's look at AF 15 and Hulk 181. 

AF15 7.0

• 2002 High $7,000 
• 2020 High $110,000

Hulk 181 9.4

• 2002 High $2,350
• 2020 High $10,000 with a $12,000 high in 2019.

Now to us, those prices are insane.  Think of the price you paid for a book that has popped in the last few years.  At the price you paid, that is what it cost.  Could you justify paying "Y" for a book knowing that it really only cost you "X" when you bought it years ago? 

To us, those books are very high.  To the new blood, that's what they go for.  "It is what it is"  Lamenting that they should have bought an a Hulk 181 in 9.4 for $3,000 is like one of us saying we should have bought a copy for $50 back in the 1980's.  There is nothing they can do about that so a Hulk 181 in 9.4 at $10,000 IS normal for them...  For us, it is outrageous and we can sell it and happily take their money.   For the n00bz, $10,000 for a Hulk 181 9.4 is quite possibly the investment that could have been at one point buying an AF 15 in 9.4 for $10,000.  We see a bubble that might burst.  They see a bubble that has the opportunity to grow. 

I could easily be wrong.   But all of this could possibly be new blood getting attracted to the hobby. 

 

There are a few Golden Age books I wish I had kept as they exploded in the past 5 years but at the same time that 2002-2005 period is quite a long time. I was 19-21 during that period so being younger I don’t think I realized how long that amount of time really is.. 

I had gotten into art but the thing that broke me away from graded comics was a Batman 11 that showed up on HA in a blue label that had been trimmed. This was even before the Ewert scandal.

I think sticker shock is part of the issue with me getting back into comics but only partially. I wound up with a handful of books a had actually wanted years ago that I eventually bought simply to flip based on movie hype about 6-8 years ago and found I had no trouble letting them go. After having art up on the walls versus comics that sit in boxes most of the time also probably helped dwindle my interest in graded books...and I have even been reading more comics than ever.

At this point I don’t regret selling stuff I had as much as I have come to realize in the last year I wish I would have bought less art and really aimed for big pieces. I came close to selling a chunk of my art this summer to buy one big piece but dragged my feet a day or two too long and missed out. Ever since they I have regretted not just going for it. I have been buying collectibles at a much slower pace in the last year and a half so hopefully I will be able to have less clutter and save for bigger pieces that actually make me excited to own.

 

 

[lizards2]

1 minute ago, Buzzetta said:

3 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

And that's why I've spent thousands on ammo this past fall, and my wife got me a new Sig Sauer P365 SAS for Christmas.

Actually, the Sig is for carrying in the woods while walking the dog, as we have a mountain lion and wolf problem around here now.

Is that suitable in terms of stopping power or is that more for something to scare off predators ?

We don't have grizzly bears here....., I don't really want to lug around a hand-cannon in the hills.

I bought a case of IMI (Israeli Defense Forces) 115 grain di-cut jacketed hollow points. The demo video makes them appear pretty darn..., potent.  I guess if nothing else, while the wolves are eating me alive, I can be content in knowing some of them won't survive the night. 

 

[Buzzetta]

10 hours ago, lizards2 said:

...so the point of mounting books on the wall escapes me? ...

I am with you on that.  I have only one comic on display in the house and that is in the curio cabinet which is a yellow label ASM 39 signed by Romita and Lee.  Everything else is boxed.  Now, I do have a few pieces of comic art itself hanging on the way but most of that too is tucked away.  I do not see comics as something to hang on a wall.  When people come over I don't want to represent my life as a comic book or retail store of collectables. 

[Lazyboy]

14 hours ago, littledoom said:

I always felt collecting comics was a hobby or activity not an industry 

Correct. Publishing is the industry.

[Nazirite]

5 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

 

I've casually mentioned this before.  It's not bonkers to the new guard.  It is bonkers to the old guard. 

We are getting old. 

There is the possibility that this is not a bubble that is about to burst but a changing of the guard.

Let's look at AF 15 and Hulk 181. 

AF15 7.0

• 2002 High $7,000 
• 2020 High $110,000

Hulk 181 9.4

• 2002 High $2,350
• 2020 High $10,000 with a $12,000 high in 2019.

Now to us, those prices are insane.  Think of the price you paid for a book that has popped in the last few years.  At the price you paid, that is what it cost.  Could you justify paying "Y" for a book knowing that it really only cost you "X" when you bought it years ago? 

To us, those books are very high.  To the new blood, that's what they go for.  "It is what it is"  Lamenting that they should have bought a Hulk 181 in 9.4 for $3,000 is like one of us saying we should have bought a copy for $50 back in the 1980's.  There is nothing they can do about that so a Hulk 181 in 9.4 at $10,000 IS normal for them...  For us, it is outrageous and we can sell it and happily take their money.   For the n00bz, $10,000 for a Hulk 181 9.4 is quite possibly the investment that could have been at one point buying an AF 15 in 9.4 for $10,000.  We see a bubble that might burst.  They see a bubble that has the opportunity to grow. 

I could easily be wrong.   But all of this could possibly be new blood getting attracted to the hobby. 

 

Newbie here, yes,exactly that, every overstreet book should come with a time machine because for the new collector, it’s already to late to buy the keys that you desire. Do you have an extra 3-10k put away just for hobbies? No? Good luck. You say your favorite villain is Doom and your hero is Batman? Good luck.  What is frustrating is the fact that yeah, you already figured you probably can’t afford the good stuff yet,  but maybe one day you could . But then you see the raise in prices and in your gut you just KNOW in the next 5 to 10 yrs that key book might just be out of your price range for a lifetime, unless that bubble pops of course. Heck within 20 yrs or so, a lot of golden age heroes will be a 100 yrs old, those books will be museum pieces lol. - Rant over 

[crassus]

While I have been a Hulk fan since the 1970s I never got around to getting my 181 until 2015, and it was expensive, and at the time I was on the fence, but I did buy it and now when I look back on it the whole thing seems silly. I agree with @Buzzetta that its psychological and in some respects relative. In 2015 it seemed like a lot of money. Now not so much. I'm glad I put out for it then, and I wouldn't sell it now. 

[lizards2]

4 minutes ago, crassus said:

I'm glad I put out for it then.

I'm glad  you put out for "it" too. 

[crassus]

1 minute ago, lizards2 said:

I'm glad  you put out for "it" too. 

Another happy customer 

[lizards2]

4 minutes ago, crassus said:

6 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

I'm glad  you put out for "it" too. 

Another happy customer 

The cheque was indeed in the mail...., 

[Poekaymon]

6 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

 

I've casually mentioned this before.  It's not bonkers to the new guard.  It is bonkers to the old guard. 

We are getting old. 

There is the possibility that this is not a bubble that is about to burst but a changing of the guard.

Let's look at AF 15 and Hulk 181. 

AF15 7.0

• 2002 High $7,000 
• 2020 High $110,000

Hulk 181 9.4

• 2002 High $2,350
• 2020 High $10,000 with a $12,000 high in 2019.

Now to us, those prices are insane.  Think of the price you paid for a book that has popped in the last few years.  At the price you paid, that is what it cost.  Could you justify paying "Y" for a book knowing that it really only cost you "X" when you bought it years ago? 

To us, those books are very high.  To the new blood, that's what they go for.  "It is what it is"  Lamenting that they should have bought a Hulk 181 in 9.4 for $3,000 is like one of us saying we should have bought a copy for $50 back in the 1980's.  There is nothing they can do about that so a Hulk 181 in 9.4 at $10,000 IS normal for them...  For us, it is outrageous and we can sell it and happily take their money.   For the n00bz, $10,000 for a Hulk 181 9.4 is quite possibly the investment that could have been at one point buying an AF 15 in 9.4 for $10,000.  We see a bubble that might burst.  They see a bubble that has the opportunity to grow. 

I could easily be wrong.   But all of this could possibly be new blood getting attracted to the hobby. 

 

Stocks are similar.  It is just the new normal for things to be consistently and unshakably outrageously priced (to us olds).  Imagine someone who has only traded in the last 10 years or so, which should be most people between around 25-35.  They've really only seen one of the greatest bull markets in history.  Covid was just a blip, compared to prior bear markets, and for people who assumed it would rebound quickly because they have known nothing other than upward trajectory, they got double their money fast, while people like me who were actively trading in 2000 and 2008 expected years of pain, did not.  

 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

11 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

Stocks are similar.  It is just the new normal for things to be consistently and unshakably outrageously priced (to us olds).  Imagine someone who has only traded in the last 10 years or so, which should be most people between around 25-35.  They've really only seen one of the greatest bull markets in history.  Covid was just a blip, compared to prior bear markets, and for people who assumed it would rebound quickly because they have known nothing other than upward trajectory, they got double their money fast, while people like me who were actively trading in 2000 and 2008 expected years of pain, did not.  

 

Covid was just a blip *so far*; I think we have more hurt coming.

[valiantman]

2 hours ago, Nazirite said:

You say your favorite villain is Doom and your hero is Batman? Good luck.  What is frustrating is the fact that yeah, you already figured you probably can’t afford the good stuff yet,  but maybe one day you could . But then you see the raise in prices and in your gut you just KNOW in the next 5 to 10 yrs that key book might just be out of your price range for a lifetime, unless that bubble pops of course. Heck within 20 yrs or so, a lot of golden age heroes will be a 100 yrs old, those books will be museum pieces lol. - Rant over 

If only there was some way to own a portion of the biggest books in the industry - but let the security and physical custody stay with people who regularly handle many millions of dollars worth of items - while still actively collecting all the smaller books for your personal collection.

If such a thing like that existed, I can guarantee it would be both a brilliant idea and an idea actively criticized by everyone who hates people in their yard.

If only.

[Nazirite]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

If only there was some way to own a portion of the biggest books in the industry - but let the security and physical custody stay with people who regularly handle many millions of dollars worth of items - while still actively collecting all the smaller books for your personal collection.

If such a thing like that existed, I can guarantee it would be both a brilliant idea and an idea actively criticized by everyone who hates people in their yard.

If only.

If only😂

[Buzzetta]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

If only there was some way to own a portion of the biggest books in the industry - but let the security and physical custody stay with people who regularly handle many millions of dollars worth of items - while still actively collecting all the smaller books for your personal collection.

If such a thing like that existed, I can guarantee it would be both a brilliant idea and an idea actively criticized by everyone who hates people in their yard.

If only.

Knowing how my friend screwed his ex-wife out of their house after they were divorced, I see the thing you allude to as a vehicle for disaster.    The same scam that he applied to their house could easily be applied to shares of a comic book or the fractional investing of any collectable SEC regulated or not.  

 

[valiantman]

8 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

15 minutes ago, valiantman said:

If only there was some way to own a portion of the biggest books in the industry - but let the security and physical custody stay with people who regularly handle many millions of dollars worth of items - while still actively collecting all the smaller books for your personal collection.

If such a thing like that existed, I can guarantee it would be both a brilliant idea and an idea actively criticized by everyone who hates people in their yard.

If only.

Knowing how my friend screwed his ex-wife out of their house after they were divorced, I see the thing you allude to as a vehicle for disaster.    The same scam that he applied to their house could easily be applied to shares of a comic book or the fractional investing of any collectable SEC regulated or not.  

Of course there's risk!

How is putting $100 toward one of 20,000 shares of a CGC 8.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 held by another company any more risky than putting $1,000 toward current Amazing Spider-Man variants, which are limited edition covers wrapped around nothing-happens-inside-these-books issues?

One of them risks $100 that you might get screwed by an SEC-regulated company on the tiny fractional ownership in one of the best books in the world - which you would never afford outright - by a company that also trades millions of dollars in vintage cars, cards, books, bags, and sports memorabilia.

The other risks $1,000 that you will physically own a small handful of current books that are worth about $5 each when the hype dies down.

This hobby is heavily participating in the $1,000 variants-of-nothing-special market, and hasn't had any way to put $100 toward a VF Amazing Fantasy #15 until this year.

Yes, by all means, let's make sure the ONLY two options for collectors remain either paying $100,000+ for keys or paying $1,000 for small stacks of variants-of-worthlessness-printed-a-few-months-ago.

Let's not bring any more options to the table.  It would be too risky!

Edited December 26, 2020 by valiantman

[the blob]

Every adult size human in my house has a pistol crossbow and we have two hatchets (and a huge assortment of baseball bats, shovels, and a small sledge hammer) to finish the job if the bolt doesn't.

[the blob]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

Of course there's risk!

How is putting $100 toward one of 20,000 shares of a CGC 8.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 held by another company any more risky than putting $1,000 toward current Amazing Spider-Man variants, which are limited edition covers wrapped around nothing-happens-inside-these-books issues?

One of them risks $100 that you might get screwed by an SEC-regulated company which also trades millions of dollars in vintage cars, cards, books, bags, and sports memorabilia.

The other risks $1,000 that you will physically own a small handful of books that are worth about $5 each when the hype dies down.

This hobby is heavily participating in the $1,000 variants-of-nothing-special market, and hasn't had any way to put $100 toward a VF Amazing Fantasy #15 until this year.

Yes, by all means, let's make sure the ONLY option for collectors remains paying $100,000+ for keys or paying $1,000 for variants-of-worthlessness.

Let's not bring any more options to the table.  It would be too risky!

While some stuff is expensive there is a lot of vintage stuff that is not. Just peruse completed sales on ebay. I am constantly seeing sales I would have paid the final price on. Yes, condition is always an issue. I just went hot and heavy on a bunch of horror mags that looked gorgeous. We shall see. I won one auction. I wished I had put in higher bids on a few others.

[Buzzetta]

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Of course there's risk!

How is putting $100 toward one of 20,000 shares of a CGC 8.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 held by another company any more risky than putting $1,000 toward current Amazing Spider-Man variants, which are limited edition covers wrapped around nothing-happens-inside-these-books issues?

One of them risks $100 that you might get screwed by an SEC-regulated company which also trades millions of dollars in vintage cars, cards, books, bags, and sports memorabilia.

The other risks $1,000 that you will physically own a small handful of books that are worth about $5 each when the hype dies down.

This hobby is heavily participating in the $1,000 variants-of-nothing-special market, and hasn't had any way to put $100 toward a VF Amazing Fantasy #15 until this year.

Yes, by all means, let's make sure the ONLY option for collectors remains paying $100,000+ for keys or paying $1,000 for variants-of-worthlessness.

Let's not bring any more options to the table.  It would be too risky!

I don't buy $1000 Spider-man variants either. 

As I said, I did my own research into the company and can easily see a couple of ways to to easily screw over every participant while they walk around with a smile on their face thinking the world is great. 

 

[Buzzetta]

5 minutes ago, the blob said:

Every adult size human in my house has a pistol crossbow and we have two hatchets (and a huge assortment of baseball bats, shovels, and a small sledge hammer) to finish the job if the bolt doesn't.

 

 

[valiantman]

5 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

11 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Of course there's risk!

How is putting $100 toward one of 20,000 shares of a CGC 8.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 held by another company any more risky than putting $1,000 toward current Amazing Spider-Man variants, which are limited edition covers wrapped around nothing-happens-inside-these-books issues?

One of them risks $100 that you might get screwed by an SEC-regulated company which also trades millions of dollars in vintage cars, cards, books, bags, and sports memorabilia.

The other risks $1,000 that you will physically own a small handful of books that are worth about $5 each when the hype dies down.

This hobby is heavily participating in the $1,000 variants-of-nothing-special market, and hasn't had any way to put $100 toward a VF Amazing Fantasy #15 until this year.

Yes, by all means, let's make sure the ONLY option for collectors remains paying $100,000+ for keys or paying $1,000 for variants-of-worthlessness.

Let's not bring any more options to the table.  It would be too risky!

Expand  

I don't buy $1000 Spider-man variants either. 

As I said, I did my own research into the company and can easily see a couple of ways to to easily screw over every participant while they walk around with a smile on their face thinking the world is great. 

Fair enough.  I've done the same research into buying comic books that aren't key issues of the greatest characters in history and it leads to boxes and boxes of books that are worthless.

I've also done research into buying comic books that are key issues of the greatest characters in history and it leads to recognizing I wouldn't be able to afford more than 1% of most of them.

I've come to the conclusion that being able to purchase up to 1% of the key issues of the greatest characters in history might come with some risks, but it beats both "traditional" alternatives mentioned above... Tons of books worth zero, or zero books worth a ton.

Since owning the biggest keys of all time is not an option... settling for lots of books worth a small amount (your choice), or owning a small amount of books worth a lot (my choice) should both be reasonable alternatives, including all the risks that come with both.

Edited December 26, 2020 by valiantman