Buyers: What is your plan for the current insanity? 3 3

[the blob]

17 minutes ago, Vince G said:

The CARES act link I posted references the ability to withdraw 100k from a 401k without penalty and tax free as long as you pay it back in 3 years.  That might explain why so many sub 10k keys are now being bought for > 20k.  Might.  I'd really love to know the answers as I'm sure many of us out here would.  Having that type of information would be very helpful.

ok, I'm doubting that too. do you really think these flippers jacking up prices are tapping into their 401Ks for this, and how many of these people actually have 401ks with real money in them? I know a lot of middle aged people here do, sure. 

my version of my 401K has always allowed me to do that though. i have to pay interest to myself though.

can you pull money out and re-pay it with pre-tax dollars? i've had to take out a loan from my 401K to pay for an emergency and that always irritated me ... I was paying it back with after tax dollars, and I am going to get taxed on it when i withdraw.

once upon a time i looked at 401Ks as a no brainer to get tax deferred gains (particularly on dividends getting reinvested), but now I wonder whether some sort of IRA makes more sense as you're less limited in how to invest. I've done a lousy job of funding my 401K (though better than 90% of my nearly age 50 contemporaries) and it isn't anything I plan to live off of. it will more likely provide some "cushion" income to make retirement a little less uncomfortable.

maybe more folks are just giving up on the idea of buying a house and are just renting? that's a lot of chunky down payment savings that can go elsewhere. and right now less spending on entertainment. for your average upper middle class person we might be talking $10-15K. No vacations for the last year and this year are going to save me $6-10K. lack of restaurants is a couple of grand. and on and on. that'll pay for some slabs.

[the blob]

then again, yeah, who knows, if people pulled out of the stock market pre-covid and got back in they had a tremendous ride last year. yanking $30K out of what may have been six figure gains on stocks to play with comics seem plausible, particularly if they think the current tax climate on the horizon might depress the stock market. 

 

[Vince G]

8 minutes ago, the blob said:

then again, yeah, who knows, if people pulled out of the stock market pre-covid and got back in they had a tremendous ride last year. yanking $30K out of what may have been six figure gains on stocks to play with comics seem plausible, particularly if they think the current tax climate on the horizon might depress the stock market. 

 

Yep.  Market is at a high, yields on bonds and cash are very low, what do you do with your money?  I think that's the key:  People looking for other opportunities and with many being stuck in the house the past year, there's been plenty of time to research crypto, collectibles, and other alternative investments.  Maybe some of that went to comics?  

[DavidTheDavid]

9 hours ago, Vince G said:

The CARES act link I posted references the ability to withdraw 100k from a 401k without penalty and tax free as long as you pay it back in 3 years.  That might explain why so many sub 10k keys are now being bought for > 20k.  Might.  I'd really love to know the answers as I'm sure many of us out here would.  Having that type of information would be very helpful.

Last December, my wife and I withdrew money from one of our Roth accounts via the CARES Act, though not for comics. Considering the outrageous gains our investment accounts made over the months preceding our withdrawal, it was an easy call to address some home improvements before the pandemic winter landed. And considering the continued outrageous gains in the stock markets, we have no regrets in hindsight. We will repay the withdrawn amount well in advance of the three-year timeframe outlined in that CARES provision and avoid any penalties.

As for the direct stimulus payments, my LCS picked up a nice collection of bronze keys a couple of months before everyone got their Biden Bucks. In the brief conversation I had with the owner, he said that they would sell when the next stimulus money landed, and he was right. They vanished almost overnight.

[lordbyroncomics]

I simply spend a modest amount per week- $100 to $200- and pick up solid Bronze and late Silver comics and slowly build runs, get some minor keys, nothing earth shattering, but with the thought as a whole, my collection's value will be considerable as time goes on. This works for me better than just spending a huge amount on a massive key like Journey Into Mystery #83 or something- tho', it'd be nice to get there eventually.

[ExNihilo]

17 hours ago, Vince G said:

The CARES act link I posted references the ability to withdraw 100k from a 401k without penalty and tax free as long as you pay it back in 3 years.  That might explain why so many sub 10k keys are now being bought for > 20k.  Might.  I'd really love to know the answers as I'm sure many of us out here would.  Having that type of information would be very helpful.

From personal experience, the average person doesn't know a thing about finances.  That same person also isn't going to suddenly decide to withdraw whatever cash they have in a 401k to chase a hobby.

[DavidTheDavid]

1 hour ago, ExNihilo said:

From personal experience, the average person doesn't know a thing about finances.  That same person also isn't going to suddenly decide to withdraw whatever cash they have in a 401k to chase a hobby.

Why not? Maybe the know-nothings are exactly the sort to do this.

[Vince G]

1 hour ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Why not? Maybe the know-nothings are exactly the sort to do this.

If anything, people have had a lot of time to learn about finances and investing considering everything had shut down a year ago, and remained so for most of 2020.

[FoggyNelson]

My plan for the current insanity, is to stay on the sidelines, an maybe pick up low grade magazines which are still CHEAP😷‼️👍

[Vince G]

32 minutes ago, FoggyNelson said:

My plan for the current insanity, is to stay on the sidelines, an maybe pick up low grade magazines which are still CHEAP😷‼️👍

That’s what’s I’ve been doing.  If I can find a book I’m looking for at a reasonable price, I’ll buy it.  If not, pass.  And yes, I bought a bunch of mags fairly inexpensively yesterday to fill in a few holes in my collection.  Buy the stuff that eyes are off right now:)

[the blob]

20 minutes ago, Vince G said:

That’s what’s I’ve been doing.  If I can find a book I’m looking for at a reasonable price, I’ll buy it.  If not, pass.  And yes, I bought a bunch of mags fairly inexpensively yesterday to fill in a few holes in my collection.  Buy the stuff that eyes are off right now:)

My problem is i don't have gpa so I am not 100% sure what was reasonable.. Like 2019 prices?, but I have a decent idea. My last 3 slab purchases have not really been impacted by the recent madness though, so I felt comfortable with the purchases. Last night I sold 3 books.. Two of which I paid no more than $4 total for and another 66 cents... For $275, again warping my sense of what makes sense.

[Nazirite]

1 hour ago, FoggyNelson said:

My plan for the current insanity, is to stay on the sidelines, an maybe pick up low grade magazines which are still CHEAP😷‼️👍

Read your comment and started snooping. Thank you for a new addiction. 

[Vince G]

46 minutes ago, the blob said:

My problem is i don't have gpa so I am not 100% sure what was reasonable.. Like 2019 prices?, but I have a decent idea. My last 3 slab purchases have not really been impacted by the recent madness though, so I felt comfortable with the purchases. Last night I sold 3 books.. Two of which I paid no more than $4 total for and another 66 cents... For $275, again warping my sense of what makes sense.

I don't have GPA either but rely on a few different sources for tracking down most recent sales data. One example from a buy yesterday.  Marvel Spotlight 1 in around VF-.  Needed a copy to fill a hole in my run so was able to grab it for around $30.  Insignificant book right now in the grand scheme of things, but if it goes haywire, I'll sell it for a nice profit.  Otherwise, it'll stay in my collection.  Another book I picked up for $30 was a mark jewelers VF copy of Hulk 198 (Man-Thing).  Again, not all that significant, but I enjoy having a few MJs in the collection.  And if Man-Thing appearances go through the roof, I'll sell that too.  Bottom line, you can still find books that you want for your collection and are decent additions, but without paying sky-high prices.  Unfortunately, the major and minor keys are those I'm not even entertaining right now.

[Ryan.]

There's TONS of deals still out there. The fun is hunting for them. 

[ExNihilo]

6 hours ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Why not? Maybe the know-nothings are exactly the sort to do this.

It's a culmination of assumptions for me.  To start the median income is something like $52k a year.  According to this, nearly 1/3 of Americans have less than $5k in a retirement account.  It goes on to say that the median amount saved for retirement is $12,300 for <35 and $37k for 35-44.  This might be a regional bias coming from a HCOL area, but those retirement figures sound woefully low and I interpret it as someone who doesn't have the means or willpower to save, or someone who doesn't have the knowledge/understanding of how to save.  If you don't have the ability to save, the value of a dollar probably means more to you than someone raking in six figures a year.  And as such, you're less inclined to shop for a five figure book in a market you know absolutely nothing about.  Your larger concern is probably food, bills, and other essentials that are needed immediately.  I don't think a person pulls their entire retirement account of $37k only to turn around and buy a $20k book, and then have to figure out how to pay it back over 3 years.  Those types of people generally aren't able to save much to begin with.

Now, I suppose you could argue that $200-$500 books are now being sold for $1k-$2k, but the original post I responded to was referencing sub $10k books now selling for sub $20k.  It could be a case of "a rising tide lifts all ships" and that the tide began with "lower" value books, but I still don't think it's the average person who's buying into high end keys.  I still maintain the personal belief that the increase in prices is due to people having extra income that would otherwise be spent on vacations or entertainment expenses and that we'll see the comic market come back down once travel becomes a thing again.

Let's be honest, does anyone believe some of these books will be able to hold value?  I was looking at my Captain America #25 (first Sam Wilson as Captain America) this weekend and it's selling for about $100 on eBay.  I found the book in the $0.25 bin exactly two years ago.  Same with All New Captain America #1 (first Sam Wilson as Captain America on cover).  It's selling for about $50.  I found that in the $0.25 bin as well.  Do we really think those books will have the same value 10, 20, 30 years from now?  These prices for otherwise low value keys are propped by TV/Movies and will drop when enough time has passed.  Just look at Iron Man 55.  A hot book leading up to Infinity War, but who's prices have stagnated (relative to other old school keys) since then.  If that's what's happening to a book like Iron Man 55, what's going to happen to some modern key like X-Men 4 which was produced in the millions?

[Vince G]

13 minutes ago, ExNihilo said:

It's a culmination of assumptions for me.  To start the median income is something like $52k a year.  According to this, nearly 1/3 of Americans have less than $5k in a retirement account.  It goes on to say that the median amount saved for retirement is $12,300 for <35 and $37k for 35-44.  This might be a regional bias coming from a HCOL area, but those retirement figures sound woefully low and I interpret it as someone who doesn't have the means or willpower to save, or someone who doesn't have the knowledge/understanding of how to save.  If you don't have the ability to save, the value of a dollar probably means more to you than someone raking in six figures a year.  And as such, you're less inclined to shop for a five figure book in a market you know absolutely nothing about.  Your larger concern is probably food, bills, and other essentials that are needed immediately.  I don't think a person pulls their entire retirement account of $37k only to turn around and buy a $20k book, and then have to figure out how to pay it back over 3 years.  Those types of people generally aren't able to save much to begin with.

Now, I suppose you could argue that $200-$500 books are now being sold for $1k-$2k, but the original post I responded to was referencing sub $10k books now selling for sub $20k.  It could be a case of "a rising tide lifts all ships" and that the tide began with "lower" value books, but I still don't think it's the average person who's buying into high end keys.  I still maintain the personal belief that the increase in prices is due to people having extra income that would otherwise be spent on vacations or entertainment expenses and that we'll see the comic market come back down once travel becomes a thing again.

Let's be honest, does anyone believe some of these books will be able to hold value?  I was looking at my Captain America #25 (first Sam Wilson as Captain America) this weekend and it's selling for about $100 on eBay.  I found the book in the $0.25 bin exactly two years ago.  Same with All New Captain America #1 (first Sam Wilson as Captain America on cover).  It's selling for about $50.  I found that in the $0.25 bin as well.  Do we really think those books will have the same value 10, 20, 30 years from now?  These prices for otherwise low value keys are propped by TV/Movies and will drop when enough time has passed.  Just look at Iron Man 55.  A hot book leading up to Infinity War, but who's prices have stagnated (relative to other old school keys) since then.  If that's what's happening to a book like Iron Man 55, what's going to happen to some modern key like X-Men 4 which was produced in the millions?

Great analysis.  My biggest question is with respect to the sub 10k books now being sold for 2-3x that amount.  The money rolling in on those books is coming from somewhere, and I doubt it's from the average American who has received stimulus money or long time collectors who are schooled in the hobby.  

I appreciate your comment and find it highly thought provoking.

[Legion of Goom]

28 minutes ago, Vince G said:

Great analysis.  My biggest question is with respect to the sub 10k books now being sold for 2-3x that amount.  The money rolling in on those books is coming from somewhere, and I doubt it's from the average American who has received stimulus money or long time collectors who are schooled in the hobby.  

I appreciate your comment and find it highly thought provoking.

My two cents is there's additional buying pressure coming from the top end of the market, in no small part due to asset reallocation (multiple drivers there-inflation hedge, strong historical returns of key issues, etc)

There were trillions of dollars on the sidelines before the massive stock run up and extra dollars got put in circulation. There's more now.

If a miniscule fraction of that made its way into comics- even just $5 million- it could not be invested without moving the markets materially.

As comic collectors, we've been trained that a book having a few hundred copies above 9.0 makes it common and that it's a risk to long term value preservation. But, the reality is, our hobby isn't valued all that highly from a market capitalization view vs others. That's why a drop out of the massive bucket of capital waiting to be invested feels like a tidal wave of new money hitting us. The concern amongst those buyers now isn't whether a book is too liquid; it's whether it's liquid enough. Can you get copies if you want them? Thats why common books have seen such a bull run IMO.

Edited April 25, 2021 by Legion of Goom

[1950's war comics]

i think coin dealers are moving into the comic market ,,, that is what first moved baseball cards big time back in the 80's

 coins are really stagnant right now, key collectors coins are about the same price today that they were 5/10 years ago while comics have soared..

i know i'm thinking of getting back into coins especially when what i consider an ultra common book ASM  252 can now be traded for a decent 1914 D Lincoln cent

and a nice ASM 238 is now worth almost as much as a 1909-SVDB cent ,, the holy grail of Lincoln cents

[the blob]

1 hour ago, 1950's war comics said:

i think coin dealers are moving into the comic market ,,, that is what first moved baseball cards big time back in the 80's

 coins are really stagnant right now, key collectors coins are about the same price today that they were 5/10 years ago while comics have soared..

i know i'm thinking of getting back into coins especially when what i consider an ultra common book ASM  252 can now be traded for a decent 1914 D Lincoln cent

and a nice ASM 238 is now worth almost as much as a 1909-SVDB cent ,, the holy grail of Lincoln cents

Coins are boring. Like stamps. Comics are cool. Coins are for 70 year olds.

 

[1950's war comics]

3 hours ago, the blob said:

Coins are boring. Like stamps. Comics are cool. Coins are for 70 year olds.

 

then there is always currency ... which combines the beauty of coins comic and stamps....

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by 1950's war comics