Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Courageous Cat]

as a 20somthing in the 90's when the crash happened, it had really nothing to do with the economy IMO , but rather with the mass production of drek and every comic was a "collectors issue". This isn't remotely close to that era, but what I see here is/was a speculation boom on post golden age books. GA will always be popular among us, especially us older guys/gals. This current weirdo economy won't subside until a new administration steps up assuming it isn't the status quo. Buckle up kids, its gonna be a long 2 years 

[Nick Furious]

On 9/25/2022 at 10:53 PM, Courageous Cat said:

as a 20somthing in the 90's when the crash happened, it had really nothing to do with the economy IMO , but rather with the mass production of drek and every comic was a "collectors issue".

I would argue that variant covers are the modern equivalent of trying to make everything a "collector's issue".  

[Courageous Cat]

On 9/26/2022 at 2:05 AM, Nick Furious said:

I would argue that variant covers are the modern equivalent of trying to make everything a "collector's issue".  

I was silently thinking that but didn't wanna offend our modern collectors 

[Microchip]

On 9/26/2022 at 3:11 PM, lou_fine said:

On 9/26/2022 at 1:44 AM, DC# said:

Here are some select Sept Comic Link Session 1 results.    

 

Expand  

Greatly appreciate your time and effort in compiling this chart on an ongoing basis for us who are too lazy to do this kind of analysis ourselves.  

The only question I have is that from the time frame of last sale to 12 months ago, it appears to be pretty short term and really geared more for speculators or flippers.  Do you have something similar geared more for collectors that would also show the ROI for longer time periods like 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years because that would certainly be interesting to see, especially considering the fact that it takes longer than a full year to get some of your books back from the CCS/CGC long term storage warehouse once they go in there ?      

Agreed, 3, 5, and 10 year trends, would be the real information.   And since the advent of all the movies, the keys have widened, skewed, and taken off exponentially 

 

I'd love to see these charts for the HG books.  The 9.8's, and 9.6's on big books, are pulling away further and further from the lower grades... while those values have increased as well.

But the real zeitgeist of the market, IH181 took a hit in these results at 9.2 and lower..   The rocket-ship book of the hobby is not infallible after all.  

 

[GermanFan]

On 9/26/2022 at 7:53 AM, Courageous Cat said:

as a 20somthing in the 90's when the crash happened, it had really nothing to do with the economy IMO , but rather with the mass production of drek and every comic was a "collectors issue". This isn't remotely close to that era, but what I see here is/was a speculation boom on post golden age books. GA will always be popular among us, especially us older guys/gals. This current weirdo economy won't subside until a new administration steps up assuming it isn't the status quo. Buckle up kids, its gonna be a long 2 years 

"Manufactured gold" it was called.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/26/2022 at 12:53 AM, Courageous Cat said:

as a 20somthing in the 90's when the crash happened, it had really nothing to do with the economy IMO , but rather with the mass production of drek and every comic was a "collectors issue". This isn't remotely close to that era, but what I see here is/was a speculation boom on post golden age books. GA will always be popular among us, especially us older guys/gals. This current weirdo economy won't subside until a new administration steps up assuming it isn't the status quo. Buckle up kids, its gonna be a long 2 years 

This weirdo economy was birthed into this world by the pandemic.

[thunsicker]

On 9/24/2022 at 2:48 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Thanks for the info.  GA has seemed impervious so far.

Agree to disagree.  I’ve had an All Winners 14 that I’ve dropped from last price to around 15% off the last price over the last half year with no takers.

[Gregd]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:53 AM, Courageous Cat said:

as a 20somthing in the 90's when the crash happened, it had really nothing to do with the economy IMO , but rather with the mass production of drek and every comic was a "collectors issue". This isn't remotely close to that era, but what I see here is/was a speculation boom on post golden age books. GA will always be popular among us, especially us older guys/gals. This current weirdo economy won't subside until a new administration steps up assuming it isn't the status quo. Buckle up kids, its gonna be a long 2 years 

A new administration will have little bearing IMHO

This is a just part of economic cycles- crisis, followed by recovery, then bull market then crisis. This will pass, too. 6 months, 1 year, 2 years? But eventually there will be a bull market- Wall Street won’t sit idle, optimism will return and eventually irrational exuberance. 

As one seller told me when I tried to pick something up at a discount- “comics cost me very little to feed” 😂. So for those that can let them sit, it’s probably not costing you a dime to wait it out. 

[darkstar]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:05 AM, Nick Furious said:

I would argue that variant covers are the modern equivalent of trying to make everything a "collector's issue".  

Variants were fine for awhile until retailers started commissioning artists for exclusives and produced variants of variants and used limited print numbers to push sales. 

[DC#]

On 9/25/2022 at 10:11 PM, lou_fine said:

Greatly appreciate your time and effort in compiling this chart on an ongoing basis for us who are too lazy to do this kind of analysis ourselves.  

The only question I have is that from the time frame of last sale to 12 months ago, it appears to be pretty short term and really geared more for speculators or flippers.  Do you have something similar geared more for collectors that would also show the ROI for longer time periods like 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years because that would certainly be interesting to see, especially considering the fact that it takes longer than a full year to get some of your books back from the CCS/CGC long term storage warehouse once they go in there ?      

Right now I am just pulling (manually) GPA data when each of these auctions come up - I don't have a historical database.    In theory, I could add a year (or two) going back but would be stuck picking the high or low from that year.   I just don't have the time to compute the average of that year as GPA summary only shows high/low.

My instinct is that most books have a curve that generally looks like this (this happens to be Amazing Spider-Man #14 6.0).  

 

 

I will also say that I rarely look at the Market reports available in GPA.   But the August volume report was really interesting if anyone was curious about the relative size of the market for each of the comic ages.   More context on the supply side of the equation.   

 

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:20 AM, Microchip said:

But the real zeitgeist of the market, IH181 took a hit in these results at 9.2 and lower..   The rocket-ship book of the hobby is not infallible after all.  

Seems more like the canary in the comic mine.  If the super key books start dropping before everything else, the underpinnings of the market are weak.

On 9/26/2022 at 1:20 AM, Microchip said:

Agreed, 3, 5, and 10 year trends, would be the real information.   And since the advent of all the movies, the keys have widened, skewed, and taken off exponentially 

I posted something like this about one issue IH #181 9.0.  I browse the GPA frequently for many issues from SA to MA and most of them show the same pattern: nice, mostly steady growth, until about 2019 (can be as early as 2018, or late as 2021) and then large increases.  Holds true across  grades.  Here is the chart for IH#181 9.0:

 

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/26/2022 at 11:27 AM, DC# said:

Right now I am just pulling (manually) GPA data when each of these auctions come up - I don't have a historical database.    In theory, I could add a year (or two) going back but would be stuck picking the high or low from that year.   I just don't have the time to compute the average of that year as GPA summary only shows high/low.

My instinct is that most books have a curve that generally looks like this (this happens to be Amazing Spider-Man #14 6.0).  

 

 

I will also say that I rarely look at the Market reports available in GPA.   But the August volume report was really interesting if anyone was curious about the relative size of the market for each of the comic ages.   More context on the supply side of the equation.   

 

 

Great minds... 

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

To add to my previous posts, it seems like every CGC graded comic book that I still wish to purchase increases in price while those that I already own or don't wish to purchase decrease. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/25/2022 at 7:35 PM, Coverless 9.8 said:

I'd like to know what predictions the board has for the ongoing correction!  I know the 90's crash hurt back issue prices, but it seemed to really hit sales of new issues, which was the biggest bubble at the time!  Do you think the present day correction will hit new issue sales, which don't have the margin for adjustment the way they did in the 90's?!  The moment of Endgame leading in to the pandemic lockdowns and free money is something we're not likely to see ever again!  I do think many people are underestimating the pain that must come to quell inflation!  I'm not predicting high grade, genuine keys going for 2010 prices, but I am excited to see what does happen!  The zero, and near zero, interest rates that have held sway since 2009 are over!  I'm not asking anyone to talk their (comic) book and say what they'd like to happen!  I'd like to know what they genuinely think will happen!  I know separating truth from self-interest is no easy task!  

I don't see how new sales cannot be affected, people have already been cutting back due to the economy and it is only going to get worse.  If you look at the GPA charts above (DC# posted his first ),  there was steady growth until just the last few years, when prices took off.  Usually markets overcorrect, so we are probably looking at 2018/2019 prices at the least, and probably an overcorrect to 2016/2017 prices.  It all depends on WHO is paying the current prices.  My belief is that the majority is new investors/speculators/flippers who saw $$$$ in comics.  As the market falls almost all of these people will leave the market.  Many new collectors may leave due to the souring economy, or if they get burned too badly on purchases.  Another question is how many collectors saw this as an opportunity to cash out and may leave the hobby.  There is a good possibility that at the end of this downturn there will be more books available for sale and a smaller pool of individuals buying them.

[WolverineX]

On 9/26/2022 at 2:41 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I don't see how new sales cannot be affected, people have already been cutting back due to the economy and it is only going to get worse.  If you look at the GPA charts above (DC# posted his first ),  there was steady growth until just the last few years, when prices took off.  Usually markets overcorrect, so we are probably looking at 2018/2019 prices at the least, and probably an overcorrect to 2016/2017 prices.  It all depends on WHO is paying the current prices.  My belief is that the majority is new investors/speculators/flippers who saw $$$$ in comics.  As the market falls almost all of these people will leave the market.  Many new collectors may leave due to the souring economy, or if they get burned too badly on purchases.  Another question is how many collectors saw this as an opportunity to cash out and may leave the hobby.  There is a good possibility that at the end of this downturn there will be more books available for sale and a smaller pool of individuals buying them.

Jerome Powell is destroying speculators like he is going to destroy the housing market.  

 

 

[ChasingKingKirby]

On 9/24/2022 at 4:50 PM, universal soldier said:

I have been watching a couple and saw the same thing. I'm hoping for a continued drop but thinking it's getting near the time to pull the trigger on finishing off my run.

Just finished mine.  AF15 thru ASM300.

 

[Microchip]

They both do look very similar, I'm sure there's more books that would show the same trend.  This is the last 10 year tale for hobby for appreciating books? 

On 9/27/2022 at 3:47 AM, mjoeyoung said:

Seems more like the canary in the comic mine.  If the super key books start dropping before everything else, the underpinnings of the market are weak.

I posted something like this about one issue IH #181 9.0.  I browse the GPA frequently for many issues from SA to MA and most of them show the same pattern: nice, mostly steady growth, until about 2019 (can be as early as 2018, or late as 2021) and then large increases.  Holds true across  grades.  Here is the chart for IH#181 9.0:

 

 

 

On 9/27/2022 at 3:27 AM, DC# said:

My instinct is that most books have a curve that generally looks like this (this happens to be Amazing Spider-Man #14 6.0).  

 

 

[universal soldier]

On 9/26/2022 at 6:16 PM, ChasingKingKirby said:

Just finished mine.  AF15 thru ASM300.

 

Glad I got my #1 from you when I did! 

[NP_Gresham]

On 9/22/2022 at 9:07 PM, mjoeyoung said:

The reason there are only 3 on the census is because the people who own them don't care about getting things graded, or that until just recently it wasn't worth the money to send them in to be graded.

OR there is 500 on the census because because all the 9.4 and 9.6’s have been CPR’d a hundred fifty times as people try to win the 9.8 lottery.

Census numbers are useless in almost every case. If they meant anything that info would be ‘sold’ like the graders notes were for so long.

Edited September 26, 2022 by NP_Gresham

[NP_Gresham]

On 9/26/2022 at 3:20 AM, Microchip said:

 

But the real zeitgeist of the market, IH181 took a hit in these results at 9.2 and lower..   The rocket-ship book of the hobby is not infallible after all.  

 

Love to see how many loons would come out of the woodwork to bid up that 8.0 Hulk 181 in the 9.9 label if that SCS damaged book ever hit the market