Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/4/2022 at 12:49 PM, Ryan. said:

Anyone waiting for this supposed cratering of the market may just be in for some disappointment.

Anything is always possible, but the "hurt" in the economy is really just beginning; it take awhile for the effects to reverberate throughout.  Things are only going to get worse in the next year.  The Fed is going to keep raising rates until we have a recession and significant unemployment. Inflation is going to remain high for the next 2 or three years.  There is a real chance for 1970s style "stagflation."  Energy prices are going to go up this winter (OPEC is talking about reducing oil production by $1M barrels a day).  Rents are going up.  Credit card, mortgage and auto loan are going up.  The great majority of people will have less disposable income than they have had in recent years.  It seems inevitable that all collectibles will see further price drops for the conceivable future.  The "bear" market in comics only really started in the middle of this year, I will be shocked if prices do not continue on a downward trend.

Comic prices are dropping from the extreme heights, so people see a point to get in and buy.  Same thing happened in the stock market this week.  Prices are down from the last two weeks so there has been big buying this week.  The fundamentals have not changed, just the price.  People are so conditioned to prices going up that they see any lower prices as a buying opportunity. If a comic that was selling for $500, drops down to $300 some people see that as a buy signal, so the price sticks at around $300 for awhile.  It doesn't change the fact that the trend is downwards.  Eventually, the number of people willing to buy at $300 is exhausted, and the price keeps going down.  Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height.

 

[COI]

I like to decide what the comic market or economy is doing first, then pick through thousands of data points to find the ones that fit the picture I'm trying to paint for myself. I then relish shaking my head at everyone whose opinions or buying behaviors don't fit my view. I particularly focus on taking the bearish view at all times, because any time I'm proven wrong, I can just keep kicking the can down the road, ensuring my predictive powers and sanity remain intact. 

[Microchip]

On 10/5/2022 at 10:53 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I don't want to speak for anyone else but I am just sick of consumerism -- the endless piles of carp that I don't need -- and I suspect a lot of other people are too.  I like spending my money on experiences (travel, museums, concerts, sporting events, great restaurants), or on home improvements that genuinely make our lives better ... plus of course I spend (invest, dammit!) on collectibles as well.  And I love putting my money into my kids and their future.

So when I hear the state of the economy summed up based on what retailers are pulling in over the holidays, I do wonder if we are getting it wrong by assuming that people's interest in what those retailers have to sell is constant and the only variable is how much money they have to spend.  Maybe people are simply starting to realize what a waste of money most of it is.

I felt a similar sentiment, almost like we have hit peak consumerism, and now looking for true experiences over 'things'.   A return to spending time with friends, and family, as the thing people look forward to the most.

There's talk around a new definition of "being wealthy", not measured in purely financial assets.   It will be about freedom, and the degree of freedom you have created from financial obligations.   The less stress lifestyle, enjoying hobbies, and experiences, over being exclusively driven, and controlled by your wealth.   

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Microchip

[Ryan.]

On 10/4/2022 at 7:53 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Meanwhile I am working from home and wearing t-shirts and jeans every day anyway.

Jeans while working remote?? If my kids see me wearing jeans these days they ask if I'm going to a wedding or funeral or something. 

[Stefan_W]

My CL books in the current auction are all done and I made under 50% of my pre-auction estimate on them. Granted these ones were not big keys, but there were a bunch of 9.8 books that are cool enough to have gone for much more. 

A lot of comic prices seem to be swirling around the drain right now and I doubt it will end any time soon. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/4/2022 at 6:05 PM, COI said:

I like to decide what the comic market or economy is doing first, then pick through thousands of data points to find the ones that fit the picture I'm trying to paint for myself. I then relish shaking my head at everyone whose opinions or buying behaviors don't fit my view. I particularly focus on taking the  bearish  bullish view at all times, because any time I'm proven wrong, I can just keep kicking the can down the road, ensuring my predictive powers and sanity remain intact. 

Fixed your post for ya!  

[MAR1979]

On 10/4/2022 at 10:01 PM, Stefan_W said:

My CL books in the current auction are all done and I made under 50% of my pre-auction estimate on them. Granted these ones were not big keys, but there were a bunch of 9.8 books that are cool enough to have gone for much more. 

A lot of comic prices seem to be swirling around the drain right now and I doubt it will end any time soon. 

Sorry you took losses, but likley new normal for a while. 

There will always be exceptions, outliers, record breaking keys, and MCU rumor related hot book of the day but for the comic market as a whole the pain is just starting. For most books just holding on to a fractions of its pandemic gains will be a victory.  6 month from now today's prices will seem like the gold old days for sellers.   Also expect many who jumped on the bandwagon to leap off as they take heavy ROI hits.

Edited October 5, 2022 by MAR1979

[Microchip]

On 10/5/2022 at 2:54 PM, MAR1979 said:

On 10/5/2022 at 1:01 PM, Stefan_W said:

My CL books in the current auction are all done and I made under 50% of my pre-auction estimate on them. Granted these ones were not big keys, but there were a bunch of 9.8 books that are cool enough to have gone for much more. 

A lot of comic prices seem to be swirling around the drain right now and I doubt it will end any time soon. 

Sorry you took losses, but likley new normal for a while. 

There will always be exceptions, outliers, record breaking keys, and MCU rumor related hot book of the day but for the comic market as a whole the pain is just starting. For most books just holding on to a fractions of its pandemic gains will be a victory.  6 month from now today's prices will seem like the gold old days for sellers.   Also expect many who jumped on the bandwagon to leap off as they take heavy ROI hits.

The market lately felt like everything was hot, or about to join the party.   Everyone was looking for next breakout book, or series.  Look at the chat around Mephisto, hyping the character.  It included references to a stain glassed window image in the Wanda tv series.  People were going crazy.

For the first time, this week we have the Porcupine sitting in the flesh, in a therapy group with the Abomination, and She-hulk, and not so much as a  from the crowd. 

The big books will still be moving along, I don't see anyone finding deals in the keys this year.

[COI]

On 10/4/2022 at 11:32 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Fixed your post for ya!  

Bearish is the way to go, because on a long enough time scale you'll be proven right, even if it means waiting until the heat death of the universe. 

[World Devourer]

On 10/5/2022 at 4:16 PM, COI said:

Bearish is the way to go, because on a long enough time scale you'll be proven right, even if it means waiting until the heat death of the universe. 

True. If you are able to hold on to those gems then they will eventually pay large yields.

Look for a few bargains in the next 2-3 years as some collectors who are desperate for $$$ off load gems that would under normal circumstances stay in private collections.

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by World Devourer

[lou_fine]

On 10/4/2022 at 9:36 AM, MR. Pontoon said:

I don't doubt that some sellers took a bath, but I haven't seen any big dips on the books I'm looking for and those books are nothing fancy.

With the prices shooting sky high pretty much only since the pandemic started, the only sellers that would be losing would be the ones that brought their books within the couple of years.  

From a historical collecting POV, that's a relatively short period of time to be holding a book anyways.  That is, unless you are into flipping or trading, and as we all know, that's definitely a much more risky proposition and you shouldn't really be crying if you lose at that game because you can't win all the time.  

[Microchip]

On 10/5/2022 at 1:01 PM, Stefan_W said:

My CL books in the current auction are all done and I made under 50% of my pre-auction estimate on them. Granted these ones were not big keys, but there were a bunch of 9.8 books that are cool enough to have gone for much more. 

A lot of comic prices seem to be swirling around the drain right now and I doubt it will end any time soon. 

Was the 50% on 2022 prices, or 2019?   

The genie is out of the bottle for a good many books, but the mid-tier books have definitely moved out their decade long stagnation price wise too.

[Microchip]

On 10/5/2022 at 11:28 AM, Microchip said:

I felt a similar sentiment, almost like we have hit peak consumerism, and now looking for true experiences over 'things'.   A return to spending time with friends, and family, as the thing people look forward to the most.

There's talk around a new definition of "being wealthy", not measured in purely financial assets.   It will be about freedom, and the degree of freedom you have created from financial obligations.   The less stress lifestyle, enjoying hobbies, and experiences, over being exclusively driven, and controlled by your wealth.   

 

Translation, the red-pill has been swallowed for a good many things, not truly gratifying to our souls.

 

[Stefan_W]

On 10/5/2022 at 6:42 AM, Microchip said:

Was the 50% on 2022 prices, or 2019?   

The genie is out of the bottle for a good many books, but the mid-tier books have definitely moved out their decade long stagnation price wise too.

My estimate was based on about 70% of current GPA, so it had a lower expectation already built in. Most went for about 1/3 "value" or so, but of course with prices tumbling value is tough to estimate. I probably would have done better on this group of books in one of the CL auctions prior to the pandemic. Aside from one book that climbed to lofty heights over a hundred bucks I did not even make back grading costs let alone value for the books themselves. 

No one seems to be putting cash into run fills and moderns now. There is still a bidding war for Silver and Golden age keys, especially the scarce ones you do not see all of the time. 

I put the cash from this group into a signed CGC 9.9 Vampirella that I liked. It has pretty bad Newton Rings which means I have to send it in for a re-holder, but that also kept the price down so I think I will be ok. If I was asked before the auction whether I would trade those six books for the Vamirella I would have said yes so I guess it worked out ok for me in the end. I am a bit more concerned about the higher value books I have lined up in the next two auctions. 

[1Cool]

I love when people give real world examples of how the market for a bunch of books are crashing people still question if a large portion of the market is crashing.  Nobody is saying prices of all the ivory tower Golden Age books are crashing or saying the uber high grade books that never come up are crashing but it is pretty evident that prices are crashing on a vast majority of books in the current market.  The crashed prices may not be back to 2019 levels but when you consider that was 3 years ago and a ton of people were buying over that time period it really shouldn't be a consideration any more then saying prices have not gotten back to 1995 levels.  I think most people on the boards knew the COVID stimulus explosion in prices was not sustainable but avoiding calling it a crash or severe correction on a ton of books is just not right.  We all called it an explosion in prices in 2020 - 2021 so lets just call it what it is.

[alexgross.com]

On 10/4/2022 at 7:01 PM, Stefan_W said:

My CL books in the current auction are all done and I made under 50% of my pre-auction estimate on them. Granted these ones were not big keys, but there were a bunch of 9.8 books that are cool enough to have gone for much more. 

A lot of comic prices seem to be swirling around the drain right now and I doubt it will end any time soon. 

what era? any pics?

[Stefan_W]

On 10/5/2022 at 10:51 AM, alexgross.com said:

what era? any pics?

It was (unsurprisingly) moderns. 

[MAR1979]

On 10/5/2022 at 12:50 AM, Microchip said:

The market lately felt like everything was hot, or about to join the party.   Everyone was looking for next breakout book, or series.  Look at the chat around Mephisto, hyping the character.  It included references to a stain glassed window image in the Wanda tv series.  People were going crazy.

For the first time, this week we have the Porcupine sitting in the flesh, in a therapy group with the Abomination, and She-hulk, and not so much as a  from the crowd. 

The big books will still be moving along, I don't see anyone finding deals in the keys this year.

As I understand many Silver and Bronze keys not in 9.4 (more applicable to silver) or 9.6 or 9.8 are going for noticeably less than last year.  WWBN 32 anyone.... Lots of room for the non-prime condition keys to settle back to probably the level they should be at had there been no pandemic. Of course like all markets no one statement fits all, but for the broader market in general it will ring true, this is what happens when a bubble bursts.

Please note my post does not refer to Golden/Atom or pre-1964 Silver. I am not involved enough in those markets to have a proper understanding.

“markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.” - Keynes; However eventually it will become rational and we are now at the start of  that phase.

Edited October 5, 2022 by MAR1979

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 10/4/2022 at 7:53 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Slightly off-topic, but regardless of the state of the economy, speaking only from my own experience as a consumer, there really isn't much I get excited about buying any more.  When the holidays come around and it's time to go shopping, I am completely miserable.  It's the same slog every year, trying to find gifts for people and eventually settling for a pile of random things that add up to a dollar amount that seems right.

I think back to the '90s (which is now 25-30 years ago) and I was already starting to realize then that every year I was just walking around the mall and trying to figure out who's getting CDs or DVDs from Best Buy, who's getting a basket of junk they'll never use from Bath & Body Works, who's getting a random item from that vaguely ethnic/indigenous store that was really made in China, who's getting Godiva chocolates, who's getting a gag gift from the calendar kiosk (I once bought my mom the sexy fireman one, that went over like a lead balloon) and on and on and on.  For those in my family who actually read, which isn't many, I would always try to buy interesting books.  And of course there would be plenty of clothing, all of it new and none of it needed.

By now I have pretty much everything I need and I get exhausted when people ask what I want for my birthday or Christmas.  JIM #83 in 9.0 please!  But seriously there's not much I really need and the same is true for just about everyone else.  Entire gift categories (see CDs and DVDs, above) don't even make sense any more, and since the pandemic I feel something has really reset in people's minds when it comes to buying new clothing.  I already have a closet chock full of dress shirts, pants, sport coats, sweaters ... I have enough V necks to open my own store.  Meanwhile I am working from home and wearing t-shirts and jeans every day anyway.

I don't want to speak for anyone else but I am just sick of consumerism -- the endless piles of carp that I don't need -- and I suspect a lot of other people are too.  I like spending my money on experiences (travel, museums, concerts, sporting events, great restaurants), or on home improvements that genuinely make our lives better ... plus of course I spend (invest, dammit!) on collectibles as well.  And I love putting my money into my kids and their future.

So when I hear the state of the economy summed up based on what retailers are pulling in over the holidays, I do wonder if we are getting it wrong by assuming that people's interest in what those retailers have to sell is constant and the only variable is how much money they have to spend.  Maybe people are simply starting to realize what a waste of money most of it is.

Bouncing off of your sentiment: About 5 years ago, I told all of my friends/family that I am no longer participating in gift exchanges. Birthdays, X-Mas, etc. Why spend $50 on something that I think someone might want, and vice-versa, when both parties can simply buy exactly what they want and end the charade?

I only feel like gifts are truly gifts when they're random, unplanned. Otherwise, I feel compelled to reciprocate, and I truly despise it. I enjoy the gift exchange here because there is so much content that I cannot track, people have genuinely given me new areas to collect. Most of my collection - of collected editions - in fact started because of the gifts I've received from other CGC members. (The gift recipient being the random aspect of the exchange makes it fun.)

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 10/5/2022 at 12:50 AM, Microchip said:

It included references to a stain glassed window image in the Wanda tv series.

That scene was in the Loki series.