Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/27/2022 at 11:14 PM, lou_fine said:

Unfortunately, in a market that's falling or showing signs that it's about to fall, these non-key mid-run issues are usually a leading indicator as they are the first to drop as there's now less big reason to buy them from a demand point of view.  

My thoughts exactly. But still, the sun will shine again 

[DC#]

To some of the earlier comments about the integrity of auctions and self-dealing (all driven by speculation) - here is a fun story about NFTs.   

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/pulp-fiction-nft-secret-network-guy-zyskind-1235384962/#recipient_hashed=2da0c9a63dfde7cdde0e2a1de03bf431c50536ffff57e276d67a67dca3984739&recipient_salt=cd945304a523d435b22d14e4a81c9d812285f22c5f86488844ac2e7a487fc7a7

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/28/2022 at 11:18 AM, DC# said:

To some of the earlier comments about the integrity of auctions and self-dealing (all driven by speculation) - here is a fun story about NFTs.   

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/pulp-fiction-nft-secret-network-guy-zyskind-1235384962/#recipient_hashed=2da0c9a63dfde7cdde0e2a1de03bf431c50536ffff57e276d67a67dca3984739&recipient_salt=cd945304a523d435b22d14e4a81c9d812285f22c5f86488844ac2e7a487fc7a7

 

Don't forget to get your bids in, it is almost closed !!! 1992 Mark Zuckerberg Rookie Card and NFT  The card is at $73K (plus 15% BP), but the NFT is only at 4.8 ETH which is ~$6400.00 with only 10 bids.  The NFT is a steal at this price! 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/28/2022 at 3:39 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Don't forget to get your bids in, it is almost closed !!! 1992 Mark Zuckerberg Rookie Card and NFT  The card is at $73K (plus 15% BP), but the NFT is only at 4.8 ETH which is ~$6400.00 with only 10 bids.  The NFT is a steal at this price! 

I figured this little sideshow would get some attention today.  Though this isn't quite the right thread for it, I welcome any discussion about it as I'm curious to hear what people think.

[MGsimba77]

On 9/27/2022 at 9:05 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I agree that some of these macro observations, while they have value, can also grossly oversimplify.

Let me toss out another oversimplification that at least has one more degree of nuance.  From the start of the pandemic there was a lot of talk about a "K-shaped recovery" -- the idea being that for people in certain jobs (generally white-collar jobs that allow telecommuting, as opposed to jobs in the service industry that don't for obvious reasons), economic fortunes actually improved while things got much worse for so many others.  On the extreme end of the lucky ones, of course, were the extremely wealthy who generally saw their wealth (and their separation from regular folks) grow to previously unseen levels.

Mapping this to the collectibles market, it seems to me that no amount of broad economic downturn is ever going to really eliminate the lucky few who have the ability to go hard for the most expensive items available.  So even if there is a broad and deep correction in the overall market, I expect the bluest of the blue chips to be fairly resistant to it.

Sure the wealth trends you refer to go without saying. I'd assume there's overlap between these white collar telecommuters and the rise of crypto. But anyway, that insanely wide wealth disparity has been established for decades now so not sure that in itself explains alot. It didn't seem to impact the collectibles market to the recent extremes I'm referring to in such a relatively short burst. 2020 actually saw a decrease in wealth disparity. 

What I'm theorizing is there's a strong connection between market forces that both supercharged then precipitously devalued crypto between ~mid 2020 and early 2022 and the collectibles market. The idea behind crypto is a hedge against centrally controlled fiat currency as are most intrinsically valued risk assets as you probably know. Debatable whether crypto has intrinsic value but that's another subject. Between 2020, end of 21 bitcoin (not sure about crypto as a whole) increased ~500%. It then began a precipitous decline similar to collectibles. So at the risk of oversimplifying, I think the massive wealth created from the pandemic induced crypto boom (largely by millenials) greatly influenced collectibles by creating more of those "lucky few". Maybe these new millionaires decided for whatever reasons to diversify away from crypto for some tangible assets like collectibles or they simply liked baseball cards and comics? Or maybe both. 

So since then in last nine or so months, the dollar started kicking the rest of the world's arse (federal reserve action)....crypto, risk assets reacted accordingly....collectibles followed down 🙂

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:54 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I figured this little sideshow would get some attention today.  Though this isn't quite the right thread for it, I welcome any discussion about it as I'm curious to hear what people think.

I wouldn’t pay a nickel

 

[lou_fine]

On 9/28/2022 at 5:16 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

On 9/27/2022 at 9:14 PM, lou_fine said:

Unfortunately, in a market that's falling or showing signs that it's about to fall, these non-key mid-run issues are usually a leading indicator as they are the first to drop as there's now less big reason to buy them from a demand point of view.  

My thoughts exactly. But still, the sun will shine again 

Well, the good news is that it's not like the equity stock markets or the west coast of Florida where it's pretty much huge storm clouds and total darkness.    

At least in the GA marketplace, the sun is actually still shining out there in many portions of that comic book world.  Just not as bright and sunny as before depending upon the books you are referring to, as there are clearly some clouds approaching in the distance.    

[lou_fine]

On 9/28/2022 at 1:18 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I wouldn’t pay a nickel

 

Hey @Gotham Kid;

Is that you in there masquerading as our very own @GreatCaesarsGhost ?  

Edited September 29, 2022 by lou_fine

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/29/2022 at 10:01 AM, lou_fine said:

Hey @Gotham Kid;

Is that you in there masquerading as our very own @GreatCaesarsGhost ?  

It’s true. I stole @Gotham Kid’s line. Seemed appropriate 

[lou_fine]

Compared to the darkened storm clouds currently encircling the equity markets, the comic book marketplace is definitely a much more fun and less stressful place to be.  

Especially when you have the occasional ray of sunshine breaking through the clouds or is it bursts of insanity when you see results like this:  

https://comics.ha.com/itm/bronze-age-1970-1979-/superhero/batman-227-dc-1970-cgc-nm-mt-98-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7279-92127.s?ic16=ViewItem-Auction-Archive-PreviousPricesHeritage-081514

Sold for a rather staggering $42K for a non-pedigree copy a few Sundays ago and a continuing positive trend from the $31,200 for the Pennyworth copy back in January of 2021 followed by the Oakland copy for $33,600 a few months after that in April 2021.  Wonder if Metro was successful in peddling off their equivalent CGC 9.8 graded copy which found no buyers at $9K before they apparently bumped it up to $30K following the Pennyworth auction result?  

For that kind of money, I would much rather have the original incarnation of this classic cover, but then I imagine it would take 6-figures nowadays to get even a low-grade copy of 'Tec 31 in today's marketplace.  

Edited September 29, 2022 by lou_fine

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/29/2022 at 1:23 PM, lou_fine said:

Especially when you have the occasional ray of sunshine breaking through the clouds or is it bursts of insanity when you see results like this:  

Insanity. $5700 book in 2019.  Someone mentioned this earlier, but if REAL people are buying these copies, SOMEBODY is advising them to pay this kind of money for these books.  These buyers aren't following GPA or Overstreet. My guess is that some (many?) of them have no foundation in comic collecting and that these purchases are pure speculation plays. Someone HAS to be giving them an idea of what a max bid looks.  Why would they stop at 35% more than the last sale ($31K) or 7X the 2019 sale?

I was reading an article about baseball card collector's trying to buy up all the higher grade copies of certain cards to corner the market and influence the price.  The 12X difference in last sale price between a 9.8 ($42k) and a 9.6 ($3360) is gargantuan. Batman issues 232 and 251 show similar price differences.  Maybe there is some agenda afoot to push these 9.8s into a new pricing range to legitimize them as "investments."

[lou_fine]

On 9/29/2022 at 2:02 PM, mjoeyoung said:

The 12X difference in last sale price between a 9.8 ($42k) and a 9.6 ($3360) is gargantuan. Batman issues 232 and 251 show similar price differences.  Maybe there is some agenda afoot to push these 9.8s into a new pricing range to legitimize them as "investments."

Sounds as though you must still be a chartered member of the Flat Earth Society and not aware of the fact that CGC grades are both 110% scientifically and mathematically accurate and beyond reproach, whereas money is just so wishy washy nowadays that there's not much real difference between $3K and $42K since insignificant differences in amounts like this make them so interchangeable from one day to the next.    

[Nick Furious]

On 9/29/2022 at 8:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Sounds as though you must still be a chartered member of the Flat Earth Society and not aware of the fact that CGC grades are both 110% scientifically and mathematically accurate and beyond reproach, whereas money is just so wishy washy nowadays that there's not much real difference between $3K and $42K since insignificant differences in amounts like this make them so interchangeable from one day to the next.    

Agreed, we must consider the exponential difference in utility and personal joy one most get from owning a CGC dubbed 9.8 vs. a CGC dubbed 9.6...

[lizards2]

On 9/29/2022 at 9:05 PM, Nick Furious said:

Agreed, we must consider the exponential difference in utility and personal joy one most get from owning a CGC dubbed 9.8 vs. a CGC dubbed 9.6...

And rubbin'  

[Pantodude]

For those who acquired stuff in the past couple of years, hopefully many can take comfort in a broader perspective.  Yes, values of some books have gone down since then due to the ebb of financial markets generallly.  But many folks obtained books when they did b/c they were in a financial position to do so at THAT time. Had they not, could they really just drop everything and get ALL that same stuff now, cheaper or not?  Not most regular Joes.  Not only does one's pot of dough vary from time to time, but the demands on that pot also vary.  So opportunities to splurge (by not only having $, but also being free to spend it)  on funny books might not coincide with softer prices for books. Also, as niche collectors (be it white page junkies, price variant venturers, GA diggers, hi-grade SA/BA hunters, sig/datestamp aficionados) might appreciate, some items are unique/uncommon, to be had when the opportunity presents itself.  

So if you are not selling, take a minute to appreciate what you have and all the effort (and don't forget luck and/or convergence of right conditions) it took to amass.  I try to appreciate my books from time to time (via pix for bigger books, until I retrieve them, as I periodically do).  I "still" feel quite lucky during these times, as many of you should, too.  And if you are selling, a broader (longer-term) perspective is key, as it all averages out anyway, if you do it periodically or, better yet, regularly.  Have a good weekend!      

Edited October 1, 2022 by Pantodude
clarification

[Gregd]

On 9/30/2022 at 6:06 PM, Pantodude said:

For those who acquired stuff in the past couple of years, hopefully many can take comfort in a broader perspective.  Yes, values of some books have gone down since then due to the ebb of financial markets generallly.  But many folks obtained books when they did b/c they were in a financial position to do so at THAT time. Had they not, could they really just drop everything and get ALL that same stuff now, cheaper or not?  Not most regular Joes.  Not only does one's pot of dough vary from time to time, but the demands on that pot also vary.  So opportunities to splurge (by not only having $, but also being free to spend it)  on funny books might not coincide with softer prices for books. Also, as niche collectors (be it white page junkies, price variant venturers, GA diggers, hi-grade SA/BA hunters, sig/datestamp aficionados) might appreciate, some items are unique/uncommon, to be had when the opportunity presents itself.  

So if you are not selling, take a minute to appreciate what you have and all the effort (and don't forget luck and/or convergence of right conditions) it took to amass.  Like most, I have to settle for pix to appreciate my books until I reunite w/ most of my PC, but it works for me.  I "still" feel quite lucky, as many of you should, too.  And if you are selling, a broader (longer-term) perspective is key, as it all averages out anyway, if you do it periodically or, better yet, regularly.  Have a good weekend!      

Thank you for writing this. I collect stuff that shows up so infrequently that you might not see it for many many years. And every time I have let stuff sit for more than a day they seem to get picked up even at record prices 🤷🏻 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/30/2022 at 6:06 PM, Pantodude said:

For those who acquired stuff in the past couple of years, hopefully many can take comfort in a broader perspective.  Yes, values of some books have gone down since then due to the ebb of financial markets generallly.  But many folks obtained books when they did b/c they were in a financial position to do so at THAT time. Had they not, could they really just drop everything and get ALL that same stuff now, cheaper or not?  Not most regular Joes.  Not only does one's pot of dough vary from time to time, but the demands on that pot also vary.  So opportunities to splurge (by not only having $, but also being free to spend it)  on funny books might not coincide with softer prices for books. Also, as niche collectors (be it white page junkies, price variant venturers, GA diggers, hi-grade SA/BA hunters, sig/datestamp aficionados) might appreciate, some items are unique/uncommon, to be had when the opportunity presents itself.  

So if you are not selling, take a minute to appreciate what you have and all the effort (and don't forget luck and/or convergence of right conditions) it took to amass.  Like most, I have to settle for pix to appreciate my books until I reunite w/ most of my PC, but it works for me.  I "still" feel quite lucky, as many of you should, too.  And if you are selling, a broader (longer-term) perspective is key, as it all averages out anyway, if you do it periodically or, better yet, regularly.  Have a good weekend!      

Awesome post.  But what do you mean by this?

Like most, I have to settle for pix to appreciate my books until I reunite w/ most of my PC

[Pantodude]

On 9/30/2022 at 8:09 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Awesome post.  But what do you mean by this?

Like most, I have to settle for pix to appreciate my books until I reunite w/ most of my PC

Ohhhhh...should have specified appreciation of one's bigger books (presumably via pix, as it might require physical retrieval otherwise). I gotta have at least some around.  Besides, fun to curate periodically.   

[NP_Gresham]

Sellers still not budging much which means ever greater inventory.

When the jobs market causes the holders of these books to have to let go, then the real fun begins.

In the meantime I look all day and spend nary a dime.

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/1/2022 at 4:35 PM, NP_Gresham said:

Sellers still not budging much which means ever greater inventory.

When the jobs market causes the holders of these books to have to let go, then the real fun begins.

In the meantime I look all day and spend nary a dime.

This is definitely a time for most collectors to "keep their powder dry" and wait on anything silver and newer.

The stock market is already crying "uncle," but I don't think the Fed is going to let up on the rate increases until the unemployment rate ticks up into the 6% range.  The unemployment rate, labor participation rate, and the number of job openings is out of whack.  We are headed for a hard landing.