Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 10/6/2022 at 9:50 AM, Stefan_W said:

I had 6 moderns close out this week and only one of them recovered my grading costs. A couple more would have but I sent that one through a different presser (it was before I started pressing my own books) and the extra costs associated with that pushed the line higher.

Full disclosure though that being in Canada the costs of shipping to and from CGC are much higher, and there are also costs shipping to a US-based auction house. My cost per book after all fees in a full CGC submission of 25 moderns is usually about $45 CAD, so 33 USD. Auction house fees at CL at 10%, and shipping to CL is about $40 for a six book lot. I don't send smaller in books in for auction unless I figure they will go for $100 or more. 

Yes, costs, especially shipping, of course, only ever increase in my experience.

On a related note, although, of course, the cost of shipping has increased for comic book dealers, some add the cost of the old, if you will, "handling" to the price of shipping. Some add USD $10 or more. Clearly, it is their right. However, unless I get a price on a comic book that negates the cost of handling, it is my right to not purchase from them. A right I happily take advantage of.

[Stefan_W]

On 10/6/2022 at 10:04 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

Yes, costs, especially shipping, of course, only ever increase in my experience.

On a related note, although, of course, the cost of shipping has increased for comic book dealers, some add the cost of the old, if you will, "handling" to the price of shipping. Some add USD $10 or more. Clearly, it is their right. However, unless I get a price on a comic book that negates the cost of handling, it is my right to not purchase from them. A right I happily take advantage of.

I usually just group it all together as a final price in my head and decide to buy based on that. So from a cost perspective there is no difference between $100 for a book with free shipping, $80 for a book with $20 shipping, and $70 for a book with $20 shipping and $10 handling. However, if a sale is recorded in GPA I want the final price I pay to be reflected in what appears in GPA since it sets the bar for future value. So extra costs that are not recorded in GPA sales make me less likely to buy a book.  

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/5/2022 at 4:21 PM, Kramerica said:

I'm really seeing a shift to value - to larger runs or even 12 issue runs. I'm surprised by some of the titles too.....Arak, Amethyst, MTIO, Marvel Triple Action, Marvel Team-Up, Infinity, Inc. These aren't NM books either. Just 6.0 to 9.0 copies and people are paying decent money. But put a pretty decent VF BA book up by itself and crickets......

My opinion has always been that group lots or runs were a gamble because you usually get an "overall grade of X" with "a range of A to Z."  Invariably any "key" books in the run would fall closer to the lower grade range.  The auctions on big lots rarely have detailed images so you cannot inspect the individual books.  Some just list titles of books without the issue numbers.  My perception was that these lots always sold for fractions of guide price. I'm assuming that everybody has a LCS that sells bundled comics that are usually priced at less than cover price per issue. 

There are many examples of this new (to me) phenomenon in every Heritage Sunday auction.  Even though HA has an Overstreet estimate of value, these lots usually go for more than guide, sometimes a lot more.

[World Devourer]

On 10/5/2022 at 6:30 PM, lou_fine said:

 

From a historical collecting POV, that's a relatively short period of time to be holding a book anyways.  That is, unless you are into flipping or trading, and as we all know, that's definitely a much more risky proposition and you shouldn't really be crying if you lose at that game because you can't win all the time.  

Bingo!  Right as usual, Lou.

Comic investing (not collecting) is a long game.

[Beige]

Prices have most certainly dropped - Ultimate Fallout #4 is a perfect example of that - but that makes it a good time to buy some books too.

 

My biggest problem,is that people are just hanging onto their collections waiting for the 'good times' to come back around.

 

That won't be anytime soon - so we have a dearth of books being released into the wild, which is probably all that is keeping prices only 20% off the 2021 highs.

 

It's when a heap of these collections are let go - that is when a 'big correction' is likely to be seen.

 

If there are only 1 or 2 copies of a 9.8 book around, then you have competition. When 20 or 30 are around, then its a buyers market.

 

I sold off 10 decent books at the start of the year - all of which have dropped another 15 - 20% since then except 2 of them. One because no other book in that grade has been sold, and the other because it presented poorly.

 

However - since I bought them - they rose 60 - 70% so no complaints at all.

 

I certainly wouldn't want o be sitting on a pile of modern variants though - the future is not bright for those books.

 

There has been easily a 20% correction - when available stock numbers rise - then a 'major correction' will be on the cards.

 

And rightly so - whoever paid anywhere near $3000 (let alone the GPA high of $9200!!) for an ASM #300 in 9.8 with over 30,000 graded copies on the census (inc 1651 in 9.8) need to rethink their buying decisions.

 

There's FOMO and then there is stupidity - ASM #300 falls firmly in the latter category.

 

Those buyers have recieved some woefully bad advice from somewhere. Usually 'influencers' on the net.  I genuinely feel sorry for some of them - they relied on advice form so-say reputable source - and got burnt. Bad.

 

 

$18K for a 9.8 newsstand.

Jebus.

Give it over the winter when money gets tighter and people get colder - those collections will see the light of day. Buyers market time.

 

At the moment people are still asking absurd prices for poor condition drek - a guy wanted $2000 for these. 

 

They are $1900 overpriced!

But that;s where we are - and things will continue to work their way back to 2017 - 2018 levels by next year I honestly believe.

[COI]

My takeaway from watching the market over the last two years is, no matter what the market does, people will be upset. People got upset with the run-up in 2021, and people are upset now with the retraction. Chasing numbers and trying to time financial markets is actually a miserable thing to be engaged in. In the case of comics specifically, it's because there's only one top sale and every other book and transaction is either too early or too late.

Collect first and invest second; try to think beyond the next 18 months; make the prices of books a consideration but not the reason you buy. Here's a hot take: if you always have to sell books to buy more books, you probably can't afford to collect the books you're buying. I made this mistake myself 20 year ago. It seems like this segment of the hobby is made up of 12 collectors and thousands of others constantly selling books to buy other books for dopamine, or FOMO, or whatever.

Real sustainable. Can't wait to see what happens in the next 10-15 years, as the boomers liquidate their fantastic collections. 

[Microchip]

On 10/8/2022 at 6:39 AM, Beige said:

 

And rightly so - whoever paid anywhere near $3000 (let alone the GPA high of $9200!!) for an ASM #300 in 9.8 with over 30,000 graded copies on the census (inc 1651 in 9.8) need to rethink their buying decisions.

 

This one I will say, we (GA SA BA collectors) don't have sight of.   This is a massive grail book for so many younger collectors.   Upfront, I don't have a copy.   But for an awful lot of guy's this is the pinnacle of the modern age, and if a lot of your friends have a copy, and it's all you talk about, paying $9,200 for a newsstand copy actually makes sense.   

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/7/2022 at 4:21 PM, Microchip said:

paying $9,200 for a newsstand copy actually makes sense.   

 But somebody paid $18,600.00 for a newsstand copy.  Still make sense?

[Beige]

On 10/8/2022 at 9:21 AM, Microchip said:

This one I will say, we (GA SA BA collectors) don't have sight of.   This is a massive grail book for so many younger collectors.   Upfront, I don't have a copy.   But for an awful lot of guy's this is the pinnacle of the modern age, and if a lot of your friends have a copy, and it's all you talk about, paying $9,200 for a newsstand copy actually makes sense.   

I get what you are saying,and respect the point you are making - but I look at SA mega Keys - and $9200 buys you pretty much any of them in low grade - some even in midgrade.

$9200 gets you a midgrade DD#1 with change for a low grade ST #110 or TTA #27

I know which deal I'd rather do 

[Microchip]

On 10/8/2022 at 11:37 AM, mjoeyoung said:

 But somebody paid $18,600.00 for a newsstand copy.  Still make sense?

Seriously?!?!

A Heritage listing?

Okay, I went had a look... if they get it signed by Stan Lee's daughter, Todd's wife they'll double their money.   

 

Option 2, a big stimulus cheque, and too many meds??

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/7/2022 at 8:40 PM, Beige said:

I get what you are saying,and respect the point you are making - but I look at SA mega Keys - and $9200 buys you pretty much any of them in low grade - some even in midgrade.

$9200 gets you a midgrade DD#1 with change for a low grade ST #110 or TTA #27

I know which deal I'd rather do 

To be fair, not everyone wants low grade poop from before they were born  

[Microchip]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:35 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

On 10/8/2022 at 11:40 AM, Beige said:

I get what you are saying,and respect the point you are making - but I look at SA mega Keys - and $9200 buys you pretty much any of them in low grade - some even in midgrade.

$9200 gets you a midgrade DD#1 with change for a low grade ST #110 or TTA #27

I know which deal I'd rather do 

To be fair, not everyone wants low grade poop from before they were born  

Oh there's a ton of low grade love out there, and it scares me!

I personally break out in an OCD rash under 9.2, hence my collection doesn't go older than the late 60's.

So many guys just want to have their grail books regardless of the grade.   Any day on FB, and the CGC groups will show you this.  Younger guys don't seem to have the fixation on grade.  But with the strong supply of some books, even 7.0's can look "ok" in a slab to the untrained eye, thanks to ruthless grading.

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/7/2022 at 11:47 PM, Microchip said:

On 10/7/2022 at 10:35 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

On 10/7/2022 at 5:40 PM, Beige said:

I get what you are saying,and respect the point you are making - but I look at SA mega Keys - and $9200 buys you pretty much any of them in low grade - some even in midgrade.

$9200 gets you a midgrade DD#1 with change for a low grade ST #110 or TTA #27

I know which deal I'd rather do 

To be fair, not everyone wants low grade poop from before they were born  

Oh there's a ton of low grade love out there, and it scares me!

I personally break out in an OCD rash under 9.2, hence my collection doesn't go older than the late 60's.

So many guys just want to have their grail books regardless of the grade.   Any day on FB, and the CGC groups will show you this.  Younger guys don't seem to have the fixation on grade.  But with the strong supply of some books, even 7.0's can look "ok" in a slab to the untrained eye, thanks to ruthless grading.

 

I was just busting his balls for pulling a what I collect is awesome...what you collect is poop.  

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/7/2022 at 8:40 PM, Beige said:

I get what you are saying,and respect the point you are making - but I look at SA mega Keys - and $9200 buys you pretty much any of them in low grade - some even in midgrade.

$9200 gets you a midgrade DD#1 with change for a low grade ST #110 or TTA #27

I know which deal I'd rather do 

But on a more serious note, the last sale of a 300 9.8 newsie

Now given the choice between the 9.8 ASM & the 8.0 DD 1 I used to own....

It’s horn head all day....every day 

[GermanFan]

On 10/7/2022 at 9:39 PM, Beige said:

Prices have most certainly dropped - Ultimate Fallout #4 is a perfect example of that - but that makes it a good time to buy some books too.

 

My biggest problem,is that people are just hanging onto their collections waiting for the 'good times' to come back around.

 

That won't be anytime soon - so we have a dearth of books being released into the wild, which is probably all that is keeping prices only 20% off the 2021 highs.

 

It's when a heap of these collections are let go - that is when a 'big correction' is likely to be seen.

 

If there are only 1 or 2 copies of a 9.8 book around, then you have competition. When 20 or 30 are around, then its a buyers market.

 

I sold off 10 decent books at the start of the year - all of which have dropped another 15 - 20% since then except 2 of them. One because no other book in that grade has been sold, and the other because it presented poorly.

 

However - since I bought them - they rose 60 - 70% so no complaints at all.

 

I certainly wouldn't want o be sitting on a pile of modern variants though - the future is not bright for those books.

 

There has been easily a 20% correction - when available stock numbers rise - then a 'major correction' will be on the cards.

 

And rightly so - whoever paid anywhere near $3000 (let alone the GPA high of $9200!!) for an ASM #300 in 9.8 with over 30,000 graded copies on the census (inc 1651 in 9.8) need to rethink their buying decisions.

 

There's FOMO and then there is stupidity - ASM #300 falls firmly in the latter category.

 

Those buyers have recieved some woefully bad advice from somewhere. Usually 'influencers' on the net.  I genuinely feel sorry for some of them - they relied on advice form so-say reputable source - and got burnt. Bad.

 

 

$18K for a 9.8 newsstand.

Jebus.

Give it over the winter when money gets tighter and people get colder - those collections will see the light of day. Buyers market time.

 

At the moment people are still asking absurd prices for poor condition drek - a guy wanted $2000 for these. 

 

They are $1900 overpriced!

But that;s where we are - and things will continue to work their way back to 2017 - 2018 levels by next year I honestly believe.

Most of us here are long time collectors. I bought my first Overstreet in 1980, many here collect much longer. We know our field in and out.

But if somebody chimed in during lockdown, "inspired" by comic investing yt videos, he just cannot have the oversight.

Just like if a an amateur decides to jump in the pool shark of stocks and dares to compete with the seasoned veterans of wall street.

He may have some luck in the beginning but in the end he will walk out naked.

[Ryan.]

On 10/7/2022 at 6:02 PM, COI said:

My takeaway from watching the market over the last two years

My takeaway from watching the market over the last two years is that nobody knows what's going to happen next year, next quarter, next month or tomorrow, and anyone making declarative predictions about where the market is going is full of chit.

[Ryan.]

On 10/7/2022 at 6:02 PM, COI said:

Here's a hot take: if you always have to sell books to buy more books, you probably can't afford to collect the books you're buying. 

A lot of people buying books on credit too. 

[badback83]

On 10/8/2022 at 7:59 AM, Ryan. said:

A lot of people buying books on credit too. 

This.  I know a couple people that do it.  Sure, I’d like to buy some of the books they do, but I don’t want to spend every waking hour making back the loan.  At least the books I have are paid for.  Cash flow is important even if just causally buying and selling.  They always seem to be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

[DC#]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:57 AM, Ryan. said:

My takeaway from watching the market over the last two years is that nobody knows what's going to happen next year, next quarter, next month or tomorrow, and anyone making declarative predictions about where the market is going is full of chit.

And it is really hard to predict timing or duration even if some is right about the event.   Some real estate markets have taken decades to recover from boom bust cycle (Texas in 80s/90s for example) despite being thought of as solid wealth building assets (and people need housing).   So buy and hold strategy make work out very differently depending personal needs/circumstances.  
 

i also don’t think we have reached full capitulation yet.    BIN prices in many places (short boxed, IG, my slabs, eBay, clink) would seem to indicate that sellers believe or hope the downturn is shallow (relatively) and short and they can wait it out.    But if the efforts to tame inflation through creation of a recession/higher unemployment  are successful - that will more force capitulation.    Especially if sellers, dealers or average Joes, need to prioritize cash flow over mitigating losses.    
 

Would be interesting to hear what others are seeing in terms of pricing and actual sales at NYCC or other cons recently.

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 10/8/2022 at 7:59 AM, Ryan. said:

A lot of people buying books on credit too. 

Yes, and that is scary as you note. Thankfully, the very few times I have done that in my comic book collecting life I have made certain that I have the "comic book money" to pay the bill as soon as I receive it.