Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[alexanderjk]

On 10/7/2022 at 9:05 PM, Microchip said:

 

Option 2, a big stimulus cheque, and too many meds??

 

You do realize that very rich people also collect comics, right? Paying $9K over a books’ value is nothing for someone making millions a year (or a month). And art and collectibles buying is a common method of washing money. (See: Billion Dollar Whale, which chronicles one billionaire’s massive overpaying for art and property to launder his money. Absolutely happens in the comic collecting world, too.) 

[The lips]

On 10/8/2022 at 3:28 PM, alexanderjk said:

You do realize that very rich people also collect comics, right? Paying $9K over a books’ value is nothing for someone making millions a year (or a month). And art and collectibles buying is a common method of washing money. (See: Billion Dollar Whale, which chronicles one billionaire’s massive overpaying for art and property to launder his money. Absolutely happens in the comic collecting world, too.) 

Yeah undoubtedly very affluent people collect comics and of course they have the means to buy the big keys many of us can only dream of. 
However in my experience of working closely with the mega rich, they hate paying over the odds for anything so comic books will be no exception. 

[COI]

On 10/8/2022 at 7:57 AM, Ryan. said:

My takeaway from watching the market over the last two years is that nobody knows what's going to happen next year, next quarter, next month or tomorrow, and anyone making declarative predictions about where the market is going is full of chit.

Agreed, which is why only buying books to flip based on trying to time the market according to movie spec or some other theory isn't sustainable. 

It seems like this speculation game based on movie/tv announcements has been a major part of this run-up on prices, and you have to wonder how many times people can be burned before they just take their ball and go home.

The weird thing about movie spec is, it's not even about the movie, it's about anticipating other people's anticipation in the run-up. In most cases, even when the move is good, people stop caring once it's out. 

[WolverineX]

On 10/7/2022 at 3:39 PM, Beige said:

Prices have most certainly dropped - Ultimate Fallout #4 is a perfect example of that - but that makes it a good time to buy some books too.

 

My biggest problem,is that people are just hanging onto their collections waiting for the 'good times' to come back around.

 

That won't be anytime soon - so we have a dearth of books being released into the wild, which is probably all that is keeping prices only 20% off the 2021 highs.

 

It's when a heap of these collections are let go - that is when a 'big correction' is likely to be seen.

 

If there are only 1 or 2 copies of a 9.8 book around, then you have competition. When 20 or 30 are around, then its a buyers market.

 

I sold off 10 decent books at the start of the year - all of which have dropped another 15 - 20% since then except 2 of them. One because no other book in that grade has been sold, and the other because it presented poorly.

 

However - since I bought them - they rose 60 - 70% so no complaints at all.

 

I certainly wouldn't want o be sitting on a pile of modern variants though - the future is not bright for those books.

 

There has been easily a 20% correction - when available stock numbers rise - then a 'major correction' will be on the cards.

 

And rightly so - whoever paid anywhere near $3000 (let alone the GPA high of $9200!!) for an ASM #300 in 9.8 with over 30,000 graded copies on the census (inc 1651 in 9.8) need to rethink their buying decisions.

 

There's FOMO and then there is stupidity - ASM #300 falls firmly in the latter category.

 

Those buyers have recieved some woefully bad advice from somewhere. Usually 'influencers' on the net.  I genuinely feel sorry for some of them - they relied on advice form so-say reputable source - and got burnt. Bad.

 

 

$18K for a 9.8 newsstand.

Jebus.

Give it over the winter when money gets tighter and people get colder - those collections will see the light of day. Buyers market time.

 

At the moment people are still asking absurd prices for poor condition drek - a guy wanted $2000 for these. 

 

They are $1900 overpriced!

But that;s where we are - and things will continue to work their way back to 2017 - 2018 levels by next year I honestly believe.

I can't wait.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/8/2022 at 3:36 PM, WolverineX said:

I can't wait.

Not easy to buy into a sinking ship.  You never know how far down the ocean floor will be....

[WolverineX]

I don't have much left on my want list

[lou_fine]

On 10/8/2022 at 12:52 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Not easy to buy into a sinking ship.  You never know how far down the ocean floor will be....

Yes, when prices on the red hot speculative books were rising last year with no end in sight, many were saying they couldn't wait until prices dropped so that they could buy back in.  

Now that prices have indeed dropped significantly on some of these books here, many of these same people who couldn't wait for prices to drop are now running for the exit doors as fast as they can and don't want to touch these books with a 10-foot pole.  

Edited October 8, 2022 by lou_fine

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/8/2022 at 3:57 PM, WolverineX said:

I don't have much left on my want list

[Stefan_W]

I have said this before, but assuming a hot market will stay hot or assuming a cold market will stay cold are both very common mistakes. The first sucks you into buying books at a price you will never get back, and the second leads you to avoid solid investments. I've definitely made both mistakes since you never know how high or how low you can get, but I have also tried to minimize them by not buying "hot" books and by taking advantage of steals when prices tumbled. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/8/2022 at 3:57 PM, lou_fine said:

Yes, when prices on the red hot speculative books were rising last year with no end in sight, many were saying they couldn't wait until prices dropped so that they could buy back in.  

Now that prices have indeed dropped significantly on some of these books here, many of these same people who couldn't wait for prices to drop are now running for the exit doors as fast as they can and don't want to touch these books with a 10-foot pole.  

From a financial standpoint, the last thing I would want is for the market to drop to the point that I can grab all the books that I want.  That would mean the rest of my collection took a beating in value as well.  Use the premium you’ve been gifted over the last 2 years on books you don’t really need/want, and use that money to buy the books you truly desire owning.   
 

Of course, if your collection is a black hole and you never sell anything....you’re the type of collector that will be buying those missing issues as prices approach your comfort level.

That comfort level is pretty much the foundation of the comic market.   

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:07 PM, Stefan_W said:

I have said this before, but assuming a hot market will stay hot or assuming a cold market will stay cold are both very common mistakes. The first sucks you into buying books at a price you will never get back, and the second leads you to avoid solid investments. I've definitely made both mistakes since you never know how high or how low you can get, but I have also tried to minimize them by not buying "hot" books and by taking advantage of steals when prices tumbled. 

I got bored, and decided to “invest” in a couple copper/modern slabs at the beginning of this year.   I chose books that pretty much traded everyday: 

NM 98 9.4 W Newsie

UF 4 9.4 W

It was fun to check GPA every few days and see what the next sale was.   See what 9.2s & 9.6s were doing.    With Miles & Deadpool, there’s was always the chance of a new movie announcement or something to give them another spec bump.   Ideally, they both get bumps, I double my money...rinse and repeat.  Sold them a few months ago.  When all was said & done, I was basically back to even.  It was fun.  Got to own a couple nice books I’ve never owned before.   Might not have been as enjoyable if I invested heavily rather than just dabbled though.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/8/2022 at 4:07 PM, Stefan_W said:

I have said this before, but assuming a hot market will stay hot or assuming a cold market will stay cold are both very common mistakes. The first sucks you into buying books at a price you will never get back, and the second leads you to avoid solid investments. I've definitely made both mistakes since you never know how high or how low you can get, but I have also tried to minimize them by not buying "hot" books and by taking advantage of steals when prices tumbled. 

That's why I just keep buying.  It's like dollar cost averaging for comics.

[Gregd]

On 10/8/2022 at 8:45 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

That's why I just keep buying.  It's like dollar cost averaging for comics.

Exactly.

Avoid the noise - economic downturns happen, bubbles happen. Smartest investors know they can’t time these things. 

[Twisted_Road]

I think it is important to not be biased and to see both the bear and bull argument in order to not be blind to what might happen.

Part of the bear argument is that VIX traditional reaches at least 40 in a bear market and we haven't done that yet. The USA federal govt wants to lower inflation. In order to do that, there needs to be more unemployment, a real estate market dump, and lower spending; we are not close to that yet (some of these issues are due to the "free money" that was given out during COVID). US debt, both the country and by the citizens are at extremely high levels. Furthermore, concerns about the global economy (banks as well as energy) suggest that other countries that we depend on might be on the brink of collapse. Furthermore, supply chain issues continue and the US dollar is too strong (bad for trade).

Part bull case is that the technical on the overall future and BTC market looks prime for a bounce (using key Fibonacci levels) and the cost of oil has gone down lately. The futures market is repeated holding some key support levels by a thread. In addition, short sellers in the stock market are at a high level and that could cause a squeeze to move the market back up. Finally, small cap stocks have done relatively well. Perhaps some money is moving away from high PE ratio large cap stocks and into low PE small cap stocks, while there is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines to "buy the dip."

I am missing many thoughts both ways and I am confident that there are others here that are better versed in macroeconomics than me. By no means am I an expert as I my only expertise is that i watched the movie "The Big Short" (okay kidding there). Everyone's situation is different, but knowledge can give you a slight edge and help tailor your decisions to your situation. 

If you want an edge on the market, whether it be a minimal or moderate edge, consider looking into the VIX  on on the stock market (a measure of volatility). The higher the VIX goes, the lower the overall market, including comics (the same goes with the US dollar [DXY]). Warren Buffett said "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" and VIX taps into his thesis.

 

[GermanFan]

On 10/9/2022 at 2:24 PM, Twisted_Road said:

I think it is important to not be biased and to see both the bear and bull argument in order to not be blind to what might happen.

Part of the bear argument is that VIX traditional reaches at least 40 in a bear market and we haven't done that yet. The USA federal govt wants to lower inflation. In order to do that, there needs to be more unemployment, a real estate market dump, and lower spending; we are not close to that yet (some of these issues are due to the "free money" that was given out during COVID). US debt, both the country and by the citizens are at extremely high levels. Furthermore, concerns about the global economy (banks as well as energy) suggest that other countries that we depend on might be on the brink of collapse. Furthermore, supply chain issues continue and the US dollar is too strong (bad for trade).

Part bull case is that the technical on the overall future and BTC market looks prime for a bounce (using key Fibonacci levels) and the cost of oil has gone down lately. The futures market is repeated holding some key support levels by a thread. In addition, short sellers in the stock market are at a high level and that could cause a squeeze to move the market back up. Finally, small cap stocks have done relatively well. Perhaps some money is moving away from high PE ratio large cap stocks and into low PE small cap stocks, while there is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines to "buy the dip."

I am missing many thoughts both ways and I am confident that there are others here that are better versed in macroeconomics than me. By no means am I an expert as I my only expertise is that i watched the movie "The Big Short" (okay kidding there). Everyone's situation is different, but knowledge can give you a slight edge and help tailor your decisions to your situation. 

If you want an edge on the market, whether it be a minimal or moderate edge, consider looking into the VIX  on on the stock market (a measure of volatility). The higher the VIX goes, the lower the overall market, including comics (the same goes with the US dollar [DXY]). Warren Buffett said "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful" and VIX taps into his thesis.

 

"Margin call" with Kevin Spacey is as good as the Big Short.

I think we unfortunately live in historic times and comparisons to 1929 and the 30s can take one only so far. The very big picture is the decline of the west (USA) and the rise of the east (Eurasia) and the struggle that comes with it. I fear the world will once again be split in two. If this avoids WW3 that works for me.

The other big factor ist demographics. The Baby Boomers made every consumption wave in the last 50 to 60 years. That wave must abade as they retire now. So prices have to go down. Migrants dont have the means to afford homes etc. As I said before prices of comics overall must go down, whats in question is the timing. Quality books not so much as common drek. The common stuff (late SA, BA, Copper and moderns) will tank.

 

[XxSpideyxX]

So are we in a hot or cold market at this moment in time?  Or is this a Goldilocks market?

[BlackOut21]

On 10/9/2022 at 1:26 PM, XxSpideyxX said:

So are we in a hot or cold market at this moment in time?  Or is this a Goldilocks market?

Wish I knew. This year has been labeled “the upgrade year” for me. Focus has been on upgrading with minimum cash outflow. 
 

For example…

 

[Microchip]

On 10/10/2022 at 8:34 AM, BlackOut21 said:

Wish I knew. This year has been labeled “the upgrade year” for me. Focus has been on upgrading with minimum cash outflow. 
 

For example…

 

This last quarter, and next year looks like the right time to do it 

[mrwoogieman]

Why are boomers so stocked up in Bronze/Copper/Modern again?

[Microchip]

On 10/10/2022 at 9:52 AM, mrwoogieman said:

Why are boomers so stocked up in Bronze/Copper/Modern again?

It's package deal.   Arthritis issues, and a killer back issue collection of Dazzler, and Rom