Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[GermanFan]

On 5/5/2023 at 10:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Sure people are buying, but what are they PAYING?  The great majority of books in the chart above are below the 90 day average, and these are for the most part the big keys in the market.  I don't see any reason why prices shouldn't continue falling from here.  From 2019 to the middle of 2022 values skyrocketed,  so why isn't it possible that values continue to unwind in a similar time frame?

I wouldn't rely solely on what would be considered "normal market behavior" here.  The economic conditions that got us to this point were highly abnormal. 100 year pandemic.  Stay at home orders.  $5 trillion dollars in stimulus. A huge runup in the stock market and crypto. Even now people are not required to make their student loan payments.

Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates, higher housing costs, a recession, higher unemployment and probably a 15-20% drop in the stock market.  These might cause some trouble.

There is also a lot of psychology at play here.  Someone can look at today's values and think "Prices are 50% lower than 2021, now is the time to buy."  Others may say "Prices are still 100% higher than 2019, I'm going to wait until they come down more."  Each thought is equally valid.  Which thought becomes the prevailing wisdom?

We are not in Kansas anymore.

[GermanFan]

On 5/6/2023 at 5:54 AM, VintageComics said:

Absolutely. 

I find it amazing that I make a post that vaguely references these things. My posts are SO vague that most people wouldn't even recognize them for what they are.

And my posts get moderated within seconds or minutes because a few eagle eye'd enemies routinely go out of their way to try to get me moderated.

But you can openly talk about these forbidden topics and the post sits for days. 

Just A. M. A. Z. I. N. G. 

Meh. I'm well aware of all of these things, having done nothing but study them deeply for the past 3 years. 

Normal rules of economics stopped being applied almost 2 decades ago when the global economy crashed and entire countries went bankrupt. 

For many people it was devastating, but for others it was an opportunity of a lifetime to build generational wealth. 

What I learned is that when someone is losing money, someone else is making it. 

The world has always had it's major problems. It keeps chugging ahead. 

 

We life in a time of great risk and great opportunity. Changes not seen in a hundred years happen.

[namisgr]

On 5/5/2023 at 4:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates

Inflation in the US has dropped in under a year from a peak of 9.1% to 5.0%, so there's every reason to expect it to decline further, albeit at a slower speed.  As for high interest rates, I'm not clear what the problem is with them.  People can finally earn income once again by methods other than stock investing or speculation.

Comic book prices got so high so fast that it seems like a fairly normal process for them to now recede for awhile.  And that's a good thing in terms of affordability for collectors and other buyers.

[FormerReader]

Even in a comic book forum this nonsense comes up. Do better.

[alexgross.com]

On 5/6/2023 at 5:12 AM, namisgr said:

  As for high interest rates, I'm not clear what the problem is with them.  People can finally earn income once again by methods other than stock investing or speculation.

 

one problem with higher interest rates is that if i sell the home i bought in 2020 when rates were super low, the next mortgage i get will cost me massively more per month for the same price house. so i am disincentivized to sell, and prospective buyers are disincentivized to buy. that's a major reason why housing markets across the country are way down, especially on the west coast. i also have a HELOC whose payment has tripled since 2020. ultimately this also means i, and perhaps others, are way less apt to spend discretionary income. i used to buy a book per month in one or another auction, but those days are over for me now. 

[namisgr]

Reduced housing and rental costs are a significant component of lower inflation.  

[CGC Mike]

A few posts have been removed.  I have said it before, and I will say it again.  Do not posts links to threads ATS (across the street) That includes Ditches forum, and our competitors.  

[Nick Furious]

On 5/6/2023 at 9:22 AM, namisgr said:

Reduced housing and rental costs are a significant component of lower inflation.  

If the price of a house dropped by 5%, but higher interest rates mean that the new owner is paying 10% more per month than he would have a year ago...does that count as reduced inflation or increased inflation?  Seems to me that the net negative to discretionary spending would be the same whether the higher monthly payment is caused by higher home value or higher interest rates.  And certainly nobody is able to increase discretionary spending by refinancing in that scenario?  

[namisgr]

Bought our first house when a 30 year mortgage rate was 9%.  Today's mortgage rates are hardly novel.  High inflation rates aren't, either, although in less than a year the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index has declined from a peak of 9.1% to 5.0% as of March.  The goal of the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation to a target of around 2% by raising the Fed Fund rate is based on slowing consumer demand to help stabilize prices.

Back to the consideration of comic prices, I continue to believe that their cyclical nature is still at work, and the overall and ongoing correction in prices is both normal and healthy for the longer-term viability of the hobby.  The lower prices of late have helped me to make a few upgrades on the collecting niche that I still remain active in, while I've sold very little (and have little else to sell by now).

Edited May 6, 2023 by namisgr

[VintageComics]

On 5/6/2023 at 8:12 AM, namisgr said:

Inflation in the US has dropped in under a year from a peak of 9.1% to 5.0%, so there's every reason to expect it to decline further, albeit at a slower speed.  As for high interest rates, I'm not clear what the problem is with them.  People can finally earn income once again by methods other than stock investing or speculation.

Over 2 years ago you stated inflation was just "transitory"". It's still here crushing people. 

Jordan Peterson has a great new discussion with Peter Schiff about the state of economy and inflation. You should have a listen. It's an incredible discussion and you'd learn a lot from it.  Everyone would. 

The theory you're espousing, raising interest rates for "earning income from investments" is great for people with money who make up the minority, but it's devastating to poor people who make up the majority of the population. 

The reality is that inflation, raising rates and all the current economic measures being taken are great for the wealthy. Inflation benefits DEBTORS. Raising rates benefits DEBTORS. Who are the DEBTORS? The common people? Nope. 

The wealthy make money no matter what is happening, because their investments are generally dynamic but these new, unorthodox, eclectic measures for managing unprecedented economic actions of the last 15 years are absolutely devastating for the poor. 

The reality is that MOST people on these forums, people who ARE WEALTHY and spend $1000's each month on comic books seem to see things through their own rose colored glasses but have no idea how it's affecting the majority of the real world who can't afford to spend $100 a month on comics let alone $1000's or $10,000s as many do here.

On 5/6/2023 at 12:27 PM, namisgr said:

 The goal of the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation to a target of around 2% by raising the Fed Fund rate is based on slowing consumer demand to help stabilize prices.

The obvious, proper solution would have been not to print so much money in the 1st place. 

Every discussion that avoids this most fundamental point is a deflection from the real problem and is just another bandaid on a terminal wound.  

On 5/6/2023 at 12:27 PM, namisgr said:

Back to the consideration of comic prices, I continue to believe that their cyclical nature is still at work, and the overall and ongoing correction in prices is both normal and healthy for the longer-term viability of the hobby.

On this I'll agree. 

[namisgr]

On 5/6/2023 at 3:21 PM, VintageComics said:

Over 2 years ago you stated inflation was just "transitory"". It's still here crushing people. 

It's dropped 4 percentage points in 9 months.   Anything but the "runaway" variety that you mischaracterized it.

The 40 million Americans still living below the poverty line, as they were (in number) many more than two years ago, are still being crushed.  Advocate for them.  Even though the overwhelming majority aren't phased by the changing back issue comic book market.

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by namisgr

[VintageComics]

On 5/6/2023 at 3:24 PM, namisgr said:

On 5/6/2023 at 3:21 PM, VintageComics said:

Over 2 years ago you stated inflation was just "transitory"". It's still here crushing people. 

It's dropped 4 percentage points in 9 months.  Hardly the "runaway" variety that you called it.

I simply stated the reality that it was going to be devastating and it has totally been devastating, contrary to what most people thought was going to happen. 

Well, I have to correct that. It's been devastating to people who can't spend $1000's on comics. Most on here can't seem to relate. 

[namisgr]

More hyperbole.  And in a thread in which it doesn't belong.

Edited May 6, 2023 by namisgr

[The humble Watcher lurking]

X-Men #1 still dropping. Great to be a collector right now over a investor.

[rsouxlja7]

On 4/30/2023 at 3:28 PM, DC# said:

Here are some select results from the April/May ComicLink Focused Auction - Session 1A and 1B.    Good chance this is the only recap I do for this auction.....

Maybe a few more "green shoots" this time and results do feel a bit stronger than the March CL auction.   But a lot of books bouncing around still....hard to say if they are finding their footing.  

 

These and the other past CL results make me wonder why anyone would consign with them. Great for buyers but awful results for the sellers time and time again. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 5/6/2023 at 3:21 PM, VintageComics said:

Jordan Peterson has a great new discussion

Yeah no thanks.

[BEAUMONTS]

On 5/6/2023 at 1:29 PM, VintageComics said:

I simply stated the reality that it was going to be devastating and it has totally been devastating, contrary to what most people thought was going to happen. 

Well, I have to correct that. It's been devastating to people who can't spend $1000's on comics. Most on here can't seem to relate. 

No I can't relate to you at all. And it's not about comics.  And for that I am blessed.

[VintageComics]

On 5/6/2023 at 12:48 PM, namisgr said:

More hyperbole.  And in a thread in which it doesn't belong.

😂 YOU started the conversation on inflation. I simply replied to your points with what I feel is a better interpretation of the economy and how it's affecting things, especially comics.

If you can't read between the lines, the wealthy are still buying comics (and all other assets) and are buying on these dips + holding until it's time to sell again. I know they're doing it because they tell me they are.

The poor can't afford these comics if they expect to buy at 2019 prices.

No matter what happens (raising rates or raising inflation), MOST wealthy people generally win more often than the poor do.

On 5/6/2023 at 4:52 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Yeah no thanks.

I've never understood why someone would avoid intellectuals they disagree with. 

We learn more from intellectuals we disagree with than from someone we agree with and it prevents us living an insular life where we could miss important points.

On 5/6/2023 at 5:25 PM, BEAUMONTS said:

No I can't relate to you at all. And it's not about comics.  And for that I am blessed.

It's hard to relate to people we don't know very well.

On 5/6/2023 at 4:52 PM, rsouxlja7 said:

These and the other past CL results make me wonder why anyone would consign with them. Great for buyers but awful results for the sellers time and time again. 

Because not all the results are horrible. It all depends on which area of the market you're in.

And sometimes liquidity is more important than squeezing every last dollar from a comic.

Would you rather sit on a book for 2 years to get your max dollar or potentially leave a few percentage points on the table for instant liquidity and move that into something that may be a better hold for you?

Different strokes for different folks and one size does not fit all.

[Beige]

@CGC Mike

Every.Damn.Thread.

[namisgr]

On 5/6/2023 at 8:57 PM, VintageComics said:

😂 YOU started the conversation on inflation. 

Do you even read other posts in a thread you post in?

On 5/5/2023 at 4:46 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates, higher housing costs, a recession, higher unemployment and probably a 15-20% drop in the stock market. 

Edited May 7, 2023 by namisgr