Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Poekaymon]

Prices have not ease.

[Microchip]

On 5/23/2023 at 11:20 AM, Poekaymon said:

Prices have not ease.

The auction listing so far are heavy with books already in the $3k+ range.

No ease in sight.

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/20/2023 at 4:11 PM, valiantman said:

On 5/19/2023 at 8:38 PM, mjoeyoung said:

In reality, a CGC 9.6 is more equivalent to a baseball card PSA 7.

The most submitted CGC comic is Amazing Spider-Man #300 (1988) and the most submitted PSA card is Upper Deck Ken Griffey, Jr (1989).

0.03% CGC 9.9 for ASM #300 <--------> no equivalent for PSA

5% CGC 9.8 for ASM #300 <--------> 4% PSA 10 for 1989 UD Griffey, Jr.

15% CGC 9.6 for ASM #300 <--------> 30% PSA 9 for 1989 UD Griffey, Jr.

17% CGC 9.4 for ASM #300 <--------> still on the 30% PSA 9 for 1989 UD Griffey, Jr.

35% CGC 8.5, CGC 9.0, and CGC 9.2 combined for ASM #300 <--------> 40% PSA 8 for 1989 UD Griffey, Jr.

Interesting.  So we get rid of 9.8, 9.9 and 10 (I'm sure if we look hard enough we can find some flaws on those 10s) and make 9.8 the new 10.  9.6 and 9.4 become the new 9.5.  9.0 and 9.2 become the new 9.0.

My point about comparing a 9.6 to a PSA 7 was the amount of flaws allowed.  According to PSA, a 7 can only show only slight surface wear upon close inspection.  So part of the definition of 8s and up is that they have no surface wear.  A 9.6 or 9.8 can have a multitude of possible flaws, they just need to be smaller than in lower grades.  Imagine if part of the definition of a 9.6 was that it could not have any spine ticks, or it HAD to have 4 sharp corners, or it had to have a perfect wrap, or pure whites on the covers of books like Tales of Suspense #57 and Giant Size X-Men #1.  It would take some of the judgement out of the grading process.

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/22/2023 at 8:06 PM, Microchip said:

On 5/22/2023 at 7:20 PM, Poekaymon said:

Prices have not ease.

The auction listing so far are heavy with books already in the $3k+ range.

No ease in sight.

Usually you need to wait until the end of the auction to see what the final prices are before you can judge. 

[Microchip]

On 5/23/2023 at 3:59 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Usually you need to wait until the end of the auction to see what the final prices are before you can judge. 

Nope.

There are buying bands that a lot of guys fall into.   Under $1,000 Is the most common one.  Where hot books can perform quite strongly compared to grade as long as they finish under $1,000.

The next band is up to $3k.  Books, and grades dependant.   But the band by and large represents the final point where they're happy to chase a given book.

This auction has several pages of books above $3k with 10 days still to go.   Books can always arrive at, or exceed this band, but we usually see these results in the last moments of the auction.  The strength of bidding is particularly strong, and early, which is really unusual to see.

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/23/2023 at 2:19 AM, Microchip said:

Nope.

There are buying bands that a lot of guys fall into.   Under $1,000 Is the most common one.  Where hot books can perform quite strongly compared to grade as long as they finish under $1,000.

The next band is up to $3k.  Books, and grades dependant.   But the band by and large represents the final point where they're happy to chase a given book.

This auction has several pages of books above $3k with 10 days still to go.   Books can always arrive at, or exceed this band, but we usually see these results in the last moments of the auction.  The strength of bidding is particularly strong, and early, which is really unusual to see.

 

I'm not following this logic.  If books SELL for LESS than previous sales the prices are EASING.

There are a lot of books where the bidding is over $3K simply because there are a lot of high grade keys in this auction.  Most still have a long way to go to match their last sale.

A sample:

SPECIAL MARVEL EDITION #15, 9.8 currently at $3100, last sale $7800.

Adventure Comics #247, 6.0 currently at $3K, last sale $7800

Submariner #1, 9.8 currently at $5350, last sale $20K

WEREWOLF BY NIGHT #32, 9.6 currently at $4830, last sale $9600

Iron Fist #14, 9.8 currently at $3800, last sale $5520

Marvel Spotlight #5, 9.2 currently at $3600 ,last sale $9K

TOMB OF DRACULA #10, 9.8 currently at $7099, last sale $33,600.

Fantastic Four #48, 9.8 currently at $49K, last sale $81K

I prefer to have my eggs hatched before I count them.

[Microchip]

On 5/24/2023 at 10:32 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I'm not following this logic.  If books SELL for LESS than previous sales the prices are EASING.

There are a lot of books where the bidding is over $3K simply because there are a lot of high grade keys in this auction.  Most still have a long way to go to match their last sale.

A sample:

SPECIAL MARVEL EDITION #15, 9.8 currently at $3100, last sale $7800.

Adventure Comics #247, 6.0 currently at $3K, last sale $7800

Submariner #1, 9.8 currently at $5350, last sale $20K

WEREWOLF BY NIGHT #32, 9.6 currently at $4830, last sale $9600

Iron Fist #14, 9.8 currently at $3800, last sale $5520

Marvel Spotlight #5, 9.2 currently at $3600 ,last sale $9K

TOMB OF DRACULA #10, 9.8 currently at $7099, last sale $33,600.

Fantastic Four #48, 9.8 currently at $49K, last sale $81K

I prefer to have my eggs hatched before I count them.

I was more looking at the less obvious books.  Though it will be very interesting to see where those particular books finish.

A lot of books typically can sit for under $1,000 the entire auction, then on the last day finish at 3x, 5x, etc of that initial bidding level.

A few good examples of what looks like very aggressive bidding very early in this auction.

Nick Fury #1 9.8.   Already at $3,100 with 7 days to go.  It's a poor looking copy with minor scuffing on the bottom left corner, and typically $3,500-$3,750 currently.

Special Marvel Edition 9.8, $3,100 with 8 days to go.  GPA $7,800

Green Lantern #76.   A 9.4 copy with 3 big spine creases, $2,800 with 7 days to go.  GPA $6,900

ASM #194 CGC 9.8 NS $2,700 with 6 days to go, GPA $3,200.

ASM #14 CGC 6.5 $2,250  with 6 days to go, GPA $3,600

It looks unusual given all the talk around a correction in the market, what guys are reporting on eBay, to see such strong bidding, particularly early in a clink auction.   All the big moves are typically in the last moments. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Microchip

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 5/23/2023 at 10:02 PM, Microchip said:

I was more looking at the less obvious books.  Though it will be very interesting to see where those particular books finish.

A lot of books typically can sit for under $1,000 the entire auction, then on the last day finish at 3x, 5x, etc of that initial bidding level.

A few good examples of what looks like very aggressive bidding very early in this auction.

Nick Fury #1.   Already at $3,100 with 7 days to go.  It's a poor looking copy with minor scuffing on the bottom left corner, and typically $3,500-$3,750 currently.

Special Marvel Edition $3,100 with 8 days to go.  GPA $7,800

Green Lantern #76.   A 9.4 copy with 3 big spine creases, $2,800 with 7 days to go.  GPA $6,900

ASM #194 CGC 9.8 NS $2,700 with 6 days to go, GPA $3,200.

ASM #14 CGC 6.5 $2,250  with 6 days to go, GPA $3,600

It looks unusual given all the talk around a correction in the market, what guys are reporting on eBay, to see such strong bidding, particularly early in a clink auction.   All the big moves are typically in the last moments. 

 

 

 

 

I guess we wait a week to see if this auction is typical or not 

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/23/2023 at 8:02 PM, Microchip said:

I was more looking at the less obvious books.  Though it will be very interesting to see where those particular books finish.

A lot of books typically can sit for under $1,000 the entire auction, then on the last day finish at 3x, 5x, etc of that initial bidding level.

A few good examples of what looks like very aggressive bidding very early in this auction.

Nick Fury #1 9.8.   Already at $3,100 with 7 days to go.  It's a poor looking copy with minor scuffing on the bottom left corner, and typically $3,500-$3,750 currently.

Special Marvel Edition 9.8, $3,100 with 8 days to go.  GPA $7,800

Green Lantern #76.   A 9.4 copy with 3 big spine creases, $2,800 with 7 days to go.  GPA $6,900

ASM #194 CGC 9.8 NS $2,700 with 6 days to go, GPA $3,200.

ASM #14 CGC 6.5 $2,250  with 6 days to go, GPA $3,600

It looks unusual given all the talk around a correction in the market, what guys are reporting on eBay, to see such strong bidding, particularly early in a clink auction.   All the big moves are typically in the last moments. 

I gotcha now.   There are definitely some books that are going to equal or exceed last sale.  In the past, the "last moment" bidding has been insane on Comic Link.  I "feel" like that has moderated some in the last few auctions.  It "seems" like there has been higher than normal bidding earlier, with less of the "doubling of price in the last 10 seconds" outcomes.  Gonna be one to watch, I'm with THE_BEYONDER on this one.  

[Moondog]

On 5/19/2023 at 9:38 PM, mjoeyoung said:

At the high end you have to reduce it from 9.0, 9.2, 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9 and 10 to 9.0, 9.5 and 10.  There is not enough of a real difference to allow for 6 grades.  CGC defines all of the grades from 9.0 to 9.6 as "a very well-preserved collectible."  I agree, so they all get the grade of 9.0.

A 9.5 would be be defined by some strict number of total defects allowed.  A definition that would use precise quantitative language.  Something like "2 total front cover defects are allowed, which may include no more than 2 non color breaking spine ticks no greater than 1/4" in length, 1 bindery tear no greater than 1/8", a vertical miswrap no greater than 1/8", etc.,  3 total back cover defects are allowed, etc. and 5 total interior defects are allowed, etc., etc."  If you eclipse any of these numbers, the book gets a 9.0.

Less art, more science.

 

When the 10 point scale was first discussed in 1999 in Baltimore, I proffered a similar scale.  My goal was to have 9.0 as Near Mint.  9.5 for NM/M and 10.0 for Mint.  The consensus was that this was too easy to follow and not complicated enough.  The average collector would be able to understand it and the insiders would have no advantage.  So it was nixed and the current scale adopted.

OK, none of this was spoken out loud, but in essence this was what happened.

[DC#]

On 5/24/2023 at 7:09 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I gotcha now.   There are definitely some books that are going to equal or exceed last sale.  In the past, the "last moment" bidding has been insane on Comic Link.  I "feel" like that has moderated some in the last few auctions.  It "seems" like there has been higher than normal bidding earlier, with less of the "doubling of price in the last 10 seconds" outcomes.  Gonna be one to watch, I'm with THE_BEYONDER on this one.  

I am seeing, or at least feeling, the same thing - both on Heritage and Comiclink.  Books that are getting really close to "FMV" or whatever benchmark you want to use in early bidding may not have any bids in the final few hours - I tracked a lot of books with no change/additional bidding on the last day last auction.    I will start my recap of this CL next week - will try to cover the entire auction this time as it is a bit more manageable (only 46 pages of listings including art) 

[pickycollector]

I see both increases and decreases on some books, but there are some decreases that seem to be explained by the recent CGC's overgrading.

For example, two recent sales on Conan #14 have shown a significant price decrease but look at these two last sales, the books are simply ridiculously overgraded, it looks like the collectors are finally looking at the book and not just at the big number in the upper left corner before making a purchase...

Conan 14 ugly CGC 9.2

Conan 14 ugly CGC 9.4

Therefore, although GPA prices fluctuations give a good indication of current market values, it's important to see what kind of book was inside the slab. Overgraded books should logically sell for less and undergraded books should sell for more, so there is no general rule.

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/26/2023 at 9:45 AM, pickycollector said:

I see both increases and decreases on some books, but there are some decreases that seem to be explained by the recent CGC's overgrading.

For example, two recent sales on Conan #14 have shown a significant price decrease but look at these two last sales, the books are simply ridiculously overgraded, it looks like the collectors are finally looking at the book and not just at the big number in the upper left corner before making a purchase...

Conan 14 ugly CGC 9.2

Conan 14 ugly CGC 9.4

Therefore, although GPA prices fluctuations give a good indication of current market values, it's important to see what kind of book was inside the slab. Overgraded books should logically sell for less and undergraded books should sell for more, so there is no general rule.

How exactly are these overgraded?  They seem to have less defects than your average 9.0 and more than a 9.6.  The mis-cut is definitely "ugly" but I don't think it affects these grades.  It does illustrate the problem with the current grading system though.  The grading notes state that the 9.2 has "light bends to cover and light spine stress lines to cover" and that the 9.4 has "very light spine stress lines to cover and very small crunch left bottom of whole book." I guess a 9.6 has very, very small defects.  How many verys equal one negligible?

[pickycollector]

On 5/26/2023 at 5:19 PM, mjoeyoung said:

How exactly are these overgraded?  They seem to have less defects than your average 9.0 and more than a 9.6.  The mis-cut is definitely "ugly" but I don't think it affects these grades.  It does illustrate the problem with the current grading system though.  The grading notes state that the 9.2 has "light bends to cover and light spine stress lines to cover" and that the 9.4 has "very light spine stress lines to cover and very small crunch left bottom of whole book." I guess a 9.6 has very, very small defects.  How many verys equal one negligible?

Enlarge them and look at the lower right corner for the 9.2 and the lower left corner for the 9.4, I have CGC 8.0 copies that look better than both of those

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/26/2023 at 3:29 PM, pickycollector said:

Enlarge them and look at the lower right corner for the 9.2 and the lower left corner for the 9.4, I have CGC 8.0 copies that look better than both of those

I see them, but 9.2s and 9.4s have to have SOME defects, or else they would be 9.6s and 9.8s.  Both of those books appear to have zero defects on the back cover, and probably no interior defects, so all the defects are on the front cover.  If you zoom the images to approximate comic size, they do appear pretty small.  I would not be surprised if these books had been pressed, leaving the "look" of bad defects, but structurally they would be "okay."  Is a slight color breaking bend not as severe of a defect if it doesn't bend anymore?

I think there is a growing schism between current grading (which is still about the number and severity of defects) and how people are buying encapsulated books (the look of the front cover is becoming most important).  It appears that more and more people are displaying their books, which would put an emphasis on front cover.

The fact that there may be "ugly" graded books which are graded correctly is a failure of the grading system to evolve with the times.  Maybe we could add 9.1s,. 9.3s, 9.5s, and 9.7s for books that are technically the higher grade, but are ugly.  

[pickycollector]

On 5/26/2023 at 7:06 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I see them, but 9.2s and 9.4s have to have SOME defects, or else they would be 9.6s and 9.8s.  Both of those books appear to have zero defects on the back cover, and probably no interior defects, so all the defects are on the front cover.  If you zoom the images to approximate comic size, they do appear pretty small.  I would not be surprised if these books had been pressed, leaving the "look" of bad defects, but structurally they would be "okay."  Is a slight color breaking bend not as severe of a defect if it doesn't bend anymore?

I think there is a growing schism between current grading (which is still about the number and severity of defects) and how people are buying encapsulated books (the look of the front cover is becoming most important).  It appears that more and more people are displaying their books, which would put an emphasis on front cover.

The fact that there may be "ugly" graded books which are graded correctly is a failure of the grading system to evolve with the times.  Maybe we could add 9.1s,. 9.3s, 9.5s, and 9.7s for books that are technically the higher grade, but are ugly.  

If you really think that these two books are accurately graded at 9.2 and 9.4 then you may need to revise your grading standards 

[Funnybooks]

9.8 have defects

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/26/2023 at 5:56 PM, pickycollector said:

If you really think that these two books are accurately graded at 9.2 and 9.4 then you may need to revise your grading standards 

I don't have to think it, CGC HAS to think it, and enough people need to have "confidence in the grading provided by CGC, and ... confiden(ce) in the incremental grading differences." (Microchip)

I guess you could purchase those books and send them back to CGC and demand lower grades.  

 

[pickycollector]

On 5/26/2023 at 9:20 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I don't have to think it, CGC HAS to think it, and enough people need to have "confidence in the grading provided by CGC, and ... confiden(ce) in the incremental grading differences." (Microchip)

I guess you could purchase those books and send them back to CGC and demand lower grades.  

 

 

I know when I am losing my time and we are getting off topic here so let's agree to disagree and have a nice evening.

[mjoeyoung]

On 5/26/2023 at 7:25 PM, pickycollector said:

 

I know when I am losing my time and we are getting off topic here so let's agree to disagree and have a nice evening.

Sorry!  I thought we were just having a little fun here.  I guess my sarcasm, and devil's advocating wasn't coming through.  Personally, I don't think those books look like what I "think" a 9.2 or 9.4 should look like.  I would not think that the corner crunch would be allowed on a 9.4, but, according to the The Official CGC Guide to Grading Comics that I just received in the mail, a book with a corner crunch can get a grade up to 9.6!  Again, according to the guide, a one inch crease on the front cover would drop a book down to a maximum of 8.0, but the crease on the 9.2 is only about 3/8 inch.  I would still think they are overgraded, but I'm a bit less sure than before I flipped through the guide.