Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 41 41

[1Cool]

On 9/9/2024 at 2:51 PM, VintageComics said:

Historically it's not high, but for recent history (and people's short memory) it is. Most 20 somethings will only remember the low rates of the last 20 years.

I bought my 1st home in '97 at those rates and it dropped over the entire term of my mortgage, which was great.

But speaking strictly in recent terms, it's hard for banks to make money from interest when people can't afford anything. Average house prices in the US have doubled in the last few years, food and fuel prices are through the roof. Prices are through the roof on everything. 

So the lowering of rates is just as much an incentive for people to spend more, to keep the money supply for banks going as anything else. hard to make profit from interest when nobody is spending money (commercial real estate collapse anybody?)

And you can see this reflected directly in the comic market. 

The rebound is happening in comics. All indicators point that out, but it's coinciding with the dropping of interest rates. 

It's really simple: Generally speaking, making money cheaper makes asset prices rise because people spend more of it.

That's exactly what happened during the pandemic in a roundabout way. Free money reduced the value of money, causing people to spend more of it.

So whether you introduce more money into the system, or lower interest rates, they both have similar effects on how people spend it. They spend more of it. 

What indicators are you using to formulate this opinion?  Talking about the ultra high grade market? The chart just posted are auctions of the top books in the hobby and I see a lot more reds than I see blacks or greens.  I don't see anyone talking about hot books in various threads and the Modern / Copper / Bronze markets don't seem to be rebounding but this is only based on watching E-Bay sales so I may not be seeing everything.  I'd like to argue that I'm seeing a leveling of most books but I still see a lot of weakness other than the hardest to find books and some ultra high grade markets like Horror or some DCs.  Buyers are still acting like it's a buyers market so I'm not sure why you think a rebound is happening.

[DC#]

On 9/8/2024 at 6:55 PM, DC# said:

A bit slow getting this done but here is a cross section of results from all sessions of the ComicLink Sept Featured Auction.    Some of my observations

- As usual, head scratchers to the high and low.   And some head scratcher GPA Last Sales

- Yes still lots of red - but maybe a bit more green and black on the left side of chart (vs last, 90- day and 12 month) and when you look GPA only comparisons on the right hand side.   Perhaps some stability than compared to 18-24 months ago?  That being said, these CL auctions can throw a monkey in your wrench of confidence.   Maybe the red on the chart really gets reduced when I stop comparing to 2022.   

- There are definitely opportunities in these auctions.   I tend to only bid on things that interest me - but maybe I should look more for the arbitrage opportunity.    Feel like CL is almost a wholesale auction for dealers.   Feels like you see a lot of these books pop up on other sellers shortly after CL closes.    

 

Fixed a few errors here and there - including the ASM 101 9.8 that was crazy low vs GPA (it actually beat last sale by 7%).     But here is another one that was a HUGE difference - Avengers #62 9.8.    There is only one sale on GPA from 2022 that was a whopping $19k - the Clink result was $3.7k.    Can anyone else confirm that Clink result?    The Heritage sale seems really high even for boom time but I guess there are only four 9.8s on the census..

 

 

[bc]

On 9/9/2024 at 5:15 PM, DC# said:

Fixed a few errors here and there - including the ASM 101 9.8 that was crazy low vs GPA (it actually beat last sale by 7%).     But here is another one that was a HUGE difference - Avengers #62 9.8.    There is only one sale on GPA from 2022 that was a whopping $19k - the Clink result was $3.7k.    Can anyone else confirm that Clink result?    The Heritage sale seems really high even for boom time but I guess there are only four 9.8s on the census..

 

 

Here's confirmation:

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FPREVIEW.ASP%3Fcode%3D2024aug%26pg%3D3%23Item_1785283&id=1785283&itemType=0

-bc

[Motor City Rob]

On 9/9/2024 at 2:51 PM, VintageComics said:

The rebound is happening in comics. All indicators point that out

What indicators? Most keys from Bronze, Silver, and Copper Age continue to drop, on average. As much as I'd love to see it, just curious why you think we're in the midst of a rebound? 

[rsouxlja7]

When you have a vested interest in a rebound it manifests itself 

Edited September 10 by rsouxlja7

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:28 PM, Motor City Rob said:

What indicators? Most keys from Bronze, Silver, and Copper Age continue to drop, on average. As much as I'd love to see it, just curious why you think we're in the midst of a rebound? 

there are no indicators. DC's data shows that, you don't even have to read it, just look at the color.  We haven't even seen a dead cat bounce. 

[Stefan_W]

Historic data is continuing to show books I want to sell are settling on the low side, while books I want to buy are continuing to go for more than I want to pay for them.

The trend line for all of this is completely flat across my comic collecting years. 

[Motor City Rob]

On 9/10/2024 at 9:03 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

there are no indicators. DC's data shows that, you don't even have to read it, just look at the color.  We haven't even seen a dead cat bounce. 

I agree completely. Was just hoping to get some insight from @VintageComics as to why they think ALL indicators are pointing towards a rebound???

[EastEnd1]

Other than super high grade silver keys, can't say I'm seeing a rebound either... perhaps signs of a flattening with silver... bronze/copper continued declines.  Though I'm not sure that August auction figures are a good measure... folks are a lot more focused on vacations than auctions.  I don't consign to auctions in July/August... too many distractions going on in people's lives.  The return to normalcy in the Fall should give a better indication and hopefully we will start seeing a broader rebound. 

[VintageComics]

On 9/10/2024 at 8:10 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

When you have a vested interest in a rebound it manifests itself 

I don't have a vested interest in a rebound. I'm not like the majority of hypocrites out there that you're used to, who pump and dump daily. 

On 9/8/2024 at 9:55 PM, DC# said:

- Yes still lots of red - but maybe a bit more green and black on the left side of chart (vs last, 90- day and 12 month) and when you look GPA only comparisons on the right hand side.   Perhaps some stability than compared to 18-24 months ago?  That being said, these CL auctions can throw a monkey in your wrench of confidence.   Maybe the red on the chart really gets reduced when I stop comparing to 2022.     

I tend to be ahead of the curve in most things.

I certainly was when we were discussing the now forbidden topic in the WC and ended up being more correct than incorrect about almost everything. That's probably why so many people wanted me locked out of the WC. People don't like being proven wrong. 

It's the way my brain works in everything, though. I tend to always leap forward to the furthest logical conclusion from a few early signals, and I use that same gut feeling in every decision I make, including comics. I'm a natural risk taker and it's served me well. I've risen to the top of my industry in both careers I've had. 

Most people aren't big risk takers. They play it safe, look for strong safety signals before wading back in and like the comfort of not being first in the water. 

That's not me. 

DC#'s statement above shows a signal of stability and he even states it.

Additionally, I spend more time on Con show floors than most people do in their living rooms, and as I mentioned earlier, some dealers have already been talking about it for some time on the show floor. I've noticed less willingness to discount, more "I'd rather hang onto it" and a tightening of availability of new inventory. All of these are different than 2 years ago where dealers would state upfront "I know I need to adjust the price".

Auctions are not accurate real time indicators and can't always be relied on. I mean, in a bull market or a falling market, they're easy to read because everyone is doing the same thing, but in a bear market, there's more uncertainty.

We see big books go cheap and we see cheap books go big. Dealers often buy books at auctions only to resell them more for later.

A perfect example is the ASM #1 CGC 9.6 in 2022 that went too cheap ($336K). Everyone was crying doom and gloom. I openly stated that someone probably picked it up and will flip it for more and sure enough it did sell for a lot more. Like 6 figures more. Then, another copy topped $500K a year after that.

My experience could just apply to the books I frequent as I tend to gravitate towards the mid to higher range of the markets. I could be totally wrong and am happy to admit it, but my gut is telling me we've bottomed out and started climbing - or least tried to start climbing which is even earlier than a visible rebound. 

Time will tell.

What happens in the next few months, economically speaking is really going to make and break not only the comic market, but every market everywhere.

[ThothAmon]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:08 PM, VintageComics said:

I tend to be ahead of the curve in most things

This made me do a little research and while I found no information on what percentage of Canadians believe themselves smarter than average (in the US it’s 65%) I did find this research enlightening. All in good fun mind you. https://www.livescience.com/21878-identify-arrogant-boss.html
 

[VintageComics]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:36 PM, ThothAmon said:

On 9/10/2024 at 3:08 PM, VintageComics said:

I tend to be ahead of the curve in most things

This made me do a little research and while I found no information on what percentage of Canadians believe themselves smarter than average (in the US it’s 65%) I did find this research enlightening. All in good fun mind you. https://www.livescience.com/21878-identify-arrogant-boss.html

The proof would be in the pudding, wouldn't it? 

More to the point, I don't consider myself smarter than anyone because being ahead of the curve is not necessarily just a matter of smart. It's a matter of action. 

I just have a very good BS meter, and I think it's because I'm psychologically a disagreeable personality (which means I don't just go along with the masses, I look for proof), and because of that, I tend to think forwardly in terms of forming conclusions by quickly extrapolating those conclusions from small signals that most people might ignore.

Finally, once I'm convinced of my conclusions, I tend to bet on it and it's successful more often than not.

You can call that entire process whatever you want but it's served me very well.

 

Edited September 10 by VintageComics

[mycomicshop]

For what it's worth--when we feel the market is declining, and we're making offers to buy collections, we'll calculate an estimated market value for the material, which is based mainly on backward-looking info (previous sales), and then apply a manual adjustment to take into account the fact that we think the market has declined some in the time since those previous sales took place, and account for the risk that the market continues to drop some in the months ahead. Eg maybe a reduction of 10-20% vs the number we'd use if we thought the market was completely flat and stable. That was relevant second half of 2022 and into 2023. Currently, I'm not doing any reduction like that, and it's been a good number of months since that was a concern for us.

[VintageComics]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:50 PM, mycomicshop said:

For what it's worth--when we feel the market is declining, and we're making offers to buy collections, we'll calculate an estimated market value for the material, which is based mainly on backward-looking info (previous sales), and then apply a manual adjustment to take into account the fact that we think the market has declined some in the time since those previous sales took place, and account for the risk that the market continues to drop some in the months ahead. Eg maybe a reduction of 10-20% vs the number we'd use if we thought the market was completely flat and stable. That was relevant second half of 2022 and into 2023. Currently, I'm not doing any reduction like that, and it's been a good number of months since that was a concern for us.

Have you been cheating by peeking at my notes? 

[ThothAmon]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:50 PM, mycomicshop said:

For what it's worth--when we feel the market is declining, and we're making offers to buy collections, we'll calculate an estimated market value for the material, which is based mainly on backward-looking info (previous sales), and then apply a manual adjustment to take into account the fact that we think the market has declined some in the time since those previous sales took place, and account for the risk that the market continues to drop some in the months ahead. Eg maybe a reduction of 10-20% vs the number we'd use if we thought the market was completely flat and stable. That was relevant second half of 2022 and into 2023. Currently, I'm not doing any reduction like that, and it's been a good number of months since that was a concern for us.

Easy peasy. 
 

[Microchip]

On 9/11/2024 at 5:08 AM, VintageComics said:

Dealers often buy books at auctions only to resell them more for later.

This is a really big aspect a lot of people aren't aware of.

Also, the consensus here for a lot of boardies is that the auction houses represent the largest portion of book sales.   It's certainly the most easily quantifiable, which tends to skew our view around them.

It seems a lot of auction buying is supported by dealer's, who are filling inventory for convention sales.   

[Microchip]

On 9/11/2024 at 5:45 AM, VintageComics said:

Finally, once I'm convinced of my conclusions, I tend to bet on it and it's successful more often than not.

You are working with way more data points than the vast majority of people here.   And that kinda trumps opinions, and interesting graphs on individual auction houses.

I regularly try and get market chat out of the hardest working man in comicdom... albeit he's in Mexico for a week at the moment.   Harley never really says anything more than a sentence or two.

We are fortunate that your not the introverted type...  

 

 

Edited September 10 by Microchip

[VintageComics]

On 9/10/2024 at 6:25 PM, Microchip said:

You are working with way more data points than the vast majority of people here.   And that kinda trumps opinions, and interesting graphs on individual auction houses.

There are lots of areas of the market I don't have a grasp on. I don't think I know everything. I just talk to people...but not that many. I have a good feel for how sliding scales work and I just factor all the information into my cranial computer and it spits out gut feelings that are usually right. 

For example, I don't weigh all people's opinions the same when I talk to them. I take into account what I know about them, but when a few solid, big dealers who don't discount much no matter how much you buy from them started to tell me the market has rebounded, it rung true to me. 

On 9/10/2024 at 6:25 PM, Microchip said:

I regularly try and get market chat out of the hardest working man in comicdom... albeit he's in Mexico for a week at the moment.   Harley never really says anything more than a sentence or two.

Harley is very to the point, but he's also a straight shooter. He answers your questions directly. I like Harley. He's actually a genuinely good guy as far as I'm concerned. 

On 9/10/2024 at 6:25 PM, Microchip said:

We are fortunate that your not the introverted type...  

Well, I do feel bad for the people who always challenge me and end up being wrong. 

[Microchip]

A slight  here.   GPA have put an article, the GPA team on how you'd best spend $100k on funny books.

https://www.thecollectorhub.xyz/articles/if-i-had-a-100k-to-spend

 

Even on todays declining values, you couldn't get all 10 books. even if you were buying 0.5 grades for all of them!

10. Journey into Mystery #83 (1962) - The first appearance of Thor. This is a classic key issue in Marvel's history. 

 

9. Marvel Comics #1 (1939) - The first comic book published by Marvel, featuring the first appearance of characters like the Human Torch and Sub-Mariner.

 

8. Avengers #1 (1963) - This issue features the first appearance of the Avengers. Its value has risen, especially with the popularity of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

 

7. Showcase #4 (1956) - The first appearance of Barry Allen as the Flash, which marked the beginning of the Silver Age of comics.

 

6. Incredible Hulk #1 (1962) - The first appearance of the Hulk. Another key issue that would be a great investment.

 

5. Fantastic Four #1 (1961) - The first appearance of the Fantastic Four, marking the beginning of Marvel's Silver Age.

 

4. X-Men #1 (1963) - The first appearance of the X-Men. This issue is highly sought after and would be a fantastic addition to your collection. 

 

3. Amazing Fantasy #15 (1962) - The first appearance of Spider-Man. This is a must-have for any serious comic collector and can be within your budget for a lower-grade copy.

 

2. Detective Comics #27 (1939) - The first appearance of Batman. It's another iconic issue that can fetch high prices depending on its grade.

 

1. Action Comics #1 (1938) - This is the first appearance of Superman, often regarded as the holy grail of comic books. Condition-dependent, this could take up the entire budget or more. I’d be happy to possess a one-book collection, but what’s the fun in that?

 

Edited September 11 by Microchip

[KCOComics]

 

I'll just add, this is the first time in awhile I've started to jump into some bigger books. 

I'm not sure if things will go up or down, but when I look at prices of books i gave up on 2 or 3 years ago, it's starting to feel pretty reasonable.   So I'm going to fairly aggressively try to upgrade a few books over the coming months.