Market is just crazy stupid right now 6 6

[the blob]

50 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

 

I looked, but couldn't find the part of the census that tells you why everyone submitted.

 

People generally don't think spending $25 to get back a book possibly worth $25 back. Some people are happy burning money. It isn't like slabbing your FF 5.

[the blob]

6 hours ago, OuterboroGuy said:

My portfolio value on GPA "My Comics" has been going up by $500 a day for the past two weeks.  If this keeps up I'll have another $100k by New Year's.  I know, like all bubbles, this will pop . . . but it is fun while it lasts.

Each book has its own trajectory. Just as likely stiff that jumped may stagnate and a different group will double etc. Personally I am only buying stuff that has not gone crazy this year.  Mostly.

[Domo Arigato]

3 minutes ago, the blob said:

People generally don't think spending $25 to get back a book possibly worth $25 back. Some people are happy burning money. It isn't like slabbing your FF 5.

And yet, a lot of people do it. 

Hence.....my original comment.

 

[the blob]

Have marvel BA monster books slowed? Seems like the new blood may not care about that stuff 

[the blob]

1 minute ago, Domo Arigato said:

And yet, a lot of people do it. 

Hence.....my original comment.

 

When? Earlier in cgc yes when people made a lot of clueless submissions. New submitters now who think their 8.0-9.2 is a 9.8 too. I buy these books. Not the vast bulk of quantity submitters nowadays. 

[the blob]

Not many roll the dice on these booms

[Domo Arigato]

52 minutes ago, the blob said:

When? Earlier in cgc yes when people made a lot of clueless submissions. New submitters now who think their 8.0-9.2 is a 9.8 too. I buy these books. Not the vast bulk of quantity submitters nowadays. 

Who gave a time frame?  And who said anything about bulk submitters only?  You keep adding qualifiers that have nothing to do with my original comments.

I simply pointed out that of all the copies submitted, more came back as 9.8 than any other grade except for 9.6 (I still think it's unusual and not the norm for the vast majority of books).

You replied, "Why would anyone spend the money to get that back in 9.2?"

I then pointed out that 82 people submitted that book and got a 9.2 or lower on it (out of 255 universal grades......so right at about 1/3 of the total).  I didn't say why or when they submitted them.  You asked why anyone would.....and I simply pointed out that a lot did.

I'm still not sure of the point you're trying to make based on my original comment.

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Domo Arigato

[KPR Comics]

On 5/6/2021 at 9:12 AM, fantastic_four said:

Back in 2010 we had one deep pocket setting records on almost every highest-graded Silver and Bronze Age Marvel.  That person was putting in bids up to at least quadruple the most paid up to that point, but I don't think anyone ever knew just how high the bids were.  In some cases prices were 10x what had been seen before.  We do know that they were so outlandishly high that ComicLink contacted the bidder to make sure they didn't type extra numbers into their bid by accident, and the bidder (or their representative) said that it was an accurate bid and they just wanted to ensure they got the comic.  Word at the time was that it was a well-known celebrity, which if true probably means someone else was bidding for them.  I never heard anyone divulge who it was--my best guess was Samuel L. Jackson, but I have no actual evidence of that, it's just my best educated guess since he said around the same time in an interview that he's a comic collector, his heyday in the MCU was ramping up at the time, and he's easily rich enough so that dropping a few million on Silver and Bronze Age Marvels would be completely within his reach--but whoever it was they created very large outliers in sales data at the time.  If that person was going for a book at auction and someone else bid the book up it would just go for a new record price because the bids being entered well in advance were so incredibly high.

This time is clearly different.  The deep pocket from 2010 would only bid on one copy of a book, and after that the next sale would be significantly lower.  It was obvious that one guy was just building his collection at that time and paying insane prices to do it, so I knew you could just wait him out and go for the next copy.  A few times a second very-high bidder would come in on a book to bid it up to a truly insane price that was triple or quintuple the previous high, but not often.  This time we have what appears to be a set of people bidding on a variety of titles, ages, and grades who clearly lack all perspective of supply and demand for any given issue.  In that way it reminds me of the lack of market savvy of the 2010 buyer, but this time it looks like a group of people who probably don't have millions to drop on comics, but they do have tens of thousands.

It reminds me directly of almost the same phenomenon seen in the stock market that most famously went into inflating Gamestop's stock to insane new highs.  I never fully understood that beyond the idea that it was some sort of semi-educated Robin Hood mentality at the time of saving companies that a relatively small group of buyers thought needed saving mixed in with a much larger group who were just following the hype.  What's driving this surge in prices is unclear, but I describe it as "Gamestop-y" wondering if there are any similarities between these surges and the ones seen in the stock market since they started around the same time.

But if these 2010 sales were auctions, doesn't that mean there was at least one other bidder?

[Domo Arigato]

32 minutes ago, the blob said:

37 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

And yet, a lot of people do it. 

Hence.....my original comment.

When? Earlier in cgc yes when people made a lot of clueless submissions. New submitters now who think their 8.0-9.2 is a 9.8 too. I buy these books. Not the vast bulk of quantity submitters nowadays. 

The five most recent sales of this book in CGC 9.2 from GPA.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Domo Arigato

[the blob]

24 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

The five most recent sales of this book in CGC 9.2 from GPA.

 

 

and how much were those sales? i have no recent sales data beyond one, so i have no idea how much it goes for. it just seems like the sort of book that wouldn't get much. but maybe it makes sense financially. if it is a $100 book i suppose it is worthwhile for someone. the last sale was $84. i dunno, i guess it might be worth it, maybe these were put in piles of 9.2 pre-screens, who knows? is this the book, in that grade, folks are really taking a chance on all that often? i suppose if i did a massive pre-screen i might be looking at $80 and up values.

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by the blob

[the blob]

but a 9.4 sold for under $70 in february, so I'm not sure those submissions made much sense when made unless people think it is worth it to get back a $40-50 book. this doesn't make sense to me. doesn't alter my alternative "noob" theory... folks get a $150 credit to use and maybe they make dumb choices, who knows? who here would be slabbing this book for a likely $40 sale in 2017/18?

Edited May 11, 2021 by the blob

[Domo Arigato]

1 minute ago, the blob said:

and how much were those sales? i have no recent sales data, so i have no idea how much it goes for. it just seems like the sort of book that wouldn't get much. but maybe it makes sense financially. if it is a $100 book i suppose it is worthwhile for someone.

Here's a breakdown of the 5 most recent CGC 9.2 sales

2021..............9.2 graded 3/2020................$84

2020..............9.2 graded 10/2020..............$60

2020..............9.2 graded 1/2017................$36

2020..............9.2 graded 4/2020................$54

2020..............9.2 graded 12/2019..............$40

 

[the blob]

1 minute ago, Domo Arigato said:

Here's a breakdown of the 5 most recent CGC 9.2 sales

2021..............9.2 graded 3/2020................$84

2020..............9.2 graded 10/2020..............$60

2020..............9.2 graded 1/2017................$36

2020..............9.2 graded 4/2020................$54

2020..............9.2 graded 12/2019..............$40

 

yeah, made no sense to grade it until very recently and even then below the cut-off for most folks here. but we have a lot of dumb people in this country, so perhaps you are right. i expect people to run numbers and think, but many are not capable. people are paying multiples of cover price for unicorn 1 when you can buy it at cover price directly from the publisher. 

 

[Domo Arigato]

5 minutes ago, the blob said:

but a 9.4 sold for under $70 in february, so I'm not sure those submissions made much sense when made unless people think it is worth it to get back a $40-50 book. this doesn't make sense to me. doesn't alter my alternative "noob" theory... folks get a $150 credit to use and maybe they make dumb choices, who knows? who here would be slabbing this book for a likely $40 sale in 2017/18?

I'm not saying it makes any sense.  Very little in this hobby makes much sense to me anymore.  My original point was simply saying that it seemed strange to me that a book would have more 9.8's than any other grade (other than 9.6).  It appears that it does happen on various books......I just think it's unusual for the majority of books and hadn't noticed it before. 

 

[the blob]

1 minute ago, Domo Arigato said:

I'm not saying it makes any sense.  Very little in this hobby makes much sense to me anymore.  My original point was simply saying that it seemed strange to me that a book would have more 9.8's than any other grade (other than 9.6).  It appears that it does happen on various books......I just think it's unusual for the majority of books and hadn't noticed it before. 

 

literally the first 5 or 6 books I checked 9.8 outnumbered all the others, sometimes all combined, and these were books I knew nothing about the census on (shockingly I own a couple and never bothered looking, I just wanted the book and figured 50 9.8s or 500, it didn't matter)

[Domo Arigato]

3 minutes ago, the blob said:

yeah, made no sense to grade it until very recently and even then below the cut-off for most folks here. but we have a lot of dumb people in this country, so perhaps you are right. i expect people to run numbers and think, but many are not capable. people are paying multiples of cover price for unicorn 1 when you can buy it at cover price directly from the publisher. 

I absolutely agree that there's a lot of rampant stupidity out there.  

[Domo Arigato]

2 minutes ago, the blob said:

literally the first 5 or 6 books I checked 9.8 outnumbered all the others, sometimes all combined, and these were books I knew nothing about the census on (shockingly I own a couple and never bothered looking, I just wanted the book and figured 50 9.8s or 500, it didn't matter)

I understand that.....but below are my first two quotes regarding this topic in the thread.  I guarantee you, out of the first 100 books I might check out for myself, 99 of them wouldn't have more 9.8's than almost every other grade on the census.  If valiantman can still run numbers off of the census.....I'm still thinking that the total number of 9.8's would be dwarfed by the total number of books graded in 9.2 or less.

 

On 5/6/2021 at 4:39 PM, Domo Arigato said:

Out of all the copies submitted, more came back as 9.8 than any other grade except for 9.6. 

Don't think I've ever seen that on another book before......or at least I haven't noticed it.

 

On 5/6/2021 at 8:36 PM, Domo Arigato said:

But 82 people did submit books to get a 9.2 grade or lower on it.

I just haven't noticed other books with that kind of a spread on their grades.....but I also have a very narrow focus to my collecting.

 

 

[the blob]

2 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

I absolutely agree that there's a lot of rampant stupidity out there.  

The folks on this board seem to run the numbers. It seems like the folks who submit a lot of these books are doing the same. I assume there is no data on what CGC's business looks like in terms of small time submitters and big submitters. we have guys here who make a living via a lot of submissions. with that said most newbie's seem to have stories of their early submissions and the shock and horror that nothing was a 9.8...

For the record, I have never submitted anything, because I KNOW I need to protect myself via a pre-screen on these sorts of books because I have seen beautiful moderns I thought were 9.6 - 9.8 come back 9.4s and books I thought were 9.2 come back 9.6 (reports from buyers). Hence, I never say anything is better than a 9.4. I was actually putting together my first pile and then the price increases came so fast I didn't have time to submit the paperwork

[Domo Arigato]

28 minutes ago, the blob said:

The folks on this board seem to run the numbers. It seems like the folks who submit a lot of these books are doing the same. I assume there is no data on what CGC's business looks like in terms of small time submitters and big submitters. we have guys here who make a living via a lot of submissions. with that said most newbie's seem to have stories of their early submissions and the shock and horror that nothing was a 9.8...

For the record, I have never submitted anything, because I KNOW I need to protect myself via a pre-screen on these sorts of books because I have seen beautiful moderns I thought were 9.6 - 9.8 come back 9.4s and books I thought were 9.2 come back 9.6 (reports from buyers). Hence, I never say anything is better than a 9.4. I was actually putting together my first pile and then the price increases came so fast I didn't have time to submit the paperwork

You mentioned the "vast bulk of quantity submitters nowadays" in a different post......but I'm not seeing the numbers for that.  We were talking about CGC 9.8 grades on Iron Man #150......I commented that I thought it was strange (at least from my experience) that there are more CGC 9.8 copies on the census than any other grade (except for 9.6).  If it was all about bulk submitters doing pre-screens nowadays for 9.8's in order to make money on them.....then one would think there would be a lot of GPA sales data over the last few years.  No sales recorded this year.  Four sales recorded for 2020.  Two sales recorded for 2019.  

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Domo Arigato

[ADAMANTIUM]

8 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

You mentioned the "vast bulk of quantity submitters nowadays" in a different post......but I'm not seeing the numbers for that.  We're talking about CGC 9.8 grades on Iron Man #150......and I commented that I thought it was strange (at least from my experience) that there are more CGC 9.8 copies on the census than any other grade (except for 9.6).  If it was all about bulk submitters doing pre-screens nowadays for 9.8's in order to make money on them.....then one would think there would be a lot of GPA sales data over the last few years.  No sales recorded this year.  Four sales recorded for 2020.  Two sales recorded for 2019.  

 

Yes he didnt understand that you meant more of 9.6 than any other grade, among other things, if itll help

I've sometimes tried to get over the major spike of the census before, so I may be able to name a few

Asm 299 and 298 come to mind, it's that way with bronze too, if I'm wrong ok, but I want to say some of the Phoenix run in the early 100's

Edited May 11, 2021 by ADAMANTIUM