Market is just crazy stupid right now 6 6

[ADAMANTIUM]

Looks like the census has adjusted the only ones I could find was xmen 105 and or 106

But used to be 104 107 and 109 as well, glad I sprung for 9.6's but now the peak is 9.4

Unless you meant mor 9.6's than all other grades combined

Then I'm sorry to prolong the confusion  eek !

[Domo Arigato]

30 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

Yes he didnt understand that you meant more of 9.6 than any other grade, among other things, if itll help

I've sometimes tried to get over the major spike of the census before, so I may be able to name a few

Asm w99 and 298 come to mind, it's that way with bronze too, if I'm wrong ok, but I want to say some of the Phoenix run in the early 100's

Not really.  Let's try this again.  Below is what I said.  That's all I said.  I didn't say it couldn't happen on any other book.  I didn't say it hasn't happened on any other book.  I can keep quoting my original comments.....but they aren't going to change. 

I simply said that I hadn't noticed it before and thought it was unusual.  It was a simple comment about my experience and I still think it's unusual.  I think the vast majority of books don't share this trait.  And especially the books that I collect......hence my simple comment about it.  Just a comment.  Not a leather glove across the face.  A comment.

But......I digress...... let's keep beating this horse.

 

My original post:

On 5/6/2021 at 4:39 PM, Domo Arigato said:

Out of all the copies submitted, more came back as 9.8 than any other grade except for 9.6. 

Don't think I've ever seen that on another book before......or at least I haven't noticed it.

Then the blob said, "Pre screen.  Why would anyone spend the money to get that back in 9.2?"......and I replied:

On 5/6/2021 at 8:36 PM, Domo Arigato said:

But 82 people did submit books to get a 9.2 grade or lower on it.

I just haven't noticed other books with that kind of a spread on their grades.....but I also have a very narrow focus to my collecting.

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Domo Arigato

[THE_BEYONDER]

[ADAMANTIUM]

5 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

Not really.  Let's try this again.  Below is what I said.  That's all I said.  I didn't say it couldn't happen on any other book.  I didn't say it hasn't happened on any other book.  I can keep quoting my original comments.....but they aren't going to change. 

I simply said that I hadn't noticed it before and thought is was unusual.  It was a simple comment about my experience and I still think it's unusual.  I think the vast majority of books don't share this trait.  And especially the books that I collect......hence my simple comment about it.  Just a comment.  Not a leather glove across the face.  A comment.

But......I digress...... let's keep beating this horse.

 

 

 

I'm not saying anything was wrong with your observation 

Or that it should be so obvious that it is a globe across your face either though....

I was letting you know of others so you'd know

If it helps 9.6 being the most IS more rare, so we took interest in the topic, not to grill you, I just wanted to let you know

Given the sparks that flamed the ASM 301 in 9.8 to values beyond my reach,  what you observed was an interesting topic is all. So no worries

Edited May 11, 2021 by ADAMANTIUM

[Domo Arigato]

1 minute ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

8m not saying anything was wrong with your observation 

Or that it should be so obvious that it is a globe across your face either though....

I was letting you know of others so you'd know

If it helps 9.6 being the most IS more rare, so we took interest in the topic, not to grill you, I just wanted to let you know

Given the sparks that flamed the ASM 301 I  9.8 to values beyond my reach,  what you observed was an interesting topic is all. So no worries

This post make me hate every single gut winding throughout your entire body.

You're dead to me.

(But we're still on this Friday for dinner and light petting)

[ADAMANTIUM]

1 minute ago, Domo Arigato said:

This post make me hate every single gut winding throughout your entire body.

You're dead to me.

(But we're still on this Friday for dinner and light petting)

Yes it was then edited to make it more readable for you to peruse, but be sure to wear gloves!

 

[fantastic_four]

2 hours ago, KPR Comics said:

On 5/6/2021 at 9:12 AM, fantastic_four said:

Back in 2010 we had one deep pocket setting records on almost every highest-graded Silver and Bronze Age Marvel.  That person was putting in bids up to at least quadruple the most paid up to that point, but I don't think anyone ever knew just how high the bids were.  In some cases prices were 10x what had been seen before.  We do know that they were so outlandishly high that ComicLink contacted the bidder to make sure they didn't type extra numbers into their bid by accident, and the bidder (or their representative) said that it was an accurate bid and they just wanted to ensure they got the comic.  Word at the time was that it was a well-known celebrity, which if true probably means someone else was bidding for them.  I never heard anyone divulge who it was--my best guess was Samuel L. Jackson, but I have no actual evidence of that, it's just my best educated guess since he said around the same time in an interview that he's a comic collector, his heyday in the MCU was ramping up at the time, and he's easily rich enough so that dropping a few million on Silver and Bronze Age Marvels would be completely within his reach--but whoever it was they created very large outliers in sales data at the time.  If that person was going for a book at auction and someone else bid the book up it would just go for a new record price because the bids being entered well in advance were so incredibly high.

This time is clearly different.  The deep pocket from 2010 would only bid on one copy of a book, and after that the next sale would be significantly lower.  It was obvious that one guy was just building his collection at that time and paying insane prices to do it, so I knew you could just wait him out and go for the next copy.  A few times a second very-high bidder would come in on a book to bid it up to a truly insane price that was triple or quintuple the previous high, but not often.  This time we have what appears to be a set of people bidding on a variety of titles, ages, and grades who clearly lack all perspective of supply and demand for any given issue.  In that way it reminds me of the lack of market savvy of the 2010 buyer, but this time it looks like a group of people who probably don't have millions to drop on comics, but they do have tens of thousands.

It reminds me directly of almost the same phenomenon seen in the stock market that most famously went into inflating Gamestop's stock to insane new highs.  I never fully understood that beyond the idea that it was some sort of semi-educated Robin Hood mentality at the time of saving companies that a relatively small group of buyers thought needed saving mixed in with a much larger group who were just following the hype.  What's driving this surge in prices is unclear, but I describe it as "Gamestop-y" wondering if there are any similarities between these surges and the ones seen in the stock market since they started around the same time.

Expand  

But if these 2010 sales were auctions, doesn't that mean there was at least one other bidder?

It does indeed, but presumably most of the books this guy went for never went to insane levels.  Many of us going for top-Census Silver Age Marvels at the time knew that if a new top-Census book was hitting the market for the first time in a year or so that this guy was DEFINITELY going for it, so I wondered if people were shilling him up.  The one that blew me away because I also wanted it was a 9.6 copy of FF #26--it went for $24,200 in June 2009.  The sale is still visible in GPA; I think it sold on PedigreeComics.com but I forget.  The high before that was $5K, and the high since then has been $9500.  A copy sold this year for $4440, so that's one of many examples where this deep pocket set records that may NEVER be eclipsed, or at least aren't likely to for quite a while.  I really can't imagine any realistic situation that explains that sale or many others in that time period other than pure, premeditated shilling given that his bidding pattern was predictable.

[ADAMANTIUM]

I wish I knew more 9.6's that the 9.8 was still affordable, been a thought in me brain for a while now, even now 9.4's as the highest might be old enough in age and cheap enough to go for 9.6

Marvel premiere #16 and other 2nd appearances come to mind from the bronze age

This part of the thread just makes me realize how much I go off of memory.

I really should have written some of this down

So experiencing my own frustrations now for all to read

[Domo Arigato]

32 minutes ago, fantastic_four said:

It does indeed, but presumably most of the books this guy went for never went to insane levels.  Many of us going for top-Census Silver Age Marvels at the time knew that if a new top-Census book was hitting the market for the first time in a year or so that this guy was DEFINITELY going for it, so I wondered if people were shilling him up.  The one that blew me away because I also wanted it was a 9.6 copy of FF #26--it went for $24,200 in June 2009.  The sale is still visible in GPA; I think it sold on PedigreeComics.com but I forget.  The high before that was $5K, and the high since then has been $9500.  A copy sold this year for $4440, so that's one of many examples where this deep pocket set records that may NEVER be eclipsed, or at least aren't likely to for quite a while.  I really can't imagine any realistic situation that explains that sale or many others in that time period other than pure, premeditated shilling given that his bidding pattern was predictable.

I remember that guy and his crazy bids.........but that one is just insane.

Here's the GPA website trying to put his winning bid for that book on their graph feature........can anyone spot it? 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Domo Arigato

[ADAMANTIUM]

4 minutes ago, Domo Arigato said:

I remember that guy and his crazy bids.........but that one is just insane.

Here's the GPA website trying to put his winning bid for that book on their graph feature........can anyone spot it. 

"Intensifies!" Haha 

[Domo Arigato]

Quote

Market is just crazy stupid right now

Just another example I happened to spot.

Wolverine #1 (1988) graded CGC 9.8

GPA shows an average sale price of $200 over the 187 recorded sales in 2020.

The 3 most recent sales that GPA recorded this month went for $785.....$865.....and $865.

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Domo Arigato

[Bludriver]

12 hours ago, Domo Arigato said:

Just another example I happened to spot.

Wolverine #1 (1988) graded CGC 9.8

GPA shows an average sale price of $200 over the 187 recorded sales in 2020.

The 3 most recent sales that GPA recorded this month went for $785.....$865.....and $865.

 

This one is just plain insane. In 2 months this has almost tripled in price.

Even a 9.0 is worth getting graded as the last sale was $140

Edited May 12, 2021 by Bludriver

[DavidTheDavid]

51 minutes ago, Bludriver said:

This one is just plain insane. In 2 months this has almost tripled in price.

Even a 9.0 is worth getting graded as the last sale was $140

I remember when this was published. Comic shops were pushing the hype, and I walked out with multiple copies. Everyone was gobbling it up. I can only imagine how many of these are still out there.

[lizards2]

48 minutes ago, DavidTheDavid said:

I remember when this was published. Comic shops were pushing the hype, and I walked out with multiple copies. Everyone was gobbling it up. I can only imagine how many of these are still out there.

You're old  

[THE_BEYONDER]

8 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

You're old  

[djpinkpanther67]

1 hour ago, DavidTheDavid said:

I remember when this was published. Comic shops were pushing the hype, and I walked out with multiple copies. Everyone was gobbling it up. I can only imagine how many of these are still out there.

The 9.9 in the May clink auction will be fun to watch 

[the blob]

17 hours ago, Domo Arigato said:

Not really.  Let's try this again.  Below is what I said.  That's all I said.  I didn't say it couldn't happen on any other book.  I didn't say it hasn't happened on any other book.  I can keep quoting my original comments.....but they aren't going to change. 

I simply said that I hadn't noticed it before and thought it was unusual.  It was a simple comment about my experience and I still think it's unusual.  I think the vast majority of books don't share this trait.  And especially the books that I collect......hence my simple comment about it.  Just a comment.  Not a leather glove across the face.  A comment.

But......I digress...... let's keep beating this horse.

 

My original post:

Then the blob said, "Pre screen.  Why would anyone spend the money to get that back in 9.2?"......and I replied:

 

I don't know what anyone else's point was, but my response to your surprise that the book had more 9.8s than other grades was simply that it likely got that way due to pre-screens because most folks would not knowingly slab that book if they thought it was a likely 9.2, at least not until very recently, and that it would have been financially illogical to do so, at least until very recently. Pre-screens are going to jack up the number of 9.8s vs. 9.6 and 9.4 because it is quite likely many books wind up staying raw rather than becoming slabbed 9.6 or 9.4 (and maybe less so right now as more and more 9.6 and 9.4 are worth it at current prices, but were not a year ago). Really, that's it. Iron Man 150 is not "more common" in 9.8 grade than 9.6 or 9.4, just like Spawn 1 is not more common in 9.8 condition or any number of the MANY books where 9.8s outnumber 9.6, etc., it is just that more people were willing to pay cgc fees to get back a label that says 9.8 and the way many do that is through a pre-screen.

 

[fantastic_four]

1 hour ago, djpinkpanther67 said:

The 9.9 in the May clink auction will be fun to watch 

[BlowUpTheMoon]

20 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

[Domo Arigato]

4 hours ago, the blob said:

I don't know what anyone else's point was, but my response to your surprise that the book had more 9.8s than other grades was simply that it likely got that way due to pre-screens because most folks would not knowingly slab that book if they thought it was a likely 9.2, at least not until very recently, and that it would have been financially illogical to do so, at least until very recently. Pre-screens are going to jack up the number of 9.8s vs. 9.6 and 9.4 because it is quite likely many books wind up staying raw rather than becoming slabbed 9.6 or 9.4 (and maybe less so right now as more and more 9.6 and 9.4 are worth it at current prices, but were not a year ago). Really, that's it. Iron Man 150 is not "more common" in 9.8 grade than 9.6 or 9.4, just like Spawn 1 is not more common in 9.8 condition or any number of the MANY books where 9.8s outnumber 9.6, etc., it is just that more people were willing to pay cgc fees to get back a label that says 9.8 and the way many do that is through a pre-screen.

 

And my point was not that it doesn't happen.....just that I hadn't noticed it before, most likely because of the books I collect.  Really, that's it.  You then asked who would submit that book in 9.2 which seemed to indicate you didn't think anybody would.  So I pointed out that 82 people did submit for 9.2 or less (about 1/3 of all the submissions).  Then you started adding qualifiers to your statement.....like they were probably submitted early in CGC's history by people who didn't know any better before all the bulk pre screen submitters hit the scene.  I then pointed out that the five most recent 9.2 sales of that issue in GPA were all submitted recently....2017, 2019, and three in 2020.  You then pointed out that it might now be a book worth submitting in 9.2.....so I pointed out that only one of those five recent sales was above $60 and two of them in 2020 sold for only $36 and $40.  And even the most recent sale in March that hit $82 wouldn't affect the census for a good long while due to the backlog at CGC. 

You also keep making statements that you can't really know for sure.......like "most folks would not knowingly slab that book if they thought it was a likely 9.2".  You don't know that.  You can't know that.  You're basing your assumptions on what you would do and based solely on monetary considerations.  As you pointed out, many of those upper grades could be from bulk pre-screen submitters.  So, it's possible that only a few people did bulk submissions for the majority of those upper grades (perhaps someone submitted a stack from a warehouse find)......while it's much more likely that 82 different people probably submitted books for the lower grades for various reasons.  Perhaps their childhood copies.  Or perhaps they just liked the book and wanted to get their copy graded.  We see this all the time on the forum.....new members come in here asking about submitting books from their collection that really don't have the monetary value to justify it.....other than the fact that they just want their books slabbed.  It's entirely possible that MORE folks submitted the book in lower grades than those that submitted for the upper most tiers.  So, I guess I see the points you were trying to make.......I just don't necessarily agree with them.

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Domo Arigato