Measuring scarcity 1 1

[Get Marwood & I]

On 10/18/2021 at 7:57 PM, paqart said:

Getting back to scarcity, I just reluctantly paid $190 for this. It is the only copy I've ever seen for sale. My understanding is that Get Marwood &I might have multiples of this but these days, when I look for 18 months and find one copy, it's scarce. There's a copy of #11 in 9.8 I'd like to get also but the seller wants $345, which is more than I'm comfortable spending. Even this was a stretch, particularly after I saw it sit on eBay for 2-3 months with no takers. Meaning, I'm the only dumbbell interested enough to pay this price. That said, I don't know how I would have gotten it otherwise, and my eyes are getting sore from looking at the little price boxes in online ads.

 

My other 1999-2000 Marvel price variants are at CGC for grading. They've been there since March, so I hope they get graded soon and I can put this together with the $2.49 and $1.99 copy.

So what is the scarcity anyway? I think these $2.29 variants are much more scarce than 1:100 printings but it's hard to know for sure.

If I did you could have one. I only have one Spidey USPV now - coincidentally, the $2.49 copy which I may send to CGC at some point:

When I was Spidey collecting back in the day, and these books were unknown to the majority, I gathered a few $2.29 copies along the way to building the full set. I found them easier to get than the $2.49s. But that was some time ago, and things may have changed now. Here is my old record of what I paid:

Since I started the thread on these, summarised here, and documented the full issue range for all the known Marvel titles (for the first time I believe) a lot more collectors have caught on to them and have likely begun hoovering them up online and in the wild. I did the above online from the UK.

It's hard to make an estimate, but these are very hard to find books. Remember, it took some time before I finally found a copy of the regular $1.99 newsstand copy of Thor #17 and that was when a number of US collectors were on the case. So some of these books are right up there when it comes to scarcity. 

[Get Marwood & I]

Now if we're talking real scarcity, this book is the only copy I have ever seen, and despite posting about it in my various UK Price Variant threads, no one else has ever come forward with a second copy:

They will now of course!

So how do you rate the scarcity of that? A first printing 1960s Marvel, that is currently the only known copy in existence?

It doesn't follow that it is worth a fortune though. And I could post a whole host of other books for which my copy is the only one I have ever personally seen. 

[ADAMANTIUM]

All I remember is that I sold a raw to a boardie, I don't remember which price it was, only that it was the one he was looking for it  

I am trying an ASM #600's run, specifically #601-611 I have maybe 5-6, still need 5-6 more  

along with Batman in the #600's but specifically 608-619, of which I only have the "keys", and all the underlying I "want", I can't bring myself to foot the bill!  

[paqart]

On 10/18/2021 at 3:57 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

All I remember is that I sold a raw to a boardie, I don't remember which price it was, only that it was the one he was looking for it  

I am trying an ASM #600's run, specifically #601-611 I have maybe 5-6, still need 5-6 more  

along with Batman in the #600's but specifically 608-619, of which I only have the "keys", and all the underlying I "want", I can't bring myself to foot the bill!  

Newsstand only?

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 10/18/2021 at 4:22 PM, paqart said:

Newsstand only?

Not sure, I thought it was one of the price Edition, isnt there a 2.19 and a 2.49? Or something like that for that issue?

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 10/18/2021 at 4:50 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

On 10/18/2021 at 4:22 PM, paqart said:

Newsstand only?

Not sure, I thought it was one of the price Edition, isnt there a 2.19 and a 2.49? Or something like that for that issue?

It was which ever the guy needed, definitely a Newsstand,  you could probably find the book in modern Newsstand threads, yet tbh I dont remember if it what the price was...

[Qalyar]

On 10/18/2021 at 2:26 PM, Get Marwood & I said:

Now if we're talking real scarcity, this book is the only copy I have ever seen, and despite posting about it in my various UK Price Variant threads, no one else has ever come forward with a second copy:

They will now of course!

So how do you rate the scarcity of that? A first printing 1960s Marvel, that is currently the only known copy in existence?

It doesn't follow that it is worth a fortune though. And I could post a whole host of other books for which my copy is the only one I have ever personally seen. 

It occurs to me that, especially in the era of internet sales listings, this is the fundamental difference between rarity and scarcity, where rarity is a measure of how many physical copies of a book were produced (or, perhaps, still exist), and scarcity is a measure of how available a book is on the overall marketplace. If there were very few copies of a book produced, but (because no one really cares to hold onto them) a copy comes up for sale on some venue every 3-6 months, that book is rare, but it is not particularly scarce. On the other hand, there are also books with much higher production runs but that simply don't appear for sale (either due to black hole collection acquisition or a total lack of perceived value); such books may not be rare, but they are absolutely scarce.

Rarity, then, is mostly of academic interest. Scarcity represents the expected amount of time necessary to locate a copy. I feel that the Gerber system was an effort to measure rarity, and the tracking system MCS is attempting is an effort to measure scarcity. Neither one necessarily tracks value to any significant degree, of course. I own several books that you'd be hard-pressed to find for sale anywhere in the next year but that have effectively nil collector interest or value (and there are a couple of unloved convention exclusive variants that I want to add to my collection but have never even seen!).

As an aside, that pence copy of Battle is a sweet book.

[Tghutcn]

I tend to use the Elseworlds recalled edition of a good example of why you can’t measure scarcity accurately some sources state this book only having 600 exist and other’s 2000 who knows what’s actually correct it’s just estimates nothing more

[paqart]

On 10/18/2021 at 3:26 PM, Get Marwood & I said:

Now if we're talking real scarcity, this book is the only copy I have ever seen, and despite posting about it in my various UK Price Variant threads, no one else has ever come forward with a second copy:

They will now of course!

So how do you rate the scarcity of that? A first printing 1960s Marvel, that is currently the only known copy in existence?

It doesn't follow that it is worth a fortune though. And I could post a whole host of other books for which my copy is the only one I have ever personally seen. 

This may be the rarest comic I've ever owned. The image is from Heritage, I sold mine in 1980. I also owned a giveaway called "North Korea My Home" that was the first copy discovered. I reported it to Overstreet in person at a NY comic con in the late eighties/early nineties. I think of the Feature Book as more rare because it has greater collector interest and likely had a higher initial print run.

[rakehell]

On 10/18/2021 at 8:26 PM, Get Marwood & I said:

And I could post a whole host of other books for which my copy is the only one I have ever personally seen. 

[sagii]

Well a good marker for me in regards to golden age/atom age is HA's archives. In all the years they have been doing this (and even with added auctions in recent times) here are books that have only pass through their offices once or twice and a handful not at all. 

Not an exact formula, but a good indicator 

[World Devourer]

On 10/17/2021 at 2:18 AM, 1950's war comics said:

agree ! modern covers are great but the stories are unreadable .. and i have tried but can't make it halfway through a modern story without losing interest

BINGO! 

I would wager that this is the feeling for most mature age collectors/investors who read comics in past decades. I can safely say that the halcyon days of Alpha Flight (Byrne), Daredevil (MIller), Thor (Simonson) and X-Men (Claremont/Byrne/Austin) are long gone and will never come again. Starlin lasted longer than most (a la Thanos).

I tried to read a completely unnecessary retelling of the Avengers' origin and it was flat out boring. A few attempts at reading Spider-Man showed me that the art of writing Peter Parker appears to have been lost. 

These days I only collect comics as investment items for eventual resale. Ours is now a cover sport, largely dictated by the grade. 

[World Devourer]

On 10/21/2021 at 6:12 AM, Hired! said:

I feel sorry for you guys. You've missed out on incredible stories by Alan Moore, Kurt Busiek, Warren Ellis, Brian K Vaughan,  Garth Ennis, Geoff Johns, Mark Waid, Grant Morrison, Tom Taylor, Brian Bendis, Neil Gaiman, Jonathan Hickman, Ed Brubaker, Jeff Lemire, Mark Millar, Matt Fraction, Peter David, Walt Simonson, etc.

There are some, certainly. I enjoyed Planetary, League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Simonson's more Nordic Thor.

These  however, are exceptions rather than the rule.

[paqart]

On 10/21/2021 at 6:26 AM, World Devourer said:

There are some, certainly. I enjoyed Planetary, League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Simonson's more Nordic Thor.

These  however, are exceptions rather than the rule.

The most recent comic that I enjoyed was John Byrne's Next Men. I also liked his Danger Unlimited, from the same time period. I like his stories quite a bit, unlike Kirby, who is like Lennon without McCartney when he does his own stories.

[Get Marwood & I]

On 10/23/2021 at 8:55 PM, paqart said:

I like his stories quite a bit, unlike Kirby, who is like Lennon without McCartney when he does his own stories.

Imagine that 

[paqart]

On 10/23/2021 at 3:57 PM, Get Marwood & I said:

Imagine that. 

I finally figured out that your screen name is a reference to the movie "Withnail and I", as is your location. I've been wondering about that for over a year.

[Get Marwood & I]

On 10/23/2021 at 9:45 PM, paqart said:

I finally figured out that your screen name is a reference to the movie "Withnail and I", as is your location. I've been wondering about that for over a year.

That's at least a year longer than everyone else Paq. And they knocked it down, the rotters. 

[paqart]

On 10/23/2021 at 4:48 PM, Get Marwood & I said:

That's at least a year longer than everyone else Paq. And they knocked it down, the rotters. 

You'd think that with a PhD from King's College, London, I would have been quicker with that.

[southern cross]

Scarcity only matters if there is demand.

I have an Australian book printed in 1950. The printing run was not very high compared to American print runs due to the population differences of the two countries for possible consumers to buy.

I've owned this book for 15 years and have never seen another copy.

And I'd bet good money it's a sole surviving copy.

Still doesn't make it valuable. Maybe someone collecting Venus maybe interested but I'd say that's a small market.

In one way not being valuable means I'll still keep it in my collection.

[paqart]

On 10/23/2021 at 8:10 PM, southern cross said:

Scarcity only matters if there is demand.

I have an Australian book printed in 1950. The printing run was not very high compared to American print runs due to the population differences of the two countries for possible consumers to buy.

I've owned this book for 15 years and have never seen another copy.

And I'd bet good money it's a sole surviving copy.

Still doesn't make it valuable. Maybe someone collecting Venus maybe interested but I'd say that's a small market.

In one way not being valuable means I'll still keep it in my collection.

 

If scarcity was all that mattered, publishers would be making comics with a print run of 10 or less. They have to be popular to be collectible. For that reason, I think scarcity is more important than absolute rarity. My one of three copies known to exist Feature Book NN ( Tracy) was pretty rare, as was the giveaway "Korea My Home". Those remain the two rarest comics I've ever owned. I would have happily traded them for any early first issue Marvel, maybe all the way down to tenth issue or later in some cases.

One reason the rarity of paintings by Johannes Vermeer are so expensive is their quality. Because less than 40 are known to exist, they cost even more. Picasso paintings are not rare but their value exceeds Vermeer, who is rare. Prolific works of art (comics), or artists (Picasso) have high value attached because they are well-known. 

The happy medium between popularity and rarity is when something happens to a comic that would normally be available in large quantities, like the paper drives during WWII, or spinner rack damage, or a low print run because an artist or character isn't popular yet, then later become popular. When Werewolf by Night 32 was published, the print run was based on the sales of Werewolf by Night, not the future popularity of Moon Knight.

Price variants are interesting to me for a reason that probably shouldn't matter: the thrill of the hunt. To me, these are like so many Pokemon in the forest. When I get them, it is less about the comic than how much fun it is to look for them. When it is an interesting comic on its own, that is a bonus. For instance, I recently picked up a 9.4 CGC graded copy of the newsstand/Canadian edition of Swamp thing 25. I like the cover, the story, the character, and that it has a prototype of John Constantine. I would have wanted it whether or not it was Canadian. I prefer it is newsstand because I like the idea that those comics survived maltreatment in the racks.

Getting back to ASM V2 #13, that particular group of price variants is so hard to find that I want them all even though I don't like Cable as a character or comic, nor the art team on the book at the time. I like the Thors anyway, though none are keys. I like Byrne also (even the cover of 13), so the ASMs I like regardless. Again, no keys. The FFs, Hulks, X-Men, and Cables I have zero interest in as comics but I want them because it is fun to look for them. Of the group, FF, Hulk, and X-Men are collectible because of the characters, so I don't think it is completely out of line to be looking for these. The only "key" of the group, though a weak one, is Hulk #8 because of the Hulk vs. Wolverine cover.
 

Edited October 24, 2021 by paqart