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Is the Market Slowing Down?
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41 posts in this topic

I put up some new books this week on Ebay.  Nothing spectacular. 

But...it seems that views are pretty low.

Is the market taking a downturn?  

Or is it that now only the super-hot books are getting maximum views and maximum dollar?

What y'all think?  What's been your experience as of late?

Thanks. 

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Personal spending is actually pretty flat during the last few months usually it seems. That chart can actually go back 120 readings. (I just found it after a cursory search for Consumer Spending.) I'm not sure how accurate it actually is.

United States Personal Spending 1959 - 2021 (fxempire.com)

image.png

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Prices are down but they should be. The market was artificially inflated. New money came in, they spent that money, so now they have all their money stuck in comics that stopped rising. The music stopped and they are left without a chair. They took loses on just about everything they bought so even they aren't going to keep throwing money into comics. 

Demand is still there. I find sales just fine. I look at a lot of books each day and will buy anything if it's undervalue enough. I haven't bought anything this month. Usually get at least 5 things a week. My sales are weak. One account I only have maybe 20 books listed, all keys but not hot keys. I sold 3 this month for top dollar. Other account I have 100 drek listed. Lowest price on the internet that I can find and I made my first sale this weekend in 2 weeks. No surprise. I am trying to sell books that nobody wants. Just random issues with awful covers and many not elite grade. They sit waiting for that one person. If you want to see steady sales you better have hot books or at least popular books that are high grade and they need to be priced right. If you are selling random issues that aren't popular and not elite grade then you need to have 500 or 1000 of them listed if you want steady sales. 

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I'm not so sure if prices are down because people are pulling back or because the market is sort of getting flooded with all the usually online autions, ebay, but online facebook/;instagram/youtube sales are going on all the time..  Then there is the whole whatnot app with multiple auctions always running.  While there has been a big influx of investor collectors I am not sure this is sustainable.  I would say you can only have so many ASM 300s, but then a guy on facebook plops out another 50 graded and says he has never, ever read a comic. 

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On 11/7/2021 at 4:18 PM, Joe Peck said:

Are there any forum posters that have a large online sales presence or even a LCS?  It'd be interesting to ask them what they are seeing.

My sales have dropped off a cliff over the last 2 weeks.  Big ticket keys seem to be still be doing ok but most everything else is ice cold.  It should pick up after the new year since this happens pretty much every year at about this time.  The question will be has all the buying over the last year satisfied buyers and things will continue to be slow for awhile.  Time will tell but for now it's key books and graded books doing well.

Edited by 1Cool
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On 11/7/2021 at 9:28 PM, blazingbob said:

The highball to lowball offer indictor has recently started to go negative when more lowball offers are coming in versus high.  

The dealer post dated check indictor is currently flashing early 2022

Cash/trade signals are currently flashing since prices have gone so high more creative deals are taking place.

Media whores have gone the way of QVC network mentality whereby "fake TV shows" are believed by many to be real even though they are scripted.  

The VOB (Very overpriced books) is currently at a 10 year high

The FEID (Forever in Debt) Dealer pool has been flat to stable lately.  

Unlike the metals market there seems to be those that think copper is more valuable then Gold or Silver.  

The above is considered a parody on the state of the current market so unless you see me on MSNBC or CNN please don't take this seriously.

 

 

lol

It's been awhile since your last "Rants & Raves".  

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On 11/7/2021 at 1:40 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Prices are down but they should be. The market was artificially inflated. New money came in, they spent that money, so now they have all their money stuck in comics that stopped rising. The music stopped and they are left without a chair. They took loses on just about everything they bought so even they aren't going to keep throwing money into comics. 

Demand is still there. I find sales just fine. I look at a lot of books each day and will buy anything if it's undervalue enough. I haven't bought anything this month. Usually get at least 5 things a week. My sales are weak. One account I only have maybe 20 books listed, all keys but not hot keys. I sold 3 this month for top dollar. Other account I have 100 drek listed. Lowest price on the internet that I can find and I made my first sale this weekend in 2 weeks. No surprise. I am trying to sell books that nobody wants. Just random issues with awful covers and many not elite grade. They sit waiting for that one person. If you want to see steady sales you better have hot books or at least popular books that are high grade and they need to be priced right. If you are selling random issues that aren't popular and not elite grade then you need to have 500 or 1000 of them listed if you want steady sales. 

+1 This is a very good analysis from one of a few angles. 

Following Heritage Comic Auctions, studying the trends there, is in my estimation the single best barometer for market trend indication, and what we can see by studying that, is that overall, the market is still a runaway train, still gathering momentum. Also, by closely studying Comic Connect and ComicLink, similar trends should be noted. 

Now trying to compare ebay's selection, on a whole to those three powerhouses, is like trying to compare your local P.A.L baseball team to a major league team. While you may see a P.A.L. baseball player occasionally pull off a brilliant play, on a whole the entire level of play differs. 

You're not going to see "Promise Collections" and books of that highest magnitude on ebay with the regularity or selection as you do in the auctions of the biggest 3. 

There also appears to be a new thing in the past 2 years. The "every book with a first appearance, a cameo, or an origin" is a key issue. If you're into owning all of the keys, and a new one pops up, well, there goes some money you might be saving for a big key towards all those newly contrived ones. 

But to address question directly, Yes. IMO, the market is still a runaway train. Still speeding along the track. And as long as money keeps deflating in value against products inflating in value, investors will continue to feed coal into that train's engine.  

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So many non-key "Keys" because of the random TV show/movie announcement or spec.  What book really started that?  Was it Hulk 271?  The "Rocket Racoon" effect?  Perennial Dollar Book to 3-4 figures overnight? 

The term "semi-key" is silly as well.  

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