Is the Market Slowing Down? 6 6

[piper]

The books I'm interested in such as SA keys, GA Classic Covers, early SA Marvel have not dropped at all.  Yes, prices have corrected on IH181 and XM1, but I already own those.

Thanks,

John

[adampasz]

On 11/7/2021 at 6:28 PM, blazingbob said:

The highball to lowball offer indictor has recently started to go negative when more lowball offers are coming in versus high.  

The dealer post dated check indictor is currently flashing early 2022

Cash/trade signals are currently flashing since prices have gone so high more creative deals are taking place.

Media whores have gone the way of QVC network mentality whereby "fake TV shows" are believed by many to be real even though they are scripted.  

The VOB (Very overpriced books) is currently at a 10 year high

The FEID (Forever in Debt) Dealer pool has been flat to stable lately.  

Unlike the metals market there seems to be those that think copper is more valuable then Gold or Silver.  

The above is considered a parody on the state of the current market so unless you see me on MSNBC or CNN please don't take this seriously.

 

 

[1Cool]

On 11/8/2021 at 10:52 AM, chrisco37 said:

So many non-key "Keys" because of the random TV show/movie announcement or spec.  What book really started that?  Was it Hulk 271?  The "Rocket Racoon" effect?  Perennial Dollar Book to 3-4 figures overnight? 

The term "semi-key" is silly as well.  

The book I think of is X-Factor 6 when it went from a $5 book to $50 book when the X-Men movie was announced but Hulk 271 is a great one since no one was looking for it before GOTG 1 got announced.

[Hulksdaddy1]

On 11/7/2021 at 9:07 PM, alexgross.com said:

are there 9 million threads about this? 

[blazingbob]

The comic dealer landscape changed when the Dealer meal plan went from McDonald's happy meal to Five guys.  Dunkin donuts were replaced by bagels and cream cheese for morning setup meals at some shows.  The rising tide of the market can always be determined by the food landscape and size of the dealers.  

For the high end of the market always seek out the wine and cheese booths,  try avoiding the cheese whiz and kool aid crowd.

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by blazingbob

[Vixom]

On 11/8/2021 at 10:30 AM, James J Johnson said:

+1 This is a very good analysis from one of a few angles. 

Following Heritage Comic Auctions, studying the trends there, is in my estimation the single best barometer for market trend indication, and what we can see by studying that, is that overall, the market is still a runaway train, still gathering momentum. Also, by closely studying Comic Connect and ComicLink, similar trends should be noted. 

Now trying to compare ebay's selection, on a whole to those three powerhouses, is like trying to compare your local P.A.L baseball team to a major league team. While you may see a P.A.L. baseball player occasionally pull off a brilliant play, on a whole the entire level of play differs. 

You're not going to see "Promise Collections" and books of that highest magnitude on ebay with the regularity or selection as you do in the auctions of the biggest 3. 

There also appears to be a new thing in the past 2 years. The "every book with a first appearance, a cameo, or an origin" is a key issue. If you're into owning all of the keys, and a new one pops up, well, there goes some money you might be saving for a big key towards all those newly contrived ones. 

But to address question directly, Yes. IMO, the market is still a runaway train. Still speeding along the track. And as long as money keeps deflating in value against products inflating in value, investors will continue to feed coal into that train's engine.  

We will find out this spring. I never noticed nov dec being slow but I have some things I haven't gotten around to selling so going to put them up on ebay and see what happens. I know week before xmas has been dead in past. Week after good for small stuff, figure people got gift cards or cash. Some of the best deals I have ever gotten have been in Jan Feb. Then income tax money comes, cons get rolling and good until a summer slow down with vacation and kids home. Ebay sells more bigger books than you think. They might not be sold on there but they are sold on there if you catch my drift. CL sales continue to fall every auction. I probably wouldn't have noticed if not for the boardie chart. 

Spring 2021 highs weren't sustainable. Keys aren't low enough for me to buy. I am just going to sit back and watch. I want to see if there is a Dec rush to unload things by ebay sellers who aren't returning in 2022.

[zosocane]

Friday is Disney+ Day, where several announcements are expected.  While rumors that the market has already acted on will be confirmed, there should be some announcements on new content/characters in 2022 and into 2023.

[littledoom]

Sales have been slow 

[Beige]

Not just prices, volume as well.

And surprisingly, not a lot of 'new stock' to be picked up - usually a few 'general public type' ( not hard-core collectors or dealers)  people sell off books to pay for Xmas.

 

Very very quiet

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 11/8/2021 at 11:59 AM, blazingbob said:

kool aid crowd.

[fett]

On 11/7/2021 at 8:07 PM, alexgross.com said:

are there 9 million threads about this? 

your post count isn't that high so I'm guessing you haven't asked that question in all of those threads?  

[blazingbob]

On 11/9/2021 at 1:16 AM, fett said:

your post count isn't that high so I'm guessing you haven't asked that question in all of those threads?  

Quality over quantity.  You've been banned to the KFC bucket of chicken collector crowd forever wondering what the secret recipe is to getting better deals from dealers.

[chrisco37]

On 11/9/2021 at 6:57 AM, blazingbob said:

forever wondering what the secret recipe is to getting better deals from dealers.

[Brock]

On 11/7/2021 at 7:02 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

In my experience it’s always slower in November and December.

I call this “buying season”… low prices now on books that will sell higher when tax rebate checks come in the spring.

[littledoom]

On 11/9/2021 at 5:42 AM, Brock said:

I call this “buying season”… low prices now on books that will sell higher when tax rebate checks come in the spring.

So then sales shouldn’t be slow for this exact reason? It’s like that infinite power meme of the power strip’s cord plugged into the socket 

[1Cool]

On 11/9/2021 at 12:17 PM, littledoom said:

So then sales shouldn’t be slow for this exact reason? It’s like that infinite power meme of the power strip’s cord plugged into the socket 

I bet if you put all your books up in $0.99 auctions they would all sell but probably not for what you were hoping.  Low ball offers are way up over the last couple weeks so the buyers are out there but they are a lot less likely to pay decent money compared to a few months ago (from what I'm seeing).  

[sckao]

Consumer spending flatlines at the end of the year, but not for all sectors. Vehicle sales peak in December generally as dealers try to blow out inventory before next year's model come in (with another spike in Spring/Summer for New Car Sales.) This also coincides when people get their Tax Returns... with many filing early. While many companies also have end-of-year bonuses, many companies also operate on a fiscal year-end basis which may end the year during other months. (Common fiscal year-end dates are March 31, June 30, September 30, or December 31.) This would translate to bonuses or raises creating spikes during those periods.

Given the holidays and number of vacation days for school/college/New Years, etc., I bet a lot of discretionary dollars are allocated for non-comic items during these months just paying for airfare/trips/family visits/winter break or mundane life needs. Heating costs also tends to balloon for some households.

[badback83]

On 11/9/2021 at 8:42 AM, Brock said:

I call this “buying season”… low prices now on books that will sell higher when tax rebate checks come in the spring.

I agree.  I tell my friends that if they want to buy “higher dollar” books, now is the time.  No one listens.  But then in 6 months they’ll decide they really want it and be screwed because so does everyone else.  I don’t have kids, not a big family, so holiday spending doesn’t really affect me.  I’m ready to buy!

[PKJ]

On 11/9/2021 at 4:42 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

I agree.  I tell my friends that if they want to buy “higher dollar” books, now is the time.  No one listens.  But then in 6 months they’ll decide they really want it and be screwed because so does everyone else.  I don’t have kids, not a big family, so holiday spending doesn’t really affect me.  I’m ready to buy!

Exactly, I have bought 3 of my bigger books in December each year. Also helps some of my incentive package pays out the first week of December.

[fett]

On 11/9/2021 at 5:57 AM, blazingbob said:

Quality over quantity.  You've been banned to the KFC bucket of chicken collector crowd forever wondering what the secret recipe is to getting better deals from dealers.

not looking for a deal-I have a copy of everything and do not speculate.