Oh Man I Sure Hope the Comics Market Never Crashes as Bad as the Stamps Market 13 13

[piper]

On 3/1/2022 at 11:44 AM, 500Club said:

Some good news from the front lines.  Four of us boardies set up at shows together in Western Canada, and I can say that we are seeing a healthy influx of 20-40 something buyers.  In addition, I routinely see younger people in the Graphic Novels section in the bookstores, and our affiliate LCS sells frequently to families with kids.

 (My kids don't read monthly floppies but love to read collected editions)

[500Club]

On 3/1/2022 at 11:58 AM, Kripsys99 said:

I think there are fewer and fewer people collecting,

Over the last 30 years, yes.  Over the last couple of years, no.  LCSs are adding file customers in our area, and lapsed collectors are coming back into the hobby.  In addition, increased overseas buying is drawing books out of the market.

[WolverineX]

On 3/1/2022 at 8:02 AM, Shrevvy said:

Yes, one of the most famous is the inverted Jenny.

This is the only stamp i know.  How much is it now? I'll buy it if it's under 100 dollars

[RonS2112]

On 3/1/2022 at 10:26 AM, Stefan_W said:

I remember when the comic market crashed in the 90s, and it was pretty ugly. This is a totally different market though, and I doubt it will happen again on the same scale. 

Having said that, the bigger the book the safer it is when prices dip again. The first ones hit are newer and more common books. 

Yep......I tried selling my collection of Marvel SA books in early 1997 and literally could get no buyers.  Everyone thought that a possible impending Marvel bankruptcy would make the books worthless.  That was a bit silly and extreme in retrospect, but I have to shake my head every time a younger collector says, "it can't happen again."  I think the people paying hundreds for the latest modern variant may have a day of reckoning coming.

[Krydel4]

I think certain segments of the comic market will have a down correction or crash. PCH and GA (GA that does not have its IP owned by a multinational conglomerate that keeps it in the public eye) for one. Outside of the big books (AC1, DC27, CA1 AS8 etc.) that will always be valuable because of their IP, no one other than collectors of a certain older age group care about Fox Comics, Centaurs, EC etc. And they just sell them amongst themselves. Its just a game of musical chairs and eventually it will stop and the prices will crash on those books cause there will be no one left to buy. The other end of the market in moderns is suspect as well because the print runs were so high. ASM 300 jumps to mind.  There are probably close to 500 right now on Ebay. It's tulips all over again in the modern market. Manufactured hype. I have 3 in my collection Raw that I bought from my LCS when it came out. I have 2 friends who also bought 3. 2 of mine are 9.8s cause I read one and put the other 2 away. I do think there will be a correction of the silver, bronze, and copper. But not as extreme as the 2 bookends.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Krydel4
Clarity

[aokartman]

I don't know about the future of comics, but I can attest to stamps since I just picked up a free collection from a neighborhood forum.  I literally held out my arms and said "Load me up" as this guy handed over his father's, and his father's father's collection after despairing "I wish he had collected coins".  David

[october]

On 3/1/2022 at 1:49 PM, Krydel4 said:

I think certain segments of the comic market will have a down correction or crash. PCH and GA (GA that does not have its IP owned by a multinational conglomerate that keeps it in the public eye) for one. Outside of the big books (AC1, DC27, CA1 AS8 etc.) that will always be valuable because of their IP, no one other than collectors of a certain older age group care about Fox Comics, Centaurs, EC etc. And they just sell them amongst themselves. Its just a game of musical chairs and eventually it will stop and the prices will crash on those books cause there will be no one left to buy. 

Not true at all. 

There are plenty of younger collectors (under 40) who are interested in esoteric golden age. The reason the collecting demographic of this stuff skews to 30+ is that it A) takes some time in the hobby to appreciate the rarity and appeal of something like Centaurs and B) younger collectors can't afford them. If it was just an ever-dwindling group of dusty old guys interested in this stuff, prices wouldn't be rising....except they ARE rising. They are going through the roof in fact. Prices on quality Fox/Centaur/Harvey/MLJ/Ace/etc issues have at least doubled over the past year and have never, ever, been higher. 

No offense to some of the posters in this thread, but these are the same tired demographic cliff, end of the world arguments the board has had for the past 20 years. Yes, at some point the perma-bears will be right, and the hobby will wither. But you won't be able to predict it with any kind of accuracy and you will miss out a lot of price increases along the way...all while depriving yourselves of an awesome hobby, worrying about some distant, uncertain future crash. Just buy what you like, buy what you can afford, and you won't have to worry about the rest.   

Edited March 8, 2022 by october

[EastEnd1]

I've been hearing doomsday scenarios about the comic book market for just about the entire 45 years I've been collecting and I keep saying the same thing (as I will here)... the comic book market will collapse only when the superhero itself collapses.  Absent that, there will ALWAYS be superhero fans that will gravitate to the original source material.

[Beige]

 from Australia - the comic shops are full of teenagers buying trades. I'm sure they will gravitate to single issues eventually.

I bought ASM #1 + #14 (and more) from a 20 yr old. Selling to pay off education debt - will collect again when working at chosen career.

One of the biggest Gumtree sellers is a 14yr old kid!

Very healthy here - but we are a few years behind in buying 'bigger' keys - mainly because they weren't sold here at the time of issue.

I'd say with the MCU rolling along - things are just fine for a few decades yet - minimum.

 

Oh yeah the 2nd biggest sports arena in Melbourne is currently having a huge Thors Hammer stuck on the side to go with its new Spider-Man scoreboards. A proposed 'sky-ride' from the rooftops of the CBD to the stadium has been raised in talks again - The Falcon ride.

The stadium?

MARVEL stadium, on a 20 yr naming lease.

[William-James88]

On 3/1/2022 at 3:01 PM, aokartman said:

I don't know about the future of comics, but I can attest to stamps since I just picked up a free collection from a neighborhood forum.  I literally held out my arms and said "Load me up" as this guy handed over his father's, and his father's father's collection after despairing "I wish he had collected coins".  David

wow, this is crazy! (but also yeah, goes with the sad truth that these once prized stamps are now worthless).

[Rob]

On 3/1/2022 at 1:31 PM, EastEnd1 said:

I've been hearing doomsday scenarios about the comic book market for just about the entire 45 years I've been collecting and I keep saying the same thing (as I will here)... the comic book market will collapse only when the superhero itself collapses.  Absent that, there will ALWAYS be superhero fans that will gravitate to the original source material.

I think there's a difference between doomsday predictions that the hobby will collapse entirely, and the likely scenario that the super-inflation over the last 18 months will correct.  A comic that increased in value from $500 in 2018 to $700 in 2020 might continue to rise in value to $1000 by 2023.  But I seriously doubt it will maintain its meteoric rise to $5000 that it saw the past year.

[kav]

The OP's stamps might not be worth much but NFTs of them could be worth a ton!

[William-James88]

On 3/1/2022 at 4:07 PM, Rob said:

I think there's a difference between doomsday predictions that the hobby will collapse entirely, and the likely scenario that the super-inflation over the last 18 months will correct.  A comic that increased in value from $500 in 2018 to $700 in 2020 might continue to rise in value to $1000 by 2023.  But I seriously doubt it will maintain its meteoric rise to $5000 that it saw the past year.

We've already seen that on a case by case basis. ASM 361 is a great example of a crash that happened recently. @kav do you remember the high point 4 figure sales results before 9.8s went back to the $500 mark? I feel we talked about that a month or two ago.

Also, I just want to say that I did not start this topic to be all doom and gloom, it was more informational. It really hit me that a hobby I once was a part of crashed and wanted to share it with you since this was a tangible example of a crash in a once thriving hobby.

[kav]

On 3/1/2022 at 1:45 PM, William-James88 said:

We've already seen that on a case by case basis. ASM 361 is a great example of a crash that happened recently. @kav do you remember the high point 4 figure sales results before 9.8s went back to the $500 mark? I feel we talked about that a month or two ago.

Also, I just want to say that I did not start this topic to be all doom and gloom, it was more informational. It really hit me that a hobby I once was a part of crashed and wanted to share it with you since this was a tangible example of a crash in a once thriving hobby.

No it wasnt me-I dont know anything about ASM after like issue 192.  Thats when I stopped reading.

[EastEnd1]

On 3/1/2022 at 4:07 PM, Rob said:

I think there's a difference between doomsday predictions that the hobby will collapse entirely, and the likely scenario that the super-inflation over the last 18 months will correct.  A comic that increased in value from $500 in 2018 to $700 in 2020 might continue to rise in value to $1000 by 2023.  But I seriously doubt it will maintain its meteoric rise to $5000 that it saw the past year.

Yeah, I know... I've addressed that aspect too in the past... back in April I said this... I still hold to it...

"I've been in the hobby since 1972, and the only other time I've seen market appreciation anywhere close to this was when CGC first appeared on the scene around 2000.  I remember attending (or participating) in many of the early graded comic auctions at Greg Manning and later Heritage and ComicLink and there were very similar jaw-dropping reactions to the CRAZY prices being realized for high grade comics that were encapsulated in hard plastic.  Perhaps the difference then was that the increases were across the board (ie, even with "run" books) whereas today it seems to be focused on keys.  And yes, just like today, many worried that the new CGC inspired market was a bubble that would eventually implode and take down the hobby.  During that event, the rapid appreciation continued for a few years as the market slowly accepted and adopted the concept of graded comics, and as more and more of them were produced and census data became more informative.  It did eventually plateau, perhaps around 2005/6 or so, and then thereafter you started to see a pullback... not so much on the SIGNIFICANT keys, but definitely on the run books which pulled back substantially... I have many that I bought at the height of that market that STILL have not recovered! 

While the drivers of that market and this one are different, I do think we may see something similar here... that there of course will eventually be a pullback... could be in three months, six months, a year, or well beyond, impossible to predict when.  But when it happens, you're probably going to see a substantial pullback on lesser keys, and fringe keys, and more modern keys (ie, the "run" books of this sudden surge).  The significant keys though I think should hold up relatively well (just like they did then)... perhaps a small retreat or maybe their prices just get "parked" for a while at the new levels; I don't expect a substantial implosion... there are just too many comic geeks like me chomping at the bit to jump into any serious price reductions.

One other little observation I'd make... when pressing became all the rage starting in the mid-2000s, there was A LOT of concern that the market would not be able to absorb all the newly minted high grade books... and that likely did contribute to the pullback we saw after 2005/6.  But at least with regard to the ever-expanding list of keys, what we've seen since then has been quite the contrary... pressing actually seems to have FED the market, I suppose by attracting ever more participants.  This is not something I would have predicted." 

[Math Teacher]

On 3/1/2022 at 10:37 AM, theCapraAegagrus said:

Educational systems are replacing physical books with computers. If people don't think that this will affect the affinity to read physical products, then IDK what else to say.

I can verify what @theCapraAegagrushas stated. It would be hard to find a school district in my area that isn't 1:1 right now. 1:1 means one computer for each student. My former school district allows 6th - 12th graders to take their Chomebooks home at night. Grades Pre-K - 5th graders store them in a charging cart at the school each night.

[JollyComics]

On 3/1/2022 at 9:36 AM, William-James88 said:

So that means you are...wait...I'll get it...

Also, my post shows that even mint stamps from 1893, which are known and coveted by the community, can be just about worthless as well.

That's a part people here don't seem to get. Liking the characters does not automatically mean an interest in collecting comics. Lots of people love TinTin and yet you can still get the first edition of his magazine releases for $40 or less. Also, not all comics are equal. @seanfingh brought up a really good point of the last generation but looked at comics as a whole. There may be some comics that are in their last generation and we don't know it. Will the next generation pick up the mantle on pre code horror? Those prices are ridiculously inflated right now, do we have enough people interested to keep those numbers afloat in 30 years time? Same question for Fiction House books. Someone mentioned comics being IP and full of known characters, and those types of collections do not fit that bill.

Correct. I will be 58 this Monday.  Time has flied by.  To be honest with you, the stamps are never highly demanded through my time but fews.  My uncle took me to Stamp Convention once. It was so dull, nothing was speculating and I didn't see anyone at my young age but to anyone who were over 35 years old with magnifying glasses or huge magnifying lens. I will never able to get rid of them but those were my non-treasure gift. My uncle is now 79 years old and was at Antique Roadshow 7 years ago. He disagreed with first dealer then met with second dealer.  Both dealers told him those stamps are not valuable anymore as it was usually valuable in early 1980's. He was very upset about it because it was his passion that is now "gone".

I remembered International spoon, Face mugs, Sovereign dishes and Thimble collection were anywhere in every town across USA while my maternal grandfather kept us on the trailer trips to West states every summer. Yes, I had wonderful time and good memories. Speaking of the collections, those things are rapidly disappeared after entering 1990's. They are not selling anymore. I have attended many estates. There were plenty of them but not sold out. Those were still sitting on the tables until the end of the estate sales. There are plenty of them on eBay and Etsy. Not many of them sold.

Comic book collection is still strong ever since Overstreet Price Guide was introduced. I chose the comic books over stamps. I am happy that I chose that path ever since. My uncle said those comic books for kids and the stamps for adults. I think he just shallowed his words.

[JollyComics]

On 3/1/2022 at 3:45 PM, William-James88 said:

We've already seen that on a case by case basis. ASM 361 is a great example of a crash that happened recently. @kav do you remember the high point 4 figure sales results before 9.8s went back to the $500 mark? I feel we talked about that a month or two ago.

Also, I just want to say that I did not start this topic to be all doom and gloom, it was more informational. It really hit me that a hobby I once was a part of crashed and wanted to share it with you since this was a tangible example of a crash in a once thriving hobby.

Remember ASM 300 CGC 9.8 used to be $1000 mark then went down to about $500 then bounced back to $1000. It's still rising ever since.  I believe ASM 361 will be bounced again.

[Poekaymon]

On 3/1/2022 at 2:21 PM, kenaran said:

For the near term the market seems healthy.  My concerns are for the longer term.  I got into superhero comics when I was 10-11 in the late 1980's, transitioning from Disney and more traditional 'funny books' my parents used to grab for me at checkstands.  I started reading Superman right at the start of what's now called 'the triangle era' and I was hooked!  I doubt that is a very unique story on these boards. 

Comics today are a VERY different beast.  Here's a UPC from a recent issue of Action Comics, with an Ages 13+ flag, not to mention the price.  Also on certain issues it can be quite the feat just to acquire all the covers (not to mention nothing special is happening within those covers).  As many have mentioned the interest with kids is very much there, but will the books today grab their interest (if their parents don't see the age flags first).

We're about the same age--and I have had the same thoughts.  I do not think I'd be a comic reader today.  Internet, cell phones, and modern computer games are just so omnipresent.  In a way I'm even surprised we still have novels as well.  But I've been to Midtown Comics a few times pre-pandemic, and it was always pretty busy with young people reading stuff off the shelves and people lined up at the register.  So who knows.  The IP is here to stay, so maybe that's enough. 

So I feel like Spider-Man, X-Men, Hulk, etc, keys will probably be okay for a good while because they are continuously refreshed in mixed media.  What I am more concerned with is the stuff that's not attached to modern IP.  So basically most of the golden stuff.  Ironically, golds are highly prized on this forum, but that stuff is unhinged from nostalgia at this point, and I believe the golden collectors are even older.  So I am not too sure who is picking up that mantle in, say, 20 years.   It's not going to be me.  I'm also pretty sure it's not the teenagers I see at Midtown Comics reading Miles Morales off the shelves.  So I dunno.  And not to just bash on the oldies, but I also think the endless modern variants will be in trouble.  I mean they just keep pumping that stuff out.  So in any given year you may have some expensive variant that is the coolest thing you've ever seen of that character, so it drives that book. But I mean they are just going to keep making new cool variants, year after year, for another 20-50 years or whatever.  I feel like there will be just too damn many of them. Will they all support high prices just on the basis of coolness?  Hard to fathom. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Poekaymon

[EastEnd1]

On 3/1/2022 at 6:12 PM, Dberg Dave said:

No? Seemed pretty obvious. CGC was trying to create their own in-house pressing service as a CPR revenue stream from the Day One.

 

That was actually pretty controversial at the time (and still is).  But the prevailing feeling then was that the creation of more high grade books would harm values by making such books less scarce.