Oh Man I Sure Hope the Comics Market Never Crashes as Bad as the Stamps Market 13 13

[darkstar]

On 3/2/2022 at 5:29 PM, William-James88 said:

I'm very curious, but how do you know this? I can show you posts of fellow board members admitting to spending inflated prices on comics (I should know, I am one of them). Where is your proof that the majority of this inflation in the market is coming from young people who made their money online?

You think collectibles across the board exploded in price during the pandemic because old people who had been spending money within their respective hobbies for decades decided everything was now worth 2-10 times the previous price? This is new money entering those hobbies from young people buying what they know from people who have been around forever, who in turn sold new stuff in order to buy old stuff.  

[Poekaymon]

On 3/2/2022 at 3:14 PM, Rob said:

I just remember before I left the hobby about 10 years ago, having my eye on an X-Men #1 in 2.0 for around $1000.  Couldn't get myself to pull the trigger on it, as $1000 for a 2.0 sounded high.  Now you can't touch it for less than $9000.  

Question is, in another 10 years will you be kicking yourself for not getting it now at $9000?

[Ride the Tiger]

I think its a bunch of younger collectors sending all the prices whacko too. I guess there is no real way to prove it. Maybe look at the average age of people you see at a con?????

 

On another note...... if I have 2 of the same stamps. One has been licked and the other has not. How much more is that unlicked stamp gonna be worth?

[Rob]

On 3/2/2022 at 5:21 PM, Poekaymon said:

Question is, in another 10 years will you be kicking yourself for not getting it now at $9000?

Nah, it won't stay at $9000.

[Robot Man]

My wife used to collect antique Teddy Bears. The very early turn of the century to 1930's era German Steiff ones. She often paid a LOT for them. She was known as the go to person around here if you had rare ones. Her collection numbered in the 30-40  area. Nothing but the rarest and best condition ones. Some were bought on trips to Europe. 

She eventually realized that the people who were hard core collectors were older women who were dying off and very few younger collectors coming into the market so she sold them off at the top of the market.

Her best one was a black one made by Steiff in 1912 for children who were survivors of the Titanic. She bought hers with a photo of the young owner holding it.

Now, these have zero interest to me but I shared her passion of collecting. Any well curated collection of most anything is wonderful to behold. 

Personally, I know I couldn't have sold that black Titanic bear for mere money...

[William-James88]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:48 PM, Ride the Tiger said:

I think its a bunch of younger collectors sending all the prices whacko too. I guess there is no real way to prove it. Maybe look at the average age of people you see at a con?????

 

On another note...... if I have 2 of the same stamps. One has been licked and the other has not. How much more is that unlicked stamp gonna be worth?

Depends, was it licked by a supermodel?

[William-James88]

On 3/2/2022 at 6:51 PM, darkstar said:

You think collectibles across the board exploded in price during the pandemic because old people who had been spending money within their respective hobbies for decades decided everything was now worth 2-10 times the previous price? 

FYI, there is an entire thread on this very board dedicated to "old" fans spending more money than ever before on particular comics

I keep hearing people say the crazy prices being fetched for the Promise Collection are by Crypto Bros but then we have our own fellow boardies posting their wins and spending more than they have ever imagined spending on a particular book. So I am extrapolating that. We do indeed have "old" fans spending more money than ever before.

And I am one of them. Ninja Turtles 1 has sky rocketed in price but I still bought one just last month for 10X what it would have cost me years ago.

Edited March 3, 2022 by William-James88

[WolverineX]

On 3/2/2022 at 8:57 PM, Robot Man said:

My wife used to collect antique Teddy Bears. The very early turn of the century to 1930's era German Steiff ones. She often paid a LOT for them. She was known as the go to person around here if you had rare ones. Her collection numbered in the 30-40  area. Nothing but the rarest and best condition ones. Some were bought on trips to Europe. 

She eventually realized that the people who were hard core collectors were older women who were dying off and very few younger collectors coming into the market so she sold them off at the top of the market.

Her best one was a black one made by Steiff in 1912 for children who were survivors of the Titanic. She bought hers with a photo of the young owner holding it.

Now, these have zero interest to me but I shared her passion of collecting. Any well curated collection of most anything is wonderful to behold. 

Personally, I know I couldn't have sold that black Titanic bear for mere money...

How much is that titanic bear now?

[VintageComics]

On 3/2/2022 at 1:33 AM, William-James88 said:

I checked on e-bay, wrote "graded stamp" and found this right away https://www.ebay.ca/itm/193734560493?hash=item2d1b7acaed:g:ASAAAOSwS2xfoGM0

There are different companies out there. Some authenticate and grade, but they place a picture for you to see what they graded. Like that, if you spot a difference, then you know that the grade does not stand. You can do that with a stamp since you can see all of it in the unsealed holder. It's been the accepted norm by the stamp community. But really, stamps are more simple than comics which need that extra bit of security when purchasing. With a stamp, you can even grade with a software (like this listing https://www.ebay.ca/itm/334115015280?hash=item4dcace8a70:g:IeYAAOSwjp9ddAg9) and then verify the grade on your end. And I will repeat, I do not see how slabbing a comic turns it into more of an asset than when it was unslabbed. All it does is ease a transaction. A comic you are keeping in your collection, even as an investment, remains an asset (either valuable or not) regardless of it being slabbed. Slabbing has nothing to do with it, it's just the interest in the market. People are into collecting comics now, they aren't into collecting stamps. So one market is booming while another crashed. Nothing more than that.

Weird, I didn't see that.

How it affects prices is that certified and sealed items are commoditized and the increase in faith in the product increases prices. It's happened in every slabbed product. 

And stamps really are not very different from sports cards, but sports card prices benefited from certification as well. 

The certification is what has caused the large increases in prices that we've seen. 

[darkstar]

On 3/2/2022 at 8:49 PM, William-James88 said:

FYI, there is an entire thread on this very board dedicated to "old" fans spending more money than ever before on particular comics

I keep hearing people say the crazy prices being fetched for the Promise Collection are by Crypto Bros but then we have our own fellow boardies posting their wins and spending more than they have ever imagined spending on a particular book. So I am extrapolating that. We do indeed have "old" fans spending more money than ever before.

And I am one of them. Ninja Turtles 1 has sky rocketed in price but I still bought one just last month for 10X what it would have cost me years ago.

Because they are making money off the new money entering the hobby and selling new stuff in order to buy old stuff. You simply do not see the growth in any market that you've seen across several areas of collectibles (where the supply is constrained) the past few years for any reason other than a tremendous amount of new money coming into the market. That new money isn't coming from existing buyers that have already been participating for years and/or decades. 

[William-James88]

On 3/2/2022 at 10:50 PM, VintageComics said:

And stamps really are not very different from sports cards, but sports card prices benefited from certification as well. 

The certification is what has caused the large increases in prices that we've seen. 

If stamps are not that different from cards, in terms of the actual product (flat, 2-D collectible) and both have certification options, then doesn't the fact that one market is thriving while the other isn't indicate that it can't be the certification aspect that makes a hobby soar? 

All I mean is that certification and interest in certification comes about as a result of a hot market, it doesn't create the initial heat nor can it keep that heat going if there is no interest in what is being graded. And stamps are a great example of that. I wonder if what I am saying sounds as logical to others as it does to me.

I will say this though, Stamps, along with coins and cards, had/have way more going for them as a collectible than comics did, especially when we bring in the idea of certification. You still get to see the entire product when graded, the grading is more objective since there are less aspects to grade, less parts involved. The grade given is easier to retain. Transactional costs are much lower since shipping is cheaper and there is less of a risk of damage during shipping (all that leading to less returns). Plus they take much less space, where that factor causes 0 hindrance on one's collection goals. They also have an underlying value but it's usually insignificant (unlike coins made of precious metals). There is no point being made here, just ramblings and observations. It's more telling of how great the momentum on our dear hobby is since it is thriving while it has a lot more issues with its grading process, maintenance of grade, or even assurance of grade (like buying a blue label slab to later realize it's missing a page afteral) and higher transaction cost. And it also shows that an ideal collectible that had everything going for it could still crash.

Edited March 3, 2022 by William-James88

[JJ-4]

On 3/2/2022 at 11:00 PM, William-James88 said:

If stamps are not that different from cards, in terms of the actual product (flat, 2-D collectible) and both have certification options, then doesn't the fact that one market is thriving while the other isn't indicate that it can't be the certification aspect that makes a hobby soar? 

All I mean is that certification and interest in certification comes about as a result of a hot market, it doesn't create the initial heat nor can it keep that heat going if there is no interest in what is being graded. And stamps are a great example of that. I wonder if what I am saying sounds as logical to others as it does to me.

Yes, makes sense and I agree.  I would add that just because a market is hot there is no guarantee that it will remain that way as you need to add as many interested people to the market as you lose over time and that doesn't always happen.

On 3/2/2022 at 11:00 PM, William-James88 said:

I will say this though, Stamps, along with coins and cards, had/have way more going for them as a collectible than comics did, especially when we bring in the idea of certification. You still get to see the entire product when graded, the grading is more objective since there are less aspects to grade, less parts involved. The grade given is easier to retain. Transactional costs are much lower since shipping is cheaper and there is less of a risk of damage during shipping (all that leading to less returns). Plus they take much less space, where that factor causes 0 hindrance on one's collection goals. They also have an underlying value but it's usually insignificant (unlike coins made of precious metals). There is no point being made here, just ramblings and observations. It's more telling of how great the momentum on our dear hobby is since it is thriving while it has a lot more issues with its grading process, maintenance of grade, or even assurance of grade (like buying a blue label slab to later realize it's missing a page afteral) and higher transaction cost. And it also shows that an ideal collectible that had everything going for it could still crash.

Great observations.

[Ride the Tiger]

On 3/2/2022 at 8:34 PM, William-James88 said:

Depends, was it licked by a supermodel?

If it was purchased on ebay then yes. It would have also been found in a wooden chest locked away in an attic and only discovered because of an estate  sale. Making it worth 4X the same stamp purchased at a collectibles store.

[jimbo_7071]

On 3/1/2022 at 12:18 AM, William-James88 said:

This absolutely floored me today. I read the boards and I don't think people have a sense of just how bad a hobby could completely crash. Some were there when comics crashed bad in the 90s, but I wonder, is it as bad as how stamps (a once thriving past time) crashed? I had heard that the stamps market had crashed but I didn't get a full idea until today when I bought these below:

For those unaware, these are the first commemorative stamps ever issued by the US. People were collecting stamps before, but stamps were basically just a way to pay for postage but in 1893, almost 130 years ago, they actually made stamps that had that extra collectability factor, leading to Stamp Collecting as we knew it in the 20th century. As a kid, these stamps were unobtainable. No way my dad would have spent $200 on a stamp for his kid 20 years ago. Even now, you can look up price guide values (or catalogue value as it's called) for these and see that they are still valued in the hundreds (link here: http://values.hobbizine.com/stamps/us-1893-columbians.html). You'll notice none of these above are used, even though not all are in perfect shape, they are "mint". If all were used, catalogue value would be around $280 and unused, depending on condition, would be over $1200. So these stamps above would have been "valued" at somewhere in between that.

Here's what I paid for these today:

So literally PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR of what they legit used to sell for back when I collected stamps as a teen. This is a bigger crash than I would have ever predicted and just shows the fragility of worth if there aren't enough people participating in the hobby. 

Don't know if this will ever happen to the comic book market but yeah, major crashes in "asset class" collectibles is a real thing and I just wanted to share an example.

Most collectibles, including comics, will crash that badly eventually, but with comics, that kind of crash is still decades away, in my opinion.

I don't think that people will still be collecting comics 100 years from now, but I don't see a significant crash in the next ten years (except with moderns and Bronze).

[Cat]

On 3/3/2022 at 1:43 PM, Wolverinex said:

How much is that titanic bear now?

Prices sunk. Value went completely overboard. Hit rock bottom. It's swimmin' wit' da fishes. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 3/4/2022 at 9:41 AM, Mecha_Fantastic said:

Prices sunk. Value went completely overboard. Hit rock bottom. It's swimmin' wit' da fishes. 

[october]

On 3/4/2022 at 9:41 AM, Mecha_Fantastic said:

Prices sunk. Value went completely overboard. Hit rock bottom. It's swimmin' wit' da fishes. 

That example is just the tip of the iceberg. The ship has sailed on value for a lot of bears.

[Colin The Librarian]

My hunch is that comics will retain a greater intrinsic worth as pop culture artefacts than stamps held as artistic and social artefacts.

Note that the generation churn on pop culture content is continuous. Also note the geeky 15 year olds of today will be the high salary earners in the information economy of the future. So, the teen consumers of Disney+ Marvel properties will be the future 30+ year old lawyers and doctors ready to spend on nostalgia Not only that but the next wave of IP innovation will be in play.

Then there is the global nature of pop culture IP these days. This stuff is reaching billions of people.

Of course, there will be nuance and bumps along the way, but overall I think the comparison with stamps is not that helpful.

Having said that, as someone who once hoped and planned to own every single Bronze era Marvel and DC issue published, a major price drop would be VERY helpful.

[VintageComics]

On 3/3/2022 at 1:00 AM, William-James88 said:

If stamps are not that different from cards, in terms of the actual product (flat, 2-D collectible) and both have certification options, then doesn't the fact that one market is thriving while the other isn't indicate that it can't be the certification aspect that makes a hobby soar? 

All I mean is that certification and interest in certification comes about as a result of a hot market, it doesn't create the initial heat nor can it keep that heat going if there is no interest in what is being graded. And stamps are a great example of that. I wonder if what I am saying sounds as logical to others as it does to me.

I will say this though, Stamps, along with coins and cards, had/have way more going for them as a collectible than comics did, especially when we bring in the idea of certification. You still get to see the entire product when graded, the grading is more objective since there are less aspects to grade, less parts involved. The grade given is easier to retain. Transactional costs are much lower since shipping is cheaper and there is less of a risk of damage during shipping (all that leading to less returns). Plus they take much less space, where that factor causes 0 hindrance on one's collection goals. They also have an underlying value but it's usually insignificant (unlike coins made of precious metals). There is no point being made here, just ramblings and observations. It's more telling of how great the momentum on our dear hobby is since it is thriving while it has a lot more issues with its grading process, maintenance of grade, or even assurance of grade (like buying a blue label slab to later realize it's missing a page afteral) and higher transaction cost. And it also shows that an ideal collectible that had everything going for it could still crash.

"Hot' or 'thriving' is relative.

How 'hot' were comics when CGC started? They certainly became HOTTER after CGC made it easier to commoditize them.

Now that I've had time to think about it, what probably affects collectibles the most is how closely they're linked to popular culture. 

You don't see kids these days talking about countries or history but they all talk about sports and cartoon characters. 

Most kids don't have the attention span to care about stamps and what they represent. 

That might be the single largest reason stamps have suffered. 

 

[VintageComics]

On 3/6/2022 at 6:00 PM, Colin The Librarian said:

My hunch is that comics will retain a greater intrinsic worth as pop culture artefacts than stamps held as artistic and social artefacts.

Note that the generation churn on pop culture content is continuous. Also note the geeky 15 year olds of today will be the high salary earners in the information economy of the future. So, the teen consumers of Disney+ Marvel properties will be the future 30+ year old lawyers and doctors ready to spend on nostalgia Not only that but the next wave of IP innovation will be in play.

Then there is the global nature of pop culture IP these days. This stuff is reaching billions of people.

Of course, there will be nuance and bumps along the way, but overall I think the comparison with stamps is not that helpful.

Having said that, as someone who once hoped and planned to own every single Bronze era Marvel and DC issue published, a major price drop would be VERY helpful.

Fudge me, you just stated what I did 5 minutes before me. 

Agreed.