Oh Man I Sure Hope the Comics Market Never Crashes as Bad as the Stamps Market 13 13

[MAR1979]

On 3/1/2022 at 5:43 PM, JollyComics said:

Remember ASM 300 CGC 9.8 used to be $1000 mark then went down to about $500 then bounced back to $1000. It's still rising ever since.  I believe ASM 361 will be bounced again.

It already had a dead-cat bounce. Both are very high census pop books. 361 however will always be a cheap-jack poor collectors ASM 300.

A NYCC 2021 I'd witnessed a sale of Direct Sale 361 (NON Signature) CGC 9.8 for $2,000. It was at one of those so called investor booths , you know the ones with the fancy black linen table cloths, to some rube. Yep this guy was a true rube ,as at that very moment there were several buy it now's on eBay for $1000-$1100. I know I looked.  There were what seemed like thousands of CGC 9.8 copies of that book at the con with asking prices from $900-$1500.  This was a rube's rube!

 

As for stamps Supply and Demand 101 both are required. A lot of the folks collecting them have sadly disappeared via attrition over the years vast reducing the demand. Between them passing away and low interest in those younger than retirement age seems a natural organic slowdown to what was once the largest hobby in the world. Too many straws on Camel's back...

For those that think it can't occur with comics well no way to know but it won't be happening anytime on the horizon..  Still its wise to remember Western's ruled the pop-culture Film and TV roost for decades!

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by MAR1979

[THE_BEYONDER]

 

[Bookery]

On 3/1/2022 at 9:48 AM, seanfingh said:

It is all about there being a last generation that cares.  When there is a last generation that cares, the hobby dies. When there is no one to pick up the torch, the inflated values being propped up by the last generation that cares plummet.  Stamps, Hummels some types of furniture have had the last generation that cares. Comics, coins, sports cards all may die away, but it will be because there is a last generation that cares. We are not there yet, but we may get there.

While demand for vintage comics has soared these past few years (we can't get them in fast enough), new-release comics, for us, continue their ever-downward spiral.  Sales for Jan-Feb fell yet another 15% from the same period a year ago.  Finally, after 38 years, we have just announced we are terminating our new release comics and files.  Takes up too much time for little or no return.

[DavidTheDavid]

On 3/7/2022 at 7:49 AM, Bookery said:

While demand for vintage comics has soared these past few years (we can't get them in fast enough), new-release comics, for us, continue their ever-downward spiral.  Sales for Jan-Feb fell yet another 15% from the same period a year ago.  Finally, after 38 years, we have just announced we are terminating our new release comics and files.  Takes up too much time for little or no return.

If new releases are tanking, what happens when the vintage frenzy cools, too? What's the pivot then? Not a fair question, I know, but it does make you wonder.

Speaking broadly, there's a lot of great work being done in comics today, but ya, the cover prices are such that average collectors have to be choosy. 

[october]

On 3/7/2022 at 7:53 AM, DavidTheDavid said:

If new releases are tanking, what happens when the vintage frenzy cools, too? What's the pivot then? Not a fair question, I know, but it does make you wonder.

Speaking broadly, there's a lot of great work being done in comics today, but ya, the cover prices are such that average collectors have to be choosy. 

Maybe it's just that area?

"Comic-book dollar sales [in 2021] were around $420 million, a 16% increase over the prepandemic year of 2019 and a whopping 53% increase over 2020, which had many fewer new comics releases. The comic-book total is higher than any in unadjusted dollars since the early 1990s.Feb 8, 2022"

[DavidTheDavid]

On 3/7/2022 at 9:05 AM, october said:

Maybe it's just that area?

"Comic-book dollar sales [in 2021] were around $420 million, a 16% increase over the prepandemic year of 2019 and a whopping 53% increase over 2020, which had many fewer new comics releases. The comic-book total is higher than any in unadjusted dollars since the early 1990s.Feb 8, 2022"

I wondered that, too. I read this after going down the Google rabbit hole a bit after reading this thread earlier:

https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/comic-book-market-103903#:~:text=The market is projected to,all regions amid the pandemic.

As well as this:

https://comichron.com/blog/2021/06/29/comics-and-graphic-novel-sales-hit-new-high-in-pandemic-year/

Shift to digital is accelerating. Collectability continues to drive print sales. Big growth in Asia. Graphic novels going strong. Not extraordinary growth predicted, but it's still operating in the billions. 

My own LCS says things are great in all regards.

I do think it's easy to overstate the comic fandoms in regards to broader pop culture. Netmarble's mobile game MARVEL Future Fight has more than 100,000,000 installs. Look at box office receipts and digital games sales for comics-related IPs, and you can easily see that many, many millions of people around the world know these big properties. And it's easy to surmise that very few of them, relatively speaking, will convert to print or digital comic readers. My point is that most people consuming comics-themed content do so in a way that is essentially comics-adjacent. It's commodified for the masses and consumed alongside all the other pop culture content that is commodified for the masses. It's great that folks around the world know these characters, but they know next to nothing about the rich tradition of printed material that we all so greedily consume.

What you can see now, very plainly in the work of someone like Mark Millar, is that many creators are looking for the leap from print comics to a larger audience. So many comics read like story boards for movie or television series that I can't help but assume they are looking for their option contract with each page they draw.

Okay, I am rambling. It's a rabbit hole and I need to get back to work. But yeah, the industry trends are really interesting.

Edited March 7, 2022 by DavidTheDavid

[F For Fake]

On 3/7/2022 at 10:05 AM, october said:

Maybe it's just that area?

"Comic-book dollar sales [in 2021] were around $420 million, a 16% increase over the prepandemic year of 2019 and a whopping 53% increase over 2020, which had many fewer new comics releases. The comic-book total is higher than any in unadjusted dollars since the early 1990s.Feb 8, 2022"

The dollar sales figures are encouraging, but I wonder how they'd stack up to the 90's when average cover price is factored in? Aren't most new comics something like $3.99-$4.99 a pop? In the 90's, it was more like $1-$2, depending on publisher/title. I guess the number we'd need to accurately gauge market health would be the total number of units sold, but I have no idea if that information actually exists. And even if it does, of course, that doesn't tell the tale of how many people buy multiples, how many variant covers exist for single titles, etc.

I think the overall signs are encouraging. People ARE buying and reading comics, in all sorts of formats, in appreciable numbers. That's great.

Meanwhile, re: the stamp discussion, does the youngest generation, or even the second youngest, even know what a stamp is anymore? When's the last time anyone under the age of 30 even sent a physical letter? I know that stamps have been a "collectible" for many decades, but I'd think at least SOME of that collector base got it's start with actual physical MAIL, which barely exists for most people these days. 

So, stamps are dying not just as a hobby, but as an actual THING. Christmas cards can only keep them limping along for so long. Meanwhile, comics are still being published, and while the health of the industry is debatable, the numbers aren't anything to scoff at. SOMEONE cares, and will care, for quite some time, about the form. That should keep collections kicking at least through my lifetime, I'd expect.

[William-James88]

On 3/7/2022 at 10:39 AM, F For Fake said:

The dollar sales figures are encouraging, but I wonder how they'd stack up to the 90's when average cover price is factored in? Aren't most new comics something like $3.99-$4.99 a pop? In the 90's, it was more like $1-$2, depending on publisher/title. I guess the number we'd need to accurately gauge market health would be the total number of units sold, but I have no idea if that information actually exists. And even if it does, of course, that doesn't tell the tale of how many people buy multiples, how many variant covers exist for single titles, etc.

I think the overall signs are encouraging. People ARE buying and reading comics, in all sorts of formats, in appreciable numbers. That's great.

Meanwhile, re: the stamp discussion, does the youngest generation, or even the second youngest, even know what a stamp is anymore? When's the last time anyone under the age of 30 even sent a physical letter? I know that stamps have been a "collectible" for many decades, but I'd think at least SOME of that collector base got it's start with actual physical MAIL, which barely exists for most people these days. 

So, stamps are dying not just as a hobby, but as an actual THING. Christmas cards can only keep them limping along for so long. Meanwhile, comics are still being published, and while the health of the industry is debatable, the numbers aren't anything to scoff at. SOMEONE cares, and will care, for quite some time, about the form. That should keep collections kicking at least through my lifetime, I'd expect.

That's a great point. Interest starts with the knowledge of existence and presence in our lives. A kid goes exploring in a forest and finds a cool rock and that can become the stat of a rock collection. Or a kid sees how the coins their parents have all look different and they start a collection there. And there was a time kids would collect the stamps found on envelopes their parents recieved. That process, I would argue, was more engaging than coins since there was a fun science behind it of cutting the paper, placing it in water, drying it and pressing the stamps adding a very tactile feature to the collection and making it feel even more personal. That's how I latched on. And yeah, since no one is experiencing that right now, then there is no hope for that hobby being a general and popular past time as it once was.

[ComicFill]

Unpopular opinion: I'm fine with the comic market crashing. I collect comics. I don't sell them. The comics market being super hot means I can't afford all the comics I want. If it crashes and prices go down, I can. Plus I wouldn't mind something that gets rid of all the speculators and investors that artificially pump up the prices.

Edited March 7, 2022 by ComicFill

[ComicFill]

On 2/28/2022 at 9:13 PM, 500Club said:

My impression has always been that the stamp collecting demographic was much older…?

For sure. Stamp collectors are dying off without new collectors coming in. Same thing happens with things like dolls, silver, China, etc.  You can watch antiques roadshow or whatever and see the prices are plummeting. The comic community is still young and expanding. 

[ComicFill]

On 3/7/2022 at 3:53 AM, DavidTheDavid said:

If new releases are tanking, what happens when the vintage frenzy cools, too? What's the pivot then? Not a fair question, I know, but it does make you wonder.

Speaking broadly, there's a lot of great work being done in comics today, but ya, the cover prices are such that average collectors have to be choosy. 

It's speculators. That's why all the older stuff is skyrocketing. People are buying it up so when the character gets a movie or TV show the resale value goes up. Those people don't actually read comics, so they don't buy new stuff. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

[William-James88]

On 3/7/2022 at 6:03 PM, ComicFill said:

For sure. Stamp collectors are dying off without new collectors coming in. Same thing happens with things like dolls, silver, China, etc.  You can watch antiques roadshow or whatever and see the prices are plummeting. The comic community is still young and expanding. 

Interesting, in the 90s and early 00s the big dream was going to antiques roadshow and learning that your fire blower was worth a couple grand. 

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 3/7/2022 at 6:03 PM, ComicFill said:

The comic community is still young and expanding. 

X: Doubt

[jjonahjameson11]

On 3/7/2022 at 6:03 PM, ComicFill said:

For sure. Stamp collectors are dying off without new collectors coming in. Same thing happens with things like dolls, silver, China, etc.  You can watch antiques roadshow or whatever and see the prices are plummeting. The comic community is still young and expanding. 

Comic community is young and expanding?

I doubt this very much

[Bookery]

On 3/8/2022 at 7:26 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Comic community is young and expanding?

I doubt this very much

Agreed.  At least, it certainly isn't around here.  About half of our comics buyers are essentially flippers... some short term, some long term.  A few are actually quite successful at it, and make a decent side income from it.  The other half are   collectors, but most admit they only buy newer stuff because they always have and don't want to break their runs.  As for comics sales showing growth the past couple of years.  It's quite possible to have growth in sales, but not at the retail shop level.  The pandemic shut down access to shops in many areas for various periods, and even now many people are still working from home.  I think with millions locked in their homes, many began to explore on-line shopping more intensely than ever before.  And frankly... if you can buy new comics for 40% off and have them delivered to your door... why would you travel (at $5/gallon) to a physical location to pick them up at a much higher price?  People are slow to change patterns in their lives.  But given enough impetus, they will.

[1Cool]

On 3/8/2022 at 7:26 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Comic community is young and expanding?

I doubt this very much

No way in heck that the comic book collecting community is getting younger.  People consuming comics online or in trade paperbacks may be trending younger but I'd think that number pales compared to the number of 40 - 60 year old (primarily men) who collected comics.  There should be a bunch of years left on the old comic book train but the possible end of the tracks is closer then people are saying in this thread.  

[jjonahjameson11]

On 3/8/2022 at 8:25 AM, Bookery said:

Agreed.  At least, it certainly isn't around here.  About half of our comics buyers are essentially flippers... some short term, some long term.  A few are actually quite successful at it, and make a decent side income from it.  The other half are   collectors, but most admit they only buy newer stuff because they always have and don't want to break their runs.  As for comics sales showing growth the past couple of years.  It's quite possible to have growth in sales, but not at the retail shop level.  The pandemic shut down access to shops in many areas for various periods, and even now many people are still working from home.  I think with millions locked in their homes, many began to explore on-line shopping more intensely than ever before.  And frankly... if you can buy new comics for 40% off and have them delivered to your door... why would you travel (at $5/gallon) to a physical location to pick them up at a much higher price?  People are slow to change patterns in their lives.  But given enough impetus, they will.

 Agreed.

at least folks in the States still have cheap gas to travel to shows.  Here in Canada and moreso in Europe, prices are rising to ridiculous levels

[1Cool]

On 3/7/2022 at 10:37 AM, DavidTheDavid said:

I wondered that, too. I read this after going down the Google rabbit hole a bit after reading this thread earlier:

https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/comic-book-market-103903#:~:text=The market is projected to,all regions amid the pandemic.

As well as this:

https://comichron.com/blog/2021/06/29/comics-and-graphic-novel-sales-hit-new-high-in-pandemic-year/

Shift to digital is accelerating. Collectability continues to drive print sales. Big growth in Asia. Graphic novels going strong. Not extraordinary growth predicted, but it's still operating in the billions. 

My own LCS says things are great in all regards.

I do think it's easy to overstate the comic fandoms in regards to broader pop culture. Netmarble's mobile game MARVEL Future Fight has more than 100,000,000 installs. Look at box office receipts and digital games sales for comics-related IPs, and you can easily see that many, many millions of people around the world know these big properties. And it's easy to surmise that very few of them, relatively speaking, will convert to print or digital comic readers. My point is that most people consuming comics-themed content do so in a way that is essentially comics-adjacent. It's commodified for the masses and consumed alongside all the other pop culture content that is commodified for the masses. It's great that folks around the world know these characters, but they know next to nothing about the rich tradition of printed material that we all so greedily consume.

What you can see now, very plainly in the work of someone like Mark Millar, is that many creators are looking for the leap from print comics to a larger audience. So many comics read like story boards for movie or television series that I can't help but assume they are looking for their option contract with each page they draw.

Okay, I am rambling. It's a rabbit hole and I need to get back to work. But yeah, the industry trends are really interesting.

The orange line sure seems to be dropping fast over the last 6 years   At this rate we will drop below $250 million in actual comics in a few years.  That still seems like a lot of money but when comics cost $4 it's really only 62 million comics sold in totality.  It appears 60 million of these new comics are instantly sent in to get graded () so that does help to inflate the numbers a tad.

[JJ-4]

On 3/8/2022 at 8:02 AM, 1Cool said:

The orange line sure seems to be dropping fast over the last 6 years   At this rate we will drop below $250 million in actual comics in a few years.  That still seems like a lot of money but when comics cost $4 it's really only 62 million comics sold in totality.  It appears 60 million of these new comics are instantly sent in to get graded () so that does help to inflate the numbers a tad.

Cool graphic, would love to see this for units instead of dollars as well.