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2022 CGC Grading Contest Season 1 Spring Edition (#2) Round 1
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482 posts in this topic

On 4/25/2022 at 9:27 PM, grendelbo said:

Then can the consensus of our guesses in the contest be their grades?

:idea:

No, but we won't get our scores until 2024.

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I do wonder what happens when 95% of the people guess that the grade is X.0 and the grade on the slab is X.5.  Would that mean that the people who guessed X.5 “correctly” are right?.  I presume that the sample size of the number of books is large enough to where that won’t matter, but it is an interesting question. 

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On 4/26/2022 at 12:59 AM, Axe Elf said:

Grade them like there was an extra $20 in the centerfold.

Is the $20 attached by the staples or not? It makes a difference, you know.

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On 4/26/2022 at 12:03 AM, Westy Steve said:

I do wonder what happens when 95% of the people guess that the grade is X.0 and the grade on the slab is X.5.  Would that mean that the people who guessed X.5 “correctly” are right?.  I presume that the sample size of the number of books is large enough to where that won’t matter, but it is an interesting question. 

This actually happened in the last contest (though not quite THAT extreme).  I arrived too late to enter, but I analyzed the posted results and found that the bell curve of guesses tended to peak a little below the true grade, pretty much across the board.  I suggested as a result in future contests, people might want to add a grade to their original guesses to account for this bias, which was explained as people's expectation of harsh grading by CGC.  In other words, if you're thinking, "It's a X.5, but CGC would probably give it a X.0," then statistically, you should probably go with the X.5.

That's as a group, of course.  If your grades in the last contest were consistently 2 grades above the CGC grade, then you might want to tighten up a bit.

And if you're like me, who has never done this before, then your only hope is to get everyone else doubting themselves...

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On 4/26/2022 at 1:19 AM, Axe Elf said:

And if you're like me, who has never done this before, then your only hope is to get everyone else doubting themselves...

I will consider it a victory if I finish higher than my placement on the final alphabetical list of participants...

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