CGC now featuring newsstand copy designation 6 6

[Dr. Balls]

On 9/28/2022 at 11:38 AM, Sigur Ros said:

Same here.  I shopped at multiple LCS' so it was all direct.  But outside of that, at the conventions.. if there were 2 of the same book, I'd pick the one that didn't have the ugly bar code.  This was back when the ratios were more even and there was no NS premium.

Only times I did were when there was no option, or those ugly Marvel diamond price boxes were the only alternative.   Hate them more than I hated bar codes.

 

Isn't it weird that that little box on the cover can either work with, or against, the artwork on the cover. I'm sure some people look at it as nit-picking, but a little-forward thinking 40 years ago could have put the UPC on the back cover and alleviated carpal tunnel problems at the checkout since the cashier wouldn't have had to flip the book to scan it.

[FlyingDonut]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:18 PM, valiantman said:

Agreed on all 10 points.

We could spend the next 50 years calculating the ratios of newsstands to direct for various books at varying CGC grades and even if we get the same answers every time, it wouldn't be fact. It would be evidence that continues to support the conjecture and educated guess.

The problem is that books which really are 80 times harder to find (over and over) aren't necessarily 1:80 in reality (so it's not gospel), and there certainly isn't evidence they are 1:1,000 as some might exaggerate somewhere online, but the objection to the actual premiums being paid is also irrational.

People seem to be objecting to prices that aren't very extreme, as if it is completely ridiculous to pay 3.6 times the price for a book that's only turned up once in every 80 sales.  Should they be a similiar price? If not, then why is 3.6 too much? Why not 20 times the direct price? Why not 40 times the direct price? Is 3.6 really an insane multiplier?

What should the price be?

Who knows? That's a simple data collection exercise - lets look at 20/25/50 sales of the same book in the same grade newstand vs direct and make that decision. My assumption is that there isn't a fixed multiplier - I would imagine that as we move down the timeline the multiplier would go up - the multiplier for a Fantastic Four 257 (just as an example) is probably much smaller than an Ultimate Fallout 4 (just as an example).

[Sigur Ros]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:26 PM, FlyingDonut said:

Who knows? That's a simple data collection exercise - lets look at 20/25/50 sales of the same book in the same grade newstand vs direct and make that decision. My assumption is that there isn't a fixed multiplier - I would imagine that as we move down the timeline the multiplier would go up - the multiplier for a Fantastic Four 257 (just as an example) is probably much smaller than an Ultimate Fallout 4 (just as an example).

Welcome back.

I agree, newer NS are more valuable than older NS...relative to their direct versions. 

Considering scarcity and all... 

[valiantman]

On 9/28/2022 at 1:26 PM, FlyingDonut said:

Who knows? That's a simple data collection exercise - lets look at 20/25/50 sales of the same book in the same grade newstand vs direct and make that decision. My assumption is that there isn't a fixed multiplier - I would imagine that as we move down the timeline the multiplier would go up - the multiplier for a Fantastic Four 257 (just as an example) is probably much smaller than an Ultimate Fallout 4 (just as an example).

I agree. The first question that anyone should ask about "harder to find" books (whether they're standard publisher ratios, distribution like newsstand or Canadian Price Variant, a 35 cent price test, or whatever reason the book is different) is whether the most common edition of the book is collectible?

When the pages inside a book matter, there's an additional reason for collectors to be interested in all forms of the book, and more reason that low supply could be a problem if there's any demand at all.

Some of the "most valuable" variants have nothing going for them besides one edition has fewer available compared to the most common edition. The contents of the book are (effectively) meaningless, such as FF #257 (apologies to FF #257 fans, but the book is $1 on Ebay), or (dare I say it), Amazing Spider-Man #667. What's the value of Amazing Spider-Man #667 regular direct edition? Ummm... not good.

On the other hand, Ultimate Fallout #4 is a book that matters a lot even in its most common edition, just a plain old first print direct edition. The editions which are not exactly like the first print direct edition are the 1:25 retailer incentive and the newsstand. Later printings aren't first printings, so they're a bit of a different animal. 

Most people don't realize that every single sale of a CGC graded Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand has been a higher price than the same CGC grade for the Ultimate Fallout #4 1:25 Variant at that point in time.  

The last sale of a CGC 9.8 UF #4 Variant was $40,800 according to GPA in June 2022 and the last sale of a CGC 9.8 UF #4 Newsstand was $8,100 in June 2020, so it seems like the UF #4 Variant is winning, but the most recent sale of CGC 9.8 UF #4 Variant in June 2020 (when the Newsstand sold for $8,100) was $7,500.  Newsstand was higher than the variant the last time the 9.8 newsstand sold.  The CGC 9.6 newsstand was three times the CGC 9.6 variant price in 2020. The most recent CGC 9.4 sale for newsstand was higher than the CGC 9.4 variant. UF #4 Newsstand is flying under the radar despite higher prices than the variant because the newsstand sales are so infrequent.  Dare we say it?  Because the newsstand is so much tougher to find than the UF #4 variant.

Despite the UF #4 newsstand selling for more than the variant in 2020, there have been no more CGC 9.8 UF #4 Newsstand sales recorded on GPAnalysis since June 2020. 

The CGC 9.8 UF #4 Variant has sold 14 times since then.  

One of the biggest books that most people can name which was printed in the past 12 years is UF #4 Variant.  If the UF #4 Newsstand is already worth more now, when many don't even know it exists, when CGC didn't mention it on the label, what does the future hold when people actually find out?  Seems like things could be even more different now that CGC actually acknowledges what the market has always known.

Perhaps, as it has been suggested, there will be a flood of newsstands to CGC and into the market.   But more than two years has seen zero, despite a price more than $8,000 at the time.

Edited September 28, 2022 by valiantman

[Get Marwood & I]

On 9/28/2022 at 8:19 PM, valiantman said:

One of the biggest books that most people can name which was printed in the past 12 years is UF #4 Variant.  If the UF #4 Newsstand worth more now, when many don't even know it exists, what does the future hold when people actually find out?

 

[FlyingDonut]

On 9/28/2022 at 3:19 PM, valiantman said:

I agree. The first question that anyone should ask about "harder to find" books (whether they're standard publisher ratios, distribution like newsstand or Canadian Price Variant, or whatever reason the book is different) is whether the most common edition of the book is collectible?

When the pages inside a book matter, there's an additional reason for collectors to be interested in all forms of the book.

Some of the "most valuable" variants have nothing going for them besides one edition has fewer available compared to the most common edition. The contents of the book are (effectively) meaningless, such as FF #257 (apologies to FF #257 fans, but the book is $1 on Ebay), or (dare I say it), Amazing Spider-Man #667. What's the value of Amazing Spider-Man #667 regular direct edition? Ummm... not good.

On the other hand, Ultimate Fallout #4 is a book that matters a lot even in its most common edition, just a plain old first print direct edition. The editions which are not exactly like the first print direct edition are the 1:25 retailer incentive and the newsstand. Later printings aren't first printings, so they're a bit of a different animal. 

Most people don't realize that every single sale of a CGC graded Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand has been a higher price than the same CGC grade for the Ultimate Fallout #4 1:25 Variant at that point in time.  

The last sale of a CGC 9.8 UF #4 Variant was $40,800 according to GPA in June 2022 and the last sale of a CGC 9.8 UF #4 Newsstand was $8,100 in June 2020, so it seems like the UF #4 Variant is winning, but the most recent sale of CGC 9.8 UF #4 Variant in June 2020 (when the Newsstand sold for $8,100) was $7,500.  Newsstand was higher than variant the last time the 9.8 newsstand sold.  The CGC 9.6 newsstand was three times the CGC 9.6 variant price in 2020. The most recent CGC 9.4 sale for newsstand was higher than the CGC 9.4 variant. UF #4 Newsstand is flying under the radar despite higher prices than the variant because the newsstand sales are so infrequent.  Dare we say it?  Because the newsstand is so much tougher to find than the UF #4 variant.

Despite the UF #4 newsstand selling for more than the variant in 2020, there have been no more CGC 9.8 UF #4 Newsstand sales recorded on GPAnalysis since June 2020. 

The CGC 9.8 UF #4 Variant has sold 14 times since then.  

One of the biggest books that most people can name which was printed in the past 12 years is UF #4 Variant.  If the UF #4 Newsstand worth more now, when many don't even know it exists, what does the future hold when people actually find out?

Well, I'm not sure that the premise is accurate that people don't know it exists. I think its very very rare and would sell for a huge premium.

I do think it is very difficult to compare prices over the time period because we don't have an understanding of just how much the COVID bump was and when (if?) that stopped. Would a 9.8 newsstand UF 4 sell for more than $44K (the same percentage difference as the 2020 sales)? Probably(?) more, but how much more I don't know. Just need more data!

[valiantman]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:27 PM, FlyingDonut said:

Well, I'm not sure that the premise is accurate that people don't know it exists. I think its very very rare and would sell for a huge premium.

I do think it is very difficult to compare prices over the time period because we don't have an understanding of just how much the COVID bump was and when (if?) that stopped. Would a 9.8 newsstand UF 4 sell for more than $44K (the same percentage difference as the 2020 sales)? Probably(?) more, but how much more I don't know. Just need more data!

I agree, it's been too long on the CGC 9.8 UF #4 comparison. The CGC 9.4 situation has played out recently, $8,800 for newsstand in August 2022, and $8,000 for the variant less than a month later.

Back to the topic we're in... there is no reason the UF #4 newsstand shouldn't already be indicated on the CGC label, but until this week... it wasn't.

[valiantman]

... and then there's this: https://www.mycomicshop.com/search?ItemID=54096810

CGC 5.0 Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand, sold for $3,000 three weeks ago. That's the same price as the most recent CGC 8.5 Ultimate Fallout #4 Variant sale this week.

We don't know the actual ratios and any guesses are conjecture, but something has always been happening here and CGC is just now noticing (or just now doing something about it).

Edited September 28, 2022 by valiantman

[Mr. Zipper]

On 9/26/2022 at 10:07 AM, Axelrod said:

Because notating something that is readily apparent from looking at the cover (in the vast majority of cases, at least) is much more important than identifying defects which are hidden inside the sealed holder and completely unable to be detected.

Serious question. Are there newsstand editions that are indistinguishable from direct editions?

If not, what value does the notation on the CGC label add if it is stating the obvious? Are there collectors who will pay more for a slabbed "newsstand" copy because it has the label notation? 

[Sigur Ros]

On 9/28/2022 at 3:36 PM, valiantman said:

CGC is just now noticing (or just now doing something about it).

Actually, CGC has noted NS editions on slabs before... randomly.   Just not sure why.

[valiantman]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:39 PM, Sigur Ros said:

On 9/28/2022 at 2:36 PM, valiantman said:

CGC is just now noticing (or just now doing something about it).

Actually, CGC has noted NS editions on slabs before... randomly.   Just not sure why.

I meant for Ultimate Fallout #4, one of the biggest books in the past 12 years, where the market has never treated the newsstand like the direct edition, despite having identical CGC labels.

[F For Fake]

For me, I guess the big difference is that the newsstands will finally be added to the registry. However, for the newsies I have that are currently sitting in direct slots (or which haven't been registered at all, as there's no spot for them), I won't be paying for a reholder.

[valiantman]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:38 PM, Mr. Zipper said:

On 9/26/2022 at 9:07 AM, Axelrod said:

Because notating something that is readily apparent from looking at the cover (in the vast majority of cases, at least) is much more important than identifying defects which are hidden inside the sealed holder and completely unable to be detected.

Serious question. Are there newsstand editions that are indistinguishable from direct editions?

If not, what value does the notation on the CGC label add if it is stating the obvious? Are there collectors who will pay more for a slabbed "newsstand" copy because it has the label notation? 

I don't understand the argument in the first place. Why would CGC ever put "Variant Edition" on a label if it "is readily apparent from looking at the cover"?

There's more reason to indicate that a book like Ultimate Fallout #4 is newsstand on the CGC label than any reason to say that Ultimate Fallout #4 Variant is a variant. Of course it's a variant, the cover isn't the same! Why would CGC waste time labeling it as a variant?

Again, I don't understand the original @Axelrod objection.

[FlyingDonut]

On 9/28/2022 at 3:30 PM, valiantman said:

I agree, it's been too long on the CGC 9.8 UF #4 comparison. The CGC 9.4 situation has played out recently, $8,800 for newsstand in August 2022, and $8,000 for the variant less than a month later.

Back to the topic we're in... there is no reason the UF #4 newsstand shouldn't already be indicated on the CGC label, but until this week... it wasn't.

so that's a 1.1 bump - that strikes me as being too low but at least a starting point for data. I'm not at a place where I can get my GPA right now - what's the running price on a 9.4 regular edition?

[Qalyar]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:39 PM, Sigur Ros said:

Actually, CGC has noted NS editions on slabs before... randomly.   Just not sure why.

CGC's previous policy was to differentiate NS editions from DM editions when there was something -- anything -- other than the barcode/image box that distinguishes the two. In a lot of cases, the NS books have a different cover price, or some added (or removed) line of text. In the case of some Spawn issues, the difference is paper; the NS were printed on a thinner, less-glossy paper stock than the DM copies.

Needless to say, this was sometimes somewhat arbitrary.

[valiantman]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:44 PM, FlyingDonut said:

so that's a 1.1 bump - that strikes me as being too low but at least a starting point for data. I'm not at a place where I can get my GPA right now - what's the running price on a 9.4 regular edition?

$710

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:43 PM, valiantman said:

On 9/28/2022 at 2:38 PM, Mr. Zipper said:

On 9/26/2022 at 9:07 AM, Axelrod said:

Because notating something that is readily apparent from looking at the cover (in the vast majority of cases, at least) is much more important than identifying defects which are hidden inside the sealed holder and completely unable to be detected.

Serious question. Are there newsstand editions that are indistinguishable from direct editions?

If not, what value does the notation on the CGC label add if it is stating the obvious? Are there collectors who will pay more for a slabbed "newsstand" copy because it has the label notation? 

Expand  

I don't understand the argument in the first place. Why would CGC ever put "Variant Edition" on a label if it "is readily apparent from looking at the cover"?

There's more reason to indicate that a book like Ultimate Fallout #4 is newsstand on the CGC label than any reason to say that Ultimate Fallout #4 Variant is a variant. Of course it's a variant, the cover isn't the same! Why would CGC waste time labeling it as a variant?

Again, I don't understand the original @Axelrod objection.

or that Canadian price and 30 cent price are also "obvious", yet get a "notation" too  

[valiantman]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:44 PM, Qalyar said:

On 9/28/2022 at 2:39 PM, Sigur Ros said:

Actually, CGC has noted NS editions on slabs before... randomly.   Just not sure why.

CGC's previous policy was to differentiate NS editions from DM editions when there was something -- anything -- other than the barcode/image box that distinguishes the two. In a lot of cases, the NS books have a different cover price, or some added (or removed) line of text. In the case of some Spawn issues, the difference is paper; the NS were printed on a thinner, less-glossy paper stock than the DM copies.

Needless to say, this was sometimes somewhat arbitrary.

Yes, it's funny because CGC was on the right track by looking for "something -- anything -- other than the barcode" but they didn't ask why something would be different.  Those differences were due to the differences in distribution practices, the returnability, the venues which would hold those newsstands, all the differences that already existed whether the publisher used cheaper paper or not.

Edited September 28, 2022 by valiantman

[Qalyar]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:48 PM, valiantman said:

Yes, it's funny because CGC was on the right track by looking for "something -- anything -- other than the barcode" but they didn't ask why something would be different.  Those differences were due to the differences in distribution practices, the returnability, the venues which would hold those newsstands, all the differences that already existed whether they used cheaper paper or not.

And at least in some cases, the physical printer.

Needless to say, I'm really happy with this change. Now, if we can just get CGC to end the occasional practice of "two different covers exist" and similar things of that nature for books they decided weren't interesting enough to break out, that'd also be great!

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:48 PM, valiantman said:

Yes, it's funny because CGC was on the right track by looking for "something -- anything -- other than the barcode" but they didn't ask why something would be different.  Those differences were due to the differences in distribution practices, the returnability, the venues which would hold those newsstands, all the differences that already existed whether they used cheaper paper or not.

this is where I started the thread that at, it oversaturates the Newsstand Label "market", it just doesn't mean the same thing.

Instead people "may" have to ask, "why is it a newsstand edition?" 

given price differences are notated on the label, but when you look at a book like X-force #116, it just says newsstand edition  

so idk, seems like a long way to go for clarity, I guess that is the future?  

Edited September 28, 2022 by ADAMANTIUM