Please help me understand this Promise Pedigree grade, it hurts my brain. 2 2

[MrBedrock]

There were 5000 books in the Promise collection. Y'all have shown about 40 books that arguably could be considered overgraded. That is less than 1%.

[buttock]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:21 PM, MrBedrock said:

There were 5000 books in the Promise collection. Y'all have shown about 40 books that arguably could be considered overgraded. That is less than 1%.

Quit trying to use facts and reason to make your point.  

[Azkaban]

after this collection I know all my books are at least 9.4 and higher, no joke

[Professor K]

On 2/12/2023 at 2:21 PM, MrBedrock said:

There were 5000 books in the Promise collection. Y'all have shown about 40 books that arguably could be considered overgraded. That is less than 1%.

 

On 2/12/2023 at 2:22 PM, buttock said:

Quit trying to use facts and reason to make your point.  

This is one of those topics where that little voice inside keeps saying ,"Stay out of it, stay out of it". Another guy here who (whom?) I respect a great deal stated most of the books were graded 3 to 5 incriments higher. I think that is an exaggeration. Just focusing on the high grade stuff, less than 1%? Maybe that might be an exaggeration also? 

I compared a lot of them as they appeared on HA to other pedigrees and high grade copies, Church examples included in the same grade range. I know you guys have seen a lot more than me, even held them in your hands ungraded so you know better than me fer sure. It just looked to me that an amount, be it a fair, moderate or large amount is matter of opinion but at least some were clearly over-graded. If they were over-graded and done so intentionally we'll never know for sure but we can sure think it a possibility.

[Phill the Governor]

On 2/12/2023 at 1:55 PM, Funnybooks said:

What's the point of CGC as a trusted third party assessor if we, as consumers need to buy the book and not the label? 

On 2/12/2023 at 2:20 PM, Artboy99 said:

completely agree. 

 

@Artboy99 I know I wrote a paragraph up there responding to you, saying the same exact thing, but It's good to know we're in agreement of this.

 

On 2/12/2023 at 2:18 PM, buttock said:

It's only fair to imply things that you believe, but weren't stated?  I'm not following this logic.  Feel free to assume implications in what you say, but don't put words in my mouth.  

 

You seem to be selective in what words you choose to accept. On one hand you think "most of the books were accurately graded.  There were several that were egregiously overgraded, but taken as a whole the reputation that "all promise books are overgraded" is just wrong." - your words.

At the same time, you have a problem with me clarifying that by labeling the group of mis-graded books as "several". It gives a false impression of the scope, since, according to @MrBedrock the number is at least 40. Which would be several dozen. So your unconscious bias is showing.

That number, at a minimum is troubling.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Phill the Governor

[Funnybooks]

perception = reality

The perception is that as a whole, the collection was given the benefit of the doubt that non-pedigree books would never have been given. This is the reality.

[jimbo_7071]

@Phill the Governor

Since you mentioned tears, I should point out that there were some high grade books in the Promise Collection with worse ones than the Tec 166, but they didn't get a 9.6 grade.

Tiny edge tears are fairly common in the 8.0–9.0 range, but the tears on these two appear to be bigger than what I've seen above the FINE range.

As for the Tec 166, I wouldn't grade it above 9.0 based on the cumulative defects I can see in the scan, mainly the spine ticks and the tear. I wouldn't grade it down for the shadows because CGC has always been lenient with those even in high grades.

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 2/12/2023 at 1:56 PM, lou_fine said:

Even more telling than the sea of red ink here is the fact that virtually not a single one of these resellers have even dare to send their book back in for either pressing and/or regrading, especially considering the rampant CPR focused marketplace environment which we are currently in.  

Would the books not have already paid a visit to the massage parlour prior to encapsulation?

Edited February 13, 2023 by THE_BEYONDER

[tth2]

On 2/13/2023 at 1:08 AM, Phill the Governor said:

I think that by phrasing the argument "most of the books in the collection" it takes focus away from the fact that there are definitely books there were over-graded. Then it becomes an exercise of one book at a time instead of focusing on the semantics of how the argument was phrased. Probably better to just say there are a number of over-graded books instead of "most of the books are over-graded".

Regardless, I think at a certain point the "buy the book not the grade" falls flat when an unsuspecting buyer, like the one with the Tec 166 shells out 5 figures more than the book is worth because they don't trust their grading skills (that's why they're buying an already graded book!) and believe the book was accurately graded by CGC. I can't rationalize an excuse that is fair, and "buy the book not the grade" doesn't cut it with that much money involved. It's not our job to identify the grade and buy the book, doesn't that defeat the purpose of CGC's grade in the first place?

At best, this could be chalked up to human error of inconsistent/overgrading. But if it is true that many Promise books have been selling for less the second time around, is that not also an indicator of a scheme that rhymes with fonzi, given the the worst, most damning scenario?

No.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:55 PM, Funnybooks said:

What's the point of CGC as a trusted third party assessor if we, as consumers need to buy the book and not the label? 

You're describing a paradox, ...and unfortunately both of their offices are closed at this hour! 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Cat-Man_America
Ale!

[lou_fine]

On 2/12/2023 at 10:58 AM, Funnybooks said:

anyone who does not entertain the idea that HA and CGC having a synergistic relationship is either naive or has a special interest to protect

Well, I think we all need to understand that CCG is a business entity and as such, the goal of every business entity is to maximize value (i.e. the top and bottom lines) for their ownership or shareholders.  One of the methods to obtain value is through mergers and/or acquisitions and the driving force for them is the hope for subsequent realization of business synergies. 

In a vertically integrated business environment like what we have here with CCG and their umbrella of subsidiary companies, sometimes business synergies can be obtained by coming up with a business plan to maximize customer returns.  Especially if you can devise some method to convince them to return and pay you and/or your associated companies for the exact same product multiple times.  Other times, business synergies can also be obtained by simply maximizing top dollar for your customer, especially if you have a relationship with that particular customer, whether it be indirect or direct.  

Of course, business is often very complex and grey and not just simple black and white.  As such, for the life of me, I just can't figure out which one of these business synergy plans they are leaning more towards when it comes to the Promise Collection books.    

[lou_fine]

On 2/12/2023 at 11:20 AM, buttock said:

If a book can't be graded from a scan then this thread should stop, but that's not the case.  That's true in some cases, and not in others.  Just like some Promise books were overgraded and some were undergraded.  Both things can be true, but no universal rule applies.  

Yes, a book cannot be accurately graded unless you actually have it in hand so that you can inspect the entire book in detail.  

A visual scan of the front and back covers will at times though allow you to determine that a book has been overgraded based solely upon the visual defects.  The same visual scan, however, will not allow you determine to the same extent if a book has possibly been undergraded.  And as such, it's quite possible there might actually be some undergraded books in the Promise Collection.    

[lou_fine]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:03 PM, szav said:

There was a perfect macroeconomic storm for collectables to skyrocket in general and the tidal wave of easy money that fueled it has receded.... of course prices are dropping.

Based upon your above noted rationale for the collapsing prices upon resale, it should be pointed out that the Promise Collection consisted only of GA books and there were no BA, CA, or even SA books in the collection.  

Especially since the GA books which I am looking at seems to either be continuing their price movement upwards or at least holding their own for now. 

A more likely reason for the collapse in prices upon resale is that potential bidders brought into all of the overblown hype by Heritage which were reinforced by the CGC grades and simply way overpay for the books on their first go round.  As such, it's really on the bidders themselves as nobody put a gun to their head to bid whatever amounts they did bid in the end.  

Edited February 13, 2023 by lou_fine

[Professor K]

On 2/13/2023 at 1:59 AM, lou_fine said:

Well, I think we all need to understand that CCG is a business entity and as such, the goal of every business entity is to maximize value (i.e. the top and bottom lines) for their ownership or shareholders.  One of the methods to obtain value is through mergers and/or acquisitions and the driving force for them is the hope for subsequent realization of business synergies. 

In a vertically integrated business environment like what we have here with CCG and their umbrella of subsidiary companies, sometimes business synergies can be obtained by coming up with a business plan to maximize customer returns.  Especially if you can devise some method to convince them to return and pay you and/or your associated companies for the exact same product multiple times.  Other times, business synergies can also be obtained by simply maximizing top dollar for your customer, especially if you have a relationship with that particular customer, whether it be indirect or direct.  

Of course, business is often very complex and grey and not just simple black and white.  As such, for the life of me, I just can't figure out which one of these business synergy plans they are leaning more towards when it comes to the Promise Collection books.    

Sounds like fancy talk for..........you know.

[lou_fine]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:29 PM, Funnybooks said:

perception = reality

The perception is that as a whole, the collection was given the benefit of the doubt that non-pedigree books would never have been given. This is the reality.

The perception is that the Promise Collection as a whole was given the benefit of the doubt that books had they been submitted by either you, me, or Joe Schmo would never have received.    

[lou_fine]

On 2/12/2023 at 8:03 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Would the books not have already paid a visit to the massage parlour prior to encapsulation?

Are you really trying to tell me you would not go back to the massage parlour for a repeat second treatment here:    

Edited February 13, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 2/12/2023 at 8:45 PM, tth2 said:

On 2/12/2023 at 9:08 AM, Phill the Governor said:

is that not also an indicator of a scheme that rhymes with fonzi, 

No.

Are you really trying to say NO to the Fonz.......................................I think he wants to see YOU in the back alley then:    

  

[LowGradeBronze]

Good to know the Promise Collection is always good for generating a discussion! 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 2/13/2023 at 12:33 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

You're describing a paradox, ...and unfortunately both of their offices are closed at this hour! 

Friggin ouch!

[Phill the Governor]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:08 PM, Phill the Governor said:

I think that by phrasing the argument "most of the books in the collection" it takes focus away from the fact that there are definitely books there were over-graded. Then it becomes an exercise of one book at a time instead of focusing on the semantics of how the argument was phrased. Probably better to just say there are a number of over-graded books instead of "most of the books are over-graded".

Regardless, I think at a certain point the "buy the book not the grade" falls flat when an unsuspecting buyer, like the one with the Tec 166 shells out 5 figures more than the book is worth because they don't trust their grading skills (that's why they're buying an already graded book!) and believe the book was accurately graded by CGC. I can't rationalize an excuse that is fair, and "buy the book not the grade" doesn't cut it with that much money involved. It's not our job to identify the grade and buy the book, doesn't that defeat the purpose of CGC's grade in the first place?

At best, this could be chalked up to human error of inconsistent/overgrading. But if it is true that many Promise books have been selling for less the second time around, is that not also an indicator of a scheme that rhymes with fonzi, given the the worst, most damning scenario?

On 2/12/2023 at 11:45 PM, tth2 said:

No.

 

I said it could be only (and is only) one of two things given a best/worst case scenario and he just says "No."

Read it again with your rose colored glasses taken off: I presented the two most likely scenarios. At least reply saying it's human error/inconsistent grading, yeesh.

Responses like this, or crying "injustice!" and posting some books from the Pedigree that do appear to be graded accurately, are doing absolutely no favors to the "there's nothing going on here" side of the argument; contrary what you guys may believe.