To Pedigree or not to Pedigree, That is the question? 0

[Crowzilla]

On 8/15/2023 at 10:26 PM, sfcityduck said:

Of the CGC graded Action 1s above 6.0 (2 x 6.0, 2 x 6.5, 1 x 7.5, 1 x 8.0, 2 x 9.0), only the Kansas City at 8.0 is in the Top 10.  That's a 10% pedigree population with the top 3 graded copies being non-peds. Even if you throw in the ungraded Larson (said to be an 8.0) and the Mile High (said to be a 9.2-9.4), and ignore other Action 1s not graded by CGC, only 25% of the CGC graded Action 1s above 6.0 would be graded copies and 3 of the top 4 would be non-peds.  The Billy Wright is only a 3.0.

The Larson is one of the 8.5s on the census

[sfcityduck]

On 8/15/2023 at 8:03 PM, Crowzilla said:

The Larson is one of the 8.5s on the census

Rob "It's All Just Comics" let me down. But it doesn't really change the analysis much.  There's more high grade non-peds than peds even if you factor in the famous ungraded peds.

Another example: Superman 1.  DA chose a non-ped over the Church. Of the 5 copies said to be 6.0+, only one is a ped (20%).  

This is not a dis of ped quality. It is a exposition on non-ped quality.

Edited August 16, 2023 by sfcityduck

[Crowzilla]

On 8/15/2023 at 10:26 PM, sfcityduck said:

 For example, there are more non-ped high grade Action 1s and D27s than ped copies.

Since there are 77 graded Action 1s, and only four pedigree Action 1s, doesn't the law of numbers mean that that there will be more nicer non-peds than peds?

If we accept that the Church is the nicest, that means that half of the top six are peds.  So 78 copies of Action 1 (77 graded and the Church) and the 5% of those we call pedigrees are the nicest known and half of the six nicest known. Pretty solid numbers if you ask me.

[sfcityduck]

On 8/15/2023 at 8:57 PM, Crowzilla said:

Since there are 77 graded Action 1s, and only four pedigree Action 1s, doesn't the law of numbers mean that that there will be more nicer non-peds than peds?

 

Yes. Exactly. Which is why the notion that you have to buy a ped to get a high grade copy ignores a ton of high grade non-peds. As I said up thread, a ton of great collections came to market prior to the ped concept being invented. So there are a lot of non-peds which are nice copies. I suspect that many are not yet graded because they were snatched up. There are also peds which are low grade. As you note, the numbers back up that it would be a bad idea to ignore non-peds if you want a high grade Action 1, D27 or Superman 1 (the top three books). Neither of Hariri's two top of Census graded Action 1s are from a ped. But DA's MH copy may never be sold or graded. It might as well be the Loch Ness Monster when talking about the books you can hope to own.

I just find the dissing of high grade non-peds really strange. It seems that for rational people the ped should not matter unless the back story adds something of value. It does for some peds, but not the majority. Does the back story on the Allentown collection add any value? No. There is no backstory of any note. The value derives from the incredibly high grades. The Allentown Boy Commandos 1 8.0 cream to off-white sold for $2,400 in November 2019, less than a non-Ped 7.5 off-white to white sold one year earlier.  To me, that's a market which is being rational because that Allentown is not incredibly high grade and has inferior PQ. Call me crazy.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 8/15/2023 at 1:48 PM, Robot Man said:

I was referring mostly to genre. If you can live with a western, humor, average romance or crime, a lot can still be had at pretty low prices. I just bought a beautiful Nyoka the Jungle Girl for $110. 

Living in Texas, I live with western, humor and crime, ...alas less than average romance.

On 8/15/2023 at 10:57 PM, Crowzilla said:

Since there are 77 graded Action 1s, and only four pedigree Action 1s, doesn't the law of numbers mean that that there will be more nicer non-peds than peds?

If we accept that the Church is the nicest, that means that half of the top six are peds.  So 78 copies of Action 1 (77 graded and the Church) and the 5% of those we call pedigrees are the nicest known and half of the six nicest known. Pretty solid numbers if you ask me.

This looks like one of the questions I missed on the exam.

Let's see, if Charlie had a copy of Action #1 and divided it between Jane, Freddie and Adam, then got it back and let his cousin Billy thumb through it, how many years would it have to be in his collection before his granddaughter Rita discovered her crazy packrat grandpa left her a gold mine? 

Now (bonus points), how many books would Charlie's collection have to contain before being designated a pedigree without Action #1 being in high grade? 

[lou_fine]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:26 PM, sfcityduck said:

I do agree that because a criteria for ped status is high grade, there probably is a correlation to ped status and higher grades.

That was what I also thought and the main reason why I was rather surprised when they decided to add in the Cookville, Eldon, and Harold Curtis as offical CGC pedigrees when they were introducing and promoting their new CGC pedigree  label back in 2019.    

You would probably need to send out an dvanced search party with next gen high tech binoculars to scour through these 3 so-called "pedigree" collections to find a book that would grade into the 9's.   

I imagine the key criteria used to justify ped status here was ease of identification along with the rather large size of these 3 collections which probably left visions of reholders and possibly even squeezable and huggable resubs dancing through their heads.    

Edited August 16, 2023 by lou_fine

[adamstrange]

On 8/16/2023 at 12:41 AM, sfcityduck said:

Yes. Exactly. Which is why the notion that you have to buy a ped to get a high grade copy ignores a ton of high grade non-peds. As I said up thread, a ton of great collections came to market prior to the ped concept being invented. So there are a lot of non-peds which are nice copies. I suspect that many are not yet graded because they were snatched up. There are also peds which are low grade. As you note, the numbers back up that it would be a bad idea to ignore non-peds if you want a high grade Action 1, D27 or Superman 1 (the top three books). Neither of Hariri's two top of Census graded Action 1s are from a ped. But DA's MH copy may never be sold or graded. It might as well be the Loch Ness Monster when talking about the books you can hope to own.

I just find the dissing of high grade non-peds really strange. It seems that for rational people the ped should not matter unless the back story adds something of value. It does for some peds, but not the majority. Does the back story on the Allentown collection add any value? No. There is no backstory of any note. The value derives from the incredibly high grades. The Allentown Boy Commandos 1 8.0 cream to off-white sold for $2,400 in November 2019, less than a non-Ped 7.5 off-white to white sold one year earlier.  To me, that's a market which is being rational because that Allentown is not incredibly high grade and has inferior PQ. Call me crazy.

I encourage more collectors to share your view as that will result in less competition for me.

Originally, the pedigree designation was given not just because of being high grade, but because of being high grade and outstanding state of preservation.  That state of preservation was manifested in ink reflectivity, color retention, mirror flat surface, cover whiteness, and interior page quality.  These attributes are generally harder to grade and even CGC accounts only minimally for them relative to general structural defects like spine stress, tears, stains etc.  Collectors paid extra for a pedigree to get a copy superior in all these aspects.

Sellers liked the idea of getting extra money for a copy, so they started marketing any old original owner collection as a "pedigree" to get that super sweet markup.  Rinse and repeat, and we now get OO collections like Eldon labeled as a pedigree instead of being addressed as "From the Collection Of" like Bobby Blue.

TL DR: Some pedigrees on the CGC pedigree list are more equal than others.  If you know, you know.

[Marty Mann]

I'd  be happy  with "From The Marty Mann PARK AVENUE COLLECTION".

[Robot Man]

On 8/16/2023 at 12:53 PM, Marty Mann said:

I'd  be happy  with "From The Marty Mann PARK AVENUE COLLECTION".

All you have to do is have a very major dealer or auction house send in your entire collection, pay a little under the table and it could maybe become a reality…

[jimbo_7071]

On 8/16/2023 at 3:38 PM, adamstrange said:

Sellers liked the idea of getting extra money for a copy, so they started marketing any old original owner collection as a "pedigree" to get that super sweet markup.  Rinse and repeat, and we now get OO collections like Eldon labeled as a pedigree instead of being addressed as "From the Collection Of" like Bobby Blue.

TL DR: Some pedigrees on the CGC pedigree list are more equal than others.  If you know, you know.

The collectors outside looked from original owner to pedigree, and from pedigree to original owner, and from original owner to pedigree again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.

[Marty Mann]

On 8/16/2023 at 5:55 PM, Robot Man said:

All you have to do is have a very major dealer or auction house send in your entire collection, pay a little under the table and it could maybe become a reality…

Like this will ever happen!