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A Softening Art Market Has Hit Last Years Auction Stars
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Started by Stefanomjr,

197 posts in this topic

Rick2you2

Rick2you2

Posted
Posted
On 9/20/2023 at 11:09 PM, tth2 said:

Sometimes there's a reason why art was affordable/cheap in the first place.

True, but from an objective perspective, I remain unimpressed with a lot of Silver Age art. The illustration skills of the artists could be high, but the nature of panel page design wasn’t so hot. That didn’t start improving significantly, I think, until the Bronze Age. So, what you have been seeing on a lot of Silver Age art, IMO, is nostalgia-based pricing.

Let me add that for cheaper art, at least some pages are down. Burkey had a page he sold on DD for $200 about a year ago after it had been sitting on his website for a few years. It just sold on Heritage for $192, including Buyer’s Premium. I didn’t even want it, and I can be pretty omnivorous when it comes to PS-related art. 

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vodou

vodou

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Posted

This entire thread, the article OP first linked to…all much ado about nothing. Give non-hobby economic and “other” factors a few more years “to mature” and this present “softening” some speak of will be seen, in hindsight, as another and possibly the last great buying opportunity - for speculation and wealth preservation. Nothing has changed, this trend has been in motion since the September 1985 Plaza Accord and will continue through 2032.

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PhilipB2k17

PhilipB2k17

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On 9/20/2023 at 5:43 PM, the blob said:

The OP was referencing an article on the general fine art market. While I don't think OA and "fine art" are completely independent and excess money influences both, I am not sure if a softening of demand on six figure work (which can happen independent of easy money) necessarily filters down into $500 OA or even some $15K grail OA art.   On the high end art market, it is a weird balance. If the stock market is doing 25% folks who might be interested in acquiring more big time art have more funds for it, but on the flip side, why tie up $500K in some painting if you're making 25% in the market? Hard for me to grasp as I am so far from that. 

 

 

You can park $250K in a federally protected high yield money market account and earn 5% on it right now. That's why people are not speculating on collectibles as much. Why do that when you can get a guaranteed 5% compounded return on an FDIC insured account? The speculators out of the market, and it's just collectors and dealers. 

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PhilipB2k17

PhilipB2k17

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On 9/21/2023 at 10:58 AM, Bronty said:

ha, that's a fun article

That Bob Ross painting has far more in common with Comic art than fine art. i.e. its  value is that it was Bob Ross' first painting and he's a cultural figure. If he was just some unknown art teacher, it would probably be worth $150. 

 

Although, on another note, imagine trying to fake a screen painted Bob Ross painting. You could compare each and every brush stroke of the painting to the video of him painting it and sniff out a fake in about 5 minutes. 

Edited by PhilipB2k17
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grapeape

grapeape

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On 9/20/2023 at 9:44 AM, comix4fun said:

I only wish the items, titles, issues, artists on my wish/want list were softening. 

Agree. I can definitely see softness in the market. It doesn't translate to wins for me at auction though. Maybe I'm unlucky. Maybe my tastes don't match up with my billfold. 

I've won 2 comic auctions but I'm 0-20 in the HA original auctions. If I were an NFL quarterback and my bids (passes) were dropped by the wide receiver (auction house) we'd be out of a job.

A thought: To covid 19 markets, shill bidders, friends and family bump bids, dealers looking for 5x flips, auction houses and consignors presenting inaccurate, fraudulent or misleading descriptions of art,  FMV manipulation, mediocre art with A level artist ask prices, DROP DEAD. and if I've forgot anything please let us know.

Addendum: punishment bids targeting a rival who goes after your want lists are 100% sanctioned.

Vote GRAPEAPE 2024

🍇 + 🦍 

 

 


 

 

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All-Star Squadman

All-Star Squadman

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Does not seem to have softened on any pieces I go after :( Sure wish it would.   Take the sublimation of Sal B Hulk pages in the past 2 years.

Plausible reason for my not seeing any softening is stuff within my now very limited focus is mostly locked away in collections including my own? The OA market is wide but my interests are very narrow...

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Bronty

Bronty

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On 9/21/2023 at 11:55 AM, PhilipB2k17 said:

That Bob Ross painting has far more in common with Comic art than fine art. i.e. its  value is that it was Bob Ross' first painting and he's a cultural figure. If he was just some unknown art teacher, it would probably be worth $150. 

 

Although, on another note, imagine trying to fake a screen painted Bob Ross painting. You could compare each and every brush stroke of the painting to the video of him painting it and sniff out a fake in about 5 minutes. 

agreed.

The only thing I have to add is the whole rookie card angle that is being discussed doesn't have much relevance.

I don't think there's an enormous difference in value between the 1st painting he painted on TV and 2nd, 3rd, or the 100th.     What I remember about that show more than anything is that every episode and every painting were basically interchangeable.    'Happy little tree' over here, 'happy little tree' over there, etc.

While I do think there is SOME value bump there for it being from the first episode, at auction I think that's more 50k than 10m.

The IDEA of paying big money for the first screen matched Ross painting might sound like a fun thing to do, but I don't think anyone will actually do it... not past 50-100k anyways.    Of course, this is all conjecture..

Edited by Bronty
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the blob

the blob

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Posted (edited)
On 9/21/2023 at 11:55 AM, PhilipB2k17 said:

That Bob Ross painting has far more in common with Comic art than fine art. i.e. its  value is that it was Bob Ross' first painting and he's a cultural figure. If he was just some unknown art teacher, it would probably be worth $150. 

 

Although, on another note, imagine trying to fake a screen painted Bob Ross painting. You could compare each and every brush stroke of the painting to the video of him painting it and sniff out a fake in about 5 minutes. 

I think every single painting Ross did since he became a TV personality is catalogued. My understanding is that the vast bulk are warehoused and they keep tight control over what comes to market, sort of like Debeers diamonds, perhaps creating a false sense of scarcity. He painted a huge number of paintings. Who the they is I dunno, but I remember reading stuff about this when they first started with the documentaries on him.

 

 

Edited by the blob
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Timecapsule85

Timecapsule85

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On 9/20/2023 at 7:37 PM, Xatari said:

For what it's worth, I don't see first appearance art softening.  I am an active buyer, and prices continue to be strong enough to where I am having to be much more selective and try to be patient.

This comment is spot on. Looking at some of the auctions this year first appearance pieces have remained strong both on the lower and higher ends of the market at least at auction. There is clearly a very strong demand for this type of material. I don't think whatever is going on outside of the comic art market is negatively impacting that. 

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thethedew

thethedew

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On 9/21/2023 at 1:33 PM, Bronty said:

agreed.

The only thing I have to add is the whole rookie card angle that is being discussed doesn't have much relevance.

I don't think there's an enormous difference in value between the 1st painting he painted on TV and 2nd, 3rd, or the 100th.     What I remember about that show more than anything is that every episode and every painting were basically interchangeable.    'Happy little tree' over here, 'happy little tree' over there, etc.

While I do think there is SOME value bump there for it being from the first episode, at auction I think that's more 50k than 10m.

The IDEA of paying big money for the first screen matched Ross painting might sound like a fun thing to do, but I don't think anyone will actually do it... not past 50-100k anyways.    Of course, this is all conjecture..

In addition, IIRC he supposedly did THREE versions of each painting produced for TV:
1) Prelim done in advance of taping; so of COURSE the art was not as spontaneous as the show made it seem
2) The piece done on-air
3) Tight version done after the show aired; why he would bother is beyond me
       (though this whole process might not have been in place for his first show)

I imagine the created-on-air version would be the desirable one to own, but who knows?

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Terry E. Gibbs

Terry E. Gibbs

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On 9/21/2023 at 3:56 AM, Michael Browning said:

I think that, for the 2020-2021 period, ALL art was going up and I am seeing that settle down. I see values dropping severely in the main DC titles, but then art from series like Vigilante are soaring.

Are you talking modern DC or SA, and higher value pieces ??

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tth2

tth2

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On 9/21/2023 at 11:53 PM, PhilipB2k17 said:

You can park $250K in a federally protected high yield money market account and earn 5% on it right now. That's why people are not speculating on collectibles as much. Why do that when you can get a guaranteed 5% compounded return on an FDIC insured account? The speculators out of the market, and it's just collectors and dealers. 

I'm pretty sure that all those backwards-baseball-cap-wearing Card and Comic/OA Bros have never done a MM/CD/T-bill vs. collectible ROI calculation in their life. 

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Bronty

Bronty

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Posted (edited)
On 9/22/2023 at 12:04 AM, tth2 said:

I'm pretty sure that all those backwards-baseball-cap-wearing Card and Comic/OA Bros have never done a MM/CD/T-bill vs. collectible ROI calculation in their life. 

In fairness, there's hardly any point.     A collectible ROI calculation is mental masturbation.    Collectibles don't appreciate in a straight line, don't give predictable returns, and every collectible appreciates - or depreciates - differently.    Any calc would be so laden with assumptions as to be essentially worthless.

Edited by Bronty
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