A Softening Art Market Has Hit Last Years Auction Stars 1 1

[tth2]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:59 PM, PhilipB2k17 said:

Many speculators DO try to make the calculation, contrary to what some here have argued. At least back of the hand, or SWAG. They have to, otherwise they wouldn't pick one investment vehicle over another. It's a lot easier to park cash in a high yield savings account than to guess as to whether a Mike Zeck Punisher page is going to appreciate at a daily compounded rate of 5% apy

I guarantee the vast majority of the speculators don't do this.  Most of these guys are hustlers and/or gamblers.  They're looking for get rich schemes where they can hit home runs.  They're not interested in drawing walks or hitting singles.  If collectibles and meme stocks have dried up, then they're making crazy prop bets on DraftKings.

[tth2]

On 9/24/2023 at 10:22 AM, delekkerste said:

On 9/24/2023 at 10:13 AM, cstojano said:

I'm sure the consignore is happy with this graded record result:

https://entertainment.ha.com/itm/music-memorabilia/recordings/vangelis-china-sealed-lp-vinyl-record-encapsulated-by-tuned-in-grading-polydor-pd-1-6199-rated-75/a/41180-5621.s?type=bidnotice-tracked-endofauction

LOL, yeah, a Pat Benatar graded album sold for $61 ($12 hammer, $49 BP) as well. $50 ($1 hammer, $49 BP) for Vangelis, sheesh. 

Results for posters in this Heritage auction were pretty weak across the board.  So weak that Heritage added the following notice in the description for several of the rock poster listings a few days before the live auction:

"Note: We feel this poster is actually a Signature-auction item (live auctioneer, catalog placement) that we appraise at being generally worth over $1,000, as evidenced by results in the last couple of years here at Heritage. However, we're including this poster now in our Showcase auctions sometimes because we wanted to satisfy our consignors and offer our customers more than just three chances a year to win one. And of course the CGC grade, or no grading at all, could affect this placement as well. At any rate, good luck!"*

*One of the two lots that this notice was added to ended up at $512.50, while the other ended up at $1250. 

 

[John E.]

On 9/23/2023 at 9:02 PM, Benedict Judas Hel said:

I would hope so!  I would be worried if they didn’t!

Your worry is equal or greater to mine 😵‍💫

[cstojano]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:51 PM, tth2 said:

Results for posters in this Heritage auction were pretty weak across the board.  So weak that Heritage added the following notice in the description for several of the rock poster listings a few days before the live auction:

"Note: We feel this poster is actually a Signature-auction item (live auctioneer, catalog placement) that we appraise at being generally worth over $1,000, as evidenced by results in the last couple of years here at Heritage. However, we're including this poster now in our Showcase auctions sometimes because we wanted to satisfy our consignors and offer our customers more than just three chances a year to win one. And of course the CGC grade, or no grading at all, could affect this placement as well. At any rate, good luck!"*

*One of the two lots that this notice was added to ended up at $512.50, while the other ended up at $1250. 

 

In terms of weird things people collect the concert posters for concerts one didn't attend rank up their pretty highly in my book (though not higher than graded ticket stubs of the same). But my question is how you have so many high grade 60s era concert posters like this? A CGC 10 poster from 1967??

[Lucky Baru]

On 9/24/2023 at 10:24 AM, cstojano said:

In terms of weird things people collect the concert posters for concerts one didn't attend rank up their pretty highly in my book (though not higher than graded ticket stubs of the same). But my question is how you have so many high grade 60s era concert posters like this? A CGC 10 poster from 1967??

I waiting for Ha.com to finally notice that magic apparatus, magic poster, and certain Houdini items have seen big leaps and jumps in value over the last 5 to 7 years.  

[tth2]

On 9/24/2023 at 10:22 AM, delekkerste said:

LOL, yeah, a Pat Benatar graded album sold for $61 ($12 hammer, $49 BP) as well.

Just out of curiosity, why would you have expected it to do better?  By that album, Benatar was already an established star and the initial run of her album would've been big (i.e., not scarce).  

[delekkerste]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:00 AM, tth2 said:

Just out of curiosity, why would you have expected it to do better?  By that album, Benatar was already an established star and the initial run of her album would've been big (i.e., not scarce).  

Yeah, but (a) still sealed with correct 1st pressing markings including the fan club postcard still present under the rear shrink and (b) third party graded at a cost of $50. Plus, I collect sealed albums and $61 for this record in that condition is on the low side for raw. I'm not saying it was crazy low, but, I would have expected it to fetch at least $80-100, if not low $100s.

 

That said, my point was less about pointing out how low these sales were, but, rather, the disparity between the hammer price and the final price for the above sales. Netting, say, $13 in a best case hammer-plus scenario, is just  for the consignor, and netting $1 for the Vangelis is just .  $49 minimum BP for music & entertainment items, many of which don't fetch OA-type prices, is just . 

Edited September 26, 2023 by delekkerste

[batman_fan]

Only losers collect vinyl, 8-tracks is where its at.

[tth2]

On 9/25/2023 at 8:12 PM, delekkerste said:

That said, my point was less about pointing out how low these sales were, but, rather, the disparity between the hammer price and the final price for the above sales. Netting, say, $13 in a best case hammer-plus scenario, is just  for the consignor, and netting $1 for the Vangelis is just .$49 minimum BP for music & entertainment items, many of which don't fetch OA-type prices, is just . 

It's probably just not worth it for Heritage to run auctions where they make less than $49/item. 

I don't know enough about this category of collectible to opine whether the prices for these collectibles are just too low to be worth grading and therefore for Heritage to carry, or whether it's these particular items that just aren't valuable enough to be worth slabbing and listing on Heritage.  I'm still always amazed by how many comics that aren't worth slabbing get slabbed.

[comix4fun]

On 9/24/2023 at 10:24 AM, cstojano said:

In terms of weird things people collect the concert posters for concerts one didn't attend rank up their pretty highly in my book (though not higher than graded ticket stubs of the same). But my question is how you have so many high grade 60s era concert posters like this? A CGC 10 poster from 1967??

This just in   .... Silver Age Art collectors born after 1968 have been seen taking cover all over the tri-state area to avoid the shrapnel from this post....

[cstojano]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:12 AM, delekkerste said:

Yeah, but (a) still sealed with correct 1st pressing markings including the fan club postcard still present under the rear shrink and (b) third party graded at a cost of $50. Plus, I collect sealed albums and $61 for this record in that condition is on the low side for raw. I'm not saying it was crazy low, but, I would have expected it to fetch at least $80-100, if not low $100s.

 

That said, my point was less about pointing out how low these sales were, but, rather, the disparity between the hammer price and the final price for the above sales. Netting, say, $13 in a best case hammer-plus scenario, is just  for the consignor, and netting $1 for the Vangelis is just .$49 minimum BP for music & entertainment items, many of which don't fetch OA-type prices, is just . 

Curious if this will kill the market for graded vinyl or not. Ditto for the graded RPG items that are now hitting the auction block. Early days for both before a market is established or...

The vitriol the RPG folks have against grading is pretty strong, I have to say. 

[delekkerste]

On 9/25/2023 at 11:44 AM, cstojano said:

The vitriol the RPG folks have against grading is pretty strong, I have to say. 

[delekkerste]

On 9/25/2023 at 11:44 AM, cstojano said:

Curious if this will kill the market for graded vinyl or not.

It'll probably just migrate to eBay or PWCC or other auction houses if Heritage sticks with the $49 minimum BP for music items. 

[cstojano]

On 9/25/2023 at 8:52 AM, delekkerste said:

Yes the community comes off as about 20 years behind in their understanding of colletibles 

Edited September 25, 2023 by cstojano

[comix4fun]

On 9/25/2023 at 10:44 AM, cstojano said:

Curious if this will kill the market for graded vinyl or not. Ditto for the graded RPG items that are now hitting the auction block. Early days for both before a market is established or...

The vitriol the RPG folks have against grading is pretty strong, I have to say. 

Swap out "Module" for "Comic" in those rants and it's 1999 all over again. It's almost literally word for word. 

 

[Bronty]

On 9/24/2023 at 11:24 AM, cstojano said:

In terms of weird things people collect the concert posters for concerts one didn't attend rank up their pretty highly in my book (though not higher than graded ticket stubs of the same). But my question is how you have so many high grade 60s era concert posters like this? A CGC 10 poster from 1967??

Overstock I presume.   Like somebody printed 5,000 but only used 4,000 and stuffed 1,000 in their garage.    Submitted a stack to cgc and said grade only the 9.8s and up.

--100% conjecture mind you.

[vodou]

On 9/25/2023 at 2:50 PM, Bronty said:

Overstock I presume. 

http://spiritgrooves.net/pdf/articles/Posters/Classic Posters Interview with Phil Cushway by Michael Erlewine.pdf

[Dr. Balls]

On 9/25/2023 at 6:12 AM, delekkerste said:

Yeah, but (a) still sealed with correct 1st pressing markings including the fan club postcard still present under the rear shrink and (b) third party graded at a cost of $50. Plus, I collect sealed albums and $61 for this record in that condition is on the low side for raw. I'm not saying it was crazy low, but, I would have expected it to fetch at least $80-100, if not low $100s.

 

That said, my point was less about pointing out how low these sales were, but, rather, the disparity between the hammer price and the final price for the above sales. Netting, say, $13 in a best case hammer-plus scenario, is just  for the consignor, and netting $1 for the Vangelis is just .  $49 minimum BP for music & entertainment items, many of which don't fetch OA-type prices, is just . 

It'll start catching on for sure. There's going to be a future auction with significant still-in-shrink albums from a collector that is going to grab some headlines. Someone is going to lob up a graded Beatles Butcher still in shrink and it's going to get attention. I didn't collect them, but I did have a few: my oldest one was Blue Swede (with Hooked on a Feeling on it) from 1974 (I couldn't give this one away  ), and a Beatles White Album still-in-shrink (but opened) from 1968 (profited mightily on this one). I think they were doing shrink in the mid-60's (?) so that's a lot of years and genres floating around out there with potential of discovery - we just haven't seen it yet.

Older landmark albums in shrink: really scarce. As you work into the 80's, the heavy metal genre sees a lot of value in sealed album resale. The 90's grunge is also a big market, since the proliferation of CDs pushed down vinyl production - that genre already has scarcity in open packaging, sealed ones are going to be insanely valued, I think. When I was looking for a Metallica Black Album (I paid $400+ for a VG+) there was a sealed one on auction that went over $1000. And this was Metallica's most popular album (30 million sales), so even with the downturn in vinyl production, there are tons of them out there - but precious few still sealed (because everyone wanted to listen to it). It's going to be a crazy market, I think.

[Bronty]

On 9/29/2023 at 11:54 AM, Dr. Balls said:

It'll start catching on for sure. There's going to be a future auction with significant still-in-shrink albums from a collector that is going to grab some headlines. Someone is going to lob up a graded Beatles Butcher still in shrink and it's going to get attention. I didn't collect them, but I did have a few: my oldest one was Blue Swede (with Hooked on a Feeling on it) from 1974 (I couldn't give this one away  ), and a Beatles White Album still-in-shrink (but opened) from 1968 (profited mightily on this one). I think they were doing shrink in the mid-60's (?) so that's a lot of years and genres floating around out there with potential of discovery - we just haven't seen it yet.

Older landmark albums in shrink: really scarce. As you work into the 80's, the heavy metal genre sees a lot of value in sealed album resale. The 90's grunge is also a big market, since the proliferation of CDs pushed down vinyl production - that genre already has scarcity in open packaging, sealed ones are going to be insanely valued, I think. When I was looking for a Metallica Black Album (I paid $400+ for a VG+) there was a sealed one on auction that went over $1000. And this was Metallica's most popular album (30 million sales), so even with the downturn in vinyl production, there are tons of them out there - but precious few still sealed (because everyone wanted to listen to it). It's going to be a crazy market, I think.

I'm sure it will help the market develop and yes some significant items will do well.    The headwinds, across all hobbies, are strong right now though.     

[Bronty]

I'm curious to see what happens with pulps too.   Nobody gave a crepe and now they are going for 10 and 20x on speculation of grading services to come?    Bubblelicious.    These people are chasing the money and not the items themselves.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Bronty