Curious about future values 2 2

[Captain Crash]

I'm looking at the market and it's extremely low in comparison to a couple years ago.  Obviously, things will go back up eventually, but who knows when and by how much.  My plan was to keep my collection into my 50's, may even closer to retirement age (in my 40's now).  But looking at the way books are dropping in value, I'm wondering how long it will take to get back to the sale prices we had a couple years ago... if ever!!  I'm just curious what people on here think based on your experience and market trends?  Do you think we'll ever get back to the insanely high sales prices we had just a couple years ago?  My gut tells me no, but I like to hear what fellow boardies have to say.

[Grendel72]

If history has shown us something, it will go up at some point for sure. Sooner rather than later. Once prices keep falling, sellers stop selling. Demand goes up. Prices as well. Comics are a limited pool. OA even less so. I guess the perfect storm of covid and cryptoboom was a once off for the sky high prices but who knows.

[PopKulture]

The demographics simply don’t support the trends over the past few decades. Sure, people will point to certain key books in higher grades as continued evidence that prices will just keep on increasing, but do you think there are enough babies in the maternity ward right now who will pay $200 when they’re in their 50’s for a Roy Rogers no. 56, a Richie Rich Gems no. 3, a Betty and Veronica no. 111, or even a Marvel Presents no. 6? We’re talking about kids who will never have read a comic book, let alone bought one off the stand. What else will prop up the hobby? Intellectual properties? Because they will have made the twentieth crappy Ant-Man movie by then??

For vanity’s sake, a mega-wealthy person will buy the Church Action 1 or Allentown Detective 27 for some ridiculous sum, but that’s not going to trickle down to 99.9% of the rest of the hobby. 

In the near term, comics will do fine, but someday they’re going the way of stamps and Hummels (even if you and I and everyone else here thinks they’re cooler).  

Edited February 1 by PopKulture

[godzilla43]

I think we are heading for maybe 2017? 2015? 2013? prices. All those people who came in to this hobby in COVID years have left. I mean those people who thought that all key comics were this rare commodity which you have to buy now.. People who stay around are collectors who still are buying some superhero stuff with somewhat inflated prices but prices are going down.. The landscape has also changed. Sure Marvel and DC are saying that new stuff is coming but I don't think any of those new properties will get new people to rush to buy comics. Right now it is almost like 2000s were people were buying Walking dead, The Boys, Invincible, Star Wars, Authority/Planetary, Spawn, video game related stuff.. and what is popular now in comics or TV shows are that stuff.

Edited February 1 by godzilla43

[Grendel72]

On 2/1/2024 at 1:48 PM, PopKulture said:

The demographics simply don’t support the trends over the past few decades. Sure, people will point to certain key books in higher grades as continued evidence that prices will just keep on increasing, but do you think there are enough babies in the maternity ward right now who will pay $200 when they’re in their 50’s for a Roy Rogers no. 56, a Richie Rich Gems no. 3, a Betty and Veronica no. 111, or even a Marvel Presents no. 6? We’re talking about kids who will never have read a comic book, let alone bought one off the stand. What else will prop up the hobby? Intellectual properties? Because they will have made the twentieth crappy Ant-Man movie by then??

For vanity’s sake, a mega-wealthy person will buy the Church Action 1 or Allentown Detective 27 for some ridiculous sum, but that’s not going to trickle down to 99.9% of the rest of the hobby. 

In the near term, comics will do fine, but someday they’re going the way of stamps and Hummels (even if you and I and everyone else here thinks they’re cooler).  

I started collecting funny books in the late 80s and seriously (sadly) collected keys only in the early to mid 2000s. A 6.0 blue label Bats 1 was around 20k. I thought these books had been around since forever so the prices had stabilised and I could purchase these books once I had saved enough. What a fool i was. I doubt a 6.0 blue label will ever be had for those prices. GA and SA keys (not the mega keys) will always have a market whether it be new fans or just investors. The OA market is even worse. No good Ditko spidey is gonna be had for 20k. This will most certainly not go the way as stamps. As a fan and collector, I so hope I'm wrong. And stamp collecting had a revival during covid mind you. 

[godzilla43]

On 2/1/2024 at 11:42 AM, Grendel72 said:

A 6.0 blue label Bats 1 was around 20k. I thought these books had been around since forever so the prices had stabilised and I could purchase these books once I had saved enough. What a fool i was. I doubt a 6.0 blue label will ever be had for those prices. 

I might be doom and gloom about the market but yeah no way that is happening. 

[Ryan.]

Sweet! Yet another Comics General thread celebrating the death of the hobby. 🥳

[Westy Steve]

On 1/31/2024 at 11:25 PM, Captain Crash said:

I'm looking at the market and it's extremely low in comparison to a couple years ago.  Obviously, things will go back up eventually, but who knows when and by how much.  My plan was to keep my collection into my 50's, may even closer to retirement age (in my 40's now).  But looking at the way books are dropping in value, I'm wondering how long it will take to get back to the sale prices we had a couple years ago... if ever!!  I'm just curious what people on here think based on your experience and market trends?  Do you think we'll ever get back to the insanely high sales prices we had just a couple years ago?  My gut tells me no, but I like to hear what fellow boardies have to say.

The key word in your question above is "experience".  Comic book prices have been moving up for more than 80 years, so anyone with experience is going to give you the same answer.  Historically, the only time it ever made sense to bet against the 80+ year trend was in the short term.  But you're asking about the long term.  Furthermore, at no time in the entire history of comic book collecting, was it a bad idea to buy on the dip.  So my own person logic is not to bet against the market.   

All that being said, my analysis is based on the classic books.  Not the flavor of the month in a 9.8 slab.  However, I've been around long enough to see even some of the "Hot dreck" go cold, and then get hot again a couple decades later as people feel nostalgic about the old dreck that they speculated on in their teen years.

[Westy Steve]

On 1/31/2024 at 11:48 PM, PopKulture said:

The demographics simply don’t support the trends over the past few decades. Sure, people will point to certain key books in higher grades as continued evidence that prices will just keep on increasing, but do you think there are enough babies in the maternity ward right now who will pay $200 when they’re in their 50’s for a Roy Rogers no. 56, a Richie Rich Gems no. 3, a Betty and Veronica no. 111, or even a Marvel Presents no. 6? We’re talking about kids who will never have read a comic book, let alone bought one off the stand. What else will prop up the hobby? Intellectual properties? Because they will have made the twentieth crappy Ant-Man movie by then??

For vanity’s sake, a mega-wealthy person will buy the Church Action 1 or Allentown Detective 27 for some ridiculous sum, but that’s not going to trickle down to 99.9% of the rest of the hobby. 

In the near term, comics will do fine, but someday they’re going the way of stamps and Hummels (even if you and I and everyone else here thinks they’re cooler).  

PopK,

First, this is a cool book and it's uncommon...I wouldn't mind picking this up for my collection:  Archie's Girls Betty and Veronica #111 FN- 5.5 1965 | eBay

I'm not meaning to be argumentative, but I'd like to give a counterpoint.  I collect coins.  You want to talk about upside down demographics?...coin collecting is your baby.  I remember going to coin shows in my late 40's and realizing I was the youngest there.  And yet, that hobby continued chugging along.  Do you know why?  Because like many of the collectors here, they continue to collect until their death.  Also...Unlike coins, where a low mintage coin was minted in the 10's of thousands, or 100's of thousands, many surviving desirable comics can number in the dozens or at least less than 100.  The reality is that there are just so few of the really good books out there for them to drop significantly in value until we're so old that we don't know what day it is or who our nurse is.

I have complete faith in the demographics (or lack thereof), because I read the 20 and 25 cent books that I found back in the day, but today I'm collecting 10 cent books like Betty and Veronica that I never ran across in my youth.  Realistically, almost nobody here had a chance to buy my Superman #5 in low, low, grade, off the stands, but they wouldn't kick it out of bed if the price was right because we all start out collecting the (more common) books we had as kids, and as our tastes become more refined, we start chasing things that we weren't even exposed to in our youth.  And we'll continue to do it until death.

 

 

Edited February 1 by Westy Steve

[rsouxlja7]

edit

Edited February 5 by rsouxlja7

[Axelrod]

Here's the long term trend:

Most comics:  

 

Some comics:  

[Bookery]

On 2/1/2024 at 9:20 AM, Westy Steve said:

The key word in your question above is "experience".  Comic book prices have been moving up for more than 80 years, so anyone with experience is going to give you the same answer.  Historically, the only time it ever made sense to bet against the 80+ year trend was in the short term.  But you're asking about the long term.  Furthermore, at no time in the entire history of comic book collecting, was it a bad idea to buy on the dip.  So my own person logic is not to bet against the market.   

All that being said, my analysis is based on the classic books.  Not the flavor of the month in a 9.8 slab.  However, I've been around long enough to see even some of the "Hot dreck" go cold, and then get hot again a couple decades later as people feel nostalgic about the old dreck that they speculated on in their teen years.

To be fair, 80 years is a bit of an exaggeration.  That would mean people began paying collector premiums for comics as early as WW2!  I don't think that's true.  The earliest ads I've seen promoting back-issues at premiums to cover price is about the mid-1960s.  And there were the beginnings of small gatherings of collectors at the time, though I suspect more was traded than was actually bought outright.  An actual comic book "market" probably got established with the Overstreet Guide in the early '70s, however.  But in those first few years, the Overstreet price increases (which were fairly small year-to-year) were likely more a reflection of the Guide pushing a market than necessarily reflecting it.  Regardless, it soon began to take off on its own.  So an honest nationwide comic book market is really only about 50 years old... meaning it didn't really get underway until someone like me was in high school.  That's not a very long time. 

Comics are essentially still a young market.  Rare books have been bought and sold for 500 years.  Coins have been collected for centuries.  Stamps have been collectible at least since the 1800s.  And those didn't have movies and TV shows hyping them.  Unlike fine art, or Ming Dynasty vases, or Faberge eggs, "pop culture" seems to always be ephemeral.  It can be "hot" for as short as a few years (Beanie Babies) or last several decades before beginning to peter out (Tarzan ephemera, much of Disneyana, Coca-Cola merchandise, Big Little Books, Bettie Page, etc.).  A few "key" or especially rare items are always exceptions, of course, and nothing dies out completely (there are still collectors for "dime novels" -- though both of them are getting up there in years ).  But by definition "pop culture" is something that is special to a specific generation, or two, or three.  And then, eventually, something else becomes "pop". 

[Cman429]

Comics became hot because of the movies. The movies are dying off so the pop culture cache of comics will go right along with it. Eventually we’ll be right back to the same small group of nerds who loved comics in the 70s/80s/90s before they became “cool.” Except instead of being young professionals with free $$$ to spend, they’ll be middle age geezers with kids that need college or a wife who wants a dishwasher or 257 more important things than spending $2k on the first appearance of Paste Pot Pete. 

[Westy Steve]

On 2/1/2024 at 1:27 PM, Bookery said:

To be fair, 80 years is a bit of an exaggeration.  That would mean people began paying collector premiums for comics as early as WW2!  I don't think that's true.  The earliest ads I've seen promoting back-issues at premiums to cover price is about the mid-1960s.  . 

You could be right, but I'll go out on a limb here and say that the kid who started reading Action Comics at issue #25 might have been willing to pay a slight premium to get the first issue to read Superman's origin...especially when it wasn't available in any other format (except a recap). Or perhaps, they wanted to put together a set of every Batman comic.  I think premiums existed...they were just very small.  

[Westy Steve]

On 2/1/2024 at 1:34 PM, Cman429 said:

Comics became hot because of the movies. The movies are dying off so the pop culture cache of comics will go right along with it. Eventually we’ll be right back to the same small group of nerds who loved comics in the 70s/80s/90s before they became “cool.” Except instead of being young professionals with free $$$ to spend, they’ll be middle age geezers with kids that need college or a wife who wants a dishwasher or 257 more important things than spending $2k on the first appearance of Paste Pot Pete. 

OK, I know I'm "overcommenting"...sorry.  Anyway, I'm not tenaciously married to my belief/position.  But as for me, I was definitely the young professional with lots of money to spend on comics...(had every silver age marvel key).  Then for the last two decades, I've been the middle-aged guy with kids who had to slow down my collecting.  But in the meantime, I've been paying off my house, I bought my obligatory classic car, I've invested into my retirement, and I've bought every type of appliance,, tool  or doodad for my house that a family/person could need.  In a few years, my kids will be out of college, and I'll once again find myself with more money to spend and a secure retirement.  So for me personally, since I will already have most everything a reasonable person wants/needs, I'll probably ramp up my spending.  Of course, I'll need to do that to buy back the stuff I sold off to all you lucky bachelors.

Edited February 1 by Westy Steve

[Phicks]

Key issues like Action #1 will continue to climb in value, but I don’t think the longterm future looks good for non key issues like Action 101, 201, etc.., because there just is not a crowd of young people anymore interested in reading comics.  The last time we saw actual kids buying comics was the 80s, when the industry had big hits with Transformers, GI Joe, X-Men, New Teen Titans, etc.  I think values for common issues like Action101 will continue to gradually increase until the kids who were buying and reading comics in the 80s hit 65 and sell off their collections.  
 

So let’s say we are talking about kids who were born around 1970 to 1975.  So when they turn 65 in the interval from 2035 to 2040, I think we will see values of common back issues plummet in value, just like 1950s Westerns have already experienced.

i intend to sell my collection before then!