How we estimate the average population of DC books of the WW2 era 2 2

[BA773]

I'm really interested about this question, for sure some books have probably 10× more copy than some other and we cannot really get an idea of it... but do we have an idea of an average quantity per issue for DC stuff published between 39-45? 

Edited June 12 by BA773

[vheflin]

Not sure if you want original print runs or surviving copies.

For surviving copy count, I have read estimates on these here boards of 2x-3x census total.

[BA773]

On 6/12/2024 at 2:20 PM, vheflin said:

Not sure if you want original print runs or surviving copies.

For surviving copy count, I have read estimates on these here boards of 2x-3x census total.

No I cannot trust it  to get an idea I took randomly the issues 5,6 and 8 of Green Lantern, they are all between 27 to 37 copies, so you would say that less than 100 copies of these books are still existing?! 

Edited June 12 by BA773

[shadroch]

On 6/12/2024 at 5:20 AM, vheflin said:

Not sure if you want original print runs or surviving copies.

For surviving copy count, I have read estimates on these here boards of 2x-3x census total.

That would mean that between a third and half of all GA DC books are slabbed.  That's an absurd assumption.  It might hold for super-key books like Action #1, but to think half the existing copies of Action #35 have been slabbed is wrong.

Edited June 12 by shadroch

[BA773]

Here they re speaking about a Gerber Guide, could be interesting to buy it, some of you have it?

 

https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/5470-how-many-exist/

[BA773]

On 6/12/2024 at 3:17 PM, shadroch said:

That would mean that between a third and half of all GA DC books are slabbed.  That's an absurd assumption.  It might hold for super-key books like Action #1, but to think half the existing copies of Action #35 have been slabbed is wrong.

Think so, random issues are raw all around...

[Dave2739]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:22 AM, BA773 said:

Here they re speaking about a Gerber Guide, could be interesting to buy it, some of you have it?

 

https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/5470-how-many-exist/

Yes. These. There are two volumes of Golden Age and two more volumes of just Marvel.

https://www.amazon.com/Photo-Journal-Guide-Comic-Books-Vol/dp/0962332801

Edited June 12 by Dave2739

[shadroch]

On 6/12/2024 at 6:32 AM, Dave2739 said:

Yes. These. There are two volumes of Golden Age and two more volumes of just Marvel.

https://www.amazon.com/Photo-Journal-Guide-Comic-Books-Vol/dp/0962332801

Has the information in those books aged well?  

[Dave2739]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:40 AM, shadroch said:

Has the information in those books aged well?  

Some of the statistics have not, but it's still a cool photo reference. I like them, but yes, they're a bit of a relic in 2024.

[shadroch]

The photos are outstanding. I used to look through mine and pick out the books I'd never be able to buy. I was wondering about his scarcity levels-if those held up.

[Dave2739]

On 6/12/2024 at 10:36 AM, shadroch said:

The photos are outstanding. I used to look through mine and pick out the books I'd never be able to buy. I was wondering about his scarcity levels-if those held up.

I'm not an expert on Golden Age statistics, but I know that at least some of those scarcity levels have been proven inaccurate. 

[BA773]

On 6/12/2024 at 3:40 PM, shadroch said:

Has the information in those books aged well?  

 at least you sure that is not more books than in 2003... the contrary will be be astouding 

[electricprune]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:17 AM, shadroch said:

That would mean that between a third and half of all GA DC books are slabbed.  That's an absurd assumption.  It might hold for super-key books like Action #1, but to think half the existing copies of Action #35 have been slabbed is wrong.

Shad,

When you had your store, did you ever have an instance when you had a certain amount of an issue ordered with several others, but that issue wasn’t filled and you were never really told why? All the others on the order were filled.

It seems that out of all of the comics ever printed, there had to be an instance where a certain issue just had far fewer copies actually make it to news stands or store than the issues before and after it. For instance, the printer is running Strange Adventures 71 and something happens to the machines. When they get it fixed, they call DC and say do you want us to finish the run, or start printing Superman 147? DC says they sell many more copies of Superman and to just start running that issue. (I’m throwing these issues out randomly.) So, really unbeknownst to almost everyone, SA 71 was actually pretty rare to start. Someone could destroy a pallet with a forklift, or a delivery truck could have crashed and burned. It seems like something like that would have to make a few random issues much scarcer than others.

@MrBedrock

Richard, have you ever seen something like this happen?

Any other current or former store owners, please chime in too. Thanks.

[revat]

If you are or know any true comic historians or academics, you could probably set up a real research project looking into the DC Archives of paper records to find out, or the records of the publisher(s), although I think those are less likely to still be around.  They may not have original records anymore, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're on microfilm somewhere.

But this might only get you print numbers, maybe not returns, and even less information on how many existing copies remain.

I don't think there's really any way to know, or any value to having an unprovable estimate.

[JollyComics]

@Moondog

Gary is a comic book historian.  Hopefully, he can answer here.

[Upgrayedd2]

On 6/12/2024 at 10:32 PM, Dave2739 said:

Yes. These. There are two volumes of Golden Age and two more volumes of just Marvel.

https://www.amazon.com/Photo-Journal-Guide-Comic-Books-Vol/dp/0962332801

I second these books as an option for providing a data point in the (recent-ish) past. A few days ago, one of the YouTube channels reference these books during a discussion of "rare comics." The conclusion they came to after comparing several comics was that the overall number of the rare comics increased. They recommended increasing the measuring bar to reflect the increase in the census.

[shadroch]

On 6/12/2024 at 4:44 PM, electricprune said:

Shad,

When you had your store, did you ever have an instance when you had a certain amount of an issue ordered with several others, but that issue wasn’t filled and you were never really told why? All the others on the order were filled.

It seems that out of all of the comics ever printed, there had to be an instance where a certain issue just had far fewer copies actually make it to news stands or store than the issues before and after it. For instance, the printer is running Strange Adventures 71 and something happens to the machines. When they get it fixed, they call DC and say do you want us to finish the run, or start printing Superman 147? DC says they sell many more copies of Superman and to just start running that issue. (I’m throwing these issues out randomly.) So, really unbeknownst to almost everyone, SA 71 was actually pretty rare to start. Someone could destroy a pallet with a forklift, or a delivery truck could have crashed and burned. It seems like something like that would have to make a few random issues much scarcer than others.

@MrBedrock

Richard, have you ever seen something like this happen?

Any other current or former store owners, please chime in too. Thanks.

I can't think of anything like that, but distribution in the 80s differed greatly from the Golden Age.

I was thinking of one fiasco, but I don't think it fits your bill. 

At the height of the distribution Wars, my main distributor was Crown. They were an upstart company and I liked the owners from meeting them at various shows.  They had about 40% of the Queens/Long Island distro. Comics Unlimited had most of the rest, with Heroes World and Glenwood having tiny slivers.   

For some reason, Crown didn't get any copies of Superman #2, which had been heavily ordered.  They promised they'd have them in a week, but comic fans wouldn't wait.  I got a few copies from friends that used Comics Unlimited but most of my customers went elsewhere to find a copy.  Combine a hot book and 40% of the shops not getting theirs, and you have an instant collector's item. Some shops that had copies were asking for $5 for them, but the next week, I had an excess as many of my regulars shopped elsewhere. Not only had Crown screwed us out of a hot book, but it pushed them into our competitor's stores.  Crown ended up making the book returnable and they ate thousands of copies. I believe it only affected Crown, so really Long Island went through the crisis.

[Hepcat]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:17 AM, shadroch said:

That would mean that between a third and half of all GA DC books are slabbed.  That's an absurd assumption.  It might hold for super-key books like Action #1, but to think half the existing copies of Action #35 have been slabbed is wrong.

I agree. I believe far more "unknown" raw comics exist in collections than most members on this CGC board think.

 

[Hepcat]

On 6/12/2024 at 10:46 AM, Dave2739 said:

I'm not an expert on Golden Age statistics, but I know that at least some of those scarcity levels have been proven inaccurate. 

If they were proven inaccurate, that would mean more copies of those comics have been found than was in his estimate.

 

[10centcomics]

On 6/12/2024 at 9:14 AM, BA773 said:

No I cannot trust it  to get an idea I took randomly the issues 5,6 and 8 of Green Lantern, they are all between 27 to 37 copies, so you would say that less than 100 copies of these books are still existing?! 

Yes. GA comics are very scarce relative to SA. We won't ever know the exact number of surviving copies but as others have pointed out, you can take a multiple of the census count. For megakeys, you can use a lower multiple like 2x. For non-keys, you can use higher multiple. You can also get a sense of the scarcity of the book by seeing how often it comes up for sale at major auction houses.