Comic Values going foward, be a Nostrodaumus

[AussieRuss]

Hello Everyone.

 

I have been involved in a few threads discussing what will become of comic prices in the near & far off future.

 

I would like to give you all the chance to give your opinion on what you think may happen this year, Next year & in 5,10,25 years time.

 

Each person has an individual view on this & no opinion is right or wrong but if the boards are around in the years to come we will have a historical snapshot of what we thought might happen today.

 

I have given each person two votes to cast as the poll covers a few areas. Pleas use your votes in the areas that most appeal to you.

 

It would be greatly appreciated if you only voted in this poll one time to preserve its accuracy.

 

This poll will hopefully give us a chance to look back in a few years & see how close to the mark we actually came.

 

I have chosen to close this poll mid year so as to ensure that peoples opinions are only taken up to mid 2006.

 

Thanks for your time & effort.

 

Regards,

 

Russ...

[Scheradon]

I think the trend will be a slow fall, followed by a flatening out, then a slow rise. That's basically how I voted. As far as Pedigreed books...I have some and really don't get the significance. To me a MINT book is a MINT book no matter who had it or where it came from. I've always just felt Pedigrees were around to sort of pay homage to a large 'very nice' collection from a single place or owner, but not the their NM is better than anyone elses. The only Pedigree I could see garnering more money is the Nic Cage collection because some people may pay a little more to own a piece of that due to his star power.

[Aman619]

Im sure in creating your poll you realized it was too limiting given the myriad variables. I started to vote but couldnt. But heres my prediction: prices will level out soon. But mid SA price keys will hold on (low $1000s); superkeys will soften; HG commons will soften. Modern HG will go downward...

wait wait, too complicated. Ive got to answer for all kinds of grades.... in each of all 4 Ages, and then differentiate between keys, superkeys and commons in each Age.... too many variables.!!!

 

basically things will muddle on: some record prices, some softening, but soon enough it will all soften... then after a time, will heat up again.

 

something lik ethat.... maybe

[AussieRuss]

Hello Aman619.

 

Thanks for the reply. (ROFL)

 

I know that the reply options a restrictive but as you mentioned the possibility's are endless.

 

Sometimes it becomes unfortunate as we turn from children to adults that a lot of questions can no longer be answered by a simple Yes or No answer.

 

This is one of those situations.

 

I appreciate the time that you or anyone else take to have a go at these questions as the more input we give to it, the more we can review about how we thought in time to come.

 

Regards,

Russ...

[the blob]

Thor 339 will be a $20 book by November 3rd.

[Norrin_Radd]

Thor 339 will be a $20 book by November 3rd.

 

In any condition?

[the blob]

In the condition I have 50 of them in, from VF to NM. Raw.

[Timulty]

Okay, Gold Age comics will rise not in big chunks but better than inflation. SA and BA will deflate some for the next 5 years and then level off for about 10 years. Then SA will see a resurgence. Provided, of course, if the hobby doesn't destroy itself in the meantime.

[mattbird_home]

Prediction: In 25 years this hobby will barely exist, as we'll all be hitting or have surpassed retirement age and there will be no new readers to replace us. Prices on all but absolute key books will be very low to nil.

[Norrin_Radd]

Prediction: In 25 years this hobby will barely exist, as we'll all be hitting or have surpassed retirement age and there will be no new readers to replace us. Prices on all but absolute key books will be very low to nil.

 

I didn't realize you were a member here. Welcome to the Boards, Grim Reaper!

 

 

 

Comics are a great form of creative storytelling. Superheroes will still exist in 25 years and so will comics.

[jmg3637]

I certainly am concerned about the long term situation for comics. In 25 years I will be 75 and had better be well into a sell off phase.

 

Will Chuck still be flying all over the country to buy overstock and pass on his great deals to his customers?

 

Will there still be new books then? what will they cost $15 a book

 

guess when I really think about it I should begin the sell off sooner

[AussieRuss]

10 weeks left to give your thought on the future.

 

Regards,

Russ

[Chi Bamm]

Im sure in creating your poll you realized it was too limiting given the myriad variables. I started to vote but couldnt. But heres my prediction: prices will level out soon. But mid SA price keys will hold on (low $1000s); superkeys will soften; HG commons will soften. Modern HG will go downward...

wait wait, too complicated. Ive got to answer for all kinds of grades.... in each of all 4 Ages, and then differentiate between keys, superkeys and commons in each Age.... too many variables.!!!

 

basically things will muddle on: some record prices, some softening, but soon enough it will all soften... then after a time, will heat up again.

 

something lik ethat.... maybe

 

 

 

Only if you collect comics will you understand that. And of course we all do understand.

[Comicdey]

I posted my opinions quite a while ago, and now don't remember how I voted.

[Ivanko]

1. I believe that if Hollywood keeps putting out GOOD comic based movies and video games, it will keep interest in comics alive.

 

2. I believe that GA will steadily climb with the highest gains in high grades.

 

3. I believe that SA keys will climb until a plateau is reached, then flatten for a while, then jump again.

 

4. I believe Few moderns will be worth much due to being so common (with the exception of all those 1:50 variants--HA!)

 

I believe that as long as there is something electronic (movies) or computerized (video games) that can draw youth towards comics, either out of curiosity or true enjoyment, the hobby will be fine. If not, our precious bundles of paper will be great fire starters.

[pkveronese]

1. I believe that if Hollywood keeps putting out GOOD comic based movies and video games, it will keep interest in comics alive.

 

2. I believe that GA will steadily climb with the highest gains in high grades.

 

3. I believe that SA keys will climb until a plateau is reached, then flatten for a while, then jump again.

 

4. I believe Few moderns will be worth much due to being so common (with the exception of all those 1:50 variants--HA!)

 

I believe that as long as there is something electronic (movies) or computerized (video games) that can draw youth towards comics, either out of curiosity or true enjoyment, the hobby will be fine. If not, our precious bundles of paper will be great fire starters.

 

I have to disagree with you here on point #4. If you look at the trends on print runs in the past 6-7 years, they have been quite low (I believe an issue of X-men had a 90K print run in the past 6 months). I really think modern issues from the current period we are in will be seen in a completely different light than than the "Overprinting 80s", with stuff from this time period being quite hard to find in comparison to some of the other modern periods. Look at issues like Deadpool #54-55, Uncanny #377, X-men #97, Amazing Spider-man vol. #2 $19, Bishop #16 (and trust me, I could name about 15 more books easily) - these are all issues that don't have a major first appearance, etc., but they routinely go for $15-20 on eBay. Once more people try to finish runs in the future from this time period, I really think we'll see this stuff command a premium and be in relatively high demand.

[rjpb]

Look at the pulp market for a few clues as to where the comic market might be in 25 years. It is an inexact comparison for sure, but still useful. I seriously doubt there are more than a dozen active pulp collectors alive today who were buying them off the newstand in their heyday (the 1930s), yet there is still an interest in various genres and characters, some of which have been largely dormant for 60 years or more. Still, I don't think anyone will be paying $100,000+ for a pulp anytime soon, and by and large they are less expensive than Golden Age comics to collect. Even in high grade there aren't that many pulps that would command $1500 or more.

 

Some characters have become so ingrained in the popular culture, that even if comic books in their current format ceased to be published, I find it inconcievable that they will be no more than historical pop culture curiosities.

 

One can also look at the way the back issue market has changed in the last 30-40 years. When I was first collecting in the early 70s, back issues in decent shape (at that time VF or better), almost always had a premium over current cover price attached to them, as long as they were superhero books, even if they were only a few months old. First issues only a few years old sold for a minimum of 10X their cover price if they were VF or better. Today the vast bulk of comics published in the last 20 years routinely sell for less than the cover price of a new comic, even in NM. While there will always be exceptions, the idea that comic books automatically gain value with age is long gone from the casual collector's conciousness, and this is likely to affect attitudes towards older material as well. When I was young it was just assumed that all comics increased in value (according to Overstreet) from year to year. Who believes that now?

 

My gut feeling is that comics, even HG keys, are not a wise long term investment if one is looking for anywhere near the same returns the last 25 years have given, but will be far from universally worthless a quarter century from now either.

[the blob]

I think the "they always go up" ended in about 1976 or 1977 with direct distribution and the # of bona fide comic shops jumping, many extra copies being ordered, etc. As for a #1 going for 10X cover, maybe with some, but certainly not for many others. Particularly the #1 issue explosion from marvel circa 1976-1977 or so. How long was it before John Carter 1, Tarzan 1, Shogun Warriors 1, Eternals 1, etc. found their way out of the quarter box?

 

I know that when I first started bin hunting in the 70s when comic cover prices were 35 cents, then 40, then 50 and 60 by the early 80s, my LCSes usually had a well stocked bin with 4/$1 or 4/$1 books with lots of new stuff and stuff from the last few years in VF or better. In fact, a lot of my mid and late 70s Amazing Spidermans came out of those bins.

[rjpb]

Yeah, 1976 was just after I stopped collecting the first time, but I'm not surprised that by then hoarding of #1 issues had become so common place that their "value" was suspect. By then the "Shazam" and "Howard the Duck" hype frenzy had already burned a few people.

 

Quarter boxes have obviously ben around for along time, and while some recent back issues, especially of over-ordered and discontinued titles often find their way into them, as recently as the early 90s, it seemed routine for comic shops to add a little extra to the cover price for most of their recent back issue stock (at least in L.A.), whereas, "hot" titles aside, that rarely seems the case today. Conventions were (are?) a different story, as there always seemed to be a few tables where somebody ( often a failing comic shop) was blowing out back issues at bargain prices.

 

As for the "they always go up" mentality - it is long gone for most sectors of the market - but still seems to exist with some when High Grade Silver and Gold are discussed.

[the blob]

"as recently as the early 90s, it seemed routine for comic shops to add a little extra to the cover price for most of their recent back issue stock (at least in L.A.)"

 

you're pointing to a 2-3 year period of rampant speculation in new books that made absolutely no sense.

 

Also, when new comics were less than $1 into the late 80s, it made it fairly easy to bag and board them and make them $1 as back issues. Of course, how many sold at above cover price? Not too many. Those books wound up tossed into the quarter bins in 1994/95/96 when the market softened, that sure was the case at my LCS where his back issue stock of modern and copper books marked at above cover, from $1-$4 or so, almost all found their way into the quarter box other than some mutant titles, spideys, batmans, etc...stuff he would try to get a buck for. He just got sick of them taking up space and gathering dust and selling $20 of them a month at the marked prices. He preferred getting a few hundred bucks a month out of his quarter box. And given that he only paid 3-5 cents each for new books when people brought them in to sell (which there was plenty of in the 90s!), he still made money on 25 cent books. It wasn't the mid-90s collapse in new issue sales that put him out of business, it was ebay in the late 90s really killing his sales of vintage stuff and back issues (even though he was often cheaper than ebay, a lot of his customers got excited about the novelty of bidding and paid more for the same stuff on ebay)