GL 76 -- HG Prices Still Going Up

[mosconi]

My understanding is there was little DC, mostly Marvel, some issues being thousands of copies, some with none, like Conan 3 and Silver surfer 4. When the semi-trucks left the holding area, one of the trucks went "stray" and Chuck never got them - back in the mid 1990s, i talked with the fellow who ended up with that semi-truck load and that story will be in the history book i have been working on

 

Thanks for the info Bob. I've always believed that these combination of factors have resulted in a truer lower availability of ultra high grade DC books from this era (including the GL #76 up until the drug issues publicity took over). Looking at CGC census #s and your input, this kind of confirms my thoughts. I remember being at the 1985 SD con when Chuck first put forth his MH 2 collection and seeing boxes of Hulk 181's and all kinds of Marvel's everywhere. Don't recall him ever putting up any DC's for sale from this pre-1972 time period (I know they weren't as popular Marvel's but there were none for sale from the MH 2 collection as I recall). Can't wait to read about your story

[BLBcomics-migration]

It is so totally obvious that 1970s DC comics are in much shorter supply than Marvel comic books. Marvel ruled the roost. Not just high grade, but DC is general this time span are way lower in sales and also being seriously saved back then.

 

By the time the Direct Market began making its mark in the marketplace, the stats were that Marvel comprised 80% of the DM, DC was 15% and every body else fought for the 5% crumbs

 

This is late 70s thru the mid 1980s

 

By 1985 when Chuck rented that San Diego side room with his MH2 scenario, Byrne Xmen was still #1, Spiderman was #2, Marvels in general were being hunted down and stored up way more than DC, so, yes, you are absolutely correct in your musings. It has always been so since the late 1960s

[Aman619]

Maybe so. but - - we are basing a lot of this scarcity business on the CGC census after only 5 years. I agree it shows certain trends. But, we have to remember the general consensus here (and elsewhere) that DCs are always less in demand than Marvels (especially these past 5 years of Marvel madness) and, that many many DC collectors are NOT sellers yet. Their copies are still sitting in prretty mylars, not slabs, and will stay there for awhile yet.

 

As an indication, I read all this and get all excited to buy some nice slabbed copies thinking YES they are pretty scarce! But I looked at my boxes and I have accumulated a pile of GLs between 76 and 89 about a 10" deep in mylars. (3, 4 and 5 of each issue) And a bunch of them are pretty sweet copies I bought over the years. Sooo, multiply me times a couple dozen other collectors sitting on 9.2s to potential 9.6s??) and well, the census would grow to Spidey (or Avengers) numbers I think. Keep in mind that while Adams books have always been in demand, they were $30 - $75 books until just lately, right?

 

Just a thought.

 

So while there are far less 76s than 86s, there were still plenty of 76s put aside by careful collectors. (Not me. Mine were read to spoon...but some of the ones I picked up were cherry sweet (for once!)

[BLBcomics-migration]

I personally think the CGC census an damn near ANY comic book is a joke

 

So is the Gerber Scarcity Ratio Index or the "missing" cover blanks of which much brou-ha-ha has been talked about over the last 20 years

 

Think about it re Gerber's SRI. There is a list of 260 thereabouts collectors listed as having supplied covers for his project.

 

The list is weighted so i was told by Ernie on how many covers he used of that collector

 

I am an inch or so down from the top of the first column

 

Is 260 enough of a sampler to dictate what is rare, scarce, etc?

 

Me, i do no think so

 

There are many thousands of collections out there which will never be slabbed, at least not until the collector dies

 

My favorite Gerber SRI gaffe is Amazing Spiderman #1 being listed as a "4"

[Nostalgic Attic]

Okay, one sale does not exactly make a market, but I just saw this GL 76 CGC 9.0 (o/w pages, no less) on ebay go for $815.

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/GREEN-LANTERN-76-NEA...1QQcmdZViewItem

 

Then there's the CGC 9.0 listed on Comiclink for $1k (I think it's jimjum's copy he doesn't want to sell) but has a bid of $850.

 

Now if somebody cracks $900, I'm going to sell my copy (even though I love GL 76s) b/c I have a CGC 9.0 WP -- I mean, for a 9.0? Almost $1k?

 

Seems high -- is this book becoming that hot? And I know it's hot, but is this being recognized as the beginning of the Bronze Age?

 

Check out this "immaculate" copy on ebay

 

GL 76 9.8

 

[Aman619]

look closely. Danny's getting ready for feedback disclosure: its listed as APP 9.8!

 

Old. New Tricks!

[Aman619]

I personally think the CGC census an damn near ANY comic book is a joke

 

well, Joke is too strong. Obviously the Census must be handled with care. It only represents those comics that have been slabbed so far. NOT as some would believe or try to convince, the entire existing supply.

 

But taken as a snapshot to extrapolate from, it DOES give a pretty good insight as to what's out there. Just factor in common sense and knowleadge of OTHER copies sitting raw and you can make educated guesses as to where it will all end.

 

For instance Bob: there is 1 9.6 AF15 and 5 9.4s so far. How many more do YOU think are out there (absent manipulation that is.) I dont think there are too many. Maybe another 9.6 and probably only 2-3 more 9.4s... if that. If you agree, is 1 and 5 (the current and holding for (2 years now) counts a "joke"?

 

If you only meant that many Bronze Age and late Silver Age counts in the census are a joke, then Id agree with. But, again, using common sense and seeing how many are ALREADY slabbed, one can deduce that the numbers will continue to grow. Similarly, many GA common mid-run books curently show a Best copy as a 6.0. Certainly this meansn that the HG Pedigree copies are sitting pretty in mylars, so no reason to jump at them.

 

See how easy it is?

[BLBcomics-migration]

I guess i was not thinking along the lines of "highest graded" as the concept does not run my collecting wagon. Nor does that concept run the wagons of most collectors i know. Decent VG+ to Fine+ is perfectly OK.

 

As a general rule, i think most people wrapped up in 9.4 and up concepts are more interested in speculation than collecting. Fine to Fine+ are great copies, great eye appeal, etc

 

I was thinking about, as you indicate, total census counts of numbers of copies still extant - and in that scenario, there are ga-zliions more copies out there that skew any Scarcity Ratio Index

 

I see so many auction house descriptions which tout the "Best Copy" slabbed concept, which does imply best copy in existence to many novice people. And i have no doubt that most any high grade of any book of note does get slabbed as it comes into the circulating pool of books in the marketplace.

 

So, while i have absolutely nothing against books being 3rd party inspected and graded, the census count as a determining factor of scarcity will always remain a joke to be bandied about at the bar - there are too many collectors out there i know who do not get anything slabbed, and when they buy slabbed books, they break the seal and look inside, life beyond the cover as it were

 

So, in case it is not clear, we seem to be in perfect alignment agreement

[Foolkiller]

I guess i was not thinking along the lines of "highest graded" as the concept does not run my collecting wagon. Nor does that concept run the wagons of most collectors i know. Decent VG+ to Fine+ is perfectly OK.

 

As a general rule, i think most people wrapped up in 9.4 and up concepts are more interested in speculation than collecting. Fine to Fine+ are great copies, great eye appeal, etc

 

I was thinking about, as you indicate, total census counts of numbers of copies still extant - and in that scenario, there are ga-zliions more copies out there that skew any Scarcity Ratio Index

 

I see so many auction house descriptions which tout the "Best Copy" slabbed concept, which does imply best copy in existence to many novice people. And i have no doubt that most any high grade of any book of note does get slabbed as it comes into the circulating pool of books in the marketplace.

 

So, while i have absolutely nothing against books being 3rd party inspected and graded, the census count as a determining factor of scarcity will always remain a joke to be bandied about at the bar - there are too many collectors out there i know who do not get anything slabbed, and when they buy slabbed books, they break the seal and look inside, life beyond the cover as it were

 

So, in case it is not clear, we seem to be in perfect alignment agreement

 

I agree with your take generally Bob, but disagree with the notion that people interested in 9.4 and up are only interested in speculation etc. Some people get very wrapped up in the perfection from that perspective... F/F+ look nice, but I prefer 9.0/9.2 every day of the week.

[joe_collector]

I would definitely watch out, as this opinion is far from a popular one on here. I, and many others, agree with you, but have learned not to awaken the sleeping CGC speculators and invite their board-sanctioned wrath.

 

I can only assume the break from reality necessary for the "most of HG X is already slabbed" is due to the huge boxes of ultra-expensive CGC books they've got stacked up.

 

I guess i was not thinking along the lines of "highest graded" as the concept does not run my collecting wagon. Nor does that concept run the wagons of most collectors i know. Decent VG+ to Fine+ is perfectly OK.

 

As a general rule, i think most people wrapped up in 9.4 and up concepts are more interested in speculation than collecting. Fine to Fine+ are great copies, great eye appeal, etc

 

I was thinking about, as you indicate, total census counts of numbers of copies still extant - and in that scenario, there are ga-zliions more copies out there that skew any Scarcity Ratio Index

 

I see so many auction house descriptions which tout the "Best Copy" slabbed concept, which does imply best copy in existence to many novice people. And i have no doubt that most any high grade of any book of note does get slabbed as it comes into the circulating pool of books in the marketplace.

 

So, while i have absolutely nothing against books being 3rd party inspected and graded, the census count as a determining factor of scarcity will always remain a joke to be bandied about at the bar - there are too many collectors out there i know who do not get anything slabbed, and when they buy slabbed books, they break the seal and look inside, life beyond the cover as it were

 

So, in case it is not clear, we seem to be in perfect alignment agreement

[BLBcomics-migration]

I agree with your take generally Bob, but disagree with the notion that people interested in 9.4 and up are only interested in speculation etc. Some people get very wrapped up in the perfection from that perspective... F/F+ look nice, but I prefer 9.0/9.2 every day of the week.

 

So do i - one would always want the best copy one can get generally

 

But once the comic book is slabbed, to me it takes on the aspect of commodity - and i do a lot of research inside the books, so having a near perfect to perfect copy is not something i personally want to have other than to sell it.

 

I did not mean to write that 9.4 & up people are only spec-oriented, but the slabbed 9.4 up book which gets CGC sealed so it cannot be opened is in and of itself spec-oriented in its nature

 

I use the Gerber Mylite-2 Super/Gold with a Gold board to house all my comics. These work very well

 

Higher grades get 2 or 3 boards to keep it snug as the bug in the rug

 

Having a "perfect" comic book, where i am thinking the presses were rolling them off at the rate of 35,000 an hour, why get all crazed to get that most perfect specimen when that type of money can get one a much larger pile of cool older comic books

 

I also do not think "speculator" is a bad word - i began speculating in new comics with a passion back in 1968 and one day they became older comics

[BLBcomics-migration]

I would definitely watch out, as this opinion is far from a popular one on here. I, and many others, agree with you, but have learned not to awaken the sleeping CGC speculators and invite their board-sanctioned wrath.

 

I can only assume the break from reality necessary for the "most of HG X is already slabbed" is due to the huge boxes of ultra-expensive CGC books they've got stacked up.

 

Well, after going thru that Obadiah Oldbuck vs Superman thread on the Gold board, and the debate whether the research i have been doing for years now into pre 1933 comic books, as well as being in this comics fandom field for 40 years come next month, i have seen a lot of fads come and go.

 

The obvious query concept is how does one do research for others to learn from if all the books end of CGC'd is one reason i brought this up.

 

And the obvious answer is that the vast majority of comic books will never be slabbed - too many people still enjoy reading this stuff. At least the ones i know

 

\Now, i have a decent amount of high grade for sale - and it tends to sell pretty fast

 

I was talking about the books i place into my collection with the main reason a book will get into my collection being i want to look inside - if all i was after was pretty covers, i would stick with my Gerber volumes

 

And finally, the last thing i want to do is stir up that sanctioned hornet's nest

[Foolkiller]

I did not mean to write that 9.4 & up people are only spec-oriented, but the slabbed 9.4 up book which gets CGC sealed so it cannot be opened is in and of itself spec-oriented in its nature

 

Can't say I disagree.

[Aman619]

Hey Bob, keep in mind that the "hornet's nest" JC is talking about is a reaction to HOW JC speaks around here and not what he is actually saying. Very few guys here actually defend their modern and Bronze slab collections to the death via the current Census.... they just dont cotton to being called *spoon*, *spoon*, and lamebrains all the time by JC for collecting what they like to collect.

[tth2]

I was thinking about, as you indicate, total census counts of numbers of copies still extant - and in that scenario, there are ga-zliions more copies out there that skew any Scarcity Ratio Index

 

I see so many auction house descriptions which tout the "Best Copy" slabbed concept, which does imply best copy in existence to many novice people. And i have no doubt that most any high grade of any book of note does get slabbed as it comes into the circulating pool of books in the marketplace.

 

So, while i have absolutely nothing against books being 3rd party inspected and graded, the census count as a determining factor of scarcity will always remain a joke to be bandied about at the bar - there are too many collectors out there i know who do not get anything slabbed, and when they buy slabbed books, they break the seal and look inside, life beyond the cover as it were

It`s called a representative sample, Bob. No one is saying it is perfectly precise. But it does generally provide a pretty good indication of relative scarcity (or abundance). You yourself confirmed that GL 76 was relatively hard to find in HG, particularly in comparison to the later Adams issues. This trend seems to be mirrored pretty well in the Census. Other examples abound. GS X-Men #1 has always been pretty easy to find in HG, while X-Men #94 has been much harder to find in HG, relatively speaking. Again, the Census mirrors this trend. I don`t think it`s a coincidence.

 

Did you ever hear of Nielsen ratings in TV? Hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising revenue depended on these numbers. Here`s a newsflash: not every TV viewer in America was being surveyed, actually only a very small number. Your comment about the Census being invalid because you know some collectors who haven`t slabbed their copies is the equivalent of saying the Superbowl couldn`t have been the most watched show because in YOUR neighborhood you knew that more people were watching some other show at the time.

 

Actually, what DOES air on the other channels during the Superbowl?

[underthebigw]

I was thinking about, as you indicate, total census counts of numbers of copies still extant - and in that scenario, there are ga-zliions more copies out there that skew any Scarcity Ratio Index

 

I see so many auction house descriptions which tout the "Best Copy" slabbed concept, which does imply best copy in existence to many novice people. And i have no doubt that most any high grade of any book of note does get slabbed as it comes into the circulating pool of books in the marketplace.

 

So, while i have absolutely nothing against books being 3rd party inspected and graded, the census count as a determining factor of scarcity will always remain a joke to be bandied about at the bar - there are too many collectors out there i know who do not get anything slabbed, and when they buy slabbed books, they break the seal and look inside, life beyond the cover as it were

It`s called a representative sample, Bob. No one is saying it is perfectly precise. But it does generally provide a pretty good indication of relative scarcity (or abundance). You yourself confirmed that GL 76 was relatively hard to find in HG, particularly in comparison to the later Adams issues. This trend seems to be mirrored pretty well in the Census. Other examples abound. GS X-Men #1 has always been pretty easy to find in HG, while X-Men #94 has been much harder to find in HG, relatively speaking. Again, the Census mirrors this trend. I don`t think it`s a coincidence.

 

Did you ever hear of Nielsen ratings in TV? Hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising revenue depended on these numbers. Here`s a newsflash: not every TV viewer in America was being surveyed, actually only a very small number. Your comment about the Census being invalid because you know some collectors who haven`t slabbed their copies is the equivalent of saying the Superbowl couldn`t have been the most watched show because in YOUR neighborhood you knew that more people were watching some other show at the time.

 

Actually, what DOES air on the other channels during the Superbowl?

 

I have to differ on this. The census is, in every way, NOT a representative sample. It is biased beyond belief. It is influenced by temporary trends in demand, it is biased by the type (age and interests) of collectors it appeals to, and, by CGC's very nature, it is designed to appeal to collectors who want their HG books to be liquid.

 

That said, there are going to be instances in which it does accurately reflect scarcity or relative scarcity. But there are also going to be ways in which it absolutely does not. Does CGC appeal as much to collectors age 50-60 as it does to those ages 20-40. No way. Does CGC appeal as much to collectors of Dells, Archies, and other Funny Animal books. No. Will the census ever accurately reflect the relative rarity of Fiction House or Harvey Horror titles compared to other titles. Probably not, unless this hobby and CGC continue for another 20-30 years. And then, it will only accurately reflect HG books. It's a fun tool that can be useful in leading on to follow hunches, but it is no where near even imperfectly precise and does not approach the accuracy of sophisticated polling and statistical techniques.

[joe_collector]

Your comment about the Census being invalid because you know some collectors who haven`t slabbed their copies is the equivalent of saying the Superbowl couldn`t have been the most watched show because in YOUR neighborhood you knew that more people were watching some other show at the time.

 

Wow, it looks like we have a winner for Most Illogical Statement Ever!

 

Congrats.

[tth2]

I was thinking about, as you indicate, total census counts of numbers of copies still extant - and in that scenario, there are ga-zliions more copies out there that skew any Scarcity Ratio Index

 

I see so many auction house descriptions which tout the "Best Copy" slabbed concept, which does imply best copy in existence to many novice people. And i have no doubt that most any high grade of any book of note does get slabbed as it comes into the circulating pool of books in the marketplace.

 

So, while i have absolutely nothing against books being 3rd party inspected and graded, the census count as a determining factor of scarcity will always remain a joke to be bandied about at the bar - there are too many collectors out there i know who do not get anything slabbed, and when they buy slabbed books, they break the seal and look inside, life beyond the cover as it were

It`s called a representative sample, Bob. No one is saying it is perfectly precise. But it does generally provide a pretty good indication of relative scarcity (or abundance). You yourself confirmed that GL 76 was relatively hard to find in HG, particularly in comparison to the later Adams issues. This trend seems to be mirrored pretty well in the Census. Other examples abound. GS X-Men #1 has always been pretty easy to find in HG, while X-Men #94 has been much harder to find in HG, relatively speaking. Again, the Census mirrors this trend. I don`t think it`s a coincidence.

 

Did you ever hear of Nielsen ratings in TV? Hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising revenue depended on these numbers. Here`s a newsflash: not every TV viewer in America was being surveyed, actually only a very small number. Your comment about the Census being invalid because you know some collectors who haven`t slabbed their copies is the equivalent of saying the Superbowl couldn`t have been the most watched show because in YOUR neighborhood you knew that more people were watching some other show at the time.

 

Actually, what DOES air on the other channels during the Superbowl?

 

I have to differ on this. The census is, in every way, NOT a representative sample. It is biased beyond belief. It is influenced by temporary trends in demand, it is biased by the type (age and interests) of collectors it appeals to, and, by CGC's very nature, it is designed to appeal to collectors who want their HG books to be liquid.

 

That said, there are going to be instances in which it does accurately reflect scarcity or relative scarcity. But there are also going to be ways in which it absolutely does not. Does CGC appeal as much to collectors age 50-60 as it does to those ages 20-40. No way. Does CGC appeal as much to collectors of Dells, Archies, and other Funny Animal books. No. Will the census ever accurately reflect the relative rarity of Fiction House or Harvey Horror titles compared to other titles. Probably not, unless this hobby and CGC continue for another 20-30 years. And then, it will only accurately reflect HG books. It's a fun tool that can be useful in leading on to follow hunches, but it is no where near even imperfectly precise and does not approach the accuracy of sophisticated polling and statistical techniques.

Sorry, you`re absolutely right. I failed to clarify that I was talking only about books that have been submitted in enough numbers to be statistically significant. Even then, as you rightly point out, the census is mostly useful for higher grade books.

 

As you correctly point out, there are a lot of titles that will never be submitted in meaningful numbers, and even in titles where a lot of copies have been submitted, the mid-grade and lower grade copies will never be represented in any meaningful way because the financial incentive to submit them isn`t there.

 

But, I will still say that the Census can be useful for identifying trends, even in books that haven`t been submitted in large numbers. For instance, Turok, particularly the early Dell copies, is not a heavily submitted title. But, lo and behold, Turok #3, which was discovered in pretty large numbers in the Circle 8 collection and has therefore always been considered plentiful in HG compared to other early issues, does indeed dwarf the numbers in the surrounding issues in the Census.

[Aman619]

Hey Bob, keep in mind that the "hornet's nest" JC is talking about is a reaction to HOW JC speaks around here and not what he is actually saying. Very few guys here actually defend their modern and Bronze slab collections to the death via the current Census.... they just dont cotton to being called *spoon*, *spoon*, and lamebrains all the time by JC for collecting what they like to collect.

 

well, I see that at the least, JC wont be calling anyone a *spoon* any more!

[BLBcomics-migration]

All i was getting at, and people seem to agree in the main, is the CGC census will never be a decent representative sampling of how many copies are still in existence of 99.9% of all comic books

 

Maybe one day every Action #1 (and books of this calibre) will be slabbed, but for the vast majority of comic book titles and numbers, this will never be so

 

And let me make it perfectly clear here, i classify myself as a comic book speculator, and have been one neigh 40 years now. I helped invent the system