Mmehdy

JOHN: The wrong assumption you making looking back at the 1918 Pandemic or others is that the economy was just that ...1918. Economy, and for that matter any historical economy. We live in an entirely different world today in 2020. The US government is is record breaking debt as well as Europe and nations. Our reliance on other nations, for example China for cheaper medicine was non-existent in 1918. There are many factors too many to list here which point to this being a unique situation in time for humanity. Historical data is important, but only relevant under those exact same circumstances and conditions if you want to project those exact results as the probable outcome so be it. We can use it as a reference point but not gospel. Historical data does not necessary translate into 2020 reality. I am not speculating, but merely stating the facts which present themselves today, April 5, 2020. We are in a depression, period. Talk to the 25% who are unemployed right now, they are in a immediate depression,.The whole world does not know it yet, but the forward thinkers do. I do not think, if you read my earlier posts, that this will last in terms of historical data-10 years for the last depression in USA that nor will be the same, I am always siding on the positive side of things. Max 3 years..Min 1 is my best guess here. If we face "reality" and tackle as such, then we have much less fear to deal..it is the unknown that is greatest fear.. That is my point here. Discuss it and rather keep it in. One of my major concerns is the underwater pension plans of the state and local governments especially the state of Illinois whose projections of fund growth to pay underfunded pensions plans have just hit a block wall. Calpiers took a 69 billion dollar hit in value and the stock market still has a way to go. While historically there might be some incidents of the past that are very similar, there is nothing like this combination of 2020 issues together. The solution I see if the federal government taking over those pension plans and printing money. Speaking of printing money, who is gonna pay all of this money back 4 trillion, 20 trillion print overtime printing press with reams of paper. You and me probably thru inflation down the ,as it is a cheaper payback.. Again, a lot of unique 2020 circumstances all combining at once. This financial crisis would have probably happened anyway some where down the line, this just sped it up and put us in a very weak position to deal with it today. There are major fundamental flaws of the world economy in 2020 and they are going be exposed. You cannot use the historical past to say I have bad attitude about this, If we use the past history of depressions, look at the Germany and US in the 1930's.it took a war to get out. Today,Nobody is gonna be able to afford to go war this time. I appreciate your opinion, I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong, but the probable outcome here is something in between. I ask that you to take into consideration the complete current economic system as it exists today which has major flaws in it and not just in a historical bubble of past pandemics recoveries. This recession/depression is something much bigger and fundamental system wise than this virus. We just need some luck here to find this vaccine....and get on the right track, but there are some big changes and fixes coming and they will be for the better for ALL. In the end we will overcome whatever is in front us and learn from that, be better citizens and not just look at our phones and consider that the entire world but remember that it is the real people that count and we are all in this together. So here is my question to you, based upon your extensive reading and understanding of past pandemics what is your best guess as to how things will play out over next 3 months, 6 months and and year? I am interested to hear your opinion.

A real issue on GA/SA collecting is looking at a comic book you potentially want to buy and figuring out if the book would be a good candidate for pressing etc and resubmission. It can be graded or ungraded and we all consider this factor during a purchase. During this crisis time many factors will change the normal course especially using this as a major factor in a GA/SA buying decision. If you think based on these unstable market conditions you can turn an immediate profit..you had better do so ASAP... Things are gonna change. 1-If you have considered pressing/etc your GA book and resubmitting it to the CGC or taking a ungraded book and putting it on steroids and then submitting to the CGC, I would recommend you do it at once. CGC both pressing and grading services could be closed for a very long time. Further your book could sit after being pressed to await a regrade if you get caught in the middle. 2- I think CGC graded GA..restored or unrestored is the best insurance you can have to try to reduce any great decline of value in your collection, I would submit any ungraded GA/SA material which you conclude is worth grading ASAP. They will easier to sell or trade during this downturn. 3-We have not really hit a depression mentality yet..it is too soon...everybody becomes cheap in a depression mentality and our usual lifestyle that we have been living is gonna substantially change.If you are buying a GA book that you feel could be upgraded by CGC magic, you must now consider this major factor or consideration: Will the upcoming price decline will wipe out any increase in value of the GA/SA book that you anticipated . Will the costs of upgrading adding to the purchase price put eliminate some buyers as the price will change for the book. The more you have invested in the book, the greater the return is necessary to break even or turn a profit. When that community depression mentality hits, and it will, ALL collectable values are going to be in the radar of that mentality whether you collect GA/SA or comic book original art, coins etc. My advice to you if you will need to sell in the next 12 months or want to trade..get your books in now to the CGC to preserve your collections top value going forward while you can. We will turn the corner on this and we GA/SA collectors can go back to what we do best..Enjoy GA/SA as there is nothing else like it.

I would second that with saying more of a price pause..Cap#1 and #3 and others were a pretty good indicator the market was running out of gas, I still feel however there was some play left in that Cap 1.,3 but things can only go in one direction for so long. If this crisis had not occurred it might of be a slight pause for a year, maybe two before the next "hot" trend would hit GA/SA and upswing the entire overall GA/SA comic book market. If we look into the future and GA/SA prices points were artificially brought down by the crisis...does that mean that the recovery from crisis market price correction when it turns upward should be faster? It could be. Especially is this is a deep price correction. I think there will be a lot of buyers on the sideline, not just true comic book collectors but major comic book dealers and possible some investors just waiting for the right time to come into this Ga/SA market. What is the safest place to be in GA/SA collecting during an unknown market price decline which is predicated on a cure of a virus. This unknown territory but it is simple to say, the longer the decline, the farther the road to recovery back is. We might not ever get back to these pre-virus price points again, and the same can be said with stock market which was at Dow 29,000 plus. However, I think 99% at some point both will recover to the old high points. If you are, like me, waiting a bit to see where we are going, and get some type of estimate or fog clearing moment that we are all gonna be ok....SOON...I would buy in safest area. I prefer auctions over dealers for one reason and that is you can be anonymous as what you want and hyper inflate the market of the books that you want. I believe however, that buying dealer direct would cheaper in the long run, but some of this "once in a lifetime material" comes on auctions or thru E-bay and then disappears, you never see it again and call yourself a cheapskate for not going all the way. In fact I am looking carefully at one particular item coming up soon this month, currently with just a couple of bids, but I guarantee they have not done the research I have on that "once in a lifetime" piece. Safest buying is pieces that YOU consider if you don't buy it now, you may never get it again-rarity or if I don't buy it now I will be never able to afford it again (buy Cap 1 or 3 my advice if you do not own those books or Sup1 etc...LOL). That would be my guiding principal to buy during this entire crisis. Prior to this crisis, I received a call from a collector friend who was selling a rare GA comic book collector to collector , he wanted $13,900..based upon market value and price paid and holding time. He was offered $13,000 for it and asked me if he should take it. The offer would mean a slight loss, accounting for the holding time value of money, on paper a small profit but for factoring in inflation a slight loss. He countered at $13,500 and the buyer would come up a penny. He stated I know I can get at least $13,500 and Probably $13,750. I told him to take it, that he could use his extensive comic book collecting knowledge to turn that 13K into 20K in a heartbeat. He did not listen to me. For the last couple of months we talk about it, so he finally breaks down yesterday and calls the buyer and says I am gonna call him and take the 13K. He does, but the buyer now says $11,500 and that everything has "changed" since he made that offer. He calls me back, not a happy camper...mad as heck...asked me what he should do.. and I told him....take the $11500. If he waits and buys right he can take and turn it into $23,000 within 2 years. He did.

Cong- great buy and great stuff coming up, I see about 3 more Big Ha auctions for the rest of the year..look for 6 in 2021 as material is lining up to get in and out to us collectors, also look for Ha weekly auctions to increase in book quality in the future, especially late 2020. While CGC is still open, any books you might consider the GA/SA which you are either selling or trading should be sent to them immediately and pay for priority grading if you want them back in time for future auction or sale. CGC could be down for a while and I believe that CGC over the grading companies consistently brings a bit more in price or possible demand to the table. I think the premium you will pay for grading especially in these tough times will be well worth the cost as this crisis goes on, buyers will become picker and CGC can assure them that what they are buying is what they are getting. Especially the determination of restored vs unrestored GA/SA is gonna be in many cases a make or break sale, if ungraded you will be at the mercy of the seller and why should he take a risk if so much other CGC graded material is out there for sale, up for auction or trade with little or no risk involved. It will be the ungraded GA comic book price that will take a beating.

Doing a big sell off and spinning it on the grounds they want to "test" their software..... IF this is true this move is about the money...rule one of business-follow the money. If people believe this "spin' I know of investment grade quality Florida swamp land. If this is true that it is all of their own stock or 90%..it appears to one of the following reasons. They could have concuded that the GA/SA market has price peaked. Second, that they believe we are going into a depression and that it will take years to get out of it. Now smart GA collectors who are in the GA collecting/selling business for life...do one thing. Sell the little stuff and get a big bag of money ready to buy the very best at the bottom of the market. They know since they are one of the biggest dealers on the planet, who has what, who needs money, and who might sell. This is a pure business move WAY ahead on the chessboard of GA collecting. These are very smart folks. This is not a "test"..this is the real deal.

I hope we never see that day, but we should be able to get out of this mess without WW3. I hope we have gained more humanity, or more intelligence since 1939-1945 to find another solution. Hopefully we can overcome this soon and keep out GA/SA comic book collections intact.

great book

Got you...LOL but I have always thought that the "Murder" book is a classic...Cong on the buys

FIXED...LOL

" The US coin market held reasonably firm through the depression" as people filled in holes in penny boards during the 1930's.I do not believe that GA/SA comic book collecting especially in the GCG era of collecting/speculating can really compare to that.. It is a good question to ask however, the last great depression hit us hard for 10 years. This depression is gonna hit harder in terms of unemployment but in quicker amount of time. It might even be called when we get out this a "Flash Crash" and I hope it turns out this way. I saw something interesting today as I went to my bank and that branch and I went to another and that was closed...no signs directing a branch was open...this could be the way things are gonna be for a while, if any GA collectors do not know how use that ATM or the banks website I would learn now. By going ATM it limits a bank run. In the prior depression, there was a" bank holiday". It just seemed to me a bit different out there, today. In terms of selling, we might revert to the old days of comic book collecting. Trading...which is not a bad thing at all...you could value the books pretty easy and you are not limited to a buyers ability to pay. If things get really tough out there, this might be the way to go to get rid of your dupes and material you can live without. The best way to do this is trade up as I think quality material will not decrease as much and will come back sooner price wise. Again, as a member above just posted 4 good GA books that he purchased from a dealer at a very attractive price...I would contact them...We have Bedrock, Gator and a whole host of other members who have AMAZING stock and besides being cool they have always been very reasonable and fair to deal with. Given these uncertain times, I have no doubt they would continue to do so. Remember that GA is "GOLD".

Here is what does not make sense...1-if he sold the collection in 2008 why would he continue to buy the books thru 2016?...and he if did sell the collection..why the upgrades on A1 and D27?

WOW-Amazing and thanks for the interior shot....CONG

he was collecting DC in the 70's and I had heard he sold the collection he competed. I sent him some photos of Action 1 I was selling, I think it was VF for 4K or 5K and he turned it down. he said he wanted one in better condition?

Maybe in the DC universe..or maybe Marvel...but not ours...

that 's the spirit

I agree with you that the online auctions especially if they are discontinued for a while and will have a "pile up" of consignments will decrease resulting action prices due to oversupply and lack of demand. If I were selling, I would go to E-Bay and list immediately as you had the "Ford Motor Company" of E-bay comic book sellers just shut down in MyComicShop and who knows who is gonna be next. Sending GA comic books to Auction houses to sell at an unknown price at and at a unknown time, and not knowing what you are competing against in the auction does not make good business sense to me. With our free time, Look over your collection and pull out the weak spots and try to sell or trade up if you can and make you GA collection better and stronger. On the buy side, MyComicShop when it opens, you might be able to pick up some good deals on GA. I would also look at Ha.com "make an offer to the owner"....its an offer. I would look at older sales of GA/SA books as those prices tend to be lower..possible that book you have waited 10 years for is on there, the seller worst case can only say no or counter offer...Look carefully into also contacting by E-mail Ga/SA dealers and providing them a want list and what you would be wiling to pay. On you 1930's possible depression mode, I would strongly disagree that this is gonna be a repeat. The previous depression lasted 10 years and it took a WWII to get our attention out of that mental and physical downturn. Since that time, everything has increased in s terms of speed in our lives. Instant news means instant positive news on the other side. Worst case in my book is 3 years...one year to beat this thing and two years to recover. I just think we can bounce back much quicker and we have already lived thru one and learned a lot from it. The key is not how long it is gonna be, the key is what it looks like after full recovery. I would see the major issues being that it would hasten comic book print media's life if Diamond was to go down or the comic book distribution model changed significantly. It would be easier for either Marvel or DC to say we are going digital, Like Mad Magazine's slow death. Diamond will be on the other hand never the same with its tight distribution control. Best case 1/3 all comics shops are gone in the next 3 years...lower print runs, less $$$ for Diamond and they are gonna take a hit no matter what. I think it is important for every Ga/SA collector that Major comic book companies continue to print comic books. I don't want out GA/SA to go the way of the 33' records. So we need to watch this carefully as it unfolds. I think people change rather quickly, we tend to forget the bad in the past and have tunnel vision into the future, especially the younger that you are. So, I think we all need to be concerned, and pay close attention to what is going on, but we will come out of this, and I think sooner, rather than later.

any keys not restored?

that is great news...CONG and you are wise to "hold" on for the long run. Today it appears that Diamond announced that that it is not paying it vendors this week. That is significant as it appears its customers have not all paid diamond. There could be a vendor revolt and DC or Marvel could go out on their own. This is going to be interesting on how it plays, where it becomes tricky is will new product get log-jammed up, especially new comic books. I buy the GAreprint books at least one or two per month. Mycomicshop has apparently closed due to the Virus which has a pretty big presence on the web selling part of GA/SA etc. This normal going into a shut down...how they come back is what counts. One less avenue to sell or trade GA now however.

make that a double...LOL

I would have to second that Apprasial directly related to Southern California, other states may have yet to get the virus at our current level or their population is spread out more. Might a nice idea for dealers to do FaceTime visits to their store to keep sales afloat.

Since the movie industry has taken over the show they won’t be there till production begins again and they want to promote their product and just watch he SDCC come crawling back to the people who started this...comic book dealers and collectors And ask for a rescue...we will be there as well have never left just pushed aside.

Great idea.... that is exactly what I am talking about in GA community. I think something is better than nothing. SDCC and all other comic cons are done for the year. Until, movie theaters reopen... first in China is the test..125,000 people are not getting together in one crowded place for quite some time. I am optimistic that it will be back next year. This event roll out will Happen gradually and with proper care. i think the CGC GA community should sent a joint message to SDCC and NYCC with your suggestions. Let’s do it

I would say if possible all books over $500 not necessarily 250K

Super idea.

The price correction will occur over time, our GA is not a daily up and down extremely active stock market with prices changing with the wind every second . The prices most likely to drop the biggest are common Ultra high grade marvels and recent stuff as well as trendy comic books whose prices were pumped up due to comic movie mania. Also, as time goes on more collectors will need to cash, again if supply is low the price change should be a very gradual decline and then a positive upswing. But if a number of large GA/SA comic book collections hit the market at the same time, look for oversupply on an already tight spending period in the GA/SA comic book market. That is real issue here..supply. The last area of comic book collecting to be hit with a downturn will be GA. It is just plain rarer that the other comic books, and especially in good condition, unrestored, good page and staple quality. I think if we consider the Flipper/Investor they are more likely to own Spiderman 2 than Wonder Woman 47. So I see more stability in GA clearly over SA in the long run over this unknown crisis period. Still the need for cash does not distinguish between GA/SA/Copper collectors. Our comic book market has gone thru some amazing publicity in terms of all time record breaking comic book films, comic book convention attendance growth including small regional shows like "terry's" in LA and increased interest in comic book retailers, such as "free comic book day". That focus is going to be redirected to saving people's lives, creating new jobs, and repairing the damage done to our economy/. So this has to be factored in on future GA/SA prices. Movies theaters are gonna be closed for a very long time and if China is the model for at least the end of the year, same with comic conventions. The comic book stores will be the first to reopen and we just don't know how long it will take to regain 50% of their business, let alone get back to 100%. I am not doom and gloom, I am a realist getting this out to our comic community to deal with it head on, and not make it worse than it really is. We will survive and so will GA comic book collecting. But we are not for a while, gonna have a "Avengers" comic book movie setting a world wide box officer record. We are not gonna have a SDCC this year with 125,000 attendees and every media outlet in the county taking about comic books and related subjects. We are going to have to tough it out alone, and that is ok, for when times get tough for True comic book collectors, we get tougher. Less speculators and achieving true responsible and sustainable value in the GA/SA market will be very beneficial in the long run for all true comic book collectors and their collections. For those who are just here to speculate go back to stocks, bonds, and gold, shorts, longs, and EFT or whatever...we don't need you. How we handle the drop and the eventual recovery are equally important for you and I as we are here for the long run. When either buying or selling GA at this time... if buying have a long run hold expectation, be patient for the most opportune time, and be picky. If selling, make a priority on material that you have multiple copies or, low grade or any restored comic books and hold on as long as possible to the books you truly love. Hitting this fear right between the eyes, we are gonna survive.