you can't use the outlier of all outliers as a benchmark, sir. No way does it reach 1m.
Sure you can. In fact, you almost have to.
Once *something* breaks a psychological barrier, it then becomes easier for something else to beat it. It took decades for coins to break $1M. The first one came tantalizingly close in 1989, at $990,000. It took 7 more years, 1996, for it to finally happen.
Since then, in 18 short years, more than 200 different coins have sold for $1M+, some as much as $10,000,000 (1794 Dollar.)
The sale itself was a huge outlier...granted...but the public then forgets that it was a bidding war, and only remembers the price. And then it becomes "well, if such and such sold for $600K, it's not out of the question that this far more important piece would sell for so much more.
It's bound to happen. When Warhols and Pollocks sell for $100M+, 1/100th of that for pop culture icons doesn't seem so out of the question.
I mean, if Jasper Johns works...and he's still alive...can sell for around $100M, it is hardly inconceivable that the most important piece of original art from the last 40 years can break $1M.
It's the original art showing the first appearance of what has become arguably the 4th most popular superhero of all time.
The only thing I could see being more valuable (as it relates to Wolvie) would be the cover to 181.
The best Warhols and Pollocks should be worth more than 100x the best Herb Trimpe.
Jasper Johns may be alive, but he ain't making any more $100 million pieces - that price level is reserved for his most important older works.
This is not the most important piece of OA from the last 40 years. The Hulk #181 cover probably exists and the GSXM #1 cover definitely exists. I'm sure others would rate various covers (e.g., DKR #1, etc.) above this panel page as well.
The public story behind the ASM #328 cover was all kabuki theater. If you knew the real story behind it, you'd readily acknowledge that extenuating circumstances trump any psychological price barrier that was broken. OA guys know this was a total outlier event and treat it as such.
I'm not saying that it's impossible for this piece to surpass $1 million, but it's a very small probability (like a 50-1 shot at best). No one who knows the OA market can state with any authority that there is "little doubt" it will hit that level, while "transitive property" arguments (e.g., "The ASM #328 cover sold for $657K, this page is better, so it must be worth a million!") are often flawed and empirically wrong because of shakiness in one or more parts of the syllogism - it would be utterly naive to base an argument around one grounded in a total outlier.
I'd love to hear that story. Is it ever getting out?