MasterChief

On 3/2/2023 at 8:02 AM, buttock said:

On 3/2/2023 at 7:56 AM, october said:

Eye appeal + cover detached + lower grade > unmanipulated higher grade + cover not ripped off staples

Also "sold" means "I sent it to auction". 

The hobby makes total sense. Cue Tim's catchphrase.

Don't question it Andy.  It's in much better shape.  You were told. 

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes data from January closed auctions, plus a new table with sales data broken out in a month-over-month trend.

(Source: Heritage Auctions, Comic Connect (CC), ComicLink (CL), eBay. Data sorted oldest to newest Sale Date)
 

On 1/13/2023 at 5:22 AM, tth2 said:

On 1/12/2023 at 6:51 PM, RareHighGrade said:

On 1/12/2023 at 6:38 PM, adamstrange said:

Prices were strong for GA with a number of unexpectedly strong results.

I don't know about the GA selection as a whole, but I can tell you that all of the books I was eyeing went for record breaking prices.

Time to go for Common Low Grade books! 

Not sure about CLG, but this low-grade book is down 30% from its last sale with yesterday’s close.

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes data from recently closed auctions, a "New Grade" column, and additional sales from other venues as noted by Resold @.

(Source: Heritage Auctions, Comic Connect (CC), ComicLink (CL), eBay. Data sorted oldest to newest Sale Date)
 

On 11/25/2022 at 4:37 AM, SeniorSurfer said:

I think if Detective "Dave" ever found himself on the receiving end of the same allegations he might learn a bit more about casting aspersions, reporting and himself as well.  Otherwise...

Oh, the irony!

This guy “Detective Dave” was the subject of intense outrage on the boards several years ago when he was involved in mangling numerous Golden and Silver Age books and selling them to unsuspecting collectors. The doctored books are known as “Facejobs.”

The Wilsonization of those books turned them into different specimens altogether. CGC was caught in the middle. They engaged Mark Zaid to investigate and, ultimately, a new CGC term was coined – Reverse Spine Roll.

No sense in posting the manipulation receipts. It’s thoroughly documented and folks can read about the episode in two different threads...

On 11/23/2022 at 4:13 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

On 11/23/2022 at 3:57 AM, Motor City Rob said:

 

Has anyone else seen this? I've always had good results with MCS and CLink but I found this video interesting. Hope it's not true but he makes some great points. 

 

Expand  

I made it 3 minutes in.  Does he ever eventually make a point?

Is this some kind of joke?

The perpetrator of "Facejobs" using the reverse spine roll technique is now a comic book detective uncovering and exposing alleged corruption within the hobby?

My word, I’ve seen it all. 

On 11/20/2022 at 9:37 PM, lou_fine said:

On 11/20/2022 at 10:17 AM, buttock said:

Steve Ritter has a few on his website, although they are cracked out and given a higher raw grade.

Well, that's probably because Ritter figures that some pedigree books might just be worth a lot more in raw condition, as opposed to when they are already in certified graded condition. 

I haven’t been on that site in seven years. Not since I got caught up in his crack, manipulate, resell raw at higher grade program; or his other model of crack and resell raw at higher grade without manipulation.

He’s currently got the largest inventory of Promise books that I’ve seen outside of a Heritage auction. I took a look at the raw books and many were formerly certified. Before and after image comparison reveal those that were obviously manipulated bear appreciable damage such as indented staples, and yet they are assigned higher grades.

Here’s just one example. No sense in showing others, you get the picture. Those that are interested can conducted additional research and draw their own conclusions.

Captain Marvel Jr. #17 CGC 8.0
Heritage Sale: $720.00

Worldwide Grade: VF+ (CGC 8.5)
Price: $1,150.00

Post Manipulation Assessment: Cover wrap twisted upward and to the left revealing interior wraps bottom right, top right. Indented/impacted staple.

On 11/19/2022 at 2:27 PM, buttock said:

Absolutely painful.  I know I overpaid for a couple of the ones I got, but I wasn't after them for the financial gain, rather to get the books.  More incentive to just enjoy them. 

Ditto. I've picked up several. One of which I got caught up in the hype and bid foolishly. Like the book, but not the price. It's a loooong term hold. 

Here's one I'm extremely happy with. An "Armand" copy. Waited quite a while for just the right copy to go after. Couldn't be happier.

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes recent reselling of Sub-Mariner Comics #32 and Terry-Toons Comics #38.

(Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest Sale Date)

Love seeing this book -- especially at this time of year!

Picked this up during the original sale of the Rosa collection on eBay. Not white pages but IIRC, it was the only 9.8 copy graded at the time...

On 9/17/2022 at 9:33 PM, lou_fine said:

Only one thing that I noticed here in your chart.  Why only one column in there for the CGC grade or are you trying to imply that all of the grades for the 43 books in total remained unchanged from the first go round.  If this is the case, isn't this really rather surprising in this day and age of certification where most flippers are into playing the CPR game, that not even a single one of the resellers here dare even tried to play the game with these Promise books here.  

Yes, it is surprising. I found no upgrades. Books appear to be in the same state of original sale.

Historically, books that get relisted in a Heritage Auction in a relatively short period of time, typically 6-12 months, have gone through the post-auction manipulation process and are listed with new certification numbers and higher grades. That’s been the MO since Heritage Signature Auction #803 (July 4, 2002), which was the genesis of institutionalized manipulation. There wasn’t an auction like it beforehand, and Heritage auctions afterward that included recycled books followed a clearly observable pattern of acquisition, manipulation, recertification, and liquidation. There are mounds of data from countless auctions to validate the conclusion.

Another discovery that became apparent during the ROI research is the archived sales for Promise books that now state “Not Sold” for their original auction. There are currently 9 books in the archive that are categorized as not sold. One in particular, which was discussed here on the boards when first auctioned, is Saddle Justice #6.

After the initial auction of SJ#6, Heritage relisted the book a few days later with a Post-Auction Buy price tag of $21,000 (the winner apparently backed out of the deal). With the ending of the post-auction buy time, and no takers at $21K, the book was relisted and sold in a subsequent auction two months later for $6,600. That’s a paper loss of $14,400 or -69%.

(BTW, unless you have screen shots of books that initially sold at auction, and were later re-labeled as Not Sold, you’d never know what the original closing was.)
 

On 9/9/2022 at 4:46 AM, Robot Man said:

On 9/9/2022 at 1:50 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

As has been noted in the Heritage thread, more Promise collection books are starting to hit the secondary market. I don’t know if it’s due to current market conditions(oh crypto guys, why have you forsaken us?!) or due to collector apathy, but they are not doing so well.  I don’t know if we will continue to see more and more Promise books as financial circumstances dictate, but I’m hitting the snooze button on mine. Good thing I buy things I like

Is that any suprise? Any reasonably long time collector or dealer should have figured that out very quickly.

Now if you bought to keep or hold for the long time, you might make a little. But it will take quite a while.

Some of the lessor, later, none key books or titles will probably not be worth anything close to original purchase price.

 

The current ROI snapshot does not look promising for the collection.

While time will provide more data, and investment realization may change, the spreadsheet below paints an overall picture of the irrational exuberance that drove Promise prices higher than they fundamentally justified. (Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest purchase date)