mjoeyoung

The great majority of people that purchased "hot" books during the bubble are looking at significant paper losses. For long term collectors this is not a problem. Anyone with a short time frame is going to have difficult decisions to make. First they will hold, in the hopes that prices rebound, then they will put the books up for sale at inflated prices (see above), and then as prices continue to fall they will finally capitulate and take whatever they can get. If enough people do this, the values will crater. This is the "smoldering fire" beneath the "flaming wreckage." Over in the Post your Promise Collection Wins thread, MasterChief has been compiling a list of Promise Collection resales. Those sellers have lost over $1 million!

I was a bit surprised by these Amazing Spider-Man #1 prices from Comiclink on Friday: Stan Lee signed 4.0 for $10K = Last sale $13.7K, 12M Avg $12K 2.5 for $4700 = Last sale in Nov for $6600, 12M Avg $8K 2.0 for $4955 = Last sale in Nov for $7200, 12M Avg $8K Last time a 2.0 sold for under $5K was 2020 when the average of 8 sales was $4711. Highest sale was in Oct 2021 for $13.2K Last time a 2.5 sold for under $5K was also 2020 when the average of 13 sales was $5468. Highest sale was in Jan 2022 for $14.4K Last time for a 4.0 under $10K was Jan 2021 for $8625 before prices ballooned. Average of 10 sales was $13.9K. Highest sale was in Apr 2022 for $18.6K An interesting point (to me at least) is that 5/6 4.0s sold this year and 4/5 2.5s recorded by the GPA have been sold through Heritage.

I did not want Vintage to break his Vow of Privacy , so I took a stab at this. Here are all the SA books (I think) from the first Comiclink session that were listed as "Highest Graded" along with the LAST and 12 MONTH average according to the GPA. The data is sparse, with some of the LAST sales occurring in 2018 or earlier. I tried to get the data to match up in the most consistent manner possible. If there were prior sales on a pedigree book, that is reflected in LAST sale, otherwise I used prior generic grade sales. Same deal with the SIGNED books. I compared the SOLD price to the LAST sale if available. On the positive side the FFs were hot. The Iron Man & Subby issue took a nosedive. The Thor #128 price is 20X the last 9.6 sale in March. 35 books up in value, 20 down, and 4 either with no prior sales or stayed the same. Now... about it!

That's why I'm holding onto my Beanie Babies! When that recovery kicks in I'll be buying a yacht on the Riviera next to Bezos! Gotta think long-term. Just a few more years.

I see this too. Some of these 9.8s are now selling for $20 to $40. With shipping, prescreening, and grading costs, are these books even breaking even?

Let's take a look at some Amazing Spider-Man #1s on eBay 6.0 CGC 2708346001 bought Sep 2022 for $19,800 on eBay for $25,450 - Last sale was $17.1K 4.0 CGC 1239218001 bought Jul 2019 for $12,500 on eBay for $25,999 (signed) - Last sale was $14.7K 3.0 CGC 1118139001 bought Sep 2021 for $17,500 on eBay for $26,750 (signed) - Last sale was ~$7k 5.0 CGC 3989961001 bought Jul 2023 for $12,200 on eBay for $26,999 - Last sale was $13.2K 5.0 CGC 3718226006 bought Nov 2020 for $6500 on eBay for $39,999 (unofficial Lee and Ditko sigs and RESTORED) - Last sales were $4700 and $7K with no sigs All according to GPA. 3 others had no sales I could find.

Buy HIGH sell LOW

Very interesting. If you filter to Auctions, there are only about 300,000. I wonder if that number has decreased substantially. The pessimist in me thinks that there are a lot of people who bought at inflated prices that are trying to sell.

A 9.2 sold in 2018 for $125.00, most recent sale was a 6.0 for $239.00. Only 9.8 on the census.

It is a double cover so it is worth 3X as much. It is the new math.

HA auction: Fantastic Four #5 8.0 sold for $22.8K last 2 sales were $31.2K and $33.5K in December of 2022.

Highest graded Promise Collection Batman #37 in 9.6 just sold for $48K in Heritage Auction. Last sale was $87K. Quite a haircut. Superman #1 3.0 CGC 1055241001 sold for $300K, SAME BOOK sold for $360K in June 2023.

I don't see a catalyst that will propel values back to 2021 levels in the short term. I've been away for a few months and the tone of this thread has taken a decidedly negative turn. Climb aboard my Doom Buggy and learn that, "Wait, There's Worse!" -The Fed's reluctance to cause a recession is going to leave the U.S. with high interest rates, above 5%, THROUGH 2024. -Americans reluctance to curb spending is going to keep inflation stubbornly high and "sticky" for well into 2024. -Credit card delinquencies are up, savings rate is down and consumer pessimism is rising. For the wider comic book market I think there are 3 things holding up prices: -Intentional shrinking of supply in an attempt to "weather" the current downturn. No reason to sell at a loss if you don't have to -Above FMV BIN pricing. -The "I'm getting a deal" mentality The last one is the most insidious. As values fall from the "comic mania" era, and the overall mindset has switched from bull to bear market, everybody has some point at which they feel that prices have fallen far enough that they start buying again, releasing pent-up demand. The problem is that EVERYONE has a different idea of what that level is! Some people starting buying at 10% lower prices and values level off for a time until that demand is satisfied. Then prices start falling again until the people that were waiting for 20% off start buying and again values level off for a time until that demand is satisfied. Repeat and repeat. The most bullish who bought at 10% off, may also buy at other lower valuations, but after being burned enough, most of them will pull back as well. Eventually, the "deal" mentality changes to "I'm going to wait because prices keep falling," which accelerates price declines to BELOW pre-boom values. It is only when there is a broad market consensus that prices are "cheap" that values will start rising again.

Yeah, I should have added some context there. I didn't even watch much of the video, I was just looking for any other mentions of CL being down. Looks like their strategy is working because nobody really cares enough. Site is still up for me.

About 3 hours ago I received an email stating that Session 3 of the auction was starting today. The email WAS edited from the original August first version to update the days the session was closing, but no mention of the outage.

Less than 3 hours before items start closing. It is shocking that they have made no attempts to communicate with their customers. Are they just planning to ignore it? Was ComicLink HACKED?!?! - youtube Good luck to all the sellers and bidders!

If there was a compromise of personal information, they are probably talking to their lawyer. I blame all the satanic Dungeons and Dragons stuff they sold at the last auction for the outage. Play with the devil you get burned!

I caught a Fedex driver filling out the "we tried to deliver sticker" before he had even knocked on my door. I guess he was assuming that no one was going to be home.

Did anybody have trouble with Heritage last night? I left a couple of pages up in my browser and it seemed like one of the HA.com pages had reloaded to a "we cannot tell if you are human page" this morning. It was similar in context to the pages ComicLink was loading for me before it went down.

See. If I had just "shown replies" I could have avoided all that typing!

No, no, no. It is the origin and first appearance of Doll Girl. I'm not sure if we can make any of these characters "cool" again. How many young people know or care about once popular characters like Tarzan, Flash Gordon, the Lone Ranger and the Phantom, let alone Green Lama, Black Terror and Fighting Yank? They will always be important historically, but culturally they've had their time in the sun. Sure, but as far as the comics are concerned, I don't buy any of these "dead" genres expecting to fund my retirement. Looney Tunes #1, 5.5 grade, sold for $6325 in 2006, and fell in price on every sale after that until a low of $3120 in 2019. THEN, one 5.5 sold for $13,200 in 2021. A 7.0 sold for $4560 in 2019 and then one sold for $18,000 in 2022. Rare? Yes. But undervalued to this degree? I know that Space Jam: A New Legacy came out in 2021, but I did not expect it to move comic values like this!

I'm already too long-winded in my posts. I'm trying to cut down and avoid TLDRs.

Comic genres. As far as I can tell there have not been any new Disney comics since 2008, and DC publishes Looney Tunes on a quarterly basis. There was the nostalgic resurgence in the early 90s, but, for the most part, this genre died along with Gold Key in the early 80s.

Western, Romance, War, Crime, Funny Animal, Comic Strip characters. Long term prognosis? Their dead, Jim.

There have been crazy price increases on GA as well during this bubble, across all genres. Just a few examples: Archie Comics #50, 6.5 grade, sold for $2040 in 2019, and then $4200 in 2022. Doll Man #37, 6.5 grade, sold for $780 in 2019, and then $1680 in 2022. Haunted Thrills #5, 4.5 grade, sold for $1425 in 2019, and then $4920 in 2021. Marvel Family #1, 3.0 grade, sold for $2520 in 2019, and then $11,000 in 2021. Punch Comics #9, 3.5 grade, sold for $3450 in 2018 and then $9600 in 2020. Rangers #31, 6.0 grade, sold for $721 in 2018, SAME BOOK sold for $1920 in 2021. Will the GA be immune forever?