mjoeyoung

Not looking good on the movie front. Quantumania box office was down and GofG 3 numbers look to be equally uninspiring. (IndieWire) Black Adam was pretty bad. People were hating all over the new Shazam movie, but I thought it was good for what it was: a kid's movie for kids. It had the same feel as The Kid Who Would be King (2019), another movie I enjoyed as a good, clean kid's movie. We have Across the Spider-Verse, The Marvels, Kraven the Hunter, Blue Beetle, Aquaman 2 and the Flash movie upcoming. I don't know if any of these are going to appreciably move the needle in the right direction. It seems to me that the general public is just getting tired of superhero movies.

Sure seems like it. 9.8s run fillers seem to be bucking the downward trend. FF 95 had a 9.8 sale of $1500, up from $927 in 2022. Last 9.6 sale was $228.

Sure people are buying, but what are they PAYING? The great majority of books in the chart above are below the 90 day average, and these are for the most part the big keys in the market. I don't see any reason why prices shouldn't continue falling from here. From 2019 to the middle of 2022 values skyrocketed, so why isn't it possible that values continue to unwind in a similar time frame? I wouldn't rely solely on what would be considered "normal market behavior" here. The economic conditions that got us to this point were highly abnormal. 100 year pandemic. Stay at home orders. $5 trillion dollars in stimulus. A huge runup in the stock market and crypto. Even now people are not required to make their student loan payments. Ahead of us we have possible "sticky" high inflation, high interest rates, higher housing costs, a recession, higher unemployment and probably a 15-20% drop in the stock market. These might cause some trouble. There is also a lot of psychology at play here. Someone can look at today's values and think "Prices are 50% lower than 2021, now is the time to buy." Others may say "Prices are still 100% higher than 2019, I'm going to wait until they come down more." Each thought is equally valid. Which thought becomes the prevailing wisdom?

And how many of these speculators are still buying books on Comic Link and Comic Connect, etc. at these types of prices in the hopes of flipping them as prices return to 2021 levels? How many people are investors "buying the dip" in prices, again thinking there will be a short time until the prices bounce back? I'm sure there are also a lot of FOMO buyers, worried that prices may go up. This goes hand in hand with some pent up demand from buyers who saw previously out of reach books fall back within reason. This is how you get a plateau after a deflation in values. If there are enough of these types of these people and they keep buying prices may go up from here, if there are more that believe that values are still too high...

Exactly, if this had sold for $2500 it would have been a huge bump in value. It seems that there are some people out there that are impatient enough that they will pay whatever it takes to get a copy of "name that book" RIGHT NOW! GPA? Overstreet Guide? They don't need your stinking guides! It always seems that whenever I "overpay" for a book, 6 more show up in quick secession, all selling for much less than I paid.

Can someone explain THIS result to me? Just wasn't on my radar that it would go for this much. Not many sales on the GPA, a 7.5 for $250 in 2017 and a 3.0 with brittle pages for $336 in Nov 2021. Only 9 on the census. There is a supposed 9.6 Mile High copy. Cool Cole cover.

There was a 4.5 that went for $9811, GPA has last sale at $12,500. Cover is pretty faded. Average sale this year is down to about $12K.

And then you can staple some acetate to it!

Looks like a piece has been added there on the back cover, so that would get a restored grade. Some cover fading on top of the front cover logo area. Looks nice and flat, no big creases, I could see maybe a Restored 6.0 on the high end.

That spine is pretty rough, as is the cover.. I don't see it getting any higher than a 3.0, but it looks complete so no lower than 2.0. A press will probably make it feel better in you hands but it is not going to replace the lost color and I don't think it will improve the grade.

I would say no less than 8.0 on the downside up to possible 9.0 on the high side. Looks like a small tick on the spine near the D. Corner crease on the bottom front cover is a bit of a killer. A press would probably take care of the back cover creasing.

I agree here, and the old labels are cool. I wouldn't even think about doing anything to this book until you are ready to sell it. I doubt that grading standards are going to get tougher in the future.

Results like the WBBN #32 just scream shill bidding to me. "Bob the average sale on WBBN #32 is getting too low, we need a crazy sale to bump up the price! Whew! Now we can say "Last sale was $XXXX in our next auction!""

We may have to agree to disagree here. It is hard to draw conclusions from books like Adventure Comics #247 because it just doesn't have enough sales, but: Look at Adventure #247 in grades 4.0, 3.5 and 2.5. Those grades are following the same path as the IH #181. 4.0 grade went $2051 low in 2019, then $2300 in 2020, then $2475 in 2021, then $3806 in 2022 and last sale of $2520 in 2023. I would define that $3806 as "off-trend." 3.5 grade went from a low of $1440 in 2019 to a high of $3550 (with all sales but one above $2400) in 2022 and the two sales in 2023 have been a $3500 early with the most recent down to $2160. So is this trending back up to $2400+ or down to $1440? ADV #247 in 2.5 went from a low of $898 in 2019 to a high of $2300 in 2021, followed by every single sale after that falling lower (4 sales from $1900 to $1620). This grade had a sale on Sept 26, 2021 of $1200 and on the 28th the sale of $2300. What was the driving factor for that? There may be "countless" books similar to ADV #247 because books like ADV #247 don't drive the market. They follow the market. There are plenty of non-Marvel, non-DC books that are following a trend similar to IH #181, like TMNT #1, Bone #1, Crow #1, and Comico Primer #2. Also, I still think we are in a bubble. Only one shoe has dropped.

Well, I can't really argue with logic like that. I'm not talking about GA books. I'm talking about key SA and newer books (like the IH #181 that started this thread) that have enough sales so they have enough data points. Amazing Spider-Man #50, #300, Batman #171, Marvel Spotlight #5, Ultimate Fallout #4, NYX #3, etc. The basic chart is slow and steady growth until 2018 or so, then bubble up and now prices are decreasing.

I just picked that one as a popular example. Just about every comic, in every grade on the GPA has a similar chart.

I don't think anyone here has argued that comic collecting is going the way of the dodo. Or stamp collecting. Or Lionel train collecting. I do not see it happening in the foreseeable future, but it could happen. A friend of mine had a stamp collection that was once appraised at $500K. When everything was eventually sold in 2017 the proceeds were $35K. That is the question: What is short-term? My opinion is that the entire bubble from about 2019 to now is a short term trend that will revert back to the mean. Some people seem to think only the current decrease in prices is the short term trend. It all depends on where you draw the line on IH #181 9.0. Choose your trend.

Yes and yes. The specific point I don't understand is that there seems to be no logical footing for some of this bidding. There are plenty of resources available to formulate a reasonable estimate of value, which I would say is about $1700+ based on the previous 7.5 sale. In my opinion the individuals bidding on the More Fun 45 somehow came up with what I would deem an UNreasonable estimate. They had to have some kind of estimate or else the bidding would have continued to climb. How did they come up with it? Why wouldn't they just make an offer to the owner of the 7.5 graded copy? This kind of bidding is irrational. If they are collectors irrational decisions sometimes happen. It just seems like there are so many examples of "WTF were they thinking" across the entire market.

I still don't understand this kind of bidding. This just sold a year ago. On Heritage. Somebody stop the insanity!

I don't know if my post reflects it, but I think it is a good idea, and I've told my daughter that if she needs to live with us after college, she can, and for as long as she wants.

Accidently posted this in another thread, meant to post it here. I've seen a few more articles like this one recently (though this one is a bit old, it is a bit more comprehensive): Nearly half of young adults in the US are living at home with their parents, and all that saved rent is fueling a luxury boom Since covid, it seems that about half of people aged 18-29, 26.6 million people, are living with their parents. That is a level not seen since the Great Depression. Some are seeing it as a long term living situation. This seems to be a continuation of a longer term trend. Multi-generational households were once more common in the United States. Census data shows that almost 25 percent of households were multi-generational in 1940 and that the percentage decreased to a low of about 12 percent in 1980. That number has since increased every census to 20% in 2018, with a big bump during the Great Recession. It could be that all of these children that moved back home during covid will never move out. A survey of these parents stated that THEY, not their kids, are paying for rent, groceries and even vacations for their children. So what are these children doing with their money? They aren't saving it. According to Morgan Stanley they are purchasing luxury goods. Another report said that Gen Y and Z accounted for all the growth of the luxury market in 2022. Comic books aren't luxury goods, but collecting comics is definitely a discretionary expenditure. It would be interesting to do a survey to see how many comic buyers are part of this trend, and if they are spending what would have been rent/mortgage/grocery money on comics instead.

I've seen a few more articles like this one recently (though this one is a bit old, it is a bit more comprehensive): Nearly half of young adults in the US are living at home with their parents, and all that saved rent is fueling a luxury boom Since covid, it seems that about half of people aged 18-29, 26.6 million people, are living with their parents. That is a level not seen since the Great Depression. Some are seeing it as a long term living situation. This seems to be a continuation of a longer term trend. Multi-generational households were once more common in the United States. Census data shows that almost 25 percent of households were multi-generational in 1940 and that the percentage decreased to a low of about 12 percent in 1980. That number has since increased every census to 20% in 2018, with a big bump during the Great Recession. It could be that all of these children that moved back home during covid will never move out. A survey of these parents stated that THEY, not their kids, are paying for rent, groceries and even vacations for their children. So what are these children doing with their money? They aren't saving it. According to Morgan Stanley they are purchasing luxury goods. Another report said that Gen Y and Z accounted for all the growth of the luxury market in 2022. Comic books aren't luxury goods, but collecting comics is definitely a discretionary expenditure. It would be interesting to do a survey to see how many comic buyers are part of this trend, and if they are spending what would have been rent/mortgage/grocery money on comics instead. I meant to post this in another thread, but since there is already a reply I'll leave it be.

So the 9.8 ended at $1500 and the 9.0 at $104. Last 9.8 sold for $927 in Oct 2022. Last 9.6 sold for $228 in Feb 2023. So more than 6.5X premium.

At least it is URs and not mine.

Is this the new paradigm?