mjoeyoung

All of these sales of recent "investment grade" purchases seem like people exiting the market to me. These may people cutting their losses to pursue other investments. Smart people don't take a million dollar loss unless they are forced to by circumstance, or they think they will lose more money if they hold on to the investment. How many regular Joes bought comics in the bubble that are now looking at similar "paper" losses? Does it make sense to sell your current books for a 50% loss to buy books that are still up 50 to 100% from 2018/19 prices?

I would be surprised. Didn't they just raise many of the valuations in the last guide?

Has the bubble burst? Some people are still "investing" or speculating... 24 books graded 9.0 and above on the census with 10 in 9.6. Last sale in grade was $160 in 2020. A 9.2 sold for $155 in May. I just don't know how you get from there to here. These books are rare in high grade, but are they that valuable? Gold Key values are up, but they are all over the place. Counterpoint with a Gold Key bubble-bursting sale of: Last sale in grade was in Dec 2022 for $1451.30 . In June 2022 a 9.4 sold for $1163. 19 graded 9.0 or above with 3 9.6s tied for highest grade. Rarer than the Doctor Solar above, but it took a huge price hit here.

No doubt, but I do not believe they are selling as much product as they expected to when they bought Lucasfilm. I think they were expecting to pump out at least one Star Wars movie a year (as they did from 2015-2019) with a corresponding boost in estimated merchandise sales of between $5-7B a movie (of which they may only get 5-10%). Though the merchandise sales for The Force Awakens were good, sales for Rogue One, were not, and retailers may have cut subsequent orders for the next movies. Now, they haven't released a movie since 2019, and there are none in production (3 in development). Some of the Disney Plus shows have been successful, but the streaming service lost $1.5B in the fourth quarter of 2022. I don't know if Baby Yoda sales can cover that.

Disney acquired Marvel in 2009 (this is much earlier than I thought), so they have reaped most of the success of the Marvel movies. Paid $4B and earned worldwide $22.6B. Star Wars is a different story. Paid $4B in 2012, movies have only earned $4.8B. Plus, they spent approximately $2B to build a Galaxy's Edge (Star Wars Land) in Florida and California and $350M to build the now closed Galactic Starcruiser hotel. They miscalculated that the new characters would be as beloved as Han Solo, etc. When I went on the main ride in the park (Rise of the Resistance), I could not help but think the ride would have been much scarier with Darth Vader instead of Kylo Ren as the antagonist.

My wife WISHES! That number represents books on my Watch List that have Sold. Books I've sold would be under the Dashboard. That number is 0. Like roaches, the books check in, but they don't check out. When you need a manual to understand and use a website, your UI probably needs some work.

Oops! Sorry about that @CGC Mike What is going on with the bottom left of this book? Underneath the KA-ZAR the Great.

Last sale was $720 in 2021. Last 8.5 sold for $274 in Dec 2022. Last 9.2 sold for $663 in Dec 2022. I don't see anything that would warrant such a price. A 9.4 did sell for $1800 in Jan 2022. I guess if that is your only price reference you might pay $1350 for this book. There are also not many sales of this book overall in the GPA, so maybe there was some FOMO?

They are still there. . They just move from Active Items to Sold Items. This is one feature that I think works well on CC.

That looks like your bid history. The Watch List is a drop down under the My Account button, to the right of Contact Us. For some reason it is not part of your Dashboard. Looks like this. I agree that the site is maddening though. The pages timing out is what I hate the most.

I have 1839 sold books on my watch list.

Beat me to it! This same book sold for $320K in 2021. The premium goes to Comic Connect right? So the seller would only net $292K here?

This one did not have a 15% premium, it also does not include the 3% fee for not paying with a check.

Comic Connect Incredible Hulk #1 8.0 Last 3 sales all in 2021 were $150K, $140K and $188K This exact book last sold in 2012 for $30K

Did they recently add more states that are subject to sales tax?

I knew there was something fishy about #132s numbers! Poor due diligence on my part. Your argument seems pretty reasonable to me. Issues #126 and #134 both have about 1500 graded copies. Could it be possible that there are up to 1100 copies of #130 out in the wild that haven't been graded yet? And if that were true, and since there are already 5 9.8s out of the 337 graded, that there MIGHT be a few more 9.8s found? It appears that CGC has graded almost 1000 copies of #134 since 2021. If Pluto gets hot maybe will see a similar amount of action on #130?

Really hard for me to understand some of these. It seems that people may be putting too much faith in the accuracy of the CGC census. The #244 is 7x the last Feb 2021 sales of $153. There are only 43 graded copies with 26 of them 9.4 and above. Yep, never going to be more than five 9.8s of this book. Thor #170 in a 9.6 sold for $1003. Previously, sold for $160 in 2018, $480 and then $720 in 2021. There are only 178 copies of this book graded, 2 9.8s and 17 9.6s. Meanwhile, Thor #158 9.6 sold for $281, last was $276, but it has 629 graded copies with 15 9.8s and 39 9.6s. I would bet that once #170 has as many graded copies as #158 that the amount of 9.8s and 9.6s is similar. Also, #158, which reprints Thor's origin, has always been worth a premium over a "run filler" like #170. Looking at the GPA, this still seems to hold true until grades of 9.2, with #158 selling for a price about twice #170s value. After that the values flip with #170 selling for more than the #158, with rarity trumping content. That feels like a possible paradigm shift. In a similar vein, Thor #130 9.6 sold for $1600, last sale $780 in 2021. Maybe this one was affected by the 2021 9.8 sale for $7200? Thor #132 9.6 sold for only $351, last sale $486 in May 2023. There are 357 graded copies of #130 with 5 9.8s and 18 9.6s. There are a whopping 968 graded copies of #132 with 80 9.8s and 191 9.6s. Is there a good argument to be made that, in the wild, issue #130 does not exist in a similar quantity and quality as #132? This is a book that sold 296,000 copies an issue. This seems similar to the example that @lou_fine was sharing. Odds are that more high grade copies of these "rare" books are going to be discovered.

Most of this thread has revolved around high grades, keys and graded comics because that is where the majority of the available data is. As others have stated we are missing a large portion of the market. My interests are too varied, and my abode too small, to purchase everything in plastic, so I do spend a bit of time researching and purchasing in this part of the market. I thought I would start sharing some of this data in attempt to offer a limited, but more well rounded perspective. mycomicshop.com offers past sales data on current and recent auction offerings in an accessible format, so most of my data is from them. You can also access this data for any past auction item that you have won. I will try to make a more comprehensive analysis in the future, but this one stood out last night. Phantom Stranger v2, #1, last night's sale is the first one for $28.00, followed by most recent sales, with the rest of the data divided by grade, with .5 higher and lower grades, and listed by date. All are raw unless stated. It looks like all 3 grades enjoyed a 50% to 100% increase in price in 2020-2021, with a 2022 high price of $85 for a CGC 6.0. Then the bubble pops with the $45, 5.0 sale in Nov 2022, (still up about 25% from 2019 prices). The March 2023 price looks like a continuation of 2021 prices, but it is followed by the latest price which is much closer to pre-2019 prices. So, in a span of 3 months you have a book selling for a near historical high, AND for a near historical low. Which sale is the outlier? Pretty tough to determine FMV at the moment.

"Since 1955, there has never been a quarter with average inflation above 4 percent and unemployment below 5 percent that was not followed by a recession within the next two years." "We therefore believe that the likelihood that the Fed achieves a soft landing in the economy is low." History Suggests a High Chance of Recession over the Next 24 Months from March of 2022. this time is DIFFERENT!

I think I know why that IH#180 sold for such a premium ($7100). I would think an "exceptional" spine would have no back cover showing. They paid more for that sticker ($3700) than the entire last sale of $3400!

There WAS the 9.6 that sold for $78K in September 2022. But, a 9.2 sold for $7245 in March 2022. Meanwhile, all the grades at 7.0 and below are sliding back to 2019 levels and 8.5 to 7.5 grades are treading water off 50% from their highs. The divergence continues.

Could be, could be. If he is in a new show are we to expect prices to go UP from here? At least I can read mine.

This is pretty much what I was thinking. I was hoping there was something I missed. I remember there was some talk about him possibly being in one of the Dr. Strange movies. As far as relevancy, this character is no Ghost Rider. He isn't even Squirrel Girl. It seems like the entire value of this book is riding on the rarity. If nobody cares about the character, why should it be worth very much, rare or not? This was a $400 book in 2013, then there are ZERO sales from 2014 until 2017, then it is a $3500 from 2018-20, and then in 2021 it is somehow a $20K book? I guess I should be stocking up on Amazing Adventures #18, as there are only eleven 9.8s of the first appearance of Killraven. Of course this book had 2 ridiculous sales in 2021 ($1500 and $2880), but zero since then. Strange Tales #169 is definitely a book to watch. I see no reason why the 9.6 grades are not going to continue falling in value until they reach 2016-18 levels ($900) at a minimum. If the 9.8s can continue to hold these price points at a 26X multiple, it will offer some proof that 9.8s have become permanently disconnected from the other grades. By one measure, with seventeen 9.8s and fifty-eight 9.6s the premium should really be closer to 3.4X.

Stop trying to make Brother Voodoo happen! Brother Voodoo is not going to happen! I thought the madness was over when the last 9.8 sold for "only" $14,400. Nope, this sale represents the second highest sale ever. Almost 12X the last 9.6 sale of $2K. Is he being lumped in with Ghost Rider and Moon Knight? As far as I can see this guy has headlined 2 series, consisting of a grand total of 10 issues in 50 years. The greatest trick that Brother Voodoo ever pulled was convincing the world that his first appearance was worth $20K.