DC#

Here is a high-level recap: the DC titles, which were only 7 out of the 30 selected titles, had a 2016 to 2021 CAGR of 21.2% (161% total increase) vs 33.0% (or 316% total increase) for the 23 Marvel titles. The magic of compounding...... Still a nice return for DC all in all - I wouldn't kick it out of bed.

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends. I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is. Here is the general breakdown: 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book. So total view is across 90 graded books. I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow). Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values. So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example. But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is. This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks. Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam). If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred. Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors) Silver Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0 X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5 Tales of Suspense 39 5.0/3.5/3/0 Fantastic Four 48 8.0/6.0/4.0 Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0 Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5 Spider-man 50 8.0/6.0/4.0 Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0 Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0 Flash 139 7.0/6.0/5.0 Bronze Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0 Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5 Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5 Spider-man 129 8.5/7.5/6.5 Tomb of Dracula 10 9.2/8.0/6.5 House of Secrets 92. 8.5/7.0/4.0 DC Comics Presents 26. 9.8/9.6/9.2 Batman 232. 8.5/7.5/6.0 Iron Man 55. 9.4/8.5/7.5 Star Wars 1. 9.8/9.6/9.0 Copper/Modern Spider-man 300. 9.8/9.4/9.0 Ultimate Fallout 4. 9.8/9.6/9.4 Batman Adventures 12 9.8/9.6/9.4 X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2 Young Avengers 1. 9.8/9.6/9.4 New Mutants 98. 9.8/9.6/9.4 Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4 Edge of Spider-verse 2. 9.8/9.6/9.4 Hulk 340. 9.8/9.6/9.4 Wolverine 1 (88). 9.8/9.6/9.4 Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA. The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct. The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019. Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.

I posted these a bit earlier on the thread but these were the results from the last Nov ComicLink and Hakes auctions. CL results were: 4.0 - $28.4k 2.5 - $17.3k Hakes 3.0 - $19.7k vs GPA sales of $26.4k on 10/24, $20k on 9/18, and $27.5k on 8/18 2.0 - $13.1 vs GPA sale of $14.4k on 9/19 and $14.3 on 8/1 Very few sales over past 12 months on GPA for this book in any grade (1 in 5.0, 1 in 4.5, 1 in 4.0, 8 in 3.0, 4 in 2.5, 7 in 2.0) so it seems like sold prices can bounce around quite a bit. If you look at a 3.0 it has had big swings between sales - assume the visual appeal had an influence on some of these numbers.

Either the buyer of the 5.5 on Comic Connect got a nice deal or the CLink 4.0 buyer above over-shot current value. The CC copy is a really good looking book.

Here is Session 2 of the Clink auction. May throw up a companions between some of books from CL and CC auction for fun later this weekend.

I believe the new $600 limit is still intact for eBay/PayPal in 2022 and different from the bank account inflow tracking that has been so controversial. https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2021-11-04-New-US-Tax-Reporting-Requirements-Your-Questions-Answered https://www.newsweek.com/what-zelle-cashapp-others-irs-reporting-600-payments-means-businesses-1650800

Here is an example of the roller coaster of what has always been a popular book that is a bit harder to come by in high grades (about 1500 in 9.2 or higher CGC). Hakes sold a 9.2 in Nov 2019 for $3.2k which was just before the start of the 2020 surge in prices. In June 2021 they sold another copy for $17.6 which appears to be the high water mark on gpa. ComicLink Dec 2021 just closed one at $8.9 which is below GPA last sale of 11k (Oct sale) and 90 day of 10k. What’s the real FMV over the next 12 months? Everyone has their own guess. But a +400% increase in a 18 month span is a good indication that prices might have gotten a bit frothy. But as Mr Sweet Lou says and the recaps I have been doing support - it is very much a mixed bag. There are certain books I probably won’t touch until correction goes deeper. On other things, I am buying in or upgrading if I feel pricing is “good enough” Even easier to get comfortable on upgrading if your cost base on first copy is so far below current market as it lowers your effective/net cost of the upgrade (new grade is 2k while old copy your selling is 1k for which you paid 200 - making your effective cost 1.2k for the higher grade).

And....here are some Session 1 results for the Dec ComicLink auction. Lots of stale GPA data, or no GPA data, as many of these books/grades don't seem to change hands that often - so this may be more fun than beneficial for discussing market trends (though still some high volume books mixed in). And though this is a Featured Auction - it still feels like there are fewer books than in earlier Featured auctions this year. And the comparison vs the Nov CL results show a bit more stability than earlier this year - at least within the ComicLink universe of sales. I also did not recap the Session 1A results from "the collection of Stan Lee's personal tailor." Most were signature copies and those that weren't seemed to generate a premium just because of the collection.

I have sort of been in this camp of thinking as well - though I do continue to think CL is showing more softness than Heritage or Ebay. I will say this Dec CL auction seems to have a much more "refined" selection of books for sale - lots and lots of books that are in the top 5-10% of blue label books. My cursory view is that there is more stability when comparing results to the Nov CL results - but there are also fewer comparable books since this auction is really the high-end goods. Will see what the GPA comps say when I get them populated.

Realized I forgot to post the final session results from the Nov CL Auction.....too much Turkey. Will be posting Session 1 of December CL this weekend.

Here were the Nov sales on ComicLink and Hakes I posted on another thread CL results were: 4.0 - $28.4k 2.5 - $17.3k Hakes 3.0 - $19.7k vs GPA sales of $26.4k on 10/24, $20k on 9/18, and $27.5k on 8/18 2.0 - $13.1 vs GPA sale of $14.4k on 9/19 and $14.3 on 8/1

ComicLink is one of the few auction houses that doesn’t use extended bidding time. My impression is that extended bidding time increases the final hammer price in most cases and you see fewer of the “outlier” results. Again - impression vs empirically proven

(Revised below )

Interested to know how others think about upgrades vs picking up other books not yet in your collection. If you could pick up 3-4 books that you “kinda want” (to maybe really want but just not to the level of “gotta have”) for the price of step function upgrading a key book in your portfolio - say from a 3.0 to a 6/7 or a 7 to a 9.6/ 9.8 - what do you do? I know this is probably too abstract without the emotion of actual title names. But this gets to a bit of how you think about the investment side of a collection even if you have no intent to liquidate any time soon.

I always remind myself that just because someone landed that $1500 book for $1200 doesn’t mean I could have gotten it for that had I been bidding too. And the irony of getting too good a deal is that it can be the reference point for the next buyer(s) to continue the downward trend.

While I finish up the session 4 stuff.... When you start looking across books like this you just see all sorts of things that "don't jive." Sometimes that is very strange Last Sale data from GPA. Often is is weirdness with the same book in the same auction. Here are two that just grabbed me in this last CL auction. First was DC Outsiders #1. What first grabbed me was the fact that in Session 2 a 9.8 sold for $159 (sent me to my long box to pull my copy) with 14 bids. Then another copy sold in Session 4 for $26 with 5 bids. So odd book to sell for $159 to start with but..... Even more odd was the back to back sales in Session 4 of a Silver Surfer #3. Both 7.0 both OW pages. The first sells for $802 and the second for $1355. Actually the $802 copy looked a little better in my eyes. That is a huge difference for books that closed seconds apart

I wish there was a more interesting answer - but this is an excel file and a lot of time scrolling ComicLink and GPA. I have some session 4 stuff captured I will try to post this weekend.

Opps….brain fart. Crossing my books up tonight, Fixed and thanks.

Bump for new book. Thread closes again on Thursday night

Last bump - will close down the last two books tomorrow.

Bought a $1.5k book in November- great transaction. Great communication and flawlessly packed for shipping. Recommended.

Session 3. This group down 9.6% from GPA last sale.

Sold

Spectacular Spider-man #64 - first Cloak and Dagger. CGC 9.4 White Pages. 90 day is $160 with last sale of $171. Offered here for $140.

Amazing Spider-man #194 Newsstand edition - first Black Cat. CGC 9.0 White Pages. 90 Day is $603 with last sale of $580. Closed