CGC 9.4 copy of AA #16?!

[G.A.tor]

folks, this sale has obviously been in the works since long before the clink coverless action, or the heritage action 7, those sales had no bearing on this whatsoever....and, given that john turned down an 850K sale year with the book raw, surely one can "assume" that this sale will/has happened close to or even north of 7 figures...

that said, until it is actually reported, it is fun to speculate! (and that is all my post is, speculation)

 

off to mega con!

but, great to get to see a scan!

[TeddieMercede]

Considering the number of MH Adventures and other books Geppi is letting go of youd think it makes sense that maybe he is trying to gather up funds for a book like this.

The only thing geppi builds cash for is to pay his ballplayers

I wish he'd raise some to keep paying his freelancers.

 

well thats only because we are in a recession.

 

well, if you believe that than I quess you believe geppi needs to sell books to build cash..

Gemstone ain't makin' him rich anymore...

 

so than he will just have to sell more books

 

Its a far cry from having to sell books to directly fund a purchase and to justify one. Wealthy people do this on a daily basis which is 1- in many instances how they became rich and 2- stay so affluent. I beg to differ that spending close to 1 million dollars will not at least make him think about it for a couple seconds if that is indeed the selling price. Everyone knows how influential and well off Geppi is, they also know he has been unloading a lot of books recently. I guess I am wrong since you know him on a personal level.

 

Like Tim said he also is a minority owner of the Orioles with a couple other parties, Peter Angelos of Asbestos fame is the majority owner of the team. Yes Diamond Distributors is nothing to scoff at.

[rob_react]

The thing is, reading this thread, the number appears to be so high as to be perverse. I've complained that my entire comics value framework is screwed up because of the recent sales. This thing? This thing has basically knocked me on my .

Not really Rob. The reason this sale (if the reported price is true) is so much higher than any other reported sale is that unlike other hobbies (stamps, baseball cards), none of the very top books have ever come up for sale publicly, and they all last changed hands 15-25 years ago. If the MH Action 1 had publicly traded hands as frequently as the Honus Wagner baseball card, the standard would be measured in millions and $800K for a "lesser" GA key would just plug right into the overall price heirarchy.

 

It's not that this sale is so much higher than any other sale. It's the absolute price and the absolute prices paid for other books recently. Pretty much every price I've entered into the list recently has been well over a reasonable estimate. Starting with he two amazing Fantasy 15s for over 200k, the absolute landscape has basically shot upward. Earthquake style.

 

As we discussed a few weeks ago when talking about the 850k offer, I didn't have this book in my top 15 when I did the top ten list and at the time the cut-off for that was around 400k. And it's not like I did that list in a vacuum, I solicited advice and opinions form anyone who would give it. So now it's the first million dollar book? If it is, then I have to re-evaluate books 3 through infinity, because the non-Dentist Action #1 and the best non-Dentist Tec 27 were right around that number (in my head.) Now, if one of those books were to come up for sale there's no way on Earth they sell for less than the first freakin' Alan Scott appearance. So what are those worth now? 1.5? 2? What do I peg the Church Action 1 at? 5? It's all kinds of crazy.

[tth2]

It's not that this sale is so much higher than any other sale. It's the absolute price and the absolute prices paid for other books recently. Pretty much every price I've entered into the list recently has been well over a reasonable estimate. Starting with he two amazing Fantasy 15s for over 200k, the absolute landscape has basically shot upward. Earthquake style.

Maybe comics are just starting to catch up with some other pop culture collectibles. I`ve always viewed AF 15 as the comic equivalent of the Mickey Mantle rookie card. Not really hard to find in any way, or close to the most historically significant, but demand is through the roof because of a particular emotional attachment that collectors have with that character/ball player. I believe top Mickey Mantle cards have gone for more than $200K, so why not top AF 15s?

 

Extrapolating from that, should the top comics go for more than the top baseball card? Sure, why not? Action 1 and Tec 27 are iconic books with iconic characters that are known all around the world, right up there with Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. Everyone knew who Dwight Howard was emulating when he unveiled a shirt with a "S" and wore a red cape at the NBA dunk contest. Honus Wagner, while known to all real baseball fans, is hardly a household name. The value of that card is driven purely by scarcity. If the most valuable baseball card were a Babe Ruth, I could see it having the same sort of iconic value (except of course for most of the non-American world who could care less about baseball).

 

[The Black Hand ®]

I'm wondering if there will come a day when the average silver age key and early issues will sell for more than GA issues? People do tend to forget, WWI is a distant memory and maybe someday, WWII will be one after the boomers pass or stop caring about what their parents had to endure to keep us safe.

[ciorac]

According to John from my discussion with him at last years Chicago Con, he feels very strongly that the MC 1 is a 9.8 and would be better if not for the Mile High penciling(I don't know if CGC hits for that, I would think not). Lets just say that its a 9.6/9.4 at that level with the significance of being a Church book, and the grade(He says never been touched, I tend to believe him) since he ponied up over 250K 5 years ago for the Allentowne CAP 1 in 9.6, to replace the touched Church copy. That it would be more valuable than the AA 16, at least in theory. I suppose a book is only worth what will be paid for it at that time, but having one of the big three in that grade be it 9.4, 9.6, or 9.8? would seem to have a advantage of being more sought after.

I think the grade of the MH MC 1 is not that important, so long as it reaches the 9.4/NM mark. It`s more the fact that it`s likely the best copy in existence that would drive its value. I really don`t think its price would change that much whether it were a 9.4, 9.6 or 9.8. And yes, I think it would be the 3rd most valuable book in existence, behind the MH Action 1 and AT Detective 27.

 

Thanks for reminding us about the AT Cap #1. If that could sell for $260K years ago, long before this most recent explosion in prices, what would it sell for today, and does $800K (or more) for a AA 16 look more reasonable in that context?

 

Tim,

 

You are making an enormous amount of sense in this thread. Stop it and go back to being surly. I'm not sure how to take it....

 

[ciorac]

I'm wondering if there will come a day when the average silver age key and early issues will sell for more than GA issues? People do tend to forget, WWI is a distant memory and maybe someday, WWII will be one after the boomers pass or stop caring about what their parents had to endure to keep us safe.

 

Perhaps. Of course I hope not. But recent GA interest seems to indicate that this cycle has now been lengthened.

 

However, Superman will always be Superman, and Batman will always be Batman. I don't see Iron Man ever reaching that lofty status. Not in 10, 20, or even 50 more years.

[bluechip]

According to John from my discussion with him at last years Chicago Con, he feels very strongly that the MC 1 is a 9.8 and would be better if not for the Mile High penciling(I don't know if CGC hits for that, I would think not).

 

I think the grade of the MH MC 1 is not that important, so long as it reaches the 9.4/NM mark. It`s more the fact that it`s likely the best copy in existence that would drive its value. I really don`t think its price would change that much whether it were a 9.4, 9.6 or 9.8. And yes, I think it would be the 3rd most valuable book in existence, behind the MH Action 1 and AT Detective 27.

 

 

Agree that Marvel 1 is #3 book because it is quickly understood as the first Marvel comic, so it has some of the cachet of the whole Marvel line.

 

[bluechip]

It's not that this sale is so much higher than any other sale. It's the absolute price and the absolute prices paid for other books recently. Pretty much every price I've entered into the list recently has been well over a reasonable estimate. Starting with he two amazing Fantasy 15s for over 200k, the absolute landscape has basically shot upward. Earthquake style.

Maybe comics are just starting to catch up with some other pop culture collectibles. I`ve always viewed AF 15 as the comic equivalent of the Mickey Mantle rookie card. Not really hard to find in any way, or close to the most historically significant, but demand is through the roof because of a particular emotional attachment that collectors have with that character/ball player. I believe top Mickey Mantle cards have gone for more than $200K, so why not top AF 15s?

 

Extrapolating from that, should the top comics go for more than the top baseball card? Sure, why not? Action 1 and Tec 27 are iconic books with iconic characters that are known all around the world, right up there with Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. Everyone knew who Dwight Howard was emulating when he unveiled a shirt with a "S" and wore a red cape at the NBA dunk contest. Honus Wagner, while known to all real baseball fans, is hardly a household name. The value of that card is driven purely by scarcity. If the most valuable baseball card were a Babe Ruth, I could see it having the same sort of iconic value (except of course for most of the non-American world who could care less about baseball).

 

The Honus Wagner card isn't even all that scarce compared to others people would want. It got a rep early on when people tried to collect the whole set and had trouble find that card (and not just that card, but also the Nap Lajoie card), so the story got played up in the papers, etc. One of the very earliest widely publicized stories about collectibles. I think collectors like it because the story ties right into collecting, but its value is mostly an anomaly.

 

The Mickey and Donald analogy is accurate, except that Mickey and Donald are household names that have been creatively stagnant for some time. Disney's creative infrastructure is such that it's not likely any adults will be voluntarily watching new mickey and donald materials anytime soon.

 

But, basically agree that comics still have a ways to go before the value of their biggest big ticket collectibles catches up with the equivalent value of collectibles in other fields (baseball, movies, rock, etc.) People go nuts on this board about the earthquake like rise in prices. But that's mostly true only if you compare it to the guide itself, which has doggedly refused to acknowledge the prices received on the biggest items and to reflect them in the valuations.

 

People talk about items going for ten or twenty times guide value but on many big items the guide value itself has not BUDGED more than one percent a year over the past ten years. Does that mean the book has increased suddenly in value or that it's been increasing all along and the guide simply hasn't acknowledged it?

 

 

 

[batman_fan]

Considering the number of MH Adventures and other books Geppi is letting go of youd think it makes sense that maybe he is trying to gather up funds for a book like this.

 

those weren't Geppi's

[lou_fine]

Its just great to finally see a MIle High Key in a slab that doesnt say very small color touch or very small amount of glue[ This book is one of a kind to be sure..What also is sure is that it is literally going to blow away the record for most valuable comicbook ever sold. It is going to blow the top off the record.

Books this huge usually sell privatly so I wouldnt be surprised.

 

Yes, you should never underestimate the impact of the pure clean blue label here! (thumbs u

 

How many other of the Church DC keys will be able to achieve this? The Adventure #40 and the MF 52 have already failed this test and I can't remember what happened with the Flash #1.

 

Yes, these types of books generally sell through private transactions. Any bets that they would not be able to generate this kind of price in an auction format as you would need two potential buyers in order to bid it up to this kind of dollars.

 

True market price for items of extreme rarity can sometimes be better determined in private between the buyer and seller themselves, as opposed to a public auction format between two bidders.

[Aman619]

Id rather pony up 2 million for the Action1 than 800K for the AA16. Even 3 million... if I had it.

It`s not an either/or proposition. You`re making it sound like it`s important to hoard your dollars because just maybe the MH Action 1 will suddenly appear for sale and you`ll be bummed because you blew $800K on the AA 16 and thus no longer have enough funds to buy the Action 1.

 

Passing up on the AA 16 doesn`t mean you`re going to get an opportunity to buy the Action 1. All it means is that you`ll have passed up on the AA 16. Just because Action 1 might be a worthier deal at $2 million doesn`t mean that the AA 16 isn`t a good deal at $800K.

 

I usually understand your reasoning, even if I don`t always reach the same conclusion as you, but I`m really having a hard time following you here.

 

I know! here you really missed my meaning entirely.

 

I wasnt talking about saving 800 to get to 2M in case Dave called me.... I wasnt mixing the 2 books together except to say that All I meant was that 800K is a lot of scratch, and 2M is 2.5 as much, or, a lot MORE scratch to spend on a comicbook. But, Id feel more comfortable spending 2.5 times as much for the better book than spending so much less on a far less "special" piece of American history. Id sleep better having spread my risk on a wider claim to posterity and history; Superman's worldwide fame and awareness and marketing and licensing value as well cultural touchstone in politics, art, sociology and even, of late, religious significance over the first appearance of merely the Golden Age GL, the 12th(?) superhero on the scene which had it never happened would not have been missed by any of the areas touched on by the Big Blue Boy Scout. And Id be getting the Best copy too! (NOT that it will be for sale in my lifetime so believe me Im not sitting by the phone...)

 

Clearer? even if you stll dont agree with me?.

 

This is based entirely on my personal metrics of not overpaying for comics.... in the short AND moreso, long term.

[Aman619]

I think the grade of the MH MC 1 is not that important, so long as it reaches the 9.4/NM mark. It`s more the fact that it`s likely the best copy in existence that would drive its value. I really don`t think its price would change that much whether it were a 9.4, 9.6 or 9.8.

 

 

I always agree with this logic. Once you are at 9.4 and the best copy the extra freakishness of a 9.6 and 9.8 dont matter to me at all. That only comes into lay if there are a bunch of other 9.0 plus copies available.

[Aman619]

Its just great to finally see a MIle High Key in a slab that doesnt say very small color touch or very small amount of glue[ This book is one of a kind to be sure..What also is sure is that it is literally going to blow away the record for most valuable comicbook ever sold. It is going to blow the top off the record.

Books this huge usually sell privatly so I wouldnt be surprised.

 

Yes, you should never underestimate the impact of the pure clean blue label here! (thumbs u

 

How many other of the Church DC keys will be able to achieve this? The Adventure #40 and the MF 52 have already failed this test and I can't remember what happened with the Flash #1.

 

Yes, these types of books generally sell through private transactions. Any bets that they would not be able to generate this kind of price in an auction format as you would need two potential buyers in order to bid it up to this kind of dollars.

 

True market price for items of extreme rarity can sometimes be better determined in private between the buyer and seller themselves, as opposed to a public auction format between two bidders.

 

 

yeah. there's a lot to be said about the different pressures involved in each method of sale. At auction its the fear of the anonymous higher bidder who wants it as much or more than you do. But, in a private sale, you are faced with a book dangled in front of you for a finite window of time, at an uncomfortable and usually inflexible(!) price --- sprinkled with the fear of PASSING on the book only to let someone else down the line grab it instead of you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[batman_fan]

It's not that this sale is so much higher than any other sale. It's the absolute price and the absolute prices paid for other books recently. Pretty much every price I've entered into the list recently has been well over a reasonable estimate. Starting with he two amazing Fantasy 15s for over 200k, the absolute landscape has basically shot upward. Earthquake style.

Maybe comics are just starting to catch up with some other pop culture collectibles. I`ve always viewed AF 15 as the comic equivalent of the Mickey Mantle rookie card. Not really hard to find in any way, or close to the most historically significant, but demand is through the roof because of a particular emotional attachment that collectors have with that character/ball player. I believe top Mickey Mantle cards have gone for more than $200K, so why not top AF 15s?

 

Extrapolating from that, should the top comics go for more than the top baseball card? Sure, why not? Action 1 and Tec 27 are iconic books with iconic characters that are known all around the world, right up there with Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. Everyone knew who Dwight Howard was emulating when he unveiled a shirt with a "S" and wore a red cape at the NBA dunk contest. Honus Wagner, while known to all real baseball fans, is hardly a household name. The value of that card is driven purely by scarcity. If the most valuable baseball card were a Babe Ruth, I could see it having the same sort of iconic value (except of course for most of the non-American world who could care less about baseball).

 

The Honus Wagner card isn't even all that scarce compared to others people would want. It got a rep early on when people tried to collect the whole set and had trouble find that card (and not just that card, but also the Nap Lajoie card), so the story got played up in the papers, etc. One of the very earliest widely publicized stories about collectibles. I think collectors like it because the story ties right into collecting, but its value is mostly an anomaly.

 

The Mickey and Donald analogy is accurate, except that Mickey and Donald are household names that have been creatively stagnant for some time. Disney's creative infrastructure is such that it's not likely any adults will be voluntarily watching new mickey and donald materials anytime soon.

 

But, basically agree that comics still have a ways to go before the value of their biggest big ticket collectibles catches up with the equivalent value of collectibles in other fields (baseball, movies, rock, etc.) People go nuts on this board about the earthquake like rise in prices. But that's mostly true only if you compare it to the guide itself, which has doggedly refused to acknowledge the prices received on the biggest items and to reflect them in the valuations.

 

People talk about items going for ten or twenty times guide value but on many big items the guide value itself has not BUDGED more than one percent a year over the past ten years. Does that mean the book has increased suddenly in value or that it's been increasing all along and the guide simply hasn't acknowledged it?

 

 

 

I like your statement about the guide being out of date on prices, but I would hope they would fix them in both directions. I think Keys and classic covers in general are under priced in the guide, but the low to mid grade stuff is almost always had under guide and in many cases by a large margin.

[Aman619]

Bob's dammed when he does and dammed when he doesnt. Even in the face of no sales on the keys in grade he is expected to print prices that match our expected increases in values. But I agree that talking multiples of Guide is getting a bit passe.

[lou_fine]

I'm wondering if there will come a day when the average silver age key and early issues will sell for more than GA issues? People do tend to forget, WWI is a distant memory and maybe someday, WWII will be one after the boomers pass or stop caring about what their parents had to endure to keep us safe.

 

I strongly doubt this will ever happen.

 

I should qualify my answer, however, as it really depends on exactly what books you are talking about. When most collectors make this type of comment, they always seem to be referring to Spidey against ALL of the other GA books.

 

A more accurate comparison is to have the Tier 1 GA books against the Tier 1 SA books as you should always compare apples to apples. It would not make any sense to compare a Tier 1 SA book to a Tier 2 or Tier 3 GA book.

 

In this sense, I would always see Spidey trailing behind both Supes and Batman. Of course, I would also expect Spidey to always be safely ahead of the GA Catman books. Likewise though, I would never ever expect to see the SA Fatman, the Flying Fury series of books to ever surpass the Catman GA run.

[Straw-Man]

Considering the number of MH Adventures and other books Geppi is letting go of youd think it makes sense that maybe he is trying to gather up funds for a book like this.

 

Geppi needs to sell books to build cash to buy this book? .

Like Mel gibson owns Malibu, Geppi owns Baltimore. The only thing geppi builds cash for is to pay his ballplayers

Geppi is just a small minority owner of the Orioles. Peter DeAngelos is the "real" owner.

 

when did he add "de" to his name?

[Aman619]

as for Honus's card... isnt most of the allure and value for that one particular Mint specimen that was actually cut out of an uncut sheet? In that case its the condition of that one "perfect" mythically rare one-of-a-kind card that fuels its soaring value. And, when it sells for a million bucks, even the ratty copies go or a lot by osmosis.

[Aman619]

I'm wondering if there will come a day when the average silver age key and early issues will sell for more than GA issues? People do tend to forget, WWI is a distant memory and maybe someday, WWII will be one after the boomers pass or stop caring about what their parents had to endure to keep us safe.

 

I strongly doubt this will ever happen.

 

I should qualify my answer, however, as it really depends on exactly what books you are talking about. When most collectors make this type of comment, they always seem to be referring to Spidey against ALL of the other GA books.

 

A more accurate comparison is to have the Tier 1 GA books against the Tier 1 SA books as you should always compare apples to apples. It would not make any sense to compare a Tier 1 SA book to a Tier 2 or Tier 3 GA book.

 

In this sense, I would always see Spidey trailing behind both Supes and Batman. Of course, I would also expect Spidey to always be safely ahead of the GA Catman books. Likewise though, I would never ever expect to see the SA Fatman, the Flying Fury series of books to ever surpass the Catman GA run.

 

I agree with both of you. WIth the GA books now 70 years old, dont forget that the SA are already 50 years old! Not such a huge difference in age considering there have been at least 2 generations since they came along. Both Ages are solidly Antiques in age at this point.

 

I definitely se a reordering of the values of GA and SA, a comingling of the most in demand issues. AF15 and FF1 XMen1 continuing to rise against many of the traditionally most valuable GA comics. And TOS39, JIM83 etc each taking a spot further down the line but still surpassing many of their elders in time.