Showcase #4

[adamstrange]

 Originally Posted By: FFB

I have heard hushed whispers about the quality of your books, and rumblings that even your superb scan colors don't really do them justice. It's better that I have never seen them in person, as I would likely convulse uncontrollably.

I've seen some of his books in person. Eh.

 

I'll take all of your books that look like mine at 50% off. I'll be doing you a favor.

[tth2]

I'll take all of your books that look like mine at 50% off. I'll be doing you a favor.

It really was too bad that I had no more space in my luggage to bring any extra books to SD Con a few years ago. I would love to have shown you some of the Western Penns.

[paperheart]

is the 9.4 going to be a no reserve auction? cause if not, I dont see it changing hands for less than 150 or more. maybe much more.

 

can't believe this would be a no reserve auction.

[tth2]

I disagree. I see a great softness to Showcase 4... It just doesnt get the juices flowing like other books like it. Maybe because it moved so high in Overstreet over the years. Maybe because theres a 9.6, 9.4 9.2 on down that stay up for sale and never sell for what they "are worth".

 

Great book. Important as heck... but soft. Id hesitate before putting 5K into a copy. Only to have a copy, but not expecting a profit in the short term... or near long term either.

totally agree

[tth2]

My gut feeling is that if you bought a copy for $5K ten years ago it would be worth $5K now, and $5K in ten years. I think that speaks to the general trends of mid-low grade DC SA books. You could make the same analogy for Showcase 22, B&B 28, etc in VG. While that was true for marvel SA, it's starting to become less true (at least with AF 15, etc).

totally agree

[tth2]

By setting the market, I guess I meant the ceiling price. If it goes off at 130-150, you are definitely setting pretty for at least 100K.

Sitting pretty? I think he'd be sitting FOREVER at $100K. Whatever a 9.4 copy sells for, a 9.2 copy would most likely be worth approximately half. It's just the way of the ultra-HG SA DC market.

[frankiecastle]

By setting the market, I guess I meant the ceiling price. If it goes off at 130-150, you are definitely setting pretty for at least 100K.

Sitting pretty? I think he'd be sitting FOREVER at $100K. Whatever a 9.4 copy sells for, a 9.2 copy would most likely be worth approximately half. It's just the way of the ultra-HG SA DC market.

 

totally agree.

[tth2]

I should also add that I don't think any "CGC 9.2/9.4/9.6 formula" typical of lower-value comics will apply to these books.

I think it most definitely applies to these books. Or if not strict 50% less, than 40% or so. Look at the public JLA 1 sales to see the relationship between 9.2, 9.4 and 9.6, or other keys such as Flash 123.

[tth2]

is the 9.4 going to be a no reserve auction? cause if not, I dont see it changing hands for less than 150 or more. maybe much more.

 

can't believe this would be a no reserve auction.

Given that it's Metro's (or Steve's) own copy, the chances of this book being auctioned with no reserve are less than zero.

 

Steve, I double dare ya!

[adamstrange]

is the 9.4 going to be a no reserve auction? cause if not, I dont see it changing hands for less than 150 or more. maybe much more.

 

can't believe this would be a no reserve auction.

Given that it's Metro's (or Steve's) own copy, the chances of this book being auctioned with no reserve are less than zero.

 

Steve, I double dare ya!

 

I'm not sure that'll be enough, Tim.

 

You might need to double dog dare.

[adamstrange]

I'll take all of your books that look like mine at 50% off. I'll be doing you a favor.

It really was too bad that I had no more space in my luggage to bring any extra books to SD Con a few years ago. I would love to have shown you some of the Western Penns.

 

You can still do that on your next visit.

 

Oh wait, you sold them.

 

Though I seem to recall some telling you that there were more Flash's out there and you just needed to have a little more patience.

[FFB]

I should also add that I don't think any "CGC 9.2/9.4/9.6 formula" typical of lower-value comics will apply to these books.

I think it most definitely applies to these books. Or if not strict 50% less, than 40% or so. Look at the public JLA 1 sales to see the relationship between 9.2, 9.4 and 9.6, or other keys such as Flash 123.

 

Tim,

 

I don't think you and I are disagreeing about this. JLA 1 sales support the point I was making about price compression at the higher dollar amounts. In 2005, JLA 1 in 9.4 did not sell for double the last 9.2 sale in 2004, or anywhere near it. (In fact, the difference between the 9.4 and the 9.2 was less than 10%, and the 9.4 sold a year and a half later than the 9.2.) Even the most recent sale of the 9.4 was only about 30% more than the 9.2 sold for four years ago.

 

Flash #123 seems to follow more of the 9.2/9.4/9.6 formula, but it is a substantially lower value book than the Showcase #4. Low-five-figure books tend not to see as much price compression in the higher grades as the high--five-figure or six-figure books. That's anecdotal and not statistical, but it is the general impression I have after watching the market for a while.

[tth2]

JLA 1 sales support the point I was making about price compression at the higher dollar amounts. In 2005, JLA 1 in 9.4 did not sell for double the last 9.2 sale in 2004, or anywhere near it. (In fact, the difference between the 9.4 and the 9.2 was less than 10%, and the 9.4 sold a year and a half later than the 9.2.)

Scott, that's not a good example because they were actually the same book. The 9.4 was the cracked and resubbed 9.2 copy, and I think many people were aware of this. You can look at that particular transaction two ways: that particular 9.2 went for way too high (I believe Josh was the buyer) because he knew it would be a great resub candidate, and/or the 9.4 went for way too low because people knew it was the same book in a new higher label. I believe there were 2 9.2 sales (not in GPA, as far as I know) before that that were in the low teens. So if we view the Toth 9.4 JLA 1 as the first "real" public sale, then it went for almost $36K, which is more than double what the 9.2s went for previously (notwithstanding the 4 year gap).

 

Even if that analysis isn't convincing, the 9.6 JLA 1 just sold through Pedigree for $75K, which is a bit more than double the price of the Toth 9.4 JLA 1, so the 2X multiple holds up for 9.4-9.6. And I doubt that a 9.2 JLA 1 would break $20K today, thus more or less reestablishing a 2X multiple between 9.2 and 9.4.

 

[tth2]

I'll take all of your books that look like mine at 50% off. I'll be doing you a favor.

It really was too bad that I had no more space in my luggage to bring any extra books to SD Con a few years ago. I would love to have shown you some of the Western Penns.

 

You can still do that on your next visit.

 

Oh wait, you sold them.

 

Though I seem to recall some telling you that there were more Flash's out there and you just needed to have a little more patience.

Doesn't matter, I couldn't have afforded them when they started coming out anyways. It was getting beaten out on the 9.4 Flash 125 that put me into a depression, remember?

 

I'd also like to think that it was the excitement and prices generated by the sale of my books that started pulling more books out of the woodworks, although it's difficult to say whether David Toth was influenced by any of this market activity or he had just decided it was time to sell.

 

Let's see if any of the crazy prices paid for Toth's JLAs or Superman books create a bumper crop of supply.

 

 

[FFB]

JLA 1 sales support the point I was making about price compression at the higher dollar amounts. In 2005, JLA 1 in 9.4 did not sell for double the last 9.2 sale in 2004, or anywhere near it. (In fact, the difference between the 9.4 and the 9.2 was less than 10%, and the 9.4 sold a year and a half later than the 9.2.)

Scott, that's not a good example because they were actually the same book. The 9.4 was the cracked and resubbed 9.2 copy, and I think many people were aware of this. You can look at that particular transaction two ways: that particular 9.2 went for way too high (I believe Josh was the buyer) because he knew it would be a great resub candidate, and/or the 9.4 went for way too low because people knew it was the same book in a new higher label. I believe there were 2 9.2 sales (not in GPA, as far as I know) before that that were in the low teens. So if we view the Toth 9.4 JLA 1 as the first "real" public sale, then it went for almost $36K, which is more than double what the 9.2s went for previously (notwithstanding the 4 year gap).

 

Even if that analysis isn't convincing, the 9.6 JLA 1 just sold through Pedigree for $75K, which is a bit more than double the price of the Toth 9.4 JLA 1, so the 2X multiple holds up for 9.4-9.6. And I doubt that a 9.2 JLA 1 would break $20K today, thus more or less reestablishing a 2X multiple between 9.2 and 9.4.

 

Ah, well that puts a whole different paint job on things. (Said in my best "Jerky Boys" accent.)

 

I didn't know about the crack and resub. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the 9.4 sells for, if it sells at all.

[adamstrange]

I'll take all of your books that look like mine at 50% off. I'll be doing you a favor.

It really was too bad that I had no more space in my luggage to bring any extra books to SD Con a few years ago. I would love to have shown you some of the Western Penns.

 

You can still do that on your next visit.

 

Oh wait, you sold them.

 

Though I seem to recall some telling you that there were more Flash's out there and you just needed to have a little more patience.

Doesn't matter, I couldn't have afforded them when they started coming out anyways. It was getting beaten out on the 9.4 Flash 125 that put me into a depression, remember?

 

I'd also like to think that it was the excitement and prices generated by the sale of my books that started pulling more books out of the woodworks, although it's difficult to say whether David Toth was influenced by any of this market activity or he had just decided it was time to sell.

 

Let's see if any of the crazy prices paid for Toth's JLAs or Superman books create a bumper crop of supply.

 

 

Toth was said to be aware of the basic value of the books per Overstreet but not about the likely value that would result from a well-publicized auction. I'm sure some of the other copies came to the market because of the sale of your books.

[tth2]

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the 9.4 sells for, if it sells at all.

I will be very surprised if the book sells.

[paperheart]

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the 9.4 sells for, if it sells at all.

I will be very surprised if the book sells.

 

i would be very surprised if the book doesn't hit a price that will confirm what steve has said he thinks it's worth. oh, and it won't hit reserve.

[metropoliscomics]

Saw that a CGC 4.0 brought $4,250 on eBay the other day. That a bit over 150% of guide.

 

S

[Aman619]

good luck with the book.