What's your opinion? A comic book bubble?

[JazzMan]

As a collector I sometimes think back on the 90's boom of baseball cards and how everything seemed to be centered around it and rookie cards were all the craze. I recently went to a show where I sold some books but there were a ton of baseball cards for sale but it seemed that they didn't move at all.

 

This brought to mind the meteoric rise of some key issues in the past few years, such as AF15, Hulk 181, etc. And it looks similar to the craze that happened in the 90's with cards.

 

So what's you opinion? Is comic book collecting safe from a "bubble" like cards or are we also doomed to repeat the collector's history?

[THE_BEYONDER]

It's not merely a bubble...it's a balloon. How long it will last is anyone's guess.....

[scottish]

Everything is cyclical IMHO. Similar to the current housing market (though the banks actually did that to themselves to a large degree). If a correction is due and I'm not saying there is - then it'll happen.

[Ogami]

I think there are multiple bubbles in play right now.

 

At least three-

 

High grade CGC copies, especially non-keys. (for the label chasers)

 

Keys in any grade- there may not be enough demand in the market (number of collectors) to fill the supply.

 

Runs- this logically follows from the keys. If the keys fall, the runs will follow.

 

just my opinion.

[NewWorldOrder]

Wow an actual intelligent thread.

 

thank god for you Jazz-Man!

 

 

To answer your question I don't think the bubble will burst anytime soon. I think buying a book like AF 15 right now is a bad decision because I think that bubble will burst on that in terms of sustaining the increase in value over the short-term.

 

HG Raw/CGC will always be in demand and with the advent of all the movies and how people look at superheroes as an escape for mundane everyday life, I think our hobby will be good for years to come.

 

I always say you don't have to worry about Spider-man batting .300, just that you have a good writer/artists on the book.

 

I think with sports cards people like myself woke up and realized that we are collecting pictures of sports players and they are not even hot naked girls.

So whats fun about collecting sports cards??? Not a god darn thing!

[awe4one]

Depends on the Age...

 

We've already seen burst bubbles the last couple of years...probably none so clearly that the Bronze horror genre. A couple yers ago it was as hot as any comics genre with HG CGC copies selling for big bucks. Now...not so hot and apparent bargains if you compare to historical highs (which don't make them bargains really at all)...

 

I think there a major correction coming in the late Silver/Bronze HG CGC market. Just too many copies out there to sustain current prices...with more coming to market each day...

 

Jim

[JazzMan]

 

Good points, so far, however with the supply already set and only decreasing instead of increasing for keys, runs, HG, etc., do you guys think that our hobby is as susceptable to the marketplace in consideration that, unlike housing, our demand comes from a worldwide market and with the variations in currency, it may lessen the ultimate effects?

[scottish]

 

Good points, so far, however with the supply already set and only decreasing instead of increasing for keys, runs, HG, etc., do you guys think that our hobby is as susceptable to the marketplace in consideration that, unlike housing, our demand comes from a worldwide market and with the variations in currency, it may lessen the ultimate effects?

 

I would offer that housing IS a worldwide market. MANY investment banks overseas where hit (and still are) by the sub-prime market. Credit is tight every where - not just in the US. Just read recently that the Dutch government is giving HSBC a 10 billion rescue.

 

I don't think variations in currency will have THAT big of an impact. I think the concern will be sustaining an active collecting community. I think the majority of board members and current collectors remember reading our books in the 50s, 60s, 70s (and some in the 80s). We didn't have 250 TV channels to watch, Playstations, X-boxes, etc. Our entertainment was much more limited than the kids born in the late 80s, 90s and today. I think this has been mentioned before.

 

Sure the movies being produced are giving a big boost to collecting right now, but they'll only last so long. How many Spider-man movies can they make and keep younger people coming back?

[thirdgreenham]

Hard to say with certainty where this is all heading. I see common material being close to worthless and will take a long long long time to come back. This includes CGC 9.8 modern issues. I see everything having a correction, but how big and for how long. I see the US dollar tanking to levels we have never seen before. I see other currencies following. I see an overwhelming lack of faith in paper money from the majority of people out there. I see trading and bartering coming to the forefront. Objects that are perceived as having value. Rare comic books may hold their value as long as people still attribute value to them. Precious metals may come to the forefront as items for trade, as they are generally accepted around the world as things of value. Who knows what is around the corner.....I wish I did, as my crystal ball is in the shop right now.

 

Andy

[NewWorldOrder]

 

Good points, so far, however with the supply already set and only decreasing instead of increasing for keys, runs, HG, etc., do you guys think that our hobby is as susceptable to the marketplace in consideration that, unlike housing, our demand comes from a worldwide market and with the variations in currency, it may lessen the ultimate effects?

 

I would offer that housing IS a worldwide market. MANY investment banks overseas where hit (and still are) by the sub-prime market. Credit is tight every where - not just in the US. Just read recently that the Dutch government is giving HSBC a 10 billion rescue.

 

I don't think variations in currency will have THAT big of an impact. I think the concern will be sustaining an active collecting community. I think the majority of board members and current collectors remember reading our books in the 50s, 60s, 70s (and some in the 80s). We didn't have 250 TV channels to watch, Playstations, X-boxes, etc. Our entertainment was much more limited than the kids born in the late 80s, 90s and today. I think this has been mentioned before.

 

Sure the movies being produced are giving a big boost to collecting right now, but they'll only last so long. How many Spider-man movies can they make and keep younger people coming back?

 

I have been a kid growing up in the 80's and watched TV, Played video games, etc...and I dont play video games anymore because I would rather read comics. ( I am 28)

 

Off course not as many kids are reading as many comic now as opposed to the kids from 1939-1979, but comic books are a part of Pop-culture, so they like movies, video games, toys, etc... all just share a piece of the pie. Some collecters will collect comics and some will collect others things.

 

This is why I am 100% positive comics will be around for at least my lifetime.

 

1. Its 100% American God Darn it, we created comics as pop culute like Jazz and Pop Art.

 

2. The global market for comics has increased over the years so its not just Americans buying comics anymore, epsecially CGC.

 

3. People love stories whether its with pic or not.

 

John

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

Hard to say with certainty where this is all heading. I see common material being close to worthless and will take a long long long time to come back. This includes CGC 9.8 modern issues. I see everything having a correction, but how big and for how long. I see the US dollar tanking to levels we have never seen before. I see other currencies following. I see an overwhelming lack of faith in paper money from the majority of people out there. I see trading and bartering coming to the forefront. Objects that are perceived as having value. Rare comic books may hold their value as long as people still attribute value to them. Precious metals may come to the forefront as items for trade, as they are generally accepted around the world as things of value. Who knows what is around the corner.....I wish I did, as my crystal ball is in the shop right now.

 

Andy

 

I guess just see the market correcting itself, so I am not worried at all.

 

Well I hope anyway.

[Big Cat]

I see the opposite effect. I see key silver issues like AF 15, ASM 1, TOS 39, DD1, IM 1, Avengers 1, JIM 83, just go up in on eBay for big dollars (and thats in CGC 4.0 and less). I cannot believe that if I wanted to buy any of these keys today that I feel comfortable shelling out $2-4K for these lower grades. I can remember having an opportunity to pick us a ASM 1 five years ago in CGC 6.0 for around $3.5K. Now, forget it. This flipping book will cost me $6-8K at best, maybe a small break here and there.

[osborn_fr]

If a bubble there is, i still don't have seen it burst

[Paul_Maul]

It's incorrect to imply that baseball cards have lost all value/demand. What has really

happened is that the standard for what is considered high grade (and thus valuable)

continues to escalate.

 

Pre-war cards are still in heavy demand in all grades because they are so rare.

 

But take the 1972 Topps set as an example. Even cards in PSA 8 (NM/MT)

condition no longer command much because PSA 9's are pretty available.

 

I think we've already seen similar developments with comics, where 9.4 bronze

no longer seems to set too many hearts a flutter. I see no reason to believe AF 15

or Action 1 will suddenly crash any more than a T206 rarity or early Babe Ruth card.

These have done nothing but continually escalate in value.

[the blob]

I would offer that housing IS a worldwide market. MANY investment banks overseas where hit (and still are) by the sub-prime market.

*******************

 

We are learning now that Europe had its own version of subprime loans, certainly in the U.K.

 

----------------------------------------------------

 

As for comics...what brought cards down in the early 90's was the huge numbers of cards getting pumped out and the realization that anything from the last 10-15 years was incredibly common. My friend who had a card/comic shop would tell stories about how they'd open up Topps 1986 packs (which cost what, 35 cents?) and through the magic of Becketts and local silliness they'd have like $10-$15 in cards...$5 for the Dan Pasqua rookie, $5 for the Don Mattingly 3rd year card, $5 for the Clemens 2d year card, $5 for the Vince Coleman rookie, $3 for the Henderson 4th year card, etc. etc. He knew it was a joke at the time, but was happy to make money and people were hysterical. One guy wanted to put his kids college savings into new cards and wanted advice on what to buy and my friend tried to talk him out of it and the guy threatened to beat him up for withholding "secret" dealer's tricks and not giving the little guy a chance. You get the idea, just about as silly as Valiant books selling for $50-100 8 months after they came out or Pitt #1 being a $10 book, etc.

 

Comics basically went through the same thing a couple of years later in the 90s. No sustainability to modern back issues when there were 5 for every collector. A Barry Bonds RC can't be worth all that much when 5-10 were printed for every collector....

 

This took down the vintage material in sports cards too.

 

The 90's comic bust only took down the vintage comics market temporarily...and then the market got further stratesfied with CGC 9.8s and so on.

 

Putting aside the manufactured collectible variants...and those are "rare" individually, though the huge numbers of different variants make them pretty common as a whole, at least this bubble is based on perceived rarity. the internet makes it impossible for things that there's an oversupply of to be overpriced.

 

It's really going to depend on what % of these books were bought with flipping in mind and if the purchasers of these books are getting hit by the economy and need to sell. Just like anything else, nothing magic about comics.

[Monstro]

It's incorrect to imply that baseball cards have lost all value/demand. What has really

happened is that the standard for what is considered high grade (and thus valuable)

continues to escalate.

 

Pre-war cards are still in heavy demand in all grades because they are so rare.

 

But take the 1972 Topps set as an example. Even cards in PSA 8 (NM/MT)

condition no longer command much because PSA 9's are pretty available.

 

I think we've already seen similar developments with comics, where 9.4 bronze

no longer seems to set too many hearts a flutter. I see no reason to believe AF 15

or Action 1 will suddenly crash any more than a T206 rarity or early Babe Ruth card.

These have done nothing but continually escalate in value.

 

 

while PSA and CGC have some decent affects on the hobby i think the issue you mention above may end up killing both eventually.

 

what i would prefer however is that the bottom will some day fall out and all comics from say 9.0 and up will be worth the same thing. as well as 6.0 to 9.0's etc.

 

 

[Paul_Maul]

 

This took down the vintage material in sports cards too.

 

 

I don't know what happened to vintage cards pre-PSA or temporarily in the late 80's,

but the market is certainly healthy today, provided the cards are in grades that make

them at all challenging to find.

[divad]

 

This took down the vintage material in sports cards too.

 

 

I don't know what happened to vintage cards pre-PSA or temporarily in the late 80's,

but the market is certainly healthy today, provided the cards are in grades that make

them at all challenging to find.

 

Never mind trying to find a pack of these:

 

 

 

[Ogami]

It's really going to depend on what % of these books were bought with flipping in mind and if the purchasers of these books are getting hit by the economy and need to sell. Just like anything else, nothing magic about comics.

 

great post, TB, but wanted to highlight this.

[Bronty]

good point indeed.

 

that's why I don't buy anymore. Honestly, at today's price levels I bet 90%+ of the collector pool no longer feels comfortable buying them purely as collectible objects. Any decent book is going to be priced high enough to include some element of investment/speculation to them for all but the richest collectors.

 

I mean if that 5k for a decent FF1 was going to truly be money out the window, with no way to ever get the money back, would you really buy that FF1? I wouldn't. I could spend 1k on that book and just be happy to own and never get the money back. But 5k? no. And the effect is magnfied when you have a whole collection of expensive books. Can you away the 6 figure value of your collection? No chance.

 

So if a bubble does ever burst in comics WOW will there ever be some FEAR and PANIC. Because price levels are at a point where even the average guy who truly loves the medium has too much to lose if prices tank.