What's your opinion? A comic book bubble?

[THE_BEYONDER]

good point indeed.

 

that's why I don't buy anymore. Honestly, at today's price levels I bet 90%+ of the collector pool no longer feels comfortable buying them purely as collectible objects. Any decent book is going to be priced high enough to include some element of investment/speculation to them for all but the richest collectors.

 

I mean if that 5k for a decent FF1 was going to truly be money out the window, with no way to ever get the money back, would you really buy that FF1? I wouldn't. I could spend 1k on that book and just be happy to own and never get the money back. But 5k? no. And the effect is magnfied when you have a whole collection of expensive books. Can you away the 6 figure value of your collection? No chance.

 

So if a bubble does ever burst in comics WOW will there ever be some FEAR and PANIC. Because price levels are at a point where even the average guy who truly loves the medium has too much to lose if prices tank.

 

Yup. And for those that remember 'The Fear' in the early '90s.......magnify that by ten-fold.

 

In 1993....you got stuck with 100 unread copies of Spawn 1

In 2008....you get stuck with a single 9.9 copy in a slab

 

At least you can burn the 100 raw copies to keep warm.

[lizards2]

I don't think there is any bubble. I would like there to be, so that I could finish my collection on the cheap, but I really don't think it will happen.

 

There is a lot of money in the hobby right now -- baby boomers with lots of money, and well insulated from the outside fiscal crises. The only thing that will kill the current market is when all the baby boomers, and those that follow, die off, and there is no nostalgia (i.e., demand) left for the relevant eras.

[THE_BEYONDER]

I don't think there is any bubble. I would like there to be, so that I could finish my collection on the cheap, but I really don't think it will happen.

 

There is a lot of money in the hobby right now -- baby boomers with lots of money, and well insulated from the outside fiscal crises. The only thing that will kill the current market is when all the baby boomers, and those that follow, die off, and there is no nostalgia (i.e., demand) left for the relevant eras.

 

What about all the speculators that are propping up the market right now? They're not motivated by nostalgia. The 1st sign of trouble....and they'll abandon ship without hesitation.

[lizards2]

I don't think there is any bubble. I would like there to be, so that I could finish my collection on the cheap, but I really don't think it will happen.

 

There is a lot of money in the hobby right now -- baby boomers with lots of money, and well insulated from the outside fiscal crises. The only thing that will kill the current market is when all the baby boomers, and those that follow, die off, and there is no nostalgia (i.e., demand) left for the relevant eras.

 

What about all the speculators that are propping up the market right now? They're not motivated by nostalgia. The 1st sign of trouble....and they'll abandon ship without hesitation.

 

Like I said, I hope you are correct - I like your prediction better than mine :thumbsup:

 

I guess I live in my own insulated world here and on eBay, and I don't go to comic shops or conventions, so no, I don't know about speculators propping up the market.

[JazzMan]

I don't think there is any bubble. I would like there to be, so that I could finish my collection on the cheap, but I really don't think it will happen.

 

There is a lot of money in the hobby right now -- baby boomers with lots of money, and well insulated from the outside fiscal crises. The only thing that will kill the current market is when all the baby boomers, and those that follow, die off, and there is no nostalgia (i.e., demand) left for the relevant eras.

 

What about all the speculators that are propping up the market right now? They're not motivated by nostalgia. The 1st sign of trouble....and they'll abandon ship without hesitation.

 

Maybe the first victims will be the flippers ... which reminds me of day traders.

 

I see normalization in some of the modern books, at times. For example about 3 years ago Civil War variants were hot and some issues and tie ins were also very hot. Almost ubiquitously they are all half of their orignal price (with exception of the CGC 9.9 and CGC 10 that exist).

 

So this begs the question, does our hobby have a built in safety valve that normalizes prices once they reach a point but in isolated, specific areas that don't effect the overall market? From the looks of it, yes, and my hope is that it continues to behave in this fashion. I, too, would love to see some books devalue so that I can pick them up on the cheap, but overall the value of my existing books would go to pot and that's not the desired effect.

[G.A.tor]

I don't think there is any bubble. I would like there to be, so that I could finish my collection on the cheap, but I really don't think it will happen.

 

There is a lot of money in the hobby right now -- baby boomers with lots of money, and well insulated from the outside fiscal crises. The only thing that will kill the current market is when all the baby boomers, and those that follow, die off, and there is no nostalgia (i.e., demand) left for the relevant eras.

 

What about all the speculators that are propping up the market right now? They're not motivated by nostalgia. The 1st sign of trouble....and they'll abandon ship without hesitation.

[lizards2]

I can't believe people pay $20 to $25 each (or more) newly released books, just because they are in a CGC case. Those books will eventually be destined for the quarter boxes. I can't see this leading to anything but trouble on that front.

[Mio]

I think comic books are like most other items generally categorized as "collectibles." Those items which are truly rare or unique, and relevant culturally, will always have at least some following and retain some value, or grow in value.

 

In the longer-term, I do not think anyone will really care about CGC 9.6 vs. 9.8 for a common modern comic book with no inherent significance (other than it is high-grade). On the other hand, key issues of any grade will likely always have a following. The first appearance of the Crypt Keeper will always attract a following of comic book/pop culture enthusiasts (and moreso if HBO would bring back the bloody Crypt series!) and so will Action 1 etc.

 

If there is a bubble, the common books will be the first ones to crumble, and those with real cultural relevance may lose some value, but will generally be somewhat insulated from collapse.

[kc120us]

good point indeed.

 

that's why I don't buy anymore. Honestly, at today's price levels I bet 90%+ of the collector pool no longer feels comfortable buying them purely as collectible objects. Any decent book is going to be priced high enough to include some element of investment/speculation to them for all but the richest collectors.

 

I mean if that 5k for a decent FF1 was going to truly be money out the window, with no way to ever get the money back, would you really buy that FF1? I wouldn't. I could spend 1k on that book and just be happy to own and never get the money back. But 5k? no. And the effect is magnfied when you have a whole collection of expensive books. Can you away the 6 figure value of your collection? No chance.

 

So if a bubble does ever burst in comics WOW will there ever be some FEAR and PANIC. Because price levels are at a point where even the average guy who truly loves the medium has too much to lose if prices tank.

 

That is why many of us say that money used to buy comics should be disposable income. I don't think any of the serious HG collectors are hedging huge percentages of their fortunes on funny books. Those that are, are like the sub-prime home owners who got in way over their heads.

[Ogami]

That is why many of us say that money used to buy comics should be disposable income. I don't think any of the serious HG collectors are hedging huge percentages of their fortunes on funny books. Those that are, are like the sub-prime home owners who got in way over their heads.

 

HG or not, this is good sound advice.

 

I have over 6k books, and even though many are low to midgrade, they add up to a big chunk of change.

 

And I've never HAD to sell a book, not 1, in 24 years+ of collecting.

[Bronty]

good point indeed.

 

that's why I don't buy anymore. Honestly, at today's price levels I bet 90%+ of the collector pool no longer feels comfortable buying them purely as collectible objects. Any decent book is going to be priced high enough to include some element of investment/speculation to them for all but the richest collectors.

 

I mean if that 5k for a decent FF1 was going to truly be money out the window, with no way to ever get the money back, would you really buy that FF1? I wouldn't. I could spend 1k on that book and just be happy to own and never get the money back. But 5k? no. And the effect is magnfied when you have a whole collection of expensive books. Can you away the 6 figure value of your collection? No chance.

 

So if a bubble does ever burst in comics WOW will there ever be some FEAR and PANIC. Because price levels are at a point where even the average guy who truly loves the medium has too much to lose if prices tank.

 

That is why many of us say that money used to buy comics should be disposable income. I don't think any of the serious HG collectors are hedging huge percentages of their fortunes on funny books. Those that are, are like the sub-prime home owners who got in way over their heads.

 

My opinion? People will spend $200 here, $500 there, it all seems disposable since they can still pay their bills. But all of a sudden they are looking at a funnybook collection worth $100k and those 'disposable purchases' don't seem so disposable anymore when the market starts to tank.

[kc120us]

good point indeed.

 

that's why I don't buy anymore. Honestly, at today's price levels I bet 90%+ of the collector pool no longer feels comfortable buying them purely as collectible objects. Any decent book is going to be priced high enough to include some element of investment/speculation to them for all but the richest collectors.

 

I mean if that 5k for a decent FF1 was going to truly be money out the window, with no way to ever get the money back, would you really buy that FF1? I wouldn't. I could spend 1k on that book and just be happy to own and never get the money back. But 5k? no. And the effect is magnfied when you have a whole collection of expensive books. Can you away the 6 figure value of your collection? No chance.

 

So if a bubble does ever burst in comics WOW will there ever be some FEAR and PANIC. Because price levels are at a point where even the average guy who truly loves the medium has too much to lose if prices tank.

 

That is why many of us say that money used to buy comics should be disposable income. I don't think any of the serious HG collectors are hedging huge percentages of their fortunes on funny books. Those that are, are like the sub-prime home owners who got in way over their heads.

 

My opinion? People will spend $200 here, $500 there, it all seems disposable since they can still pay their bills. But all of a sudden they are looking at a funnybook collection worth $100k and those 'disposable purchases' don't seem so disposable anymore when the market starts to tank.

 

Yes but it depends on what they have in reserve. If someone has several million in savings and other investments and has 100 or 200k in books, losing the 200k won't hurt as much. Sure it will sting but I don't think they will lose that much sleep over it. But, those that have 100k or or 200k in books and only 20k in savings should never have invested so deeply in the first place. But you are right. A lot of collectors spend $200 here and $500 there and don't properly plan their financial futures.

[joe_collector]

One thing I'll say for sure, is that when the sheit hits the fan, and comics are as cold as last night's leftovers, I will require all you "I'll buy tons of comics on the cheap - yeah!" ninnies to line up with checkbooks open, prepared to buy vast collections at current market levels.

 

But obviously it never happens that way. Fear breeds more fear, and there's nothing as unattractive as a dead cold market. I know, as I was actively buying BA after the Independent crash and the 90's speculator crashes, and the environment was quite a bit different. Dirt-cheap prices, sellers competing for buyers and lots of excuses from *current collectors* why no one was buying then.

 

It's very likely that after the bubble bursts, we'll never see any of those "I'm a post-crash bargain hunter" guys ever again.

[FatComicMafia]

There has always been a low in the comic market, often met with highs and stability, despite the economy. I saw a comic book market crash that hit comic shops across the boards with new and back issues. This happened both in the mid 1980's and once again in the mid 1990's. Most of it was due to speculators, over inflated prices, and overprinting.

 

Since CGC has come into light, there has been some down times as well. A couple of examples off the top of my head...Golden Age books being dumped in great numbers, via Heritage and a few other outlets, due to a major player letting loose his hoards.

 

There was some good deals on Golden age books during that time. As for moderns, although a different beast, when CGC started, some collectors were paying $300+ dollars for some of the first 9.8's that might not even sell for $100 right now. Later, some individuals were getting pretty much quarter box items graded at 9.8, and they could not even recover their grading fee's of $12. Since then, there was a a minor surge last 2 years or so. I'm not sure where it's at right now.

 

I haven't seen Silver age take a bath, but I have seen cooling periods. I remember I had an AF #15 on Comiclink in unrestored 6.5 condition, signed on the titled page by Stan Lee, and it took several months for it sell for about 8K. That copy had a lot of sentimental value for me.

 

 

The market has been doing surprisingly well. Unless there is a major economic crisis that really hits everyone, then the comic market in the mean time will have its highs and lows in its respected genres. In regards to the bubble bursting, I think there has been a growing outlook that many Silver age keys are still under valued, ie JIM #83, Early Strange Tales, TTA, TOS, Avengers etc along with a little movie hype/ speculation. There is still room for lofty growth with a lot of these titles and I don't expect many these books to go down anytime soon, given how tough a lot of these titles are to come by in high grade, and along with some of the out dated values in Overstreet.

 

 

 

[bhhooks22]

There has always been a low in the comic market, often met with highs and stability, despite the economy. I saw a comic book market crash that hit comic shops across the boards new and back issues, both in the mid 1980's and once again in the mid 1990's. Most of it was due to speculators, over inflated prices, and overprinting.

 

Since CGC has come into light, there has been some down times as well. A couple of examples off the top of my head...Golden Age books being dumped in great numbers, via Heritage and a few other outlets, due to a major player letting loose his hoards.

 

There was some good deals on Golden age books during that time. As for moderns, although a different beast, when CGC started, some collectors were paying $300+ dollars for some of the first 9.8's that might not even sell for $100 right now. Later, some individuals were getting pretty much quarter box items graded at 9.8, and they could not even recover their grading fee's of $12. Since then, there was a a minor surge last 2 years or so. I'm not sure where it's at right now.

 

I haven't seen Silver age take a bath, but I have seen cooling periods. I remember I had an AF #15 on Comiclink in unrestored 6.5 condition, signed on the titled page by Stan Lee, and it took several months for it sell for about 8K. That copy had a lot of sentimental value for me.

 

 

The market has been doing surprisingly well. Unless there is a major economic crisis that really hits everyone, then the comic market in the mean time will have its highs and lows in its respected genres. In regards to the bubble bursting, I think there has been a growing outlook that many Silver age keys are still under valued, ie JIM #83, Early Strange Tales, TTA, TOS, Avengers etc along with a little movie hype/ speculation. There is still room for lofty growth with a lot of these titles and I don't expect many these books to go down anytime soon, given how tough a lot of these titles are to come by in high grade, and along with some of the out dated values in Overstreet.

 

 

 

"Unless there is a major economic crises that really hits everyone ."

 

Ahem , isn't that exactly what just happened ?

[MMurdock]

There has always been a low in the comic market, often met with highs and stability, despite the economy. I saw a comic book market crash that hit comic shops across the boards new and back issues, both in the mid 1980's and once again in the mid 1990's. Most of it was due to speculators, over inflated prices, and overprinting.

 

Since CGC has come into light, there has been some down times as well. A couple of examples off the top of my head...Golden Age books being dumped in great numbers, via Heritage and a few other outlets, due to a major player letting loose his hoards.

 

There was some good deals on Golden age books during that time. As for moderns, although a different beast, when CGC started, some collectors were paying $300+ dollars for some of the first 9.8's that might not even sell for $100 right now. Later, some individuals were getting pretty much quarter box items graded at 9.8, and they could not even recover their grading fee's of $12. Since then, there was a a minor surge last 2 years or so. I'm not sure where it's at right now.

 

I haven't seen Silver age take a bath, but I have seen cooling periods. I remember I had an AF #15 on Comiclink in unrestored 6.5 condition, signed on the titled page by Stan Lee, and it took several months for it sell for about 8K. That copy had a lot of sentimental value for me.

 

 

The market has been doing surprisingly well. Unless there is a major economic crisis that really hits everyone, then the comic market in the mean time will have its highs and lows in its respected genres. In regards to the bubble bursting, I think there has been a growing outlook that many Silver age keys are still under valued, ie JIM #83, Early Strange Tales, TTA, TOS, Avengers etc along with a little movie hype/ speculation. There is still room for lofty growth with a lot of these titles and I don't expect many these books to go down anytime soon, given how tough a lot of these titles are to come by in high grade, and along with some of the out dated values in Overstreet.

 

 

 

"Unless there is a major economic crises that really hits everyone ."

 

Ahem , isn't that exactly what just happened ?

 

This goes beyond comics, but I think as much as this "crisis" hurts us all, things are not as terrible as some try to say.

 

Look at the forums/ebay - things are still going for a lot of money (for keys, that I watch anyway). I keep waiting for deals and they're not coming (by and large). We have high-speed internet, HDTVs, cell phones, multiple cars, large homes and we're talking about a crisis. People struggled to get food in the Great Depression. We are not close to that.

 

As to comics, I think it's easy to say an area we don't invest in will be "the first to go." I, for example, don't understand buying HG moderns. I don't see the value. I sometimes wouldn't pay 10% of the price they go for. But I am a key man. A low-grade key man...so some of you wouldn't touch the kind of stuff I buy. So you'll say low-grades will be the first to go...I'll say HG moderns will be the first to go. Who knows?

[NewWorldOrder]

There has always been a low in the comic market, often met with highs and stability, despite the economy. I saw a comic book market crash that hit comic shops across the boards new and back issues, both in the mid 1980's and once again in the mid 1990's. Most of it was due to speculators, over inflated prices, and overprinting.

 

Since CGC has come into light, there has been some down times as well. A couple of examples off the top of my head...Golden Age books being dumped in great numbers, via Heritage and a few other outlets, due to a major player letting loose his hoards.

 

There was some good deals on Golden age books during that time. As for moderns, although a different beast, when CGC started, some collectors were paying $300+ dollars for some of the first 9.8's that might not even sell for $100 right now. Later, some individuals were getting pretty much quarter box items graded at 9.8, and they could not even recover their grading fee's of $12. Since then, there was a a minor surge last 2 years or so. I'm not sure where it's at right now.

 

I haven't seen Silver age take a bath, but I have seen cooling periods. I remember I had an AF #15 on Comiclink in unrestored 6.5 condition, signed on the titled page by Stan Lee, and it took several months for it sell for about 8K. That copy had a lot of sentimental value for me.

 

 

The market has been doing surprisingly well. Unless there is a major economic crisis that really hits everyone, then the comic market in the mean time will have its highs and lows in its respected genres. In regards to the bubble bursting, I think there has been a growing outlook that many Silver age keys are still under valued, ie JIM #83, Early Strange Tales, TTA, TOS, Avengers etc along with a little movie hype/ speculation. There is still room for lofty growth with a lot of these titles and I don't expect many these books to go down anytime soon, given how tough a lot of these titles are to come by in high grade, and along with some of the out dated values in Overstreet.

 

 

 

"Unless there is a major economic crises that really hits everyone ."

 

Ahem , isn't that exactly what just happened ?

 

Well I still see people everyday still spending money, driving expensive cars and spending $8.00 a drink downtown.

 

Financial crisis my a s s its people just cant be stupid anymore with their money.

 

To compare this economy with the great depression is like comparing Action Comics #1 to a Spawn #1. Upsurd.

 

Are people losing money in 401K stocks off course but lets not lose our heads people, it will go back up.

 

Actually if you have disposable income right now I would suggest........BUY STOCKS! Low is good!

 

 

 

 

[FatComicMafia]

Judging by the recent auction results for Comiclink, Metro, & Quality Comix, I would say we are not there yet.

 

Plus there are a lot of folk that haven't been directly affected, or at least as of yet.

[NewWorldOrder]

Judging by the recent auction results for Comiclink, Metro, & Quality Comix, I would say we are not there yet.

 

Plus there are a lot of folk that haven't been directly affected, or at least as of yet.

 

Fatcomicmafia in this thread we are thinking alike my friend!

[HOTFLIPS]

Wierd, some guy came into my store last week and he had all these cards from the 60's 70's 80's and 90's. The 90's are pretty much worthless. The 80's are pretty much worthless (he did have Ripkens Rookie). The 60's and 70's he multiples of all the stars (of course, no one seems to have any Mantle cards in their stash). He did not have any cards in plastic at all. (except his Mcgwire rookie ) The cards were really beat up. The guy got insulted when i offered him $150 for everything. I even told him he could keep the recent stuff if he wanted. Before i made him an offer he told me he was gonna shop around. He "didnt know" what he wanted for them. I told him before the offer that i really didnt want them and he was better off saving them and giving them to his kids or grandkids. We were looking the cards up. He had a Noloan Ryan Rookie and i was shocked to see that in mint it only booked for $375.00. Same thing with the Johnny Bench Rookie he had, that only booked for $85.00 in mint. I remember Ryan's card going for over a $1,000 in the 90's.

 

This guy thought the cards were mint and he was gonna retire.

 

Maybe the comic book market will repeat what has happened in the card market. I just think the more movies that come out about comics will only help it or maybe there will be a lull but not as bad.

 

Just my

 

Jeff