TTA 59 9.6 sells for 10K

[MutantKeys]

Family oriented

[MutantKeys]

Family oriented

You could call it a "Firehouse" pole.

Leave to Jersey already

[COI]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

 

At some point, the getting is no longer good.

 

CGC and the internet is at play, and I'll suggest that these two market forces combined with an aging collector demographic is causing a rapid maturation of this hobby. So, while 1995 may not seem like a long time ago, it's dangerous to assume that the next 14 years are going resemble the last 14.

 

I'm not saying you're doing that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of thinking is at play behind some of the recent surges we've seen.

 

Another thing to consider is that the big guys (Brulato, Schmell, etc.) are still buying. Schmell is still looking to finish an SA X-Men run in all 9.8. I see Brulato at every NY show buying stacks and stacks of HG raw books. And I'm sure there are others. If all the big guys had stopped buying and were trying to sell their collections, I might see your point. Truth is no one knows when we'll hit the ceiling if ever. We all know that collecting is a powerful habit and that is why I believe many of those big guys are still in it.

 

What is Brulato doing with those books? What did Brulato do with all those books from the fire lake collection on Ebay? He's getting outrageous prices for them by selling them to you guys after they've been "maximized", which allows him to go nuts on the books he needs for his run. That, and as I said earlier, many of his crazy books like the ASM #1 were acquired pre-CGC, so when you consider all of that, he's in the black, even if he does set record prices on a few books. Same thing goes with Schmell, who now deals comics for a living. You can't compare these two guys to the high grade collector who has entered the market recently to put his runs together. Would Schmell or Brulato have been able to assemble the collections they have now, if they entered the market today? I doubt it.

[COI]

This is true, but many people have been calling the high water mark for decades now, and each of them has been able to trot out many reasons why "it`s different this time", and each time they`ve been disastrously wrong as the market has continued to climb to previously unimaginable heights. If you want to have an amusing read, go back to some threads from 2003 and 2004 and the ridicule of prices paid back then, and I`m not even including all the doomsday predictions from JC and Delekkerste.

 

I was there for those discussions, sometimes participating, sometimes lurking. I was typically bearish in my outlook, maybe not to the extent of JC or Gene, but I was there. And I was wrong, but I have the luxury of being wrong because it isn't costing me anything. A High grade "investor" doesn't have that same luxury.

 

That being said, you can't seriously tell me that you think every high grade collector is wealthy enough to build a collection of 5 and 6 figure books, and be able to take huge losses on them should the market tank. If time payments are needed, someone is over-extending themselves. Hobbies are addictive, and people get carried away despite what they may claim.

 

Anyway Tim, given the number of books that you turn down because you can't justify the cost, I know you don't completely disagree with me, even if you won't admit it in public.

[COI]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

Where is Gene when you need him?

 

Roy, the hobby has matured rapidly due to online commerce, CGC and an aging demographic. I'm saying it again; you can't compare the past to now, because those three variables were not at play, and they are HUGE. The people who want these books have reached maturity in terms of earning potential, books are more liquid, and that's more than sufficient in explaining the "boom" we've seen since around 2000 and 2001. It isn't the "same old" discussion that was taking pace in the 60's.

 

A substantial quantity of books are becoming WAY out of reach for someone with an average income. Where are these collections going to go? Do you really think there are enough 20 and 30 somethings into vintage books to absorb what the boomers leave behind, especially at these prices?

[THE_BEYONDER]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

Where is Gene when you need him?

 

Roy, the hobby has matured rapidly due to online commerce, CGC and an aging demographic. I'm saying it again; you can't compare the past to now, because those three variables were not at play, and they are HUGE. The people who want these books have reached maturity in terms of earning potential, books are more liquid, and that's more than sufficient in explaining the "boom" we've seen since around 2000 and 2001. It isn't the "same old" discussion that was taking pace in the 60's.

 

A substantial quantity of books are becoming WAY out of reach for someone with an average income. Where are these collections going to go? Do you really think there are enough 20 and 30 somethings into vintage books to absorb what the boomers leave behind, especially at these prices?

 

The accelerated maturation of the market due to Ebay & CGC is the one thing that some can't seem to grasp.

[COI]

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

One other thing; most of what I'm saying has nothing to do with the mega-keys, it's about the Avengers #57's and the FF #72's where 9.6's sell for 10X the price of 9.4's.

 

I get sick of hearing about that Action 1. It isn't in play, and hasn't been since the Dentist acquired it. There is no correlation between that Action 1, and the SA sales we're seeing now. How many people are thinking about that one purchase as they max out their lines of credit on common, non-key late SA and BA slabs?

[Green]

50 pages here we come!

[Aman619]

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

One other thing; most of what I'm saying has nothing to do with the mega-keys, it's about the Avengers #57's and the FF #72's where 9.6's sell for 10X the price of 9.4's.

 

I get sick of hearing about that Action 1. It isn't in play, and hasn't been since the Dentist acquired it. There is no correlation between that Action 1, and the SA sales we're seeing now. How many people are thinking about that one purchase as they max out their lines of credit on common, non-key late SA and BA slabs?

 

I hope Im being consistent on this issue, because sometimes I think Im arguing both sides: Yes 10K is crazy for this book... and: But is it, or will it remain crazy?

 

At least this isnt an out-and-out COMMON book here. This boils down to whether the VeryHG copies of fairly early SA Semi-Key Marvels have jumped from 3-5K to 10-12K for those who really want them in grade.

 

I dont see that as either an insurmountable leap at this point, nor a sure-fire brick in a collection.

[Aman619]

having said that, many of us, having been around and buying for years, are prepared to go there. Doesnt mean enough of you others wont follow, or that sales like this wont affect the market, causing other comparable sales.

[tth2]

Anyway Tim, given the number of books that you turn down because you can't justify the cost, I know you don't completely disagree with me, even if you won't admit it in public.

Well, my point was more that while I`m not willing to pay X price, the guy who WAS willing to pay it isn`t necessarily wrong. He just has a different benchmark than me and likely will be the one proved right in the future.

[tth2]

A substantial quantity of books are becoming WAY out of reach for someone with an average income. Where are these collections going to go? Do you really think there are enough 20 and 30 somethings into vintage books to absorb what the boomers leave behind, especially at these prices?

Andrew, this is also what I mean by every collector has his own benchmarks based on the reference points he`s personally experienced. I`ve heard this exact same "it`s different this time" argument for 25 years now, using the exact same points that you raised. It sounded just as convincing each time and the person saying it was just as sincere each time, but each time it was just as wrong.

 

Do I recall that you disregarded the advice of all the lawyers on the board and went to law school anyway? If so, remember that one of the most important skills you have to pick up is the ability to really put yourself in someone else`s head to try to understand what they`re seeing or feeling. Now do this and go back to 1992 or so and try to understand that to comic collectors everywhere, spending $40K on a AF 15 was absolutely unfathomable at the time. Don`t take my word for it, Bill has referenced the same thing here. At that time, the arguments were that the market had been broadened significantly because now the big auction houses were involved, dissemination of information had increased greatly because Overstreet was issuing monthly price guides and market reports, $40K books were beyond the reach of any average person, $40K represented a hugely disproportionate percentage of an average salary, and the kids would be driven out by the old dudes spending big bucks, thus killing the future of the hobby.

 

[COI]

Do I recall that you disregarded the advice of all the lawyers on the board and went to law school anyway?

 

Is this a dig? Cause it feels like a dig. And for the record, not *all* the Lawyers on this board advised me away from law; I got a couple of really encouraging pm's from 2 prominent board lawyers.

 

If so, remember that one of the most important skills you have to pick up is the ability to really put yourself in someone else`s head to try to understand what they`re seeing or feeling.

 

What part of this discussion has you convinced that this is a skill I need to "pick up"? I can see both perspectives quite clearly. I'm not accusing you of being narrow minded just because you don't agree with me, and I'd appreciate the same courtesy. Last time I checked, the ability to form a persuasive argument is also an important skill that a lawyer needs to pick up, and you can't do that while straddling the fence.

 

 

[tth2]

Do I recall that you disregarded the advice of all the lawyers on the board and went to law school anyway?

 

Is this a dig? Cause it feels like a dig. And for the record, not *all* the Lawyers on this board advised me away from law; I got a couple of really encouraging pm's from 2 prominent board lawyers.

Yes, it was a dig. If you were determined to do it even after hearing about the bad side of things of the profession, then more power to you.

 

As for the two who encouraged you, just remember that misery loves company.

 

If so, remember that one of the most important skills you have to pick up is the ability to really put yourself in someone else`s head to try to understand what they`re seeing or feeling.

 

What part of this discussion has you convinced that this is a skill I need to "pick up"?

Because you're still falling into the trap of "My own experience is the only relevant frame of reference" and therefore you're extrapolating from the fact that during your own collecting life, prices have moved significantly higher and are now "too high" because none of the factors that would support further moves higher could exist. I was simply pointing out that if you took into account that someone with a much longer collecting life would have experienced the same thing and seen the top of the market incorrectly predicted many times, you might understand better why I scoff any time I see predictions that we've topped out and "this time it's different".

 

I'm not accusing you of being narrow minded just because you don't agree with me, and I'd appreciate the same courtesy. Last time I checked, the ability to form a persuasive argument is also an important skill that a lawyer needs to pick up, and you can't do that while straddling the fence.

Sorry, that wasn't my intention. You've made your argument very eloquently. I was just trying to point out that everyone can be an advocate for their own position, but it's much harder to look at their position from the outside and see the weaknesses. The part I used to like the most when the litigators got ready for trial was when they would get other lawyers in the firm (litigators and non-litigators) to try to pick their position apart, and to see if they had done a good enough job of anticipating the various arguments that they would hear.

[DrWatson]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

Where is Gene when you need him?

 

Roy, the hobby has matured rapidly due to online commerce, CGC and an aging demographic. I'm saying it again; you can't compare the past to now, because those three variables were not at play, and they are HUGE. The people who want these books have reached maturity in terms of earning potential, books are more liquid, and that's more than sufficient in explaining the "boom" we've seen since around 2000 and 2001. It isn't the "same old" discussion that was taking pace in the 60's.

 

A substantial quantity of books are becoming WAY out of reach for someone with an average income. Where are these collections going to go? Do you really think there are enough 20 and 30 somethings into vintage books to absorb what the boomers leave behind, especially at these prices?

 

The accelerated maturation of the market due to Ebay & CGC is the one thing that some can't seem to grasp.

Did you have to put on a suit and tie to whip out a statement like that?

[Old Fashion PB and J]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

Where is Gene when you need him?

 

Roy, the hobby has matured rapidly due to online commerce, CGC and an aging demographic. I'm saying it again; you can't compare the past to now, because those three variables were not at play, and they are HUGE. The people who want these books have reached maturity in terms of earning potential, books are more liquid, and that's more than sufficient in explaining the "boom" we've seen since around 2000 and 2001. It isn't the "same old" discussion that was taking pace in the 60's.

 

A substantial quantity of books are becoming WAY out of reach for someone with an average income. Where are these collections going to go? Do you really think there are enough 20 and 30 somethings into vintage books to absorb what the boomers leave behind, especially at these prices?

 

The accelerated maturation of the market due to Ebay & CGC is the one thing that some can't seem to grasp.

Did you have to put on a suit and tie to whip out a statement like that?

 

He busted out his Tuxedo T-shirt

[delekkerste]

Where is Gene when you need him?

 

I was working in London the past few days and am now in Paris.

 

Tim will disagree with me, but the difference between then and now is that price appreciation has outstripped income growth by an order of magnitude or more on some of these HG books over the past 15-20 years (due to the factors that you mentioned and others). I'm not disputing that prices have always "seemed" high, but now they actually *are* high. The same arguments that Tim is using could easily have been applied to prime real estate until recently. Prices always went from strength to strength...until they got totally out of whack with underlying incomes (and availability of credit).

 

We'll see if the comic market fares better over time. In the meantime, I'm just enjoying watching this krazy circus.

[Green]

[awe4one]

I was working in London the past few days and am now in Paris.

 

How's the weather?

 

Jim

[COI]

Do I recall that you disregarded the advice of all the lawyers on the board and went to law school anyway?

 

Is this a dig? Cause it feels like a dig. And for the record, not *all* the Lawyers on this board advised me away from law; I got a couple of really encouraging pm's from 2 prominent board lawyers.

Yes, it was a dig. If you were determined to do it even after hearing about the bad side of things of the profession, then more power to you.

 

As for the two who encouraged you, just remember that misery loves company.

 

If so, remember that one of the most important skills you have to pick up is the ability to really put yourself in someone else`s head to try to understand what they`re seeing or feeling.

 

What part of this discussion has you convinced that this is a skill I need to "pick up"?

Because you're still falling into the trap of "My own experience is the only relevant frame of reference" and therefore you're extrapolating from the fact that during your own collecting life, prices have moved significantly higher and are now "too high" because none of the factors that would support further moves higher could exist. I was simply pointing out that if you took into account that someone with a much longer collecting life would have experienced the same thing and seen the top of the market incorrectly predicted many times, you might understand better why I scoff any time I see predictions that we've topped out and "this time it's different".

 

I'm not accusing you of being narrow minded just because you don't agree with me, and I'd appreciate the same courtesy. Last time I checked, the ability to form a persuasive argument is also an important skill that a lawyer needs to pick up, and you can't do that while straddling the fence.

Sorry, that wasn't my intention. You've made your argument very eloquently. I was just trying to point out that everyone can be an advocate for their own position, but it's much harder to look at their position from the outside and see the weaknesses. The part I used to like the most when the litigators got ready for trial was when they would get other lawyers in the firm (litigators and non-litigators) to try to pick their position apart, and to see if they had done a good enough job of anticipating the various arguments that they would hear.

 

(thumbs u