TTA 59 9.6 sells for 10K

[tth2]

Just to play devil's advocate. Its been a known "fact" among the general collection population for probably 20 years now, or more, that high grade books appreciate faster than low grade. Its been taken as a law of nature, pretty much. Think of when you first heard the term "investment grade" - it was a long time ago now. That belief amongst most collectors that high grade books go up faster has led to people buying high grade and, surprise surprise, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Good points. My response would be that the definition of "high grade" or "investment grade" continues to shrink, because those looking for a challenge or exclusivity continue to narrow the band of what they're looking for. It used to be VF, and then became NM, and then in Brulato's famous words, "the madness starts at 9.6". So there is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy, but I would also say that the smart money is ahead of the curve and moves into the higher echelons before the rest of the comic collecting population does.

 

Also, I would say that the vast majority of collectors still are not high grade collectors.

 

If the general collector population is always, or almost always, wrong - as you suggest - then we should all be scooping all up the fairs and poors we can

Actually, I think FD has said for years that the real money was in the very low end of the market. However, it's just too darn much work for most people to deal with the volumes necessary to generate a decent profit.

 

Personally, I've always thought that if Overstreet would finally align with what has been going on in the actual marketplace and slash the hell out of SA prices in VF and below, then the lower grade books might finally reach some sort of equilibrium. Clearly there is a complete imbalance right now with demand being way short of supply. How many VF and lower SA Marvels sell on these boards or on eBay for anywhere close to Guide? Almost none.

[COI]

I would also say that the smart money is ahead of the curve and moves into the higher echelons before the rest of the comic collecting population does.

 

At what point does this cease to be true. When are prices too high?

 

Guys like Brulato got in low. As I understand it, he already had many of his best books (like the 9.8 ASM #1) pre-CGC, so he was definitely ahead of the curve 10-20 years ago. Maybe the prices we're seeing are a result of other collectors getting "up to speed", which would mean that it's time for the "smart money" to cash out.

[Bronty]

yep - to put it another way, when is the last sucker born? (cause so far there's been one born every minute)

[ciorac]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

[COI]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

 

At some point, the getting is no longer good.

 

CGC and the internet is at play, and I'll suggest that these two market forces combined with an aging collector demographic is causing a rapid maturation of this hobby. So, while 1995 may not seem like a long time ago, it's dangerous to assume that the next 14 years are going resemble the last 14.

 

I'm not saying you're doing that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of thinking is at play behind some of the recent surges we've seen.

[ciorac]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

 

At some point, the getting is no longer good.

 

CGC and the internet is at play, and I'll suggest that these two market forces combined with an aging collector demographic is causing a rapid maturation of this hobby. So, while 1995 may not seem like a long time ago, it's dangerous to assume that the next 14 years are going resemble the last 14.

 

I'm not saying you're doing that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of thinking is at play behind some of the recent surges we've seen.

 

I hear you COI, trust me. I've stopped predicting the top dollar has been obtained, but none of my real dollars are going towards this type of investment.

 

Heck, my arm would break clean off if I tried to pay six figures for a SA book. I just couldn't do it. Even if I could do it.

 

The same would be true about $10K for any non first tier key book of any age. I just don't have that much faith I guess. And it just doesn't sit well with me. But, more power to the ones that can and that enjoy doing it.

 

Not my money. If it makes them happy, then I am happy.

[drdonaldblake]

the whole notion of collectibles as investments : antiques/fine art/sports memorobilia/cards/comics is based on the principle of "the greater fool".

 

@ some point there are no more greater fools to sell to

 

and then what $ will your investment bring?

 

these ppl , whoever they are, buying 9.6 rocky mountain FF's @ these crazy prices and the spicey 50 9.8 @ $32 k are going to get burnt

 

just like the guy who bought the 9.9 spidey 19

 

at least with shares and property they can earn you dividends/rental income

[tth2]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

Don`t get me wrong, Bill, I have hit my threshold on quite a lot of books too. When I got consistently beat out on early SA DCs and GA and SA Duck books, I gave in and sold a lot of those books. I believe I reached my breaking point when I put in a bid of 15X Guide for a 9.4 Flash 125 and looked on in disbelief when it was not enough to beat out whatever behemoths had entered the market. I probably could have afforded to outbid the guys who were beating me out, or at least make an even harder run at the books, but I just wasn`t willing to. I have no doubt that in a few years people will be laughing at me for selling so cheaply.

 

The trend has continued, as I`ve been able to add to my early JLAs at prices I`m willing to pay for the scarcer books, but have been unable to add to the later issues because I just can`t justify the prices they`ve been going for. As a result, I`ll be consigning all of my JLAs from #21 onwards in the February Heritage auction. Lots of top of census 9.6s and 9.8s in there, many of them Pacific Coast copies, which seems to be where the action is these days. If you can`t beat `em, sell to `em!

[tth2]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

 

At some point, the getting is no longer good.

This is true, but many people have been calling the high water mark for decades now, and each of them has been able to trot out many reasons why "it`s different this time", and each time they`ve been disastrously wrong as the market has continued to climb to previously unimaginable heights. If you want to have an amusing read, go back to some threads from 2003 and 2004 and the ridicule of prices paid back then, and I`m not even including all the doomsday predictions from JC and Delekkerste. Certainly the ones from Gene were perfectly well thought out and very convincing because they were based on logical rationales, and yet they turned out to be just as wrong as the misguided missives from JC.

 

As I mentioned before, often times existing collectors/investors are bogged down with psychological baggage from the human mind`s tendency to benchmark off reference points in our own experience, and new collectors/investors coming in with no such benchmarks have no problem in spending previously unimaginable sums, and then they get bogged down and must be replaced by even newer collectors/investors. The thing we must realize is that to a collector who ramped up 2 or 3 years ago, $10K for a TTA 59 is as incomprehensible as $1K for the same book (in any grade) to a collector who had his heyday back in 1995. But the collector from 2-3 years ago probably wouldn`t blink twice about $1K for the book. Different reference point, but no more or less valid than the 1995 collector`s reference point, and in the long run, probably equally invalid.

[kc120us]

I.e. I'm sure there are 99 people among the comic collector population at large, not just talking about the boards now, who take a low grade batman #1 over the highest of high grade tta59's. That sentiment is echoed here, except here it might be more 97 to 3 here than 99 to 1

First rule of betting and investing is that the general population is generally wrong. When 9.4 AF 15s were selling for $125-150K, how many would have been willing to pay that price? Probably the same 97-3 ratio. In fact, I seem to remember Mark Wilson having a copy and it sat for a while because no one would meet his asking price, which I believe was in that range. Now, after multiple sales above $200K, and lower grade copies getting up to 6 figures, it looks like those purchases weren't so crazy.

 

The history of comic collecting is littered with "high water mark" purchases that were ridiculed for being too high, which in retrospect ended up looking pretty good.

 

God knows you are dead on the money with the part I bolded above Tim. I quit predicting the top dollar has been reached, back in 1995 when I thought the $35k paid for an AF 15 was "top dollar". I should have been scooping them up then at that price instead of pointing and laughing.

 

 

At some point, the getting is no longer good.

 

CGC and the internet is at play, and I'll suggest that these two market forces combined with an aging collector demographic is causing a rapid maturation of this hobby. So, while 1995 may not seem like a long time ago, it's dangerous to assume that the next 14 years are going resemble the last 14.

 

I'm not saying you're doing that, but I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of thinking is at play behind some of the recent surges we've seen.

 

Another thing to consider is that the big guys (Brulato, Schmell, etc.) are still buying. Schmell is still looking to finish an SA X-Men run in all 9.8. I see Brulato at every NY show buying stacks and stacks of HG raw books. And I'm sure there are others. If all the big guys had stopped buying and were trying to sell their collections, I might see your point. Truth is no one knows when we'll hit the ceiling if ever. We all know that collecting is a powerful habit and that is why I believe many of those big guys are still in it.

[VintageComics]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

 

[Aman619]

as long as there's demand for these great collectibles at whatever prices they go for, prices will keep going up. Assuming, no depression hits the thin comics collecting ranks, and a plane doesnt go down with the top ten buyers, or any other odd calamitous eventuality. Im not saying that the demand is a given, just that while it remains strong, prices will keep rising on the scarcer/more valuable books

 

Tim--- great post on the threshhold theory. Its a danger to fixate too strongly on any price level, especially when "expensive" comics were under $1000 for so many years. Maybe when only closeted nerds and geeks were buying them (all of us before it became much cooler of late!) that was a lot of money.... but in 2008, there's a LOT more money sloshing around, and those kids then now have quite a bit of it, and comics are what more of them want to buy with it.

 

 

[ciorac]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

 

Or maybe, some of us just enjoy discussing it? I know I do.

[He11blazer]

AF#15 CGC 5.0 just sold in the sales forum for $10K.

 

Which would you rather have?

[nik]

AF#15 CGC 5.0 just sold in the sales forum for $10K.

 

Which would you rather have?

 

Neither, going to spend the money on a new entertainment room

[MutantKeys]

AF#15 CGC 5.0 just sold in the sales forum for $10K.

 

Which would you rather have?

 

Neither, going to spend the money on a new entertainment room

What kind of entertainment?

[VintageComics]

This thread is just a continuation of the same conversation that has been going on since the 60's.

 

"You paid how much for the comic?"

 

Don't people ever learn?

 

If Action #1 selling for $6000 in the 70's or $20,000 in the 80's was not high why would an AF #15 selling for $200, 000 be high now?

 

Just the same thing over and over ad nauseum...although I guess when people STOP talking about how expensive a comic is then the crash will finally be upon us as that is the way things work...

 

R.

 

 

 

 

 

Or maybe, some of us just enjoy discussing it? I know I do.

 

Hey I like a good discussion too. I just find the down talking a little weak, that's all.

 

R.

 

[nik]

Family oriented

[VintageComics]

AF#15 CGC 5.0 just sold in the sales forum for $10K.

 

Which would you rather have?

 

Neither, going to spend the money on a new entertainment room

What kind of entertainment?

 

This is Nik we're talking about. It's going to be good.

 

[DrWatson]

Family oriented

You could call it a "Firehouse" pole.