TMNT #1 Club 18 18

[Bronty]

The market for TMNT #1 is so thin

 

hogwash. Its thin @ FULL fmv / 5k.

 

At 300 a pop, the market is as broad as the ocean.

 

Like every other comic in existence that is both HTF and in demand.

 

The market for action 1 @ full fmv is damn thin too. At 300 a pop? The pacific ocean.

[Bronty]

Yeah I was doing the math on that earlier. 3275 copies @ 3k average is 10m. At 5k avg is over 16m

 

If all copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. If many copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. And that's assuming all these copies even exist, much less could be sold for an average of $3,000.

 

It's fun to speculate that the boxes would be "worth millions", but it's not realistic. If all 3275 (or thereabouts) copies came on the market at the same time, they may not even be worth $1,000,000. For the boxes to be worth millions, you'd have to have buyers willing to pay millions for them.

 

But that's something we will never know.

 

I've gotta speculate that it is absolutely true that those boxes are worth $1,000,000. Even if every book hit the market at the same time today, you would need a pool of 3,275 individuals willing to pay $300 per copy. Given the popularity of the turtles, I would be shocked if you could not find 3,275 people willing to pay $300 per copy.

 

I imagine you'd be very, very hard pressed to find 3,275 people willing to pay $300 for a copy of TMNT #1 if they were all available at the same time.

 

Remember...that includes every single copy, in every single grade, and there are a ton bunch of restored copies floating around, raw AND slabbed.

 

People just couldn't resist those black magic markers.

 

Bullshizzle. @300 you'd sell every copy without trying. In fact, I bet you might even be able to find a single person to take the stack for the million bucks you're talking about.

 

 

Doubt it.

 

 

At least you were brief this time

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yeah I was doing the math on that earlier. 3275 copies @ 3k average is 10m. At 5k avg is over 16m

 

If all copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. If many copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. And that's assuming all these copies even exist, much less could be sold for an average of $3,000.

 

It's fun to speculate that the boxes would be "worth millions", but it's not realistic. If all 3275 (or thereabouts) copies came on the market at the same time, they may not even be worth $1,000,000. For the boxes to be worth millions, you'd have to have buyers willing to pay millions for them.

 

But that's something we will never know.

 

Sorry to throw sunshine on your rainy parade but all 3275 copies would never come to the market at once.

 

That is correct, as I already stated here:

 

But that's something we will never know

 

In case I wasn't clear, that's what "that's something we will never know" means: not only will all those copies not come to market at once, not even all of those copies exist anymore.

 

There is/was no comic "black monday" when everyone wanted to sell at the same moment in time. The comic book market isn't that efficient.

 

Correct. That's what makes it speculation.

 

Even in "black Monday", there were still buyers....not *everyone* sold.

 

It's no speculation. There are millions of dollars in that picture.

 

No, there is potential, and speculation. There aren't millions of dollars in that picture. There's only potential, and that potential isn't likely even in the nearly impossible scenario of all extant copies coming to the market at once.

 

It's nothing but speculation. The market for TMNT #1 is so thin, even 100 copies coming on to the market at the same time would substantively affect the value of the book.

 

No rain. Just facts.

 

Oh how I love stubborn negativity.

 

There's no negativity here. You are reading that which doesn't exist. Simply expressing a dissenting opinion does not mean "negativity."

 

Also...it takes more than one person to be "stubborn."

 

If you're going to have a discussion, let's save the melodrama and just discuss. There's no need to get upset about it.

 

As bronty said previously, at $300 pretty much every comic collector who has a brain is a buyer of TMNT #1 1st print. That makes that stack worth at least 7 figures.

 

One more time (is this what I label as "stubborn negativity...?): if they were all available right now, a lot of people who would otherwise be buyers at $300 would absolutely pause.

 

Do not misunderstand: demand is built on perception. If it is perceived that there's not a lot of demand (or NO demand) and everyone is, instead, selling, then a lot of people who would otherwise be "no brainer" buyers at $300 would stop and reconsider. If it is perceived that the people who own them now no longer want to own them, for whatever reason...that will play a heavy psychological game on the market, and you probably won't find all those buyers.

 

This is economic philosophy we're discussing, here.

 

It's just a fun point. Don't attach so much absoluteness to it and focus on a glut just to disprove a fact. There is no glut now, nor is there likely to be one with this book.

 

You are, in all probability, correct. And what I would say to you is: don't read "negativity" into this philosophical exercise.

 

It's ok to be disagreed with. Really. It's not the end of the world.

 

The turtles are still in mainstream pop culture and when the 90's kids get into their mid-lives who knows how many tens of millions those 3,275 will be worth.

 

Perhaps. That is speculation, of course...but the generation who grew up with the Turtles is now in their 30's...remember, the Turtles went mainstream in 1990, with the first movie. That was nearly 26 years ago.

 

Those who were born in the 90's may not have the same sort of appreciation for the Turtles.

 

We shall see.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yeah I was doing the math on that earlier. 3275 copies @ 3k average is 10m. At 5k avg is over 16m

 

If all copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. If many copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. And that's assuming all these copies even exist, much less could be sold for an average of $3,000.

 

It's fun to speculate that the boxes would be "worth millions", but it's not realistic. If all 3275 (or thereabouts) copies came on the market at the same time, they may not even be worth $1,000,000. For the boxes to be worth millions, you'd have to have buyers willing to pay millions for them.

 

But that's something we will never know.

 

I've gotta speculate that it is absolutely true that those boxes are worth $1,000,000. Even if every book hit the market at the same time today, you would need a pool of 3,275 individuals willing to pay $300 per copy. Given the popularity of the turtles, I would be shocked if you could not find 3,275 people willing to pay $300 per copy.

 

I imagine you'd be very, very hard pressed to find 3,275 people willing to pay $300 for a copy of TMNT #1 if they were all available at the same time.

 

Remember...that includes every single copy, in every single grade, and there are a ton bunch of restored copies floating around, raw AND slabbed.

 

People just couldn't resist those black magic markers.

 

Bullshizzle. @300 you'd sell every copy without trying. In fact, I bet you might even be able to find a single person to take the stack for the million bucks you're talking about.

 

 

Doubt it.

 

 

At least you were brief this time

 

What, does reading a lot of words hurt your brain...?

 

[Bronty]

 

Do not misunderstand: demand is built on perception. If it is perceived that there's not a lot of demand (or NO demand) and everyone is, instead, selling, then a lot of people who would otherwise be "no brainer" buyers at $300 would stop and reconsider. If it is perceived that the people who own them now no longer want to own them, for whatever reason...that will play a heavy psychological game on the market, and you probably won't find all those buyers.

.

 

Trouble with that is its all such a fairy tale. You're asking us to create this ridiculous scenario. Why are you even bringing it up? Have the turtles offended you personally?

 

Let's review.

 

Pic is posted. Glorious. Implied market capitalization at today's rates is eight figures. Okay.

 

Its fully understood that anything would take a big price hit if everybody is selling. Of course. Same is true of stocks, houses, anything.

 

Its also complete effing fiction

 

I'm looking at the photo saying - wow the market cap on those is 8 figures. You're looking at the photo saying you'd never get that for them all at once.

 

Well, who said anything about that? It would be impossible to get them together again.

 

The point is there's a glorious photo of the time when they were in fact together.

 

And on that note, I'm done. I love ya, but anything would be more productive than this discussion.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The market for TMNT #1 is so thin

 

hogwash. Its thin @ FULL fmv / 5k.

 

Let's put that statement back in its context:

 

"The market for TMNT #1 is so thin, even 100 copies coming on to the market at the same time would substantively affect the value of the book."

 

If 100 copies showed up for sale at the same time, it would have a substantive affect on the value of the rest, until those copies were absorbed.

 

It every single copy that exists did that, it would be a much more dramatic event, with much more dramatic results.

 

At 300 a pop, the market is as broad as the ocean.[/quyote]

 

Yes, NOW, while the market is thin, and there are only a few copies trading hands in any given month. There aren't thousands and thousands of people lining up to pay the "$3,000 avg price" you quoted, because there aren't even that many copies available.

 

If all those copies suddenly became available...for whatever reason...the market would not longer be "as broad as the ocean."

Like every other comic in existence that is both HTF and in demand.

 

3,000+ copies appearing all at once makes the book no longer "HTF", and would have a substantial affect on demand.

 

The market for action 1 @ full fmv is damn thin too. At 300 a pop? The pacific ocean.

 

Yes, and if you saw 30...just 30....copies of Action #1 hit the market at the same time, guess what? It's no longer a million+ dollar book.

 

This isn't rocket science, after all.

[RockMyAmadeus]

well said.

 

Let's create a fictional glut to disprove common sense. Dafuq?

 

Yes, YOU (and GM8) were the ones who created the "fictional glut" by saying you were looking at "several million dollars." That can only be true IF the price were to remain the same while all those books came to market at the same time. I only followed your statements to their logical end.

 

You don't see that, huh...?

 

Point is, they are worth a crapload.

 

They are worth a "crapload" precisely because of supply AND demand. No demand (that is, all copies showing up at once) means they are no longer worth "a crapload."

 

This is basic economics.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Do not misunderstand: demand is built on perception. If it is perceived that there's not a lot of demand (or NO demand) and everyone is, instead, selling, then a lot of people who would otherwise be "no brainer" buyers at $300 would stop and reconsider. If it is perceived that the people who own them now no longer want to own them, for whatever reason...that will play a heavy psychological game on the market, and you probably won't find all those buyers.

.

 

Trouble with that is its all such a fairy tale. You're asking us to create this ridiculous scenario. Why are you even bringing it up? Have the turtles offended you personally?

 

Why are you making this personal? This is a philosophical exercise. Are you allowing a philosophical exercise to influence your emotions?

 

I'm "bringing it up" because you brought it up.

 

Let's review.

 

Pic is posted. Glorious. Implied market capitalization at today's rates is eight figures. Okay.

 

"Market capitalization" does not work with collectibles.

 

Its fully understood that anything would take a big price hit if everybody is selling. Of course. Same is true of stocks, houses, anything.

 

Its also complete effing fiction

 

Of course, which is what I said in my first reply. It's something we will never know.

 

I'm looking at the photo saying - wow the market cap on those is 8 figures. You're looking at the photo saying you'd never get that for them all at once.

 

Well, who said anything about that? It would be impossible to get them together again.

 

Because your basic premise...that the "market cap on those is 8 figures"...is faulty from the outset.

 

You began with a faulty premise, and now you're not pleased because someone pointed out the flaw...?

 

That doesn't make much sense.

 

The point is there's a glorious photo of the time when they were in fact together.

 

Yes, a point I made earlier in the thread.

 

And on that note, I'm done. I love ya, but anything would be more productive than this discussion.

 

Agreed, for your sake.

 

 

[oakman29]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

[GM8]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Yeah, his trail of thought is just like banging your head against the wall. Brutal.

[GM8]

 

There's no negativity here. You are reading that which doesn't exist. Simply expressing a dissenting opinion does not mean "negativity."

 

Also...it takes more than one person to be "stubborn."

 

If you're going to have a discussion, let's save the melodrama and just discuss. There's no need to get upset about it.

 

The only one upset is the unicorn who's frustrated trying to even follow your logic.

 

One more time (is this what I label as "stubborn negativity...?): if they were all available right now, a lot of people who would otherwise be buyers at $300 would absolutely pause.

 

Do not misunderstand: demand is built on perception. If it is perceived that there's not a lot of demand (or NO demand) and everyone is, instead, selling, then a lot of people who would otherwise be "no brainer" buyers at $300 would stop and reconsider. If it is perceived that the people who own them now no longer want to own them, for whatever reason...that will play a heavy psychological game on the market, and you probably won't find all those buyers.

 

This is economic philosophy we're discussing, here.

 

If that book started to all of the sudden sell for $300, the comic market is so inefficient and slow that it would take weeks or months before the buying frenzy would slow down for all the stragglers to think it through and "perceive". I'm sure you'd be there on the sidelines saying "gee, is this world-famous comic with a micro print run still worth it? Hmmm..." You'd miss out on the greatest buying opportunity in a generation.

 

The fact is that there is no bad news to stop the inevitable climb in value for this book. There are pauses for recessions and even backtracking during those times but make no mistake the direction is ultimately up.

 

This glut talk was all initiated by you. The original comment I made on the boxes was just a factual statement. The $300 was thrown in to show you how it was factual and how nonsensical your trip to the weeds was but now you've blamed this whole glut talk on the opposing view. That's just silliness.

 

You are, in all probability, correct. And what I would say to you is: don't read "negativity" into this philosophical exercise.

 

It's ok to be disagreed with. Really. It's not the end of the world.

 

I know of course, but ok thanks for reassuring me. I feel better now.

 

Perhaps. That is speculation, of course...but the generation who grew up with the Turtles is now in their 30's...remember, the Turtles went mainstream in 1990, with the first movie. That was nearly 26 years ago.

 

Those who were born in the 90's may not have the same sort of appreciation for the Turtles.

 

We shall see.

 

I agree with that mostly.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

There's no negativity here. You are reading that which doesn't exist. Simply expressing a dissenting opinion does not mean "negativity."

 

Also...it takes more than one person to be "stubborn."

 

If you're going to have a discussion, let's save the melodrama and just discuss. There's no need to get upset about it.

 

The only one upset is the unicorn who's frustrated trying to even follow your logic.

 

Why are comments like this necessary? Do they advance the discussion? Or do they just create and advance animosity?

 

My logic is clear and understandable. There's nothing magic about it, there's nothing terribly difficult about it, and I certainly didn't invent it.

 

One more time (is this what I label as "stubborn negativity...?): if they were all available right now, a lot of people who would otherwise be buyers at $300 would absolutely pause.

 

Do not misunderstand: demand is built on perception. If it is perceived that there's not a lot of demand (or NO demand) and everyone is, instead, selling, then a lot of people who would otherwise be "no brainer" buyers at $300 would stop and reconsider. If it is perceived that the people who own them now no longer want to own them, for whatever reason...that will play a heavy psychological game on the market, and you probably won't find all those buyers.

 

This is economic philosophy we're discussing, here.

 

If that book started to all of the sudden sell for $300, the comic market is so inefficient and slow that it would take weeks or months before the buying frenzy would slow down for all the stragglers to think it through and "perceive". I'm sure you'd be there on the sidelines saying "gee, is this world-famous comic with a micro print run still worth it? Hmmm..." You'd miss out on the greatest buying opportunity in a generation.

 

You've just changed the parameters of the thought exercise. The argument is not about the book "all of the sudden selling for $300."

 

The argument is "that picture contains several million dollars worth of comics."

 

When you start with your premise, that you're looking at several million dollars worth of comics, you have to necessarily follow with whether or not there are buyers for those books at several million dollars.

 

Eventually? Yes, over time, it's certainly possible that those books would all be worth millions of dollars. But they're not worth millions of dollars right now, so you can't say that we are looking at several million dollars worth of books, the way I can post a picture of 3,000 ounces of gold and say we are looking at several million dollars worth of gold.

 

We are looking at potentially several million dollars worth of books.

 

And that's the key to this entire philosophical exercise.

 

If it were possible to have all those books together at one time NOW, (of course, we know that's not possible, which is why this is a thought exercise), you would not be able to get several million dollars for them.

 

You would have to carefully dole them out, slowly, and allow the market to absorb them...and, in the meantime, hope that the bottom doesn't fall out until you're done.

 

If, instead, you tried to sell them all for $300 each, all at once, with a Buy It Now listing for 3,000+ copies...you'd sell many, without a doubt. But it would not be very soon before the market would start asking questions...."what grade are these books?" "Are they restored?" "Why are you selling them all for such a "low" price?" "Is there something wrong with these books?"

 

And, you'd still have less than a million dollars, even if you were able to sell all 3,275 of them, not the "worth literally millions" from your original statement:

 

Who knew those boxes stacked into a corner would be worth literally millions?

 

They aren't worth "millions", literally or not.

 

 

The fact is that there is no bad news to stop the inevitable climb in value for this book. There are pauses for recessions and even backtracking during those times but make no mistake the direction is ultimately up.

 

Ok. This doesn't have any relevance to the discussion at hand, but let's entertain it for a second:

 

In 1984, this book became very popular, in a very short amount of time. By 1986 it was a $150+ book, 100 times its original cover price.

 

Then, the B&W explosion crashed, and this book, along with the rest, dropped significantly in value.

 

But, it was the one book that came out of the whole experience that had some legs. And, by 1989, the Turtles were appearing in video games, and then along came the movies, and the book was a fairly reliable $100 or so book.

 

Then, the mid-90's crash came, and the Turtles fell out of favor for quite some time.

 

By the late 90's, you could find the book for $50 or less. I bought my high grade copy for $66 shipped off of eBay in early 1999.

 

That remained true until the mid-2000s. In fact, the first Universal slabbed 1st print isn't recorded on GPA until 2004.

 

In fact, Turtles was so neglected, the first copy wasn't submitted until late 2003/early 2004.

 

http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/search/comicid/5000360

 

It would be a mistake to say ANY collectible has an "inevitable climb." It's illegal to suggest that securities will have an "inevitable climb", because "past performance does not guarantee future results." Yet, in the comics market, people say these things all the time, and no one questions it.

 

This glut talk was all initiated by you.

 

No, that was initiated when you said those boxes were "worth literally millions."

 

Figuratively, maybe. Literally? No.

 

The original comment I made on the boxes was just a factual statement.

 

As I have shown, that statement is not factual. Those boxes are NOT "worth literally millions", even if it were possible to have them all in one place at one time again.

 

The $300 was thrown in to show you how it was factual and how nonsensical your trip to the weeds was but now you've blamed this whole glut talk on the opposing view. That's just silliness.

 

On the contrary...the "silliness" is saying those boxes are "worth literally millions."

[RockMyAmadeus]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Yeah, his trail of thought is just like banging your head against the wall. Brutal.

 

My trail of thought isn't difficult to follow, and comments like this don't do anything but create animosity, without good cause.

[RockMyAmadeus]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Oh my GOD! oakman29, don't you ever get tired of complaining about what other people choose to post about?

 

 

If you don't like what I have to say, just ignore me. I don't sit there and complain about the things you say that I find annoying...what gives you the right to do that about anyone else?

 

Your own "logic" fails, because, as always, people who makes comments like yours completely ignore the fact that there are other people involved in the discussion as well.

 

 

 

[oakman29]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Oh my GOD! oakman29, don't you ever get tired of complaining about what other people choose to post about?

 

 

If you don't like what I have to say, just ignore me. I don't sit there and complain about the things you say that I find annoying...what gives you the right to do that about anyone else?

 

Your own "logic" fails, because, as always, people who makes comments like yours completely ignore the fact that there are other people involved in the discussion as well.

 

 

 

[Icculus308win]

TMNT #1s are cool

 

[Jeffro.]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Yeah, his trail of thought is just like banging your head against the wall. Brutal.

 

I'm sure this will fall on deaf ears but the ignore feature is something you both should consider. But hey, why do that when you can be abusive? So much more positive for the boards.

[GM8]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Yeah, his trail of thought is just like banging your head against the wall. Brutal.

 

I'm sure this will fall on deaf ears but the ignore feature is something you both should consider. But hey, why do that when you can be abusive? So much more positive for the boards.

 

Commenting on someone's arguments or logic is a far cry from calling them names. My words weren't abusive but if anyone actually cried, I apologize.

[Jeffro.]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Yeah, his trail of thought is just like banging your head against the wall. Brutal.

 

I'm sure this will fall on deaf ears but the ignore feature is something you both should consider. But hey, why do that when you can be abusive? So much more positive for the boards.

 

Commenting on someone's arguments or logic is a far cry from calling them names. My words weren't abusive but if anyone actually cried, I apologize.

 

Nice and smarmy. Well played. You should be proud of yourself. The advice about the ignore feature stands but far too few people will use it.

[oakman29]

On my GOD! RMA don't you ever get tired of grinding your "logic" into the Proverbial ground?

 

 

Yeah, his trail of thought is just like banging your head against the wall. Brutal.

 

I'm sure this will fall on deaf ears but the ignore feature is something you both should consider. But hey, why do that when you can be abusive? So much more positive for the boards.

 

Commenting on someone's arguments or logic is a far cry from calling them names. My words weren't abusive but if anyone actually cried, I apologize.

 

Nice and smarmy. Well played. You should be proud of yourself. The advice about the ignore feature stands but far too few people will use it.

 

I just wanna talk Turtles,and want to avoid the I'm better, smarter,wiser than you wall of text.I do however like RMA so why put him on an otherwise antiquated ignore function.