So what do you think the future of comics holds in store??/

[comixcroz]

I'm considering a very expensive purchase and it got me thinking about the short and long term future of comics. I'd like some speculation on where the hobby is going.

 

What do you think the prices will be like in 10, 20, 30 or even 40 years from now?

 

Will the grails hold up in time? AF15, Action 1, TEC 27, FF1, etc...

 

The future of high grade commons?

 

Do you think prices will continue to rise sharply? OR do you think prices will go stagnant? OR will prices eventually DROP hard?

 

I know I should not be looking at these funny books as investments - but it's hard to not think about the future when you're about to drop some serious bucks!!

[djpinkpanther67]

I don't collect for a profit, but I DO want to make sure I purchase books that I won't suffer a loss on if the time comes that I would HAVE to sell them

I have never really noticed a drop in prices, just a steady increase, as well as the occasional upward spike as we have seen recently...

Can't really see a decline in the value, but will be salivating and ready to buy if they do

Good luck if you get what we spoke about, Jason...I think it would be a wise purchase

Thomas

[thehumantorch]

I have no idea where the market will go from here. I don't buy to with the intention of reselling but I think a person would be crazy to spend significant money on a comic without at least considering the future value.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

high grade CGC keys.

[COI]

Was the pm I sent you last week not adequate?

 

Seriously though, here it is for everyone to see and as a reminder for you :

 

Jason, basically, I don't think prices are sustainable. They are in the immediate future, but I'm 28 and looking into the long term, past a decade or so. There has been a perfect storm for the SA and early BA market. It's a combination of CGC, the internet, Ebay and the various online auction houses TOGETHER that has created the perfect conditions for exponential growth. But at some point, when the baby boomers are out and they take their cash with them, the floor is going to give on the vast majority of books. Keys and scarce books may fair well, but random non-key books in 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8 can't possibly maintain their value.

 

Talk to one of these guys who has one of the better SA collections in the world (like Ghost Town) and he'll admit that if he had to collect over again, there's no way he could afford what he has now. Guys like him had a good eye and were buying raw in the 90's when these books were at the ground floor. Ghost Town remarked that he's spent more on grading fees for some of his SA 9.6's (including an ASM 42 in 9.6) than he did on the books themselves! He also admitted that if he had to do it over again, he'd probably stick to bronze since there's no way he could rebuild. And we're talking about a guy who owns a 9.2 AF 15 and a 9.4 ASM 1.

 

I don't think we're going to see these "perfect storm" conditions again in the hobby, so buying now is buying high. I don't think there will be enough collectors in my age range who will be able to absorb all the books currently on the market when the boomers cash out. This is especially true of the last couple of years, with pressing creating more HG labels than ever. Who is going to absorb all of these 9.4s and 9.6s at 10-30X guide when the current owners sell? Where is the money going to come from? I have posed these questions on the boards several times, and no one has an answer for it.

 

Again, this is just my take on things, unclouded by emotion or "love of the hobby". My advice to anyone who will listen is to treat this hobby exactly as a hobby and not an investment vehicle. Spend what you can afford to lose. I'm not saying these books will be worthless, but if you buy as if they are, and buy them the way you would buy a video game, DVD, or dinner at a nice restaurant, you can't lose.

 

Time will tell if I'm right or not, but logically speaking I can't see an alternative.

 

 

[comixcroz]

Was the pm I sent you last week not adequate?

 

Seriously though, here it is for everyone to see and as a reminder for you :

 

No - it was the best response I've ever gotten when asking that question. You are definetely informed in the hobby, that is for sure.

 

I was just hoping to hear from a bunch of different people and hear some other speculations.

 

So do you miss your old collection? Is your buddy enjoying his new books?

[batman_fan]

Was the pm I sent you last week not adequate?

 

Seriously though, here it is for everyone to see and as a reminder for you :

 

Jason, basically, I don't think prices are sustainable. They are in the immediate future, but I'm 28 and looking into the long term, past a decade or so. There has been a perfect storm for the SA and early BA market. It's a combination of CGC, the internet, Ebay and the various online auction houses TOGETHER that has created the perfect conditions for exponential growth. But at some point, when the baby boomers are out and they take their cash with them, the floor is going to give on the vast majority of books. Keys and scarce books may fair well, but random non-key books in 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8 can't possibly maintain their value.

 

Talk to one of these guys who has one of the better SA collections in the world (like Ghost Town) and he'll admit that if he had to collect over again, there's no way he could afford what he has now. Guys like him had a good eye and were buying raw in the 90's when these books were at the ground floor. Ghost Town remarked that he's spent more on grading fees for some of his SA 9.6's (including an ASM 42 in 9.6) than he did on the books themselves! He also admitted that if he had to do it over again, he'd probably stick to bronze since there's no way he could rebuild. And we're talking about a guy who owns a 9.2 AF 15 and a 9.4 ASM 1.

 

I don't think we're going to see these "perfect storm" conditions again in the hobby, so buying now is buying high. I don't think there will be enough collectors in my age range who will be able to absorb all the books currently on the market when the boomers cash out. This is especially true of the last couple of years, with pressing creating more HG labels than ever. Who is going to absorb all of these 9.4s and 9.6s at 10-30X guide when the current owners sell? Where is the money going to come from? I have posed these questions on the boards several times, and no one has an answer for it.

 

Again, this is just my take on things, unclouded by emotion or "love of the hobby". My advice to anyone who will listen is to treat this hobby exactly as a hobby and not an investment vehicle. Spend what you can afford to lose. I'm not saying these books will be worthless, but if you buy as if they are, and buy them the way you would buy a video game, DVD, or dinner at a nice restaurant, you can't lose.

 

Time will tell if I'm right or not, but logically speaking I can't see an alternative.

 

 

I think you are spot on. We have actually seen a shift in prices. One just has to look at what was hot in th 80s to see how things have changed. There was a time when pre-hero books were incredibly hot. Now they sell for under guide. Almost all Fawcetts fit here as well. Could never happen to the cream of the crop like Batman and Superman right? Look at the sell prices of the 1940 New York Fair or Wolrd's Finest. Times change and so do people's taste. A good comparison (although not perfect) is the pulp market, or animated cell market.

[TSwift25]

I think, with very limited exception, the bubble is going to burst on the stupid money spent on 9.6 and 9.8's.

 

I also think this upcoming comic connect auction is going to offer a real referendum on the immediate future of the blue chip market. That's not to say I'd advocate dumping those AF 15's, Showcase 4's or Superman 1's, but you really might have to say 'ok, so there is a ceiling.'

 

Ultimately, I don't think that in the near future you're going to see the gold, silver and select bronze prices plummet, but I do think that we're certainly nearing the end of the almost perfectly liquid comic market. Even 6 months ago, if you had a mega key and it was priced fairly, it sold nearly instantly. From my perspective, it does not seem to be the case anymore. Books are selling, make no doubt about that, but if you needed to cash out that high end book, you might have to sit on it for a month or two longer than you would have in the past, and that has to be a concern.

[COI]

So do you miss your old collection? Is your buddy enjoying his new books?

 

Nope, don't miss them. I hope Alex is happy. NO REFUNDS.

[Flemmings]

Was the pm I sent you last week not adequate?

 

Seriously though, here it is for everyone to see and as a reminder for you :

 

Jason, basically, I don't think prices are sustainable. They are in the immediate future, but I'm 28 and looking into the long term, past a decade or so. There has been a perfect storm for the SA and early BA market. It's a combination of CGC, the internet, Ebay and the various online auction houses TOGETHER that has created the perfect conditions for exponential growth. But at some point, when the baby boomers are out and they take their cash with them, the floor is going to give on the vast majority of books. Keys and scarce books may fair well, but random non-key books in 9.4, 9.6, and 9.8 can't possibly maintain their value.

 

Talk to one of these guys who has one of the better SA collections in the world (like Ghost Town) and he'll admit that if he had to collect over again, there's no way he could afford what he has now. Guys like him had a good eye and were buying raw in the 90's when these books were at the ground floor. Ghost Town remarked that he's spent more on grading fees for some of his SA 9.6's (including an ASM 42 in 9.6) than he did on the books themselves! He also admitted that if he had to do it over again, he'd probably stick to bronze since there's no way he could rebuild. And we're talking about a guy who owns a 9.2 AF 15 and a 9.4 ASM 1.

 

I don't think we're going to see these "perfect storm" conditions again in the hobby, so buying now is buying high. I don't think there will be enough collectors in my age range who will be able to absorb all the books currently on the market when the boomers cash out. This is especially true of the last couple of years, with pressing creating more HG labels than ever. Who is going to absorb all of these 9.4s and 9.6s at 10-30X guide when the current owners sell? Where is the money going to come from? I have posed these questions on the boards several times, and no one has an answer for it.

 

Again, this is just my take on things, unclouded by emotion or "love of the hobby". My advice to anyone who will listen is to treat this hobby exactly as a hobby and not an investment vehicle. Spend what you can afford to lose. I'm not saying these books will be worthless, but if you buy as if they are, and buy them the way you would buy a video game, DVD, or dinner at a nice restaurant, you can't lose.

 

Time will tell if I'm right or not, but logically speaking I can't see an alternative.

 

 

 

 

I agree with you. Within 40 years the prices will go down dramatically. I'm the oldest of 5 and I have 2 brothers. Neither one of them are interested in comics. I only have one friend who is interested in comics, but he will not spend over $50 for one. When all the old timers die out there will not be anyone to buy the comics. Comics are being catered to adults and no new fans are coming in. A comic is only worth as much as someone will pay.

 

In 40 years when I'm 65 I don't anyone will be willing to pay 10 mil+ for an Action comics #1. Because Superman will most likely be obsolete himself. Most key comics sell because of nostalgia, i.e. I loved Spider-man as a kid so I would like to own his first appearance. But to most kids, who love Spider-man now. They love him because of the movies or they love Tobey Maguire. They can careless about a comic. So when they supply (Action Comics #1) is low and the demand (No more fans) is low. Your basically just holding a worthless 10 cent book that someone paid millions for. If anyone disagrees I would like to hear it. But this is just my opinion.

[ciorac]

I think everything is just fine. I really do. Folks have been predicting a crash for almost two decades. I don't buy into alarmist theories.

 

Record prices are realized on a regular basis these days.

 

Here is a picture from Lauren's NYC Con thread, does this look like waning interest?

 

[trmoore54]

I just got the February Auction Heritage Catalogue in the mail today...and I've expressed this before, but for starters I would have to think that the non-key GAs will really have to slide in value...there are still (just barely) people alive that would have purchased these at newstand and grew up loving them...and to a certain extent I would have to imagine certain titles are perhaps supported by maybe a few hundred people...their kids didn't necessarily love all these titles and moved on to titles of their own...at some point these books will become more and more just old historical books...certainly of value, but a flat or declining one at that and certainly not investment material...(not talking about SuperMan or BatMan)

 

SA and some BA Titles/Characters have been cemented in the culture with successful movies and other marketing/merchandising...these will remain strong I think for the next 50 years and beyond, but I think Capt of Industry has it pegged, nothing can sustain infinite 10% annual increase in value...and when whole collections get "dumped" for baby boomer retirement prices could well flatten out...

 

The Top 100 or so, hell, all keys I think will remain strong (if you were born after WWII) through our lifetimes...ASM and BatMan and the like could well be the exception and continue into the stratosphere against all normal economic histories...

 

I'm gonna be curious about the OA Market, where people are paying crazy prices...significant more relative cash than many comic genres...but I believe to sustain this it will have to be supported by the greater Art and Museum communities as well...but we're seeing more of that...

 

The one other factor would be a steady increase in "non-collector" buyers, fueling the market through their broker's advice, and buying slabs in lieu of kruggerands...

 

Hell, who knows (?)

[COI]

To me, the numbers don't add up. You have a supply of 9.4s and 9.6s trading for multiples of guide, with records being set at every turn, not to mention the larger supply of existing 9.0s and 9.2s of the same books. Many of those 9.0s and 9.2s will also realize high prices, since they are arguably more ideal purchases for those who are looking to "maximize" or "potentialize" and, as a result, many of those high priced 9.0s and 9.2s will become 9.4s and 9.6s. But the perception of value of ALL 9.0s and 9.2s, even those that aren't pressing candidates, will go up. After the last C-Link auction, who's going to want to give up their Avengers #16 in 9.0 for only $500? The race for better labels may be exciting to watch, but the market is actually cannibalizing itself.

 

 

So you have record prices being paid, and high grade supplies INCREASING to match those prices, at a time where those who are MOST emotionally attached to these books are at their peak spending levels, are motivated by "potential", and enjoy unparalleled access to the material they're looking for. We're in the eye of the perfect storm, and every storm inevitably passes.

[Flemmings]

I think everything is just fine. I really do. Folks have been predicting a crash for almost two decades. I don't buy into alarmist theories.

 

Record prices are realized on a regular basis these days.

 

Here is a picture from Lauren's NYC Con thread, does this look like waning interest?

 

 

 

Yes. I don't see a 10 year old in sight.

[COI]

I think everything is just fine. I really do. Folks have been predicting a crash for almost two decades. I don't buy into alarmist theories.

 

Record prices are realized on a regular basis these days.

 

Here is a picture from Lauren's NYC Con thread, does this look like waning interest?

 

 

Not sure if I see the correlation between a large crowd of costume wearing, autograph seeking, convention goers, and the high end CGC market, but I'll play.

 

Also from Lauren's thread:

 

 

Four of the more prominet signs in this pic are SEGA, ATARI, THQ and BANDAI NAMCO; video game companies. And I see a lot of costumes and enthusiasm for POP CULTURE, not high grade Marvels in 9.6 from 1968 selling for 13x guide.

[Claudio]

I agree with you. Within 40 years the prices will go down dramatically. I'm the oldest of 5 and I have 2 brothers. Neither one of them are interested in comics. I only have one friend who is interested in comics, but he will not spend over $50 for one. When all the old timers die out there will not be anyone to buy the comics. Comics are being catered to adults and no new fans are coming in. A comic is only worth as much as someone will pay.

 

In 40 years when I'm 65 I don't anyone will be willing to pay 10 mil+ for an Action comics #1. Because Superman will most likely be obsolete himself. Most key comics sell because of nostalgia, i.e. I loved Spider-man as a kid so I would like to own his first appearance. But to most kids, who love Spider-man now. They love him because of the movies or they love Tobey Maguire. They can careless about a comic. So when they supply (Action Comics #1) is low and the demand (No more fans) is low. Your basically just holding a worthless 10 cent book that someone paid millions for. If anyone disagrees I would like to hear it. But this is just my opinion.

I completely agree with you. Action 1 will be worthless 4 or 5 decades from now!

 

[porcupine48]

I buy them and read them,and slowly fill in my wants,I get affordable grades,and hope they go up at least enough to make some money back in the future...i've found that i've always been able to exchange my hot,modern comics for great deals in older,bronze age ,silver age comics in reader condition,because people just seem to be having a killer time selling anything from the back issue dept...even alot of the 'wall comics' at my local shop just seem to sit and sit... well the 'variants' and other hot issues seem to fly out

priced plus plus..

hopefully this newer generation of collectors will be interested in searching out the roots

of what got them started..

somebody's gotta buy my old 'dakota north' books one day

p

[Bronty]

naturally action 1 will do just fine but will anyone want random SA books from non-key titles in vg? Does anyone even want those books now? Will anyone want 9.0s of *virtually anything* from the last thirty years for anything more than a buck? Those books are pretty much landfill already and they sure as heck aren't going up anytime soon. You can't even sell those books on ebay, it'll cost more to ship them than they are worth!

 

I think what gets lost in the talk of record prices for primo material is that the value of most people's collections (not talking about people here necessarily so much as just 30-40 year old Average Joe comic collector who never bought the "right" material as most people did not) has gone down over the last 10 years. Those thousands of dollars spent on newstand books and random vf is gone, baby, gone.

 

And what does that imply? That the "safe" bets (if one is at least partially interested in getting some half decent return on the investment) are high grade cgc books? Well mess if the insanity in that part of the market is what's safe then count me out.

 

Restored mid grade books are priced well and look nice, but there is a double stigma that limits their value potential.

 

Add all that up and frankly you'd have to be an insufficiently_thoughtful_person to invest in comics. And their value as collectibles is so high that if you want to have any kind of decent collection, it IS an investment whether you like it or not.

 

With all these barriers facing a new entrant, I just don't see how it can last in a meaningful way once the current generation is gone. The hobby will have to boil down to titles like superman, batman, spiderman, and ff with only the very best getting good prices.

[porcupine48]

I remember in the mid eighties when 'bronze age "comics were landfill,and I bought up

a bunch in high grade...dealers thought they would never be worth anything..I know things are so different now,but there is always hope...nostalgia is a powerful thing!

[COI]

Jason, with all my rambling, I forgot to address your reason for starting this thread. If you're considering an expensive purchase, and asking this question in order to help you rationalize going forward with it, my advice would be not to do it. If you have to sweat over it, trust me when I say that the feeling of finally owning the book isn't worth the stress. There are exceptions, and maybe it's different for you, but that's been my experience.

 

It's easy to get carried away, especially hanging around here where there are a ton of knowledgeable collectors with some amazing collections. From what I can gather, however, most of those people who have "high end" collections can be classified as one of the following "types":

 

1) They were collecting within their means, over a long period of time, and accumulated many of their books, or books they sold to GET their current books, in a gradual and affordable manner. Many of these collectors can justify spending big bucks on individual books because their overall collection (portfolio) has gained enough to compensate for "overpaying" now.

 

2) They're spending well within their means. For some people, spending 5K or even 50K on books is no big deal. This collector is obviously in the minority, but they do exist.

 

3) They're a "dealing collector". They fund their collection by buying and selling books. They may have started selling books they've had for years to get the funds(like in ex.1), or maybe they started in the business recently in order to pay for their collection. Either way it's doable if you're willing to put the time in and are savvy enough to navigate the market.

 

4) They're investing, even if they don't admit it. A large amount of their net worth is tied up into comics, or they may even be in debt for them. Basically, they're buying as much as they can, and sometimes more. These people exist in large numbers, but for obvious reasons don't like to announce themselves.

 

Obviously this doesn't cover every individual, but it's based on what I've observed in the "high end" market over the last several years.

 

Type 1 and 2 are obviously going to be the least affected by a crash. These are the hobby's mainstays; the people most likely to continue collecting for a long period of time, uninterrupted. These are the kind of people who are able to produce scan after scan of jaw-dropping stuff that you won't see on Ebay the next day, or consigned to CL.

 

Since you're my age and the ship has sailed for type 1, my advice is to be type 2. Don't have millions of dollars? Not necessary in order to operate the way this type operates. Just spend what you can afford to lose. If you really want expensive books, save up "petty cash" until it's no longer petty, and be content with quality over quantity.

 

But that's me. I enjoy taking risks, but I'll do so in other arenas where I see more potential for dividends. I don't like buying at the top.

 

That's my