Do Historical Market Trends Indicate it is Time to Sell?

[14 of spades]

Hi folks

 

I was curious about what the literature had to say about markets trends as pertaining to collectibles. I found a Google preview of this book:

 

At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market

by Robert R. Prechter Jr.

 

Preview Here

 

Although the book is about financial markets, interestingly, Chapter 19 talks about collectibles. I think if you're into the "value" aspect of collectibles, it's worth reading.

 

I've taken the time to take screen captures, and post all the available content here.

[14 of spades]

The remaining images.

[14 of spades]

What I get from reading this is three things:

 

1. A historically unprecedented run-up in prices is always followed by a fall in prices.

2. Based on market trends alone, "Elliott Wave Theorists" correctly predicted the coin-market crash.

3. It's best to pay attention to market trends.

 

Another thing I thought was interesting and have never seen anywhere else, was the theory that a divergence in prices between graded and non-graded material is an augur of an eventual crash.

 

The key graph being this one:

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

I can't help but think you are on to something; particularly with the premium being paid for ultra high grade graded books.

 

Thanks for posting, very interesting.

[thehumantorch]

Interesting, thanks for the thread.

 

It doesn't make sense to me that ultra high grade SA comics have been selling for insane multiples of previous recorded sales during a time of financial difficulty. Mid and lower grade books certainly don't share that trend and I would imagine that if we charted it we would find a correlation to Figure 19-2.

[DiceX]

I hope the prices fall soon. It makes the buying dollar more powerful.

 

 

[fantastic_four]

1. A historically unprecedented run-up in prices is always followed by a fall in prices.

 

I'm not sure this has been true throughout the history of the comic book market. When the Edgar Church books hit market, people paid unprecedented prices for them. Did prices fall after this? After Dave Anderson paid $50K for the Church Action 1, did subsequent Action prices decline? If prices on keys really declined following unprecedented jumps, they wouldn't be at the very high levels that many of them are at today.

 

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

[conditionfreak]

Answer: yes.

 

Have you seen prices on sweet books, on this forum, just today? More than reasonable and below what recent precedence would indicate. I can see it coming on everything except the ultra primo high grade stuff.

[14 of spades]

I'm not sure this has been true throughout the history of the comic book market. When the Edgar Church books hit market, people paid unprecedented prices for them. Did prices fall after this? After Dave Anderson paid $50K for the Church Action 1, did subsequent Action prices decline? If prices on keys really declined following unprecedented jumps, they wouldn't be at the very high levels that many of them are at today.

 

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

 

I'm not sure about the answers to your question as it is not my theory. A possibility is this:

 

Dave Anderson was one person spending lots of money on a few comic books. It was not a pervasive full-population increase in activity/purchasing by everyone in the comic book collecting population.

 

The graph above seems to imply the run-up in prices and money spent was being paid for by many people. I think there's a difference. Dave Anderson paid a lot - but it was only him.

 

In retrospect, we now know the reason why he succeeded (i.e. he didn't take a loss) --> the books were undervalued at the time and no one else was spending the money he was spending to buy them. A classic example of "buying low".

[14 of spades]

the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K

 

[the blob]

I can see it coming on everything except the ultra primo high grade stuff.

---------------

 

But that is the stuff that has seen the most dramatic insane increases.

 

A VG+ copy of Spiderman 6 has not.

[the blob]

Mid and lower grade books certainly don't share that trend and I would imagine that if we charted it we would find a correlation to Figure 19-2.

---------------

 

These books have been flat for a while, maybe going up along with inflation, putting aside a few keys and what have you. There's no reason for these in particular to crash other than general economic realities of people having less money.

[Guardian Comics]

the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K

 

 

Seemed like a perfect time to mention an FF #12 9.4 popped up on the 'Link today for 55k.

 

Jim

[bronze_rules]

That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions regarding

the market.

 

That being said, I have already posited in other threads that I personally believe UHG collectibles are in a hyperinflation induced flee to assets bubble. And if my belief proves correct, well, we all knows what happens to bubbles -- eventually. Question is when.

 

If you're holding the hot potato in a frenzy, it's a good idea to toss it earlier than later, IMO.

But that's just me. I also don't believe the surge in high grade prices are due to sentimental collectors who lock them away in closets forever; rather, I think it's deep pockets chasing somewhat tangible and safe assets during a crises that reeks of hyper-inflation on the horizon, as well as uncertainty regarding a fragile economic system being patched together with band-aids all across the bow.

[14 of spades]

That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions regarding the market.

 

If I'm not mistaken, the author of the book didn't predict the coin crash - he referenced another theorist's (Elliott Wave) prediction that it would based on market principles.

[bronze_rules]

That author has an absolutely horrible track record in making predictions regarding the market.

 

If I'm not mistaken, the author of the book didn't predict the coin crash - he referenced another theorist's (Elliott Wave) prediction that it would based on market principles.

 

You're mistaken. He referenced the elliot wave theorist right there in your post 1 excerpt.

He is the principle author for that publication. It's just a newsletter to make additional income off his flawed ideas.

 

It is true that he attributes his ideas about elliot waves to the originator of that (arguably flawed ) theory, R.N. Elliot (long deceased), but that is another issue that has been debated for eons. Like debating religion; you won't get a certain answer from either camp, since it is so open to hazy interpretations.

[awe4one]

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

 

It will only take a very few people to leave the hobby for prices on all HG comics, to include the keys, to fall dramatically. What we don't know is if these people, who have been paying ultra high prices, are collectors or speculators. If it's the latter, then watch out...

 

Jim

[14 of spades]

You're mistaken. He referenced the elliot wave theorist right there in your post 1 excerpt.

He is the principle author for that publication. It's just a newsletter to make additional income off his flawed ideas.

 

So I guess I am. But it seems he predicted the coin crash.

[Dale Roberts]

So while this statement is likely true of the market as a whole, I'm not convinced yet that it applies to key issues. However, some of the individual prices being paid for certain issues, with the FF 12 CGC 9.4 that went for 76K as a prime example, will definitely follow this pattern and not be repeated for reasons I've stated so many times of late that I hesitate to state them again lest I be run out of town. :makepoint:

 

It will only take a very few people to leave the hobby for prices on all HG comics, to include the keys, to fall dramatically. What we don't know is if these people, who have been paying ultra high prices, are collectors or speculators. If it's the latter, then watch out...

 

Jim

 

You can't say this with any certainty. Speaking of speculating.....

[bronze_rules]

You're mistaken. He referenced the elliot wave theorist right there in your post 1 excerpt.

He is the principle author for that publication. It's just a newsletter to make additional income off his flawed ideas.

 

So I guess I am. But it seems he predicted the coin crash.

 

Statistics is your friend-- get to know it. He also predicted a dozen other things that didn't happen. Eventually, you'll get familiar with the terms "cherry picking" and "hindsight is 20/20."

 

Just like all the (for profit) newsletters that advertise-- had you bought cisco when we recommended it in 1990, you would have made 10,0000% return!!!! Buy our rag and profit like we did (yeah, right... off subscriptions)! They conveniently forget to mention the thousand other picks that didn't do so well.